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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 26, 2024

[ Monday, March 25, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 27, 2024 ]

DAY 178 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/27/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.56°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.363
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 163

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.36 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 54.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -108

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-27 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024178-10833.7499625.5599629.65496130.191668750.23999999999990.84999999999998.369.2099999999999TT1.74996162.7499685421.00561609271 54.8114237122310.3627348235722517 2113126WETL
2024-03-27 00:00:01FORECAST2024178-10730.43421.81226.123128.508274439330.1346457420.7446457428.289.024645742TT-1.566152.43486420.9214259047654.0918861175630.22453128775828161113124.5WETL
2024-03-26 12:00:01FORECAST2024178-10730.23622.4626.348127.565071983580.1507874830.7607874838.289.040787483TT-1.764152.23686420.4969239816253.6407203765910.21733792209657161113124.5WETL
2024-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2024178-10730.57822.40626.492127.582186628020.1578741010.7678741018.289.047874101TT-1.422152.57886420.5046357380553.648900914680.22984643376294161113124.5WETL
2024-03-26 04:00:03FORECAST2024178-10729.73222.31626.024127.837093999910.1956693970.8056693978.289.085669397TT-2.268151.73286420.6194558037353.7707689097730.19963869546373161113124.5WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2024178-10830.18222.3726.276127.421424732090.1877953770.8177953778.369.177795377TT-1.818157.18285419.7565235301553.4859742687990.21539939863849171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 20:00:02FORECAST2024178-10829.80422.1925.997125.910108086270.2208662610.8908662618.369.250866261TT-2.196156.80485419.0713620402652.7653204903470.20211281761148171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 16:00:01FORECAST2024178-10830.57822.96426.771125.722016817650.1791339550.8491339558.369.209133955TT-1.422157.57885418.9859059208152.6757531105360.22984643376294171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:01FORECAST2024178-10829.8421.68625.763126.551586687850.1787402540.8487402548.369.208740254TT-2.16156.8485419.362500243353.0709898031720.20335671437144171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.09222.22626.159126.693185201110.1984253040.8984253048.369.258425304TT-1.908157.09285419.4267015343853.1385047757870.21219087479537171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024178-10830.34422.20826.276127.157428135560.1830709650.9030709658.369.263070965TT-1.656158.34485419.6370291214953.3599653735360.22124498770674171113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10831.26223.88227.572121.763324441350.2003938090.4703938098.368.830393809TT-0.738160.26285417.1778357254650.7969601611770.2560299198396172112124WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2024178-10831.6423.91827.779121.673521444950.1586615030.5086615038.368.868661503TT-0.36161.6485417.1366083683250.7544800637760.27113931932199172113126WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:02FORECAST2024178-10831.08223.28827.185121.666091486260.1610237090.5010237098.368.861023709TT-0.918161.08285417.1331969522250.7509657023450.24899228833962171113124.5WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024178-10830.1462326.573121.835385403390.1704725330.4904725338.368.850472533TT-1.854159.14685417.2109111514650.8310521546360.21411263096213171113124.5WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10831.24424.20627.725121.931213634880.1885827790.5385827798.368.898582779TT-0.756162.24485417.2548861936150.8763946686710.25532152375872172113126WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:07FORECAST2024178-10830.50621.225.853121.884533277790.185039470.415039478.368.77503947TT-1.494160.50685417.2334661745950.8543062925630.22718011464877171112123WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.4722.38826.429122.258927682520.2570867530.5370867538.499.027086753TT-1.53157.4785417.4051914795951.0315111194130.22585350904179171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.88423.19827.041120.255406236990.2003938090.5603938098.459.010393809TT-1.116156.88485416.4843222828450.0844913674590.2413712321668171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.25422.74826.501120.304597124420.1842520680.5642520688.459.014252068TT-1.746155.25485416.5069878222250.1077053694560.21798632430444171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10831.04623.86427.455121.158361515410.2110237360.5910237368.459.041023736TT-0.954157.04685416.8999235278150.5109116505290.24759719930899171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.54223.34226.942122.010910440790.2905513380.6705513388.579.240551338TT-1.458154.54285417.2914504626150.9141097901010.22851109336329171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024178-10829.04822.7325.889122.725612582280.2578741550.6978741558.599.287874155TT-2.952151.04885417.6190195929251.252550005550.17705277137238171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10829.2122.85626.033132.414676387010.2925198430.7525198438.979.722519843TT-2.79150.2185422.0016249133155.879208597690.1822509483333171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024178-10829.10221.93825.52129.80235755120.3062993780.6262993788.969.586299378TT-2.898151.10285420.8306074880654.6248049816560.178775017468171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024178-10828.65222.1925.421129.552504892150.2618111650.6018111658.939.531811165TT-3.348151.65285420.7181990264554.5050965375920.16474421203016171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10829.55222.67626.114128.757409913560.1429134630.3929134638.689.072913463TT-2.448153.55285420.3600115059254.1244663127380.19353346247025171112123WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10828.2221.23624.728128.723198914990.1484252770.3784252778.649.018425277TT-3.78145.2285420.3445833320654.1080994130890.15196334443039171112123WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024178-10827.73421.18224.458130.040529277860.2724410920.5624410928.649.202441092TT-4.266141.73485420.9376943176854.7389605620720.13839117624656171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10826.90620.26423.585135.059129578230.4452758311.0352758318.759.785275831TT-5.094143.90685423.1791595374957.154208942780.11721627430374171114126WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024178-10827.17622.11824.647133.109645028650.4503939441.1703939448.739.900393944TT-4.824141.17685422.3118504157756.2137805002360.12385382606573171114126WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024178-10828.1321.52424.827132.778001121340.4401577181.1301577188.799.920157718TT-3.87145.1385422.1638769402856.0540757257660.14938565264175171114126WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024178-10826.18619.65222.919135.056241311070.5326774531.1526774538.8710.022677453TT-5.814134.18685423.17787774657.1528135743710.10075533520771171114126WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:04FORECAST2024178-10826.97819.9423.459135.164036294750.562992431.362992438.810.16299243TT-5.022140.97885423.2257099850157.2048952252840.11896121338593171114126WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024178-10827.12220.31823.72135.633189471520.5586617191.2986617198.7610.058661719TT-4.878142.12285423.4337364681957.4316682070230.12250576216015171114126WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2024178-10830.12823.61226.87133.458336323360.4574805621.5974805629.0410.637480562TT-1.872143.12885422.4672957589156.3817824430150.21347092504255171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.3822.7326.555132.620164707420.3519686941.5619686948.7810.341968694TT-1.62141.3885422.0934094148355.9780974785120.22255620046639171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:03FORECAST2024178-10828.72421.59625.16133.230231620350.279527711.609527718.810.40952771TT-3.276135.72485422.3656230646556.2718697893750.16694000634033171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:04FORECAST2024178-10828.1321.70424.917135.564922345040.5732286561.8532286569.0510.903228656TT-3.87133.1385423.4034816565757.3986601113910.14938565264175171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10829.51623.23426.375137.461438688750.933071371.993071379.1811.17307137TT-2.484132.51685424.2420364795758.3169206867270.19232619425641171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024178-10829.87623.6326.753136.39297232020.9326776691.9826776699.0711.052677669TT-2.124131.87685423.7701052391757.7992642340160.20460515842829171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.6522.1926.42147.718223567560.6385830221.5185830229.410.918583022TT-1.35127.6585428.7077902997363.3279532126490.23253015289537171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:04FORECAST2024178-10829.01221.54225.277151.99563574560.6385830221.7785830229.5511.328583022TT-2.988122.01285430.5360508694865.4396007633070.17591043707304171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:04FORECAST2024178-10829.26423.41426.339152.579471059590.8173232761.9473232769.611.547323276TT-2.736129.26485430.7840579128765.7288036972510.18400460787245171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10829.60622.02825.817149.317576792520.500000271.660000279.4111.07000027TT-2.394124.60685429.3937153100464.1160290600310.19535298981114171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:04FORECAST2024178-10830.93823.9927.464146.481267095730.4531498511.3931498519.3210.713149851TT-1.062128.93885428.1753745143862.7196713980550.24343706985972171114126WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024178-10830.0222.38826.204145.344987613560.3921261961.0721261969.2810.352126196TT-1.98129.0285427.6848162342762.1618443180780.20964425208819171114126WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:04FORECAST2024178-10830.54223.59427.068152.647998158310.3082678831.2082678839.1210.328267883TT-1.458131.54285430.8131433869865.7627639183120.22851109336329171114126WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024178-10831.85622.85627.356154.152623007460.283464720.793464729.3610.15346472TT-0.144126.85685431.4504884379666.509224490560.2799682834713172113126WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:04FORECAST2024178-10830.4723.1826.825157.40506375540.3877954851.1677954859.4210.587795485TT-1.53119.4785432.8198967935968.1280434494020.22585350904179171114126WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10828.36421.77625.07160.138085944870.7708665581.8208665589.2511.070866558TT-3.636113.36485433.9618940717769.4938270896640.15614859189624171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024178-10831.11824.76427.941156.157925040430.6031499321.3231499329.3310.653149932TT-0.882121.11885432.2961380869167.5064679266420.25039154295757172114128WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:06FORECAST2024178-10831.51423.84627.68159.286962730060.3527560961.5327560969.5211.052756096TT-0.486114.51485433.6071006238469.0679580765590.266053916598511721151210WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:04FORECAST2024178-10829.78621.1125.448172.426031060580.6051184372.1751184379.3511.525118437TT-2.21498.78685438.9996028167875.6949591508660.20149257679484171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:05FORECAST2024178-10829.78622.4626.123173.817801270820.7200791292.0800791299.4311.510079129TT-2.214101.78685439.5603393156176.4034117056940.20149257679484171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024178-10837.74222.80230.272159.22959530530.4267718840.6367718848.99.536771884TT5.742114.74285433.5831592258169.039270974720.55462441582159173113127.5WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10837.47223.59430.533154.3489574505400.328.678.99TT5.472126.47285431.5334743654166.6067418733110.54153972733516173112125WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024178-10837.99421.03829.516153.5709409688800.188.688.86TT5.994122.99485431.2043821194266.2204627119830.56678362644127173112125WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:07FORECAST2024178-10837.99422.56830.281155.011405936270.0248031630.2748031638.749.014803163TT5.994121.99485431.8131704909666.9359666596030.56678362644127173112125WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024178-10830.7425.19627.968161.840749353110.1212599080.2712599088.418.681259908TT-1.26109.7485434.6693569557370.3472144505490.23590912476884171112123WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024178-10825.723.55824.629167.431661431630.2129922410.7829922418.289.062992241TT-6.3104.785436.9710003142173.1627805800480.090637348931739171113124.5WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024178-10828.27424.13426.204170.667521568340.2606300621.1206300628.389.500630062TT-3.726106.27485438.2882686155374.8015725370930.15352402032512171114126WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024178-10825.4323.6324.53168.3831528141800.429.39.72TT-6.5795.4385437.359462003673.6439651252810.085351577672935171112123WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024178-10826.63624.8925.763174.54296076860.3889765881.2089765889.1410.348976588TT-5.36496.63685439.8517175201376.7730210751170.11083395961519171114126WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:07FORECAST2024178-10827.87827.73427.806173.108777990020.2661418760.8561418769.2810.136141876TT-4.12292.87885439.2749254646476.042345548840.1423237678274171113124.5WETL