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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 27, 2024

[ Tuesday, March 26, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 28, 2024 ]

DAY 179 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.303
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 156

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.41 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 138 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 58.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-28 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024179-10732.0500426.4399829.24501137.5833862511.418.7210.13TT0.050040000000003156.0500486424.95426220425 58.4666463954310.303283861198617 2114128WETL
2024-03-28 00:00:02FORECAST2024179-10630.84823.57627.212137.929732547521.1594494451.5694494458.279.839449445TT-1.152149.84887425.7617089765958.7251986481170.258039675184011621151210WETL
2024-03-27 12:00:01FORECAST2024179-10632.05424.31428.184133.774822882891.1362210861.5462210868.279.816221086TT0.054000000000002151.05487423.9354327661756.7118874320750.303438600183141621151210WETL
2024-03-27 08:00:02FORECAST2024179-10630.9223.4527.185134.101909763571.1874022161.5974022168.279.867402216TT-1.08149.9287424.0799026252556.8699248343960.260648046079111621151210WETL
2024-03-27 04:00:04FORECAST2024179-10631.2823.57627.428134.049281025381.1326777771.5426777778.279.812677777TT-0.72150.2887424.0566653238556.8444911006820.273890149172671621151210WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:02FORECAST2024179-10731.8223.1827.5132.416061162951.1007879961.4007879968.7210.120787996TT-0.18151.8286422.6693867046355.9682153615870.29435615142926172114128WETL
2024-03-26 20:00:01FORECAST2024179-10731.62222.9127.266130.575932924060.9964572311.3164572318.7210.036457231TT-0.378151.62286421.8484548402355.0832555433370.28677038741432172114128WETL
2024-03-26 16:00:01FORECAST2024179-10731.7322.9127.32130.565936684251.0137800751.3337800758.7210.053780075TT-0.27151.7386421.8439847556855.0784550042410.29089660516644172114128WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:01FORECAST2024179-10731.9123.05427.482130.969202361820.972441471.292441478.7210.01244147TT-0.09151.9186422.0242256946155.272176216590.2978345557599172114128WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2024179-10731.8223.0927.455131.118510779681.000000541.330000548.7210.05000054TT-0.18152.8286422.0909127718455.3439318962780.29435615142926172114128WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:04FORECAST2024179-10732.21622.76627.491131.443835159140.9929139221.3629139228.7210.082913922TT0.216152.21686422.2361280209755.5003360098220.30979877414364172114128WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2024179-10731.40622.85627.131130.964368119060.9224414431.3024414438.7210.022441443TT-0.594149.40686422.0220661068455.2698532199840.2786021232621172114128WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024179-10731.04621.72226.384129.729326777930.9799217891.4299217898.7210.149921789TT-0.954149.04686421.4694698522454.676950581380.26524508610815172114128WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:01FORECAST2024179-10732.05422.83827.446129.52921598691.0208666931.4308666938.7210.150866693TT0.054000000000002151.05486421.3797706994854.5809913314450.30343860018314172114128WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:02FORECAST2024179-10731.60421.99226.798130.288374016270.9964572311.4064572318.7210.126457231TT-0.396149.60486421.7198198857854.945189623350.28608538814354172114128WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024179-10731.3722.1926.78130.674472073991.0653549061.5253549068.7210.245354906TT-0.63149.3786421.8925131691255.1305814303430.277251829610331721151210WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:05FORECAST2024179-10731.76622.44227.104131.029529946851.0311029191.4911029198.7210.211102919TT-0.234150.76686422.0511734381855.3011668691220.29227814488325172114128WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024179-10732.46823.46827.968126.042305931531.1169297371.5169297378.359.866929737TT0.468153.46886419.8094310978652.9137487473780.319805885899491721151210WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2024179-10732.75623.55828.157125.962289951361.1362210861.5862210868.349.926221086TT0.756155.75686419.7732321872152.8755975865860.331404830606141721151210WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2024179-10732.39622.85627.626125.981822505541.1303155711.5703155718.349.910315571TT0.396154.39686419.7820693156852.8849101475360.316932888362391721151210WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.34422.8226.582127.840600254571.4539377931.8839377938.3410.223937793TT-1.656150.34486420.6210346371753.7724455477140.24016666943566171115127.5WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.68624.38627.536128.278707237151.5661425781.9961425788.3910.386142578TT-1.314153.68686420.8181994826953.9820146115040.252220655645541721151210WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:07FORECAST2024179-10732.55821.86627.212128.066632563161.4874023781.8774023788.3110.187402378TT0.558154.55886420.7227851912253.8805503420320.323412363339571721151210WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024179-10731.83822.31627.077127.862119266841.2602369011.7602369018.4510.210236901TT-0.162149.83886420.6307241376653.7827358169880.295050331593211721151210WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024179-10731.8223.19827.509125.699490596011.248032171.698032178.4810.17803217TT-0.18149.8286419.6542910310352.7503306090310.294356151429261721151210WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.27222.94626.609125.583174393151.161417951.601417958.4910.09141795TT-1.728146.27286419.6016217763652.694903643190.23766953800959171115127.5WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10731.06423.79227.428125.437760336570.9519690181.3719690188.549.911969018TT-0.936149.06486419.535754803352.6256254636410.2659051461507172114128WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:04FORECAST2024179-10732.30623.77428.04125.511598346380.795276021.305276028.659.95527602TT0.306148.30686419.5692036212252.6608013634180.31335710882019172114128WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024179-10730.61422.89226.753126.746806718490.8570870771.3670870778.710.067087077TT-1.386142.61486420.127827101653.2498604987060.24965678262757172114128WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024179-10729.89423.37826.636136.204948256940.7500004051.3200004059.0710.390000405TT-2.106140.89486424.3476776888857.7982534825670.22479579532544171114126WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024179-10730.95623.46827.212134.01782421980.8507878611.3907878618.9710.360787861TT-1.044142.95686423.3808603396956.7405817190330.26195729512196172114128WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.07423.32426.699134.805959004351.0448824541.5648824548.9310.494882454TT-1.926143.07486423.7298741798257.1213120476040.2308763382834171115127.5WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10731.69423.88227.788134.211383029861.1212604481.4712604488.6410.111260448TT-0.306146.69486423.4666397328956.8340433855580.28951812205815172114128WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024179-10728.27421.99225.133134.482695799931.0610241951.3310241958.6710.001024195TT-3.726134.27486423.58680635856.9650956243060.17429824683486171114126WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024179-10728.20220.76824.485136.272103218581.0720478231.5020478238.6910.192047823TT-3.798131.20286424.3772786090957.8307843142370.17223480719501171115127.5WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024179-10728.6718.42823.549140.677070533240.8570870771.7670870778.810.567087077TT-3.33133.6786426.3079370363359.9717517273410.18592551648274171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024179-10729.15621.52425.34138.821163966650.9421264931.8321264938.9310.762126493TT-2.844131.15686425.4971420483759.0680085236360.20083450027207171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024179-10729.73220.96625.349140.163363677621.2456699642.085669964911.085669964TT-2.268135.73286426.0838949327659.7213519226370.21940167460566171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024179-10725.80818.75222.28141.338517607060.9519690181.8719690189.0210.891969018TT-6.192120.80886426.5959826319560.2944438023280.11250267603404171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:04FORECAST2024179-10728.18418.96823.576141.051220219380.9000004862.0400004868.9410.980000486TT-3.816130.18486426.4709304103960.154245122480.17172138681979171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024179-10728.29220.51624.404139.825197823170.6618113811.7918113818.8510.641811381TT-3.708131.29286425.9362515898259.5566206386060.17481654507891171115127.5WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:05FORECAST2024179-10730.14624.5327.338138.636334572210.8665359011.8965359019.5311.426535901TT-1.854134.14686425.4161856524758.9781406465470.23333398846361171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024179-10728.81423.0925.952138.981137975551.0346462281.9646462289.3311.294646228TT-3.186130.81486425.5671809576959.1458110945460.19026991874634171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024179-10728.9422.26225.601139.320034995960.9716540681.9816540689.3211.301654068TT-3.06125.9486425.7154609493359.3106929177830.19412186549618171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:04FORECAST2024179-10728.56221.70425.133141.118293041570.858268182.118268189.5611.67826818TT-3.438122.56286426.5001334307660.1869708117520.1827078315968171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024179-10728.6722.47825.574140.203068254410.4425199242.0025199249.5311.532519924TT-3.33122.6786426.1012216488359.7406986621160.18592551648274171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:06FORECAST2024179-10728.86822.83825.853139.212601385690.4444884292.0044884299.4111.414488429TT-3.132121.86886425.6684685850359.2584148395840.19191498216702171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024179-10729.17424.63826.906151.778040479290.570866451.760866459.6511.41086645TT-2.826118.17486431.0786516915465.4282730461940.20140009184829171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:04FORECAST2024179-10727.78821.77624.782155.271023665340.4389766151.8589766159.8311.688976615TT-4.212110.78886432.552173928967.1628188346070.16067343496508171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024179-10729.3920.73225.061160.925222960841.1330714782.6230714789.9812.603071478TT-2.61119.3986434.9098734445669.9879683519370.20826121123216171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.66825.2527.959157.898038114171.2688983232.5988983239.6612.258898323TT-1.332116.66886433.6518038101368.4727690462890.251578390273741721151210WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:04FORECAST2024179-10732.28826.16829.228155.482512931241.3917330352.3717330359.6512.021733035TT0.288122.28886432.6409720738567.2681055350560.312644037497431721151210WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024179-10734.68224.47629.579149.485186483450.6283467961.4583467969.4410.898346796TT2.682124.68286430.1042747659864.2942177207210.41267234818875172114128WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:04FORECAST2024179-10733.58424.2628.922156.541192565270.5255908351.3455908359.4310.775590835TT1.584126.58486433.0847642902367.7956054838420.3656294974602172114128WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:04FORECAST2024179-10734.50225.4329.966158.2407205210.5503939981.2603939989.3610.620393998TT2.502122.50286433.7947054260368.6439867448120.40485388603991172114128WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:04FORECAST2024179-10733.1724.6228.895162.440101280890.649606651.719606659.4411.15960665TT1.17113.1786435.5358203469870.748482768620.348362907715751721151210WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10737.56221.61429.588162.314461803720.2854332251.7554332259.5211.275433225TT5.562111.56286435.4839977278670.685350715330.540365822565241731151212.5WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:05FORECAST2024179-10739.50624.83632.171159.123021403760.4759845091.5859845099.4611.045984509TT7.506121.50686434.1620608679169.0851789041870.625033282117131731151212.5WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024179-10740.69425.21432.954161.235473866040.4141734521.5341734529.8511.384173452TT8.694116.69486435.0382651483270.143600831050.674209857992891731151212.5WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:04FORECAST2024179-10731.49622.9127.203172.801962677760.0425197081.5425197089.9511.492519708TT-0.50491.49686439.7533595352875.9902436218340.281991786411531721151210WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:05FORECAST2024179-10733.96222.89228.427174.582396539840.0964567451.6064567459.9211.526456745TT1.96296.96286440.4669316947676.8977725318220.381637008035391721151210WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024179-10733.83632.05432.945160.440073068130.153543390.583543399.039.61354339TT1.836109.83686434.7089000504569.7447276874610.37627710905902172113126WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024179-10730.99228.99429.993154.3489574505400.128.798.91TT-1.008117.99286432.1644675165366.7041350083460.26326990326895172112124WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:04FORECAST2024179-10733.63832.03632.837153.53768176888008.788.78TT1.638117.63886431.8225940924366.3010400323750.36790275290926172111122WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:07FORECAST2024179-10732.82832.52232.675155.0003851362700.028.918.93TT0.828115.82886432.4384711417167.0281295747060.33433055932153172111122WETL