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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 29, 2024

[ Thursday, March 28, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 30, 2024 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/30/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.586
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 165

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 144 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-30 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024181-10539.4599223.1299631.29494143.590592083330.0200000000000951.39000000000016.878.2600000000001TT7.45992165.4599288428.86266830684 61.5806444646170.5864571490561716 31141210WETL
2024-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2024181-10435.1519.1327.14145.097080764070.0448819141.4148819146.878.284881914TT3.15161.1589430.146924943162.4130631088840.40534203740165162114128WETL
2024-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2024181-10433.40419.70626.555145.142283252920.0440945121.4140945126.878.284094512TT1.404159.40489430.1661842929862.4353021664790.3353888482421162114128WETL
2024-03-29 08:00:02FORECAST2024181-10433.65620.31826.987145.147262842540.0480315221.4180315226.878.288031522TT1.656159.65689430.1683058033162.437752148960.34520380469875162114128WETL
2024-03-29 04:00:03FORECAST2024181-10434.721.45228.076145.206077542180.0842520141.4542520146.878.324252014TT2.7160.789430.1933612583662.466690573010.38691753788128162114128WETL
2024-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.95220.5727.761143.870765543270.1287402271.7887402276.878.658740227TT2.952157.95288428.9829193401661.7181010104580.397206767159471621151210WETL
2024-03-28 20:00:01FORECAST2024181-10534.75419.77827.266138.360445858050.0948819411.8848819416.878.754881941TT2.754156.75488426.6020976920759.0248564406540.389115965233991621151210WETL
2024-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.21420.85827.536138.441166316740.1098425791.8998425796.878.769842579TT2.214156.21488426.637215294859.0641536795370.367302493983951621151210WETL
2024-03-28 12:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.10621.70427.905141.359960421990.1007874561.8907874566.878.760787456TT2.106156.10688427.9022175520660.4882405376420.36298818729751621151210WETL
2024-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.1620.6627.41141.676493356990.094488241.934488246.878.80448824TT2.16155.1688428.0388397614460.6430418379940.365143207903911621151210WETL
2024-03-28 04:00:04FORECAST2024181-10534.95220.58827.77140.989733080250.0744094891.8944094896.878.764409489TT2.952157.95288427.7422802823260.3072699241410.397206767159471621151210WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:03FORECAST2024181-10533.90821.4727.689141.890124685940.1578741012.1378741016.879.007874101TT1.908156.90888428.1309854290960.7475589044480.355123940982221621151210WETL
2024-03-27 20:00:02FORECAST2024181-10533.20621.23627.221133.52483095460.1590552042.0190552046.878.889055204TT1.206157.20688424.4851637742556.679309735690.3277546918671621151210WETL
2024-03-27 16:00:01FORECAST2024181-10533.96222.4628.211133.699841398390.1598426062.0898426066.878.959842606TT1.962157.96288424.5622341379956.7639033679940.357262791619971621151210WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:02FORECAST2024181-10533.04422.11827.581137.707619185310.2822836172.1422836176.879.012283617TT1.044157.04488426.3178193523158.7072119192790.321561455319491621151210WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024181-10532.75622.15427.455137.498871814480.2574804542.0574804546.878.927480454TT0.756154.75688426.2268192135858.6057067789410.310673557629651621151210WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:05FORECAST2024181-10532.34222.71227.527137.556260600040.2614174642.0014174646.878.871417464TT0.342155.34288426.251841762858.6336094267720.295310044047161621151210WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2024181-10532.28821.48826.888136.101350404040.2196851581.9496851586.768.709685158TT0.288152.28888425.6163473150157.9269596236080.293332125294611621151210WETL
2024-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10532.55821.6527.104133.915964191470.1401575561.7701575566.788.550157556TT0.558152.55888424.657362120256.8684000993340.303282342842921621151210WETL
2024-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2024181-10533.0822.67627.878133.59692708270.1279528251.7279528256.788.507952825TT1.08154.0888424.5169173138956.7141556477590.322933531796521621151210WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.55622.13628.346133.330468732320.0141732361.5641732366.788.344173236TT2.556155.55688424.3995311943656.5853884239210.38107294693231621151210WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2024181-10535.38422.06428.724133.4221196530301.576.798.36TT3.384156.38488424.4399162468856.6296732910150.415009162644581621151210WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024181-10534.4321.14627.788134.0438750388601.626.838.45TT2.43154.4388424.7136383938556.9302618721640.375981032837731621151210WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:02FORECAST2024181-10536.12221.9229.021133.838629965990.0145669371.5945669376.848.434566937TT4.122154.12288424.623328911356.8310045930840.445809435809561621151210WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024181-10533.99820.94827.473132.905903229730.0228346581.6928346586.918.602834658TT1.998150.99888424.2123279959856.3803226134950.358691191310881621151210WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.80821.54228.175132.062970601260.0271653691.6171653696.878.487165369TT2.808154.80888423.8400558167555.9735768309640.391317947097031621151210WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024181-10535.31220.87628.094132.376961323630.0125984321.5025984326.878.372598432TT3.312154.31288423.9788196221356.1250278071550.412028887907931621151210WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024181-10535.02421.3828.202132.6789590787101.546.928.46TT3.024152.02488424.1121789346756.2707624336540.400160078357971621151210WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:05FORECAST2024181-10534.84419.83227.338132.8215334442301.446.928.36TT2.844153.84488424.1751028687256.3395876118870.39278787675344162114128WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024181-10535.83423.25229.543128.9842014626301.786.498.27TT3.834158.83488422.4735581479854.4924145367910.433740204001811621151210WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10536.21223.19829.705129.0662677190301.846.538.37TT4.212163.21288422.5101216790954.5318044786340.449591934783131621151210WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2024181-10535.76222.40629.084129.0772759499101.816.528.33TT3.762159.76288422.5150256705154.5370885614570.430732072082271621151210WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024181-10531.35219.4925.421131.621449037750.0145669372.1945669376.518.704566937TT-0.648148.35288423.6447442241955.7607351120150.260063612014721621151210WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024181-10531.96420.78626.375132.110183495760.0507874292.3507874296.568.910787429TT-0.036000000000001152.96488423.8609279646355.9963449700930.281595440273061621151210WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:08FORECAST2024181-10531.40621.45226.429132.33671645560.0492126252.3192126256.448.759212625TT-0.594154.40688423.9610401486456.1056119583710.261928818986911621151210WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024181-10531.11821.00226.06136.073128765370.0964567452.7764567456.699.466456745TT-0.882148.11888425.603997069857.9132674963360.252060800607431621151210WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10531.62220.78626.204132.903153997540.0570866452.5970866456.679.267086645TT-0.378148.62288424.2111151220956.3789951605380.26945754076261621151210WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024181-10532.64820.58826.618134.952852455130.1594489052.8394489056.679.509448905TT0.648144.64888425.1130302863357.3702160529830.306632264417861621151210WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:04FORECAST2024181-10531.24421.95626.6132.140711663280.0622047582.2122047586.78.912204758TT-0.756147.24488423.8744227000556.0110678714440.256353821157751621151210WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:04FORECAST2024181-10531.17221.72226.447132.171531078290.212598542.042598546.98.94259854TT-0.828148.17288423.8880451177356.0259319289920.253896016606341621151210WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024181-10529.58821.30825.448136.110825488160.2503938362.5203938366.959.470393836TT-2.412139.58888425.6204935664557.9315567240080.20308719132355161115127.5WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024181-10534.12420.44427.284141.962612245250.1484252771.7184252777.389.098425277TT2.124142.12488428.1622401511660.7830300766360.363706049703751621151210WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10533.20620.91227.059138.659847702990.1307087321.6207087327.258.870708732TT1.206143.20688426.7323169174859.170638073720.3277546918671621151210WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:04FORECAST2024181-10531.83820.13825.988140.25694369570.0850394161.9150394167.199.105039416TT-0.162140.83888427.4252733360959.9493624964180.277093068155221621151210WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024181-10530.43421.07425.754139.761926143090.1448819682.0748819686.738.804881968TT-1.566145.43488427.2107930523359.7078033061120.22943226197659161115127.5WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024181-10530.30821.6525.979139.774736487610.15748041.91748046.688.5974804TT-1.692131.30888427.2163468943359.7140523103530.22539143995848161115127.5WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:06FORECAST2024181-10529.24621.50625.376141.060458531970.2586615571.8086615576.868.668661557TT-2.754127.24688427.772845120160.3418336801680.19297051533861161115127.5WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:04FORECAST2024181-10530.18220.89425.538144.645693024080.1948819951.4548819957.458.904881995TT-1.818132.18288429.3150744987762.098576476560.2213911511587161114126WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10531.0120.9325.97143.076191851220.2232284671.6132284677.569.173228467TT-0.99132.0188428.6416637382361.3284169164380.24841143851201161115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024181-10534.03421.97428.004144.512389439360.1728347391.9728347397.589.552834739TT2.034139.03488429.2579834778162.0330968782980.360121569297381621151210WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:03FORECAST2024181-10530.90222.29826.6149.183650886610.299212762.079212767.689.75921276TT-1.098118.90288431.247097930464.3350165035110.24479038666418161115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:04FORECAST2024181-10529.80421.225.502147.325862039320.3263781291.7963781297.829.616378129TT-2.196126.80488430.4588405919463.4177197626560.20963640774017161115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:05FORECAST2024181-10531.60420.69626.15145.1503493694901.447.729.16TT-0.396129.60488429.5310327876862.3465794741710.26882603375056162114128WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:05FORECAST2024181-10531.26220.67825.97143.0109805845501.478.39.77TT-0.738132.26288428.6136260379861.2964549515920.25697020133685162114128WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024181-10530.52421.75826.141145.191511338130.0362204921.86622049289.866220492TT-1.476128.52488429.5486350787962.3668155203190.23234320379436161115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024181-10530.86621.18226.024145.089587688740.0523622331.7223622338.079.792362233TT-1.134123.86688429.5050456135362.3167099783030.24358970440767161115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:04FORECAST2024181-10535.13224.20629.669142.9277086222401.18.569.66TT3.132129.13288428.5778163573261.2556452582740.40460071815277162114128WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:04FORECAST2024181-10535.88823.57629.732141.565446164780.1759843470.6159843478.839.445984347TT3.888128.88888427.9909219874560.5887258256280.43599883382311162113126WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:06FORECAST2024181-10536.64424.63830.641140.649287359110.1885827790.6285827798.719.338582779TT4.644129.64488427.5950757975760.1409426891940.46780573055271162113126WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:04FORECAST2024181-10526.00621.4723.738153.315754663650.1468504730.7168504738.589.296850473TT-5.994114.00688432.9870638128566.3837384480640.11283301426088161113124.5WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:05FORECAST2024181-10524.33221.54222.937157.680200065530.2161418490.6561418498.999.646141849TT-7.668104.33288434.8051417737168.5601617444020.082294234523098161113124.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024181-10523.61221.86622.739165.1761104625901.619.2110.82TT-8.388112.61288437.8810298828172.3274853613940.071256657116599161115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024181-10523.82819.05821.443165.4433240726102.178.7310.9TT-8.172109.82888437.9896015201972.4624555847370.074441940627573161115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:04FORECAST2024181-10529.55225.9727.761161.9659681153102.28.3710.57TT-2.448126.55288436.570939531270.7096348721830.202007631178161115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:06FORECAST2024181-10526.90626.54626.726153.4886461912701.158.019.16TT-5.094125.90688433.0594685192666.4697115433340.13224496025692161114126WETL