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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 5, 2024

[ Monday, March 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 6, 2024 ]

DAY 157 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 12.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.141
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -29

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024157-12826.6599412.2700219.46498163.662730416670.0499999999999551.037.898.92TT-5.34006-29.3400665422.59341476203 69.1627921160570.1413337064647316 1114126WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024157-12826.6599412.2700219.46498163.662730416670.0499999999999551.037.898.92TT-5.34006-29.3400665422.59341476203 69.1627921160570.1413337064647316 1114126WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:02FORECAST2024157-12822.9649.7716.36716800.987.898.87TT-9.036-33.03665424.5141093885371.3183703772730.051783923020232161113124.5WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:04FORECAST2024157-12823.0911.1217.105168.3346370833300.987.898.87TT-8.91-32.9165424.6614209995971.4852261872590.053818541005757161113124.5WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024157-12823.16210.47216.817168.3346370833300.987.898.87TT-8.838-32.83865424.6614209995971.4852261872590.055009201256428161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:01FORECAST2024157-12824.9810.05817.51916400.697.898.58TT-7.02-38.0265422.7435294244469.3299388256080.092462711244968161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:02FORECAST2024157-12823.79210.56217.17716400.697.898.58TT-8.208-39.20865422.7435294244469.3299388256080.066331518856437161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024157-12825.28611.62418.45516400.697.898.58TT-6.714-37.71465422.7435294244469.3299388256080.10028462303932161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024157-12824.15212.68618.419164.8920208462700.697.898.58TT-7.848-38.84865423.1399379636269.7723994715880.073564829428083161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.97212.66818.32165.2300010107900.737.898.62TT-8.028-39.02865423.2898997892569.9401905700350.069876416409872161113124.5WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024157-12824.42212.27218.347165.4396025891600.787.898.67TT-7.578-37.57865423.3828353717770.0442880269770.079373098444376161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2024157-12823.6310.86817.249163.410094697950.0137795350.7537795357.898.643779535TT-8.37-38.3765422.4808853500369.0376414831240.063261259600834161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:02FORECAST2024157-12823.59412.66818.131163.041305280210.0122047310.6922047317.898.582204731TT-8.406-38.40665422.3164888734968.8550315872880.062594194566091161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024157-12824.4411.89418.167163.2202435789500.717.898.6TT-7.56-37.5665422.3962740223268.9436227327610.079772279273704161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024157-12824.22412.34418.284165.7564758046500.737.898.62TT-7.776-37.77665423.5232403915370.2017197486680.07508105628596161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2024157-12824.60211.5718.086165.0630884696500.627.898.51TT-7.398-36.39865423.2158567713469.8573164080050.083433255202967161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2024157-12824.81812.63218.725164.3303883636400.487.898.37TT-7.182-35.18265422.8904567017569.4937529850740.088508438890168161112123WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2024157-12824.5312.90218.716160.5971399911500.3188.31TT-7.47-38.4765421.2230442218967.6472162004020.081790911030717161112123WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.910.83217.366161.0153242590.03937010.369370188.3693701TT-8.1-40.165421.4106087392967.8535658123390.068441407082696161112123WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2024157-12824.65612.63218.644161.3983086664600.4588.45TT-7.344-38.34465421.5822106799968.0426557676190.084681133622544161112123WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:01FORECAST2024157-12823.25214.57618.914165.615676386550.0759842930.84598429388.845984293TT-8.748-40.74865423.4608667872870.131757876210.056526587504418161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2024157-12822.94613.2818.113165.766126463390.0811024060.86110240688.861102406TT-9.054-41.05465423.5275147796770.2065155756930.051498304148205161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:04FORECAST2024157-12821.70413.56817.636165.314617884710.0421260070.6621260078.18.762126007TT-10.296-42.29665423.3274241571369.9822113646540.034621833195814161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2024157-12823.21614.32418.77164.01566618960.0161417410.7961417418.249.036141741TT-8.784-46.78465422.7504991333469.3377047473410.055915734827595161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024157-12823.86414.37819.121164.155902119880.1133858880.8433858888.199.033385888TT-8.136-47.13665422.8128761464769.4072291117250.067732452348377161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.55814.9919.274164.043762147420.1031496620.8131496628.29.013149662TT-8.442-47.44265422.7629980095469.3516326902070.061932606789237161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.37813.92818.653168.621997111450.248031630.998031638.229.21803163TT-8.622-48.62265424.7878207457971.6285706827750.058705921354961161114126WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2024157-12822.42411.3916.907168.6645469030.2503938361.1703938368.029.190393836TT-9.576-53.57665424.8065290881571.6498007500870.043745281109313161114126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:04FORECAST2024157-12823.70212.52418.113165.741244746100.887.938.81TT-8.298-48.29865423.5164941667470.19415091370.064611923990475161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:03FORECAST2024157-12825.71815.49420.606150.3998216811600.788.649.42TT-6.282-46.28265416.5871223145462.6546289107760.11213086556394161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024157-12825.6115.13420.372149.0392459682800.668.539.19TT-6.39-45.3965415.9594460173661.9942821878090.10907981750464161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.912.72218.311150.013890566570.2200788590.8800788598.449.320078859TT-8.1-49.165416.4093004988562.4671792359370.068441407082696161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024157-12824.7119.38222.046157.062793836760.4570868611.1270868618.449.567086861TT-7.29-45.2965419.6298323006265.9082338383880.085942909751619161114126WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:05FORECAST2024157-12824.9817.74421.362156.828640910.2909450391.0309450398.469.490945039TT-7.02-45.0265419.5237748619365.793343441030.092462711244968161114126WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:05FORECAST2024157-12822.94615.31419.13156.216368744050.0212598540.7212598548.569.281259854TT-9.054-48.05465419.2461534572665.4931117030030.051498304148205161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024157-12824.63816.8820.759149.214180006410.1472441741.1472441749.9411.087244174TT-7.362-49.36265416.0402701529962.0791077605260.08426363350453161114126WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024157-12823.66616.2519.958148.136808898610.0877953231.0477953239.7310.777795323TT-8.334-52.33465415.5419253347861.5570547826780.063933827557136161114126WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024157-12823.23416.86220.048151.442619156530.4657482831.5757482839.7411.315748283TT-8.766-53.76665417.0667312948563.1616781503440.056220509248456161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024157-12826.36621.14623.756160.910323325440.6161420651.8161420659.6511.466142065TT-5.634-42.63465421.3635323227367.8017422236010.13171587792738161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024157-12825.91622.44224.179159.856271723640.51181131.76181139.5311.2918113TT-6.084-41.08465420.8902595527567.2819476968960.11788139553908161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:08FORECAST2024157-12825.5219.77822.649157.400488771030.1838583671.1938583679.4810.673858367TT-6.48-47.4865419.7826771090166.0739985545690.10658307947132161114126WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:06FORECAST2024157-12827.78819.05823.423155.416931669270.0988189511.2088189519.9311.138818951TT-4.212-45.21265418.8830157221765.1015130319130.1825601725427161114126WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:05FORECAST2024157-12827.82418.53623.18156.450922871870.1374016491.4174016499.7511.167401649TT-4.176-47.17665419.3525579107465.6080946938150.18398855228518161114126WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:05FORECAST2024157-12826.22218.78822.505157.064189704570.1047244661.2647244669.9211.184724466TT-5.778-48.77865419.6304643571365.9089188596070.12717235194464161114126WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:05FORECAST2024157-12826.16818.57222.37156.439742097420.4582679640.9782679649.8210.798267964TT-5.832-44.83265419.3474872400965.6026127530410.12549689270834161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:09FORECAST2024157-12825.57417.43821.506151.681035973540.1901575830.4701575839.529.990157583TT-6.426-45.42665417.1762069219863.2777192494370.10807614057181161112123WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:09FORECAST2024157-12829.7522.5526.15155.66691137490.7141736141.0741736149.4710.544173614TT-2.25-43.2565418.9966462007165.2239137905080.27014517700976162114128WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:06FORECAST2024157-12829.82221.9225.871143.327436629540.7673232491.1073232499.3210.427323249TT-2.178-43.17865413.3006127038559.2373173762630.27371576153305162114128WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2024157-12830.12823.64826.888144.953275767810.8716540141.3016540149.4410.741654014TT-1.872-41.87265414.0613682310160.0195516939850.28914585972526162114128WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2024157-12830.09223.70226.897145.544772294330.9366146791.4466146799.6211.066614679TT-1.908-39.90865414.3373602305560.3046367477880.28730952575397162114128WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024157-12829.08423.41426.249154.505135354571.3877960251.9677960259.7711.737796025TT-2.916-44.91665418.4679386087664.6554454962970.23825890238575161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024157-12830.12820.24625.187147.099909556480.9110241141.1210241149.5810.701024114TT-1.872-46.87265415.0610114175961.055437239950.28914585972526162114128WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:09FORECAST2024157-12831.15420.51625.835146.70243463030.8877957551.0977957559.510.597795755TT-0.846-39.84665414.8763264653160.8633671629360.34363827232189162114128WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:05FORECAST2024157-12831.92821.3826.654136.23485209630.2803151120.3403151129.159.490315112TT-0.071999999999999-31.07265409.9448881268455.8487812015920.38709847248731162112124WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024157-12831.6421.8326.735137.608974800990.3114174910.3314174919.259.581417491TT-0.36-40.3665410.5997590255556.5022118930370.37072751689162162112124WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024157-12834.1622.58628.373137.361471164930.1807087590.1807087599.399.570708759TT2.16-40.8465410.4819739797856.3844078325460.51860378690695163112125WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:06FORECAST2024157-12830.21818.46424.341141.77989845780.0929134360.0929134369.39.392913436TT-1.782-39.78265412.5735712522458.4946390385130.29376065137612162112124WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:08FORECAST2024157-12829.31817.0623.189141.65438056250.0889764260.1489764269.439.578976426TT-2.682-33.68265412.5144769031258.4344826987770.24922213200003162112124WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:10FORECAST2024157-12827.0512.66819.859142.324857418580.1480315760.4080315768.829.228031576TT-4.95-47.9565412.8299218485758.7559597652220.15481307178395161112123WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024157-12819.97618.01418.995137.269279026950088TT-12.024-59.02465410.4380815308556.3405395369450.018929825074359161111121.5WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:06FORECAST2024157-12820.6612.59616.628137.1308777116400.067.777.83TT-11.34-53.3465410.3721697069756.2746958203490.024213905545698161111121.5WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:05FORECAST2024157-12820.6612.59616.628137.0023819283300.067.757.81TT-11.34-53.3465410.3109545177956.2135781002240.024213905545698161111121.5WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:07FORECAST2024157-12816.4313.3714.9137.8217232993800.127.767.88TT-15.57-62.5765410.7009452098756.603512029510.0045304676715049161112123WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:11FORECAST2024157-12820.04818.44619.247138.97209650310.0165354420.0765354428.358.426535442TT-11.952-49.95265411.2471327475357.1518762188110.019435484651919161111121.5WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024157-12818.57218.51818.545140.5742866211600.038.628.65TT-13.428-45.42865412.0051848147757.9173349395570.011084242070714161111121.5WETL