MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 4, 2024

[ Sunday, March 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 5, 2024 ]

DAY 156 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/05/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.207
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -31

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.29 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 168 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-05 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024156-12927.2499816.1621.70499168.334637083330.450000000000051.297.588.87TT-4.75002-30.7500264424.00186203102 71.3741995676490.20689512839516 1114126WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024156-12927.2499816.1621.70499168.334637083330.450000000000051.297.588.87TT-4.75002-30.7500264424.00186203102 71.3741995676490.20689512839516 1114126WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024156-12919.77812.79416.286164.892020846270.1625985131.0025985137.588.582598513TT-12.222-38.22264422.4745863604769.6626883011720.039045847784809161114126WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:03FORECAST2024156-12920.28213.4616.871165.230001010790.2023623141.0423623147.588.622362314TT-11.718-37.71864422.6251191251469.8303488602320.044751983726457161114126WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024156-12921.21813.60417.411165.439602589160.2472442281.0872442287.588.667244228TT-10.782-36.78264422.7184085347269.9343655151060.057110125033113161114126WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:01FORECAST2024156-12922.38813.74818.068163.326017856070.2374017031.0474017037.588.627401703TT-9.612-36.61264421.7754162815368.886899170850.076148437701262161114126WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:01FORECAST2024156-12922.33413.1917.762162.97018287620.1763780480.9863780487.588.566378048TT-9.666-36.66664421.616159251768.710862576810.075175104746624161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:02FORECAST2024156-12922.1913.2817.735163.220243578950.2141733441.0241733447.588.604173344TT-9.81-36.8164421.7280911201368.8345617567120.072625780894655161114126WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024156-12922.31613.80218.059165.756475804650.2267717761.0367717767.588.616771776TT-9.684-36.68464422.8593481085770.091675303530.074852770069495161114126WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2024156-12922.83815.3519.094165.063088469650.2350394970.9250394977.588.505039497TT-9.162-36.16264422.5507942084969.7475391273560.084634550066548161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2024156-12923.0916.48419.787164.330388363640.1866142740.7866142747.588.366614274TT-8.91-34.9164422.2241552662769.3842594114140.089685612695251161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2024156-12923.03615.42219.229160.597139991150.1051181670.7251181677.588.305118167TT-8.964-37.96464420.5503945650167.5391905892910.088584863863907161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:02FORECAST2024156-12922.56813.24417.906160.769903703280.0791339010.7491339017.588.329133901TT-9.432-39.43264420.6282020155367.6243555329220.079461971986436161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2024156-12923.75614.03618.896161.398308666460.0850394160.8650394167.588.445039416TT-8.244-38.24464420.9109284521267.9343119514030.10410424618707161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:01FORECAST2024156-12922.9114.5418.725165.126941738220.3748033521.1948033527.588.774803352TT-9.09-39.0964422.5792313169869.7792161094590.086055506582032161114126WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2024156-12923.07215.8919.481165.262195143410.5177168151.1977168157.588.777716815TT-8.928-38.92864422.6394513089569.8463234775240.089317575921122161114126WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:04FORECAST2024156-12922.89214.34218.617165.046506519080.421260071.141260077.588.72126007TT-9.108-39.10864422.5434086680369.7393134533240.085698610747177161114126WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:01FORECAST2024156-12922.67614.05418.365163.909557625070.4834648281.2234648287.89.023464828TT-9.324-45.32464422.036273189169.1757788401580.081501634409674161114126WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024156-12922.60413.22617.915163.395259046270.4669293861.1169293867.88.916929386TT-9.396-46.39664421.8063890503668.9211642062550.080137537231605161114126WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.15413.40617.78163.33528808750.4787404161.1087404167.88.908740416TT-9.846-45.84664421.7795633304668.8914864860010.071998879854602161114126WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.47813.94618.212166.9973548740.4338585021.1738585027.88.973858502TT-9.522-46.52264423.4101784642670.7083798302620.07779186049414161114126WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2024156-12921.03811.58816.313166.901673682940.6086617461.1986617467.748.938661746TT-10.962-50.96264423.367767010270.6607888974120.054545685458736161114126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:03FORECAST2024156-12923.03614.52218.779165.74124474610.4755908081.1155908087.698.805590808TT-8.964-46.96464422.8525761993570.0841123233750.088584863863907161114126WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.40613.47817.942150.399821681160.3964569071.1664569078.259.416456907TT-9.594-46.59464415.8968226406262.5508079629120.076474997499679161114126WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.58613.6418.113149.039245968280.374015950.964015958.239.19401595TT-9.414-46.41464415.2667566359461.8910442847120.079799215727559161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.31611.76817.042148.593092899440.3377954580.9177954588.189.097795458TT-9.684-47.68464415.0596740718661.6750007081740.074852770069495161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024156-12924.27814.05419.166154.169437169120.5338585560.9238585568.199.113858556TT-7.722-44.72264417.6311546996364.385960064330.1165241706076161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:05FORECAST2024156-12924.02615.38619.706154.973693178060.614173560.994173568.219.20417356TT-7.974-44.97464417.9990338652664.7788540229620.11040339956393161114126WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:05FORECAST2024156-12922.71214.55818.635156.067752441930.6440948360.9740948368.299.264094836TT-9.288-46.28864418.4982685688965.3140841763860.08219019300599161113124.5WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024156-12922.78414.48618.635148.153754065340.7838586911.2938586919.6510.943858691TT-9.216-49.21664414.8555248926361.4624034075890.083580396162889161114126WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024156-12922.4613.5518.005147.428828268650.6248034871.3448034879.3510.694803487TT-9.54-50.5464414.5181725011861.1119284679110.077461047713935161114126WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024156-12923.28813.76618.527148.120960095530.8488193561.4388193569.4110.848819356TT-8.712-51.71264414.8402772599361.4465401540380.093808430344636161114126WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024156-12924.74616.48420.615156.996689821160.8980319811.5180319819.3310.848031981TT-7.254-44.25464418.9210681292865.769220992640.12851957634557161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024156-12924.94415.69220.318156.68697901760.9066934031.4966934039.2810.776693403TT-7.056-42.05664418.780216194565.6174069478540.13384329769986161114126WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:08FORECAST2024156-12923.14414.64818.896156.107621159630.6858271421.2858271429.210.485827142TT-8.856-47.85664418.5164350421865.3336050906440.090796464103155161114126WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:06FORECAST2024156-12924.58415.83620.21154.753469779760.7062995941.4762995949.5611.036299594TT-7.416-48.41664417.8983749738464.6712235425270.12427419627631161114126WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:04FORECAST2024156-12923.34216.41219.877155.509066278530.8500004591.6000004599.4311.030000459TT-8.658-49.65864418.2435055160465.040657019860.094956665820156161115127.5WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024156-12923.8114.68419.247156.327554728870.8590555821.5790555829.511.079055582TT-8.19-50.1964418.6166163253565.4413119990130.10534283185772161115127.5WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024156-12926.49217.04221.767152.992148789150.370078940.790078949.5510.34007894TT-5.508-45.50864417.0912877376863.8116923522210.18064066571179161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:09FORECAST2024156-12925.93416.86221.398150.395902561210.2263780750.5763780759.229.796378075TT-6.066-46.06664415.895010869262.548905530380.16271066174962161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:08FORECAST2024156-12925.17814.1819.679150.806497852320.3629923220.6429923229.199.832992322TT-6.822-47.82264416.0847271177262.7482805064590.14032737253299161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:05FORECAST2024156-12928.18414.79221.488137.471312254420.3393702620.4293702629.239.659370262TT-3.816-47.81664409.8209113102656.3386184671250.24216511944058161112123WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:05FORECAST2024156-12927.51816.86222.19138.605746517940.425197080.625197089.249.86519708TT-4.482-47.48264410.3620742060456.8785416379780.21669266056312161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2024156-12927.57216.23221.902138.792197549990.5090553930.6390553939.4910.129055393TT-4.428-45.42864410.4508684436756.96737801760.21869856900155161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024156-12925.62816.4321.029144.411643406910.5830711810.7030711819.6510.353071181TT-6.372-49.37264413.1073995114459.6575184670010.15338610145679161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024156-12924.78213.5519.166140.593183424930.2129922410.2629922419.539.792992241TT-7.218-52.21864411.3063969674257.8268757126860.12947646414431161112123WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:09FORECAST2024156-12925.84414.05419.949140.271616634430.2055119220.2555119229.459.705511922TT-6.156-46.15664411.1539288520957.6732262856790.15993074246883161112123WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2024156-12928.97615.99822.487133.742430854810.0594488510.0594488519.159.209448851TT-3.024-38.02464408.0310841191754.5710690544220.27445129964451162111122WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024156-12928.11217.0622.586134.890967796510.0165354420.0365354429.239.266535442TT-3.888-46.88864408.5841784787855.1143152613450.23933548588979161111121.5WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024156-12928.5817.45623.018135.9642620049800.189.219.39TT-3.42-50.4264409.0995822211855.6229227832470.25804670868362162112124WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:06FORECAST2024156-12927.57216.05221.812141.071047887600.079.239.3TT-4.428-45.42864411.5327423610658.0553552049330.21869856900155161111121.5WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:07FORECAST2024156-12927.39219.36423.378140.958625970460.0578740470.1078740479.389.487874047TT-4.608-37.60864411.479517280658.0015873708620.2120537320617161112123WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:10FORECAST2024156-12924.90813.69419.301140.527214968970.1937008920.2637008928.829.083700892TT-7.092-50.09264411.2751287464657.7953484287450.13286427363404161112123WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024156-12928.32812.2920.309137.269279026950088TT-3.672-53.67264409.7243710495856.2425690137480.24787829743392161111121.5WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:05FORECAST2024156-12932.68415.09823.891137.130877711640.0606299540.0606299547.777.830629954TT0.684-49.31664409.6582082842956.1767896638040.44768251783628162111122WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:05FORECAST2024156-12932.68415.02623.855137.002381928330.0602362530.0602362537.757.810236253TT0.684-49.31664409.5967600348656.1157317549020.44768251783628162111122WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:07FORECAST2024156-12923.12612.57817.852137.821723299380.0437008110.2637008117.627.883700811TT-8.874-53.87464409.9882355108756.5052851505810.090425055286323161112123WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:11FORECAST2024156-12924.8914.16219.526138.7475893363100.128.298.41TT-7.11-45.1164410.4296283422656.9461215246870.13237660983561161112123WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024156-12928.9413.96421.452140.5742866211600.118.548.65TT-3.06-39.0664411.2974406548257.8178443091610.27293899267391162112124WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:06FORECAST2024156-12921.63216.23218.932147.673741361730.1976379020.3176379028.338.647637902TT-10.368-46.36864414.6322150566461.2302904865180.063366964770214161112123WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:06FORECAST2024156-12923.46816.41219.94143.7736620883200.028.448.46TT-8.532-35.53264412.8077054176159.3508755461680.09767594859241161111121.5WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:06FORECAST2024156-12923.25220.24621.749149.905956921700.059.659.7TT-8.748-31.74864415.6683715974662.3111650064030.093048635689123161111121.5WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:09FORECAST2024156-12916.08813.35214.72153.4818597207700.19.9610.06TT-15.912-42.91264417.3160496892864.0504433976360.012875424625079161112123WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024156-12931.02829.3930.209157.58873882890.3208663150.7408663159.9610.700866315TT-0.972-19.97264419.1900151762366.0596258212910.36675041404511162113126WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:16FORECAST2024156-12930.16429.94830.056158.956627306540.0736220870.56362208710.0710.633622087TT-1.836-28.83664419.8098542926566.7315585484110.32653773826704162113126WETL