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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 30, 2024

[ Friday, March 29, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 31, 2024 ]

DAY 182 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.616
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 177

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 136 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-31 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024182-10440.8500625.2800633.06506135.5115400.396.997.38TT8.85006176.8500689426.01246779445 57.7296055700270.6156385680093516 3112125WETL
2024-03-31 00:00:01FORECAST2024182-10338.842330.92143.790900.396.997.38TT6.84174.8490430.2278128876261.8628444201420.53483728588775163112125WETL
2024-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2024182-10338.04821.99230.02143.819239200.396.997.38TT6.048174.04890430.2398817601861.8767724682480.50240453542392163112125WETL
2024-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2024182-10338.323.43230.866143.804479200.396.997.38TT6.3174.390430.2335959974661.8695182067580.51273601792331163112125WETL
2024-03-30 04:00:03FORECAST2024182-10338.31823.25230.785143.3836568833300.396.997.38TT6.318174.31890430.0542834599861.6627558208340.51347373612339163112125WETL
2024-03-30 00:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.32622.44230.884144.8788295640700.416.997.4TT7.326171.32689430.0539038947762.3057062457310.55463888189096163112125WETL
2024-03-29 20:00:02FORECAST2024182-10439.32622.83831.082144.758231200.416.997.4TT7.326169.32689430.0024814292162.2463986233040.55463888189096163112125WETL
2024-03-29 16:00:01FORECAST2024182-10439.4722.56831.019144.748292800.416.997.4TT7.47169.4789429.9982430486662.2415115882930.56048219115204163112125WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.05623.10831.082144.9143888529200.416.997.4TT7.056169.05689430.0690631692162.3231954537130.54365161034708163112125WETL
2024-03-29 08:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.1123.48631.298144.9139564425400.426.997.41TT7.11170.1189430.0688788366462.3229827750220.54585201074326163112125WETL
2024-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.3824.6232144.9524023421800.456.997.44TT7.38171.3889430.0852671792862.3418926896130.55683158415009163112125WETL
2024-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2024182-10438.76823.30631.037143.6469055432700.796.997.78TT6.768167.76889429.5278762914361.7003502738370.53189515867805163113127.5WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2024182-10439.16423.64831.406138.1336338580500.886.997.87TT7.164167.16489427.1534553366959.0042590006790.54805100482081163113127.5WETL
2024-03-28 16:00:03FORECAST2024182-10438.22822.58630.407138.2486959167400.96.997.89TT6.228165.22889427.203350025659.0603060323010.50978473452878163113127.5WETL
2024-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2024182-10437.83223.3630.596141.1737876219900.896.997.88TT5.832164.83289428.4668808864260.4882924453170.49354743242449162113126WETL
2024-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024182-10438.91223.73831.325141.4473197569900.936.997.92TT6.912164.91289428.584557325760.6221369229550.53777750996773163113127.5WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024182-10439.14623.30631.226140.7529826802500.896.997.88TT7.146168.14689428.2856864030160.2824878004810.54731816717842163113127.5WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2024182-10439.14623.37831.262141.6683310859400.987.158.13TT7.146167.14689428.6795790548360.7303205353210.54731816717842163113127.5WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.1322.11829.624133.371228554600.887.138.01TT5.13165.1389425.0754753280456.6928383729290.46480637678742162113126WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:01FORECAST2024182-10438.2123.59430.902133.5035333983900.957.138.08TT6.21167.2189425.133543995656.7568302895910.50904682364983163113127.5WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.423.10830.254137.53905998531017.138.13TT5.4165.489426.8953960797558.7147914888660.4758471269744162114128WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024182-10437.50823.68430.596137.3223422144800.877.188.05TT5.508163.50889426.801238436158.6093457220860.48026910349717162113126WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:05FORECAST2024182-10437.47221.8329.651137.3897678000400.877.127.99TT5.472163.47289426.8305384698958.6421485703440.47879481453692162113126WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.05823.01830.038135.9457800040400.856.987.83TT5.058160.05889426.2019500030957.9403565324130.46186639413959162113126WETL
2024-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.77823.01830.398133.7295945914700.776.97.67TT5.778161.77889425.2327172300456.8661988822030.49133348309574162113126WETL
2024-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.0422.13629.588133.442242282700.726.917.63TT5.04162.0489425.1066457178556.7271840138690.46113171758283162113126WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024182-10438.01222.85630.434133.1274695323200.596.877.46TT6.012165.01289424.9684382511856.5749728154820.5009283159916163113127.5WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024182-10438.15624.06231.109133.2314204530300.576.917.48TT6.156165.15689425.0140922672556.6252312253220.50683291533178163113127.5WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024182-10436.96823.41430.191133.8934214388600.636.947.57TT4.968161.96889425.3045526258456.9454817045970.45819436251083162113126WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024182-10437.70622.3730.038133.6639699659900.676.887.55TT5.706162.70689425.2039335177356.8344457991340.48838197770811162113126WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10435.72623.55829.642132.8001232297300.717.017.72TT3.726157.72689424.8245928500156.4167582815030.40801794334143162113126WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024182-10437.95824.4431.199131.8809306012600.67.017.61TT5.958163.95889424.4200330793755.9729089283250.49871396932652162113126WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024182-10437.92225.59231.757132.1640237236300.56.997.49TT5.922162.92289424.5447301450656.1095397866320.49723775601676162113126WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:04FORECAST2024182-10437.16625.05231.109132.5083334787100.477.117.58TT5.166160.16689424.6962711632356.2757951264610.46627709903694162112124WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:05FORECAST2024182-10438.35423.6330.992132.6091862442300.417.077.48TT6.354163.35489424.7406343914456.3245098915060.5149490316857163112125WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.39824.63832.018128.6776854626300.666.737.39TT7.398169.39889423.0028003166154.431021288950.55756210175437163113127.5WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10439.95624.76432.36128.7495181190300.76.797.49TT7.956173.95689423.0347082649854.4655148367410.58009904601741163113127.5WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024182-10438.28223.86431.073128.8637479499100.686.777.45TT6.282169.28289423.0854369803854.5203751123190.51199825614057163113127.5WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024182-10435.90620.2128.058131.5028770377500.747.087.82TT3.906154.90689424.2533678835355.7905384696390.41521712687288162113126WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:04FORECAST2024182-10436.39221.54228.967131.9666178957600.787.258.03TT4.392160.39289424.4577861445356.0142584770170.43479093337969162113126WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:09FORECAST2024182-10436.96821.57829.273132.162745255600.837.057.88TT4.968161.96889424.5441672060556.1089226202040.45819436251083162113126WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024182-10437.8524.1731.01135.8653079653701.527.078.59TT5.85156.8589426.1668515101857.9012905250650.494285463074111621151210WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:04FORECAST2024182-10437.92225.53831.73132.6549891975401.357.048.39TT5.922157.92289424.760778493956.3466364826460.49723775601676162114128WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2024182-10438.15624.24231.199134.7046876551301.686.958.63TT6.156154.15689425.6598394183357.3383757161770.506832915331781631151212.5WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:04FORECAST2024182-10437.52623.30630.416131.9409596632801.266.778.03TT5.526155.52689424.4464822157456.0018761892470.48100635046574162114128WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:04FORECAST2024182-10437.92222.24430.083131.9592822782901.246.828.06TT5.922156.92289424.4545544578556.0107183660080.49723775601676162114128WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:05FORECAST2024182-10434.21423.3628.787136.0626094881601.666.938.59TT2.214145.21489426.2528933063857.9970809651450.348984518705121621151210WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024182-10436.48224.92630.704141.8168818452500.977.258.22TT4.482149.48289428.7434170783660.803054521730.43843482120035162113126WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10435.54624.11629.831138.5522965029900.777.227.99TT3.546149.54689427.3349312365859.2082360987730.40084967417309162113126WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2024182-10435.2423.0929.165140.176846095700.887.358.23TT3.24147.2489428.0372933309860.0009177904740.38874108269065162113126WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:04FORECAST2024182-10433.42222.44227.932139.7376213430900.956.977.92TT1.422149.42289427.8476835038659.7864175899820.31936536973077162113126WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024182-10434.30422.49628.4140.187307614980.0598425520.9198425526.867.779842552TT2.304136.30489428.0418069068460.0060284569220.35241358889592162113126WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2024182-10433.15226.13229.642142.391900327290.2031497160.9431497167.057.993149716TT1.152131.15289428.9902978742861.0847437362870.30951402808788162113126WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:04FORECAST2024182-10437.3127.06832.189146.844521209750.3019686670.8919686677.438.321968667TT5.31140.3189430.8898468055263.2738132482970.47216439432377162113126WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:04FORECAST2024182-10440.31626.9633.638144.986959479270.3381891591.0081891597.628.628189159TT8.316143.31689430.0999964925362.3588907634950.5945056087621631141210WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:03FORECAST2024182-10441.4528.90435.177144.969391691860.1795276560.8995276567.958.849527656TT9.45151.4589430.0925087235162.3502493608750.63897229843223163113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024182-10436.57226.00631.289149.188488992490.0259842661.1559842667.758.905984266TT4.572126.57289431.8812174292764.4317062525080.44208393512786162114128WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:05FORECAST2024182-10432.84625.86229.354148.328391020760.1354331441.0354331447.848.875433144TT0.846130.84689431.5181282203564.0063896552160.29851254288089162114128WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2024182-10433.24226.34829.795145.376085747480.0374015950.8174015957.58.317401595TT1.242134.24289430.265764846462.5503527245140.31278310135017162113126WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:06FORECAST2024182-10428.47227.69828.085143.010980584550.0133858340.6133858348.298.903385834TT-3.528131.47289429.2556935581361.3882776572490.16393416738437161113124.5WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024182-10428.0426.97827.509145.1915113381300.848.158.99TT-3.96128.0489430.187156306862.4595233824350.15318833603345161113124.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024182-10428.07626.627.338145.0895876887400.758.168.91TT-3.924123.07689430.143732167262.4093767470360.15406562199698161113124.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:05FORECAST2024182-10430.66828.429.534142.9277086222400.248.548.78TT-1.332130.66889429.2200196960461.3474339099460.22584809575608161112123WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:04FORECAST2024182-10428.2226.58227.401143.042840111040.1460630710.3260630718.398.716063071TT-3.78128.2289429.2693402424361.4039056008720.15760785385326161112123WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:06FORECAST2024182-10429.60628.79629.201140.6492873591100.198.278.46TT-2.394130.60689428.2410064640160.2317923771110.19440171865267161112123WETL