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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 31, 2024

[ Saturday, March 30, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, April 1, 2024 ]

DAY 183 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.583
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 132 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 56.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -103

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-04-01 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024183-10340.6299224.4500832.54132.1404837500.027.237.25TT8.62992188.6299290425.19190395623 56.185063875360.583100698937316 3111122.5WETL
2024-04-01 00:00:01FORECAST2024183-10240.71222.17231.442135.691122400.027.237.25TT8.712188.71291427.3916547766757.993253341040.5865399254644163111122.5WETL
2024-03-31 12:00:01FORECAST2024183-10241.03622.94631.991135.644480800.027.237.25TT9.036189.03691427.3714535137157.9705789206080.60004869622538163111122.5WETL
2024-03-31 08:00:01FORECAST2024183-10241.79223.19832.495135.602365600.027.237.25TT9.792189.79291427.3532106546357.9501063115220.6310817960896163111122.5WETL
2024-03-31 04:00:03FORECAST2024183-10241.2723.4532.36135.138210400.027.237.25TT9.27189.2791427.1520252287757.7245602581510.60973210681215163111122.5WETL
2024-03-31 00:00:02FORECAST2024183-10342.6223.9933.305143.366894400.027.237.25TT10.62188.6290430.0471369898461.6545224758450.66410969405455163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 20:00:01FORECAST2024183-10341.73823.32432.531143.604136800.027.237.25TT9.738186.73890430.1482539332761.7710687021150.62889060384242163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 16:00:01FORECAST2024183-10342.1723.46832.819143.584850400.027.237.25TT10.17187.1790430.1400360007161.7615927202120.64629750798232163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.70223.79232.747143.442957600.027.237.25TT9.702186.70290430.0795631191361.6918845371230.62742748000332163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2024183-10342.02624.42233.224143.385295200.027.237.25TT10.026187.02690430.0549819189961.6635605346850.64052701205245163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2024183-10342.31423.97233.143142.9572896833300.027.237.25TT10.314187.31490429.872412670461.4533950249950.65203459975064163111122.5WETL
2024-03-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024183-10341.9923.68432.837144.4806047640700.047.237.27TT9.99183.9990430.5212922844962.201976673070.6390793080355163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.9924.1733.08144.373290400.047.237.27TT9.99181.9990430.4756622313662.1491877934610.6390793080355163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2024183-10342.2624.4433.35144.348296800.047.237.27TT10.26182.2690430.4650331701862.1368943700710.64988717969667163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.94623.70232.324144.5794352529200.047.237.27TT8.946180.94690430.5633039947362.2505993321880.59630750999564163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.9124.11632.513144.5614876425400.057.237.28TT8.91181.9190430.5556754545462.2417689566450.59480854453171163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 04:00:04FORECAST2024183-10340.8224.1732.495144.5881255421800.087.237.31TT8.82182.8290430.5669976328662.2548751080580.59105508815518163111122.5WETL
2024-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.0923.932.495143.2771183432700.137.527.65TT9.09180.0990430.0088569383861.6104298842160.60228903276495163112125WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.41423.88232.648137.7521370580500.097.657.74TT9.414179.41490427.6361549018358.9077942210130.61565789166807163111122.5WETL
2024-03-28 16:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.11823.32431.721137.9465095167400.117.657.76TT8.118176.11890427.7201944442959.002507873410.56151718660413163112125WETL
2024-03-28 12:00:03FORECAST2024183-10341.52224.15232.837140.7687732219900.17.657.75TT9.522177.52290428.9357746780460.3807627924530.620084647944163112125WETL
2024-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024183-10342.90824.22433.566140.9977301569900.097.77.79TT10.908178.90890429.0340073607760.4928211980240.67532215395163163111122.5WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024183-10342.27823.39632.837140.3560370802500.077.687.75TT10.278181.27890428.7585481847760.1788506874950.65060352285992163111122.5WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024183-10342.42223.43232.927141.2541654859400.167.848TT10.422180.42290429.1439616919260.6183721821230.65631479208022163112125WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024183-10341.59423.66632.63132.992978954600.167.727.88TT9.594177.59490425.5654707332656.5972196930310.62302714447928163112125WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.91824.29633.107133.1131805983900.167.797.95TT9.918179.91890425.6180785319556.6553761535620.63617793572962163112125WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024183-10342.00823.97232.99137.1204663853100.287.728TT10.008178.00890427.3627569136258.6001805437070.63980341052633163112125WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.21624.18832.702136.9593446144800.267.667.92TT9.216176.21690427.2929503834558.5217624429050.60750326750869163112125WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:05FORECAST2024183-10341.8122.85632.333137.0158478000400.267.67.86TT9.81175.8190427.3174338246358.549260475220.63181125217959163112125WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.15423.88232.018135.6493992040400.227.487.7TT8.154171.15490426.7243507272457.8849018018850.56304179363522163112125WETL
2024-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.71224.40432.558133.3662033914700.147.47.54TT8.712173.71290425.7287647428956.77782902830.5865399254644163112125WETL
2024-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024183-10340.78423.34232.063133.104730282700.137.377.5TT8.784173.78490425.6143806672556.6512873431540.58955134421398163112125WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.4524.8933.17132.7085807323200.017.327.33TT9.45177.4590425.4409362088356.4596628297040.61713518525757163111122.5WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:04FORECAST2024183-10341.07225.82633.449132.83112925303007.357.35TT9.072177.07290425.4946097468456.5189295037520.60154262461993163111122.5WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024183-10341.43224.74633.089133.48781663886007.447.44TT9.432174.43290425.7819398193356.836701510740.61639674988867163111122.5WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024183-10341.70223.34232.522133.2094603659900.017.417.42TT9.702175.70290425.6602050296556.7019662112750.62742748000332163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024183-10342.74623.64833.197132.2943472297300.027.577.59TT10.746171.74690425.25938737956.2594130566220.6690338640432163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024183-10342.6225.05233.836131.3297922012600.037.457.48TT10.62177.6290424.8359045483655.793611063970.66410969405455163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024183-10339.97426.34833.161131.8322189236300.017.357.36TT7.974173.97490425.0566218293456.0361576239420.55540984785907163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2024183-10340.24424.31432.279132.16796787871007.457.45TT8.244171.24490425.2039602335256.1983433580430.56684916925658163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:05FORECAST2024183-10340.51423.93632.225132.24372864423007.357.35TT8.514174.51490425.2371893400456.2349514765190.57823275402686163111122.5WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:04FORECAST2024183-10345.03228.4936.761127.89825906263007.267.26TT13.032185.03290423.32086858854.1420021172850.7526786261073164111123WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024183-10345.57227.87836.725127.95277331903007.367.36TT13.572190.57290423.3450402253854.1681719676940.7706498995412164111123WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024183-10342.85425.64634.25128.24559914991007.327.32TT10.854182.85490423.4748220258754.3087822756110.67323148768371163111122.5WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:04FORECAST2024183-10342.3526.1534.25130.9669906377500.017.687.69TT10.35168.3590424.6763497154755.6185835172590.65346351560909163111122.5WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2024183-10342.11626.67234.394131.4337818957600.057.857.9TT10.116173.11690424.8816105931855.8437969382250.64413742294998163111122.5WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:09FORECAST2024183-10344.7827.93236.356131.456922055600.057.77.75TT12.78177.7890424.8917796242255.8549655561250.74404175048817164111123WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:04FORECAST2024183-10343.84429.06636.455135.2285615653700.18.368.46TT11.844171.84490426.5412785228757.6805635429040.71063950811961164112126WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:04FORECAST2024183-10344.31230.93837.625131.9547747975400.068.28.26TT12.312173.31290425.1104182027256.0953494980260.72759460110889164111123WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024183-10342.42228.81435.618134.1420364551300.168.348.5TT10.422167.42290426.0677140515257.1535908306520.65631479208022163112125WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:04FORECAST2024183-10340.13627.69833.917131.5382084632800.067.847.9TT8.136167.13690424.927496507455.8942016173690.56227960568354163111122.5WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:05FORECAST2024183-10341.57626.0633.818131.4542934782900.217.727.93TT9.576169.57690424.8906245160355.8536968513030.62229218214533163112125WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2024183-10338.33623.79231.064135.8227102881600.258.218.46TT6.336154.33690426.7996874029157.9690902932030.48536537315562162112124WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:04FORECAST2024183-10339.4727.533.485141.4713994452500.157.948.09TT7.47159.4790429.2370512449460.7247663333740.53393981943549163112125WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024183-10338.13823.95431.046138.3001957029900.137.737.86TT6.138159.13890427.873009018459.174920883270.47688604369006162112124WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2024183-10337.2226.07831.649139.992247695700.098.018.1TT5.22155.2290428.6021850179260.0009832479450.43776957569924162111122WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:04FORECAST2024183-10337.47224.4430.956139.5753597430900.147.657.79TT5.472157.47290428.4228213935759.7972694181590.44846339679099162112124WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:04FORECAST2024183-10341.37824.90833.143139.8220468149800.227.437.65TT9.378148.37890428.528980016959.9177991054990.61417891676333163112125WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2024183-10340.4626.43833.449142.0024331272900.467.47.86TT8.46142.4690429.4643947821160.9849890005960.57596094259087163112125WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:04FORECAST2024183-10330.52426.5128.517146.8445212097500.497.78.19TT-1.476141.52490431.5232811002763.3668296040270.19042744719514161112123WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024183-10332.48627.75230.119145.421966825560.0562992430.6162992437.948.556299243TT0.486146.48690430.9210266716462.665383245080.25289562588621162113126WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024183-10333.0828.1330.605145.161800144260.0267716680.3767716688.378.746771668TT1.08155.0890430.8106465968362.5372489813080.27373349555415162112124WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024183-10335.83433.2634.547149.0805441924900.338.458.78TT3.834133.83490432.4655390958764.4721979129080.37996286919159162112124WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2024183-10328.74226.94227.842148.3283910207600.478.288.75TT-3.258130.74290432.1491795761764.0999924874760.14276861964849161112123WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2024183-10328.63428.428.517145.3760857474800.048.158.19TT-3.366133.63490430.9015661524262.6427830296970.14016447954692161111121.5WETL