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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 3, 2024

[ Saturday, March 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, March 4, 2024 ]

DAY 155 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/04/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.102
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.75 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 164 in
SWE DAY: 63
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-04 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024155-13022.4616.0719.265164.12368750.529999999999971.257.58.75TT-9.54-29.5463421.46270824034 69.172013820140.1015369404514116 1114126WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024155-13022.4616.0719.265164.12368750.529999999999971.257.58.75TT-9.54-29.5463421.46270824034 69.172013820140.1015369404514116 1114126WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024155-13020.82212.07416.448164.490326288860.4956695591.2156695597.58.715669559TT-11.178-31.17863421.6269411940769.3535531291840.071830043403547161114126WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:04FORECAST2024155-13021.0212.05616.538163.85270095760.3830710731.1030710737.58.603071073TT-10.98-30.9863421.3412236214769.037897515160.075020573900573161114126WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:04FORECAST2024155-13022.26213.11817.69163.34376957510.2933072451.0133072457.58.513307245TT-9.738-29.73863421.1128410323568.7861588707050.09753339229794161114126WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2024155-13023.79212.32618.059160.008006498910.200787511.030787517.58.53078751TT-8.208-33.20863419.6085883906167.1407337382040.13159294284035161114126WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:01FORECAST2024155-13022.53211.5717.051160.261100037010.2456694241.0756694247.58.575669424TT-9.468-34.46863419.7231675442367.2652965416580.10302195706281161114126WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:02FORECAST2024155-13023.1810.86817.024160.886321041910.3645671261.1945671267.58.694567126TT-8.82-33.8263420.005898729167.5732038624270.11709877097132161114126WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:01FORECAST2024155-13022.92814.07218.5163.075315476930.4031498241.2331498247.58.733149824TT-9.072-34.07263420.9922534614768.6534445465740.11147107818297161114126WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:04FORECAST2024155-13022.85613.83818.347162.464665683650.2551182481.0851182487.58.585118248TT-9.144-34.14463420.7176477085568.351751982180.10989920027347161114126WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.51414.01818.266162.729839997980.1952756961.1252756967.58.625275696TT-9.486-34.48663420.8369474176168.4827291185080.10264923700124161114126WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:01FORECAST2024155-13022.20813.80218.005161.027810431170.3035434711.3735434717.58.873543471TT-9.792-39.79263420.0698193668867.6429232408630.096461815596293161114126WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024155-13022.4614.32418.392160.581282407970.263779671.283779677.58.78377967TT-9.54-40.5463419.8680133022767.4229440181670.10153694045141161114126WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.04612.97417.51160.42361435670.2307087861.2607087867.58.760708786TT-9.954-39.95463419.7967013345667.3453041231110.093298854278232161114126WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024155-13021.59612.3816.988164.330834350540.3208663151.3708663157.58.870866315TT-10.404-41.40463421.5555168328769.2745698062170.084914497828607161114126WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:04FORECAST2024155-13020.5710.18415.377162.941912803930.307086781.157086787.58.65708678TT-11.43-44.4363420.9322993902468.5875140236030.067920642270931161114126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.13612.54217.339162.915840016320.4011813191.1611813197.58.661181319TT-9.864-41.86463420.9205793373368.5746297628960.095046493080689161114126WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.9113.1918.05147.885671832060.3846458771.4346458777.929.354645877TT-9.09-41.0963414.0334752215961.2296186441090.11107661327705161114126WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024155-13023.23414.8119.022146.701709980840.2944883481.2344883487.929.154488348TT-8.766-40.76663413.4797079613360.6581802003070.11833036694913161114126WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.65812.8317.744146.389191473910.322834821.172834827.929.09283482TT-9.342-42.34263413.3332575671160.5075213845260.10565845848686161114126WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.40612.63217.519151.034533994360.137795350.987795357.928.90779535TT-9.594-40.59463415.498194590962.7545761955340.10043341900711161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:05FORECAST2024155-13023.14413.60418.374151.465441374730.125984321.005984327.918.91598432TT-8.856-40.85663415.697725019262.9638393985040.11628275358353161114126WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:05FORECAST2024155-13022.76612.81217.789151.978876648360.0633858611.0533858617.98.953385861TT-9.234-41.23463415.9351847971363.2133621439950.10795673406371161114126WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024155-13022.56811.55217.06142.861495312210.220472561.130472569.3610.49047256TT-9.432-44.43263411.6720438673758.8120837651250.10377033473787161114126WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:03FORECAST2024155-13021.86611.28216.574143.016097624290.3405513651.1605513659.2410.400551365TT-10.134-45.13463411.7451593429658.8861859049230.089874770924072161114126WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024155-13021.70411.40816.556142.477203186910.2633859691.0933859699.2410.333385969TT-10.296-47.29663411.490177641758.6279696492760.086873483981346161114126WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:03FORECAST2024155-13023.7213.51418.617151.41059524540.2956694511.1556694519.1210.275669451TT-8.28-41.2863415.6723408036962.9371965481370.12982638669661161114126WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024155-13023.8113.58618.698151.063350071470.3377954581.1077954589.0910.197795458TT-8.19-39.1963415.5115446077362.7685659218160.13203715436227161114126WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:08FORECAST2024155-13022.35212.97417.663151.341577442010.3244096241.0544096249.0810.134409624TT-9.648-42.64863415.6403925434262.9036726561370.09933864611821161114126WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:05FORECAST2024155-13022.98213.04618.014149.738056129870.4039372261.1939372269.4710.663937226TT-9.018-45.01863414.8965455492562.1258022255420.11266046606984161114126WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:04FORECAST2024155-13022.56813.4618.014149.507287821910.43307111.24307119.2710.5130711TT-9.432-45.43263414.789246355862.0140152403510.10377033473787161114126WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024155-13022.40612.03817.222150.15408341680.3003938631.2803938639.2710.550393863TT-9.594-45.59463415.089824865162.3274321882590.10043341900711161114126WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024155-13023.3613.89218.626150.51204002960.1519685860.8919685869.4110.301968586TT-8.64-43.6463415.2559621289862.5010219944870.12123951541689161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:09FORECAST2024155-13023.3614.6318.995148.801538028350.0484252230.7084252239.199.898425223TT-8.64-43.6463414.4607068165361.6723906266160.12123951541689161113124.5WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:08FORECAST2024155-13023.10811.73217.42148.3919487818600.69.29.8TT-8.892-44.89263414.2697652149161.4742977816440.11547076669236161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:05FORECAST2024155-13022.31612.4717.393135.0856653966900.489.179.65TT-9.684-47.68463407.9573656866455.1091921972610.098613644513593161112123WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:04FORECAST2024155-13023.59413.76618.68135.737066920400.519.269.77TT-8.406-47.40663408.2713772998755.4175592622360.12677445271043161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:05FORECAST2024155-13023.23413.06418.149135.2657421919900.499.469.95TT-8.766-44.76663408.0442246433255.1944048935360.11833036694913161112123WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024155-13023.2714.1818.725140.2947372317800.549.5610.1TT-8.73-46.7363410.4539521049357.5845293563050.11915648582788161113124.5WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:06FORECAST2024155-13023.39613.38818.392138.8986702655500.429.499.91TT-8.604-48.60463409.7880866418756.9190203252180.12207983426232161112123WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2024155-13024.9813.98219.481138.6335757845600.419.429.83TT-7.02-44.0263409.6613807162856.7928220695390.16313545948261161112123WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:04FORECAST2024155-13026.43815.7121.074133.2236035905500.389.19.48TT-5.562-38.56263407.0568781669454.2295841757170.20802724551703161112123WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024155-13025.77214.43220.102134.7398896786500.429.169.58TT-6.228-47.22863407.7904714292854.9456431323870.18668280662343161112123WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024155-13025.35815.2620.309135.9642620049800.529.29.72TT-6.642-50.64263408.3807757663255.5251907940870.17412318191119161113124.5WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:06FORECAST2024155-13026.0615.96221.011141.071047887600.299.349.63TT-5.94-44.9463410.8231995044257.9552592506260.19574157478507161112123WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:07FORECAST2024155-13026.29417.0621.677140.5140723390200.379.399.76TT-5.706-36.70663410.5583513087557.6892258751860.20329433448692161112123WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:10FORECAST2024155-13022.42412.90217.663138.771543197190.0688976750.2988976758.929.218897675TT-9.576-46.57663409.7273349791556.8584945651290.10080028610614161112123WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024155-13023.3612.61417.987137.2692790269500.168.178.33TT-8.64-53.6463409.0079433089756.1442254943180.12123951541689161112123WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:05FORECAST2024155-13024.3514.919.625136.5030771686200.147.968.1TT-7.65-53.6563408.6399725715455.7806137101150.14584425134371161112123WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024155-13024.2614.84619.553136.3785812965100.147.948.08TT-7.74-53.7463408.5801153939255.7215764833870.14347825724162161112123WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:06FORECAST2024155-13024.18812.57818.383137.285482049750.0830709110.4030709117.778.173070911TT-7.812-48.81263409.0157171296456.1519198920670.14160416716308161112123WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:11FORECAST2024155-13024.38615.67420.03138.747589336310.0641732630.2641732638.488.744173263TT-7.614-41.61463409.7158856777756.8470914505820.1467979295962161112123WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024155-13023.8114.25219.031140.574286621160.0283464720.4383464728.548.978346472TT-8.19-40.1963410.5870019506657.7179748951360.13203715436227161112123WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:06FORECAST2024155-13024.45813.98219.22145.14268306430.0287401730.5487401738.238.778740173TT-7.542-39.54263412.7479689544259.9073476433840.14871777667723161113124.5WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:06FORECAST2024155-13024.7641419.382143.7736620883200.58.298.79TT-7.236-31.23663412.1030166374959.2495598596180.15706313868061161113124.5WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:05FORECAST2024155-13027.0518.21222.631149.905956921700.579.4610.03TT-4.95-26.9563414.9745740290262.2071606179960.22885358109171161113124.5WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:09FORECAST2024155-13024.85413.89219.373153.4818597207700.829.5710.39TT-7.146-31.14663416.6285252089163.9449208617850.15957501733405161113124.5WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024155-13030.90216.05223.477154.754247513170.4114175450.9214175459.7910.711417545TT-1.098-23.09863417.2134244756364.565549557120.38285300930785162113126WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:16FORECAST2024155-13030.88414.28822.586158.27770743170.4464569340.9364569349.9510.886456934TT-1.116-31.11663418.8232803996866.2903886406840.38206042827774162113126WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:05FORECAST2024155-13031.15419.68825.421166.027219333520.4098427411.6498427419.4411.089842741TT-0.846-32.84663422.3137184415170.1155723592430.393999237785461621151210WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:05FORECAST2024155-13026.31218.35622.334162.422284896340.1610237091.0510237099.9410.991023709TT-5.688-36.68863420.6985734978568.3308235601490.2038824169505161114126WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:04FORECAST2024155-13026.34823.7225.034165.385175921140.2255906732.1055906739.5711.675590673TT-5.652-23.65263422.0271404316569.7970328637840.20506161289537161115127.5WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:05FORECAST2024155-13029.40827.75228.58158.311252165840.3905513922.2605513928.2110.470551392TT-2.592-23.59263418.8385377352966.3068533641830.319021986388651621151210WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:09FORECAST2024155-13026.97825.62826.303156.8457263801501.98.210.1TT-5.022-31.02263418.1707508665865.58829517060.22634440512036161115127.5WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:09FORECAST2024155-13027.30227.10427.203149.1665248678201.447.268.7TT-4.698-32.69863414.6306884489661.8490188994840.23775731177586161114126WETL