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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 25, 2024

[ Sunday, March 24, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 ]

DAY 177 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/26/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.259
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 159

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.18 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 127 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 418.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 53.24 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -109

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024177-10931.0299826.3600628.69502127.07651750.169999999999960.789999999999968.188.97TT-0.97002159.0299884418.92156252287 53.2350932710640.2587526128135417 2113126WETL
2024-03-26 00:00:01FORECAST2024177-10829.08422.47825.781126.659523508380.1874016760.8074016768.188.987401676TT-2.916159.08485419.4114412901453.1224533077740.18857070738569161113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 12:00:01FORECAST2024177-10829.22823.79226.51125.828125077890.2334646930.8534646938.189.033464693TT-2.772159.22885419.0341194520552.7262775943160.19332449289555161113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 08:00:02FORECAST2024177-10829.33623.50426.42125.904290009520.259842660.879842668.189.05984266TT-2.664159.33685419.0687193063352.7625495694640.19693727361954161113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 04:00:04FORECAST2024177-10829.89423.37826.636126.417354190190.279527710.899527718.189.07952771TT-2.106159.89485419.3016174071953.0070010802850.21624405603279161113124.5WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2024177-10931.38823.43227.41120.928263364340.2003938090.4503938098.188.630393809TT-0.612159.38884416.1045956051550.318806124450.27299247780001172112124WETL
2024-03-24 20:00:02FORECAST2024177-10931.08223.77427.428121.020003570430.2937009460.5337009468.188.713700946TT-0.918160.08284416.1469526575150.3621056964340.26079755980858172113126WETL
2024-03-24 16:00:01FORECAST2024177-10930.93824.13427.536121.002528077330.2803151120.5203151128.188.700315112TT-1.062159.93884416.1388848691850.353857100450.25515719530722172113126WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:02FORECAST2024177-10929.64224.1726.906121.10321479370.2562993510.4962993518.188.676299351TT-2.358158.64284416.1853632874450.4013854441930.20739274429847171113124.5WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2024177-10931.15424.69227.923121.15134556030.2381891050.5281891058.188.708189105TT-0.846161.15484416.2075769340950.4241079779570.26364157334047172113126WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:06FORECAST2024177-10929.87622.87426.375121.039764263510.1992127060.4092127068.188.589212706TT-2.124159.87684416.1560750066850.3714332156370.21560466946904171112123WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.93823.05426.996121.068967887720.2444883210.5944883218.188.774488321TT-1.062156.93884416.1695557631750.3852185825380.25515719530722172113126WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:02FORECAST2024177-10930.36224.31427.338119.350721754330.2543308460.6343308468.188.814330846TT-1.638156.36284415.3746880982849.575268823010.23324858789195171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.71423.14426.429119.434517365690.2555119490.6455119498.188.825511949TT-2.286154.71484415.4135328073149.6147147980180.20989962511191171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.85823.6326.744120.217759126360.2066930250.6466930258.188.826693025TT-2.142155.85884415.7762167153649.9836850715570.21496637845081171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.80422.56826.186120.677750305760.2181103540.7681103548.188.948110354TT-2.196153.80484415.9888818026450.2006024081520.21305809008778171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:04FORECAST2024177-10929.08422.85625.97121.507396462820.2543308460.8543308468.189.034330846TT-2.916152.08484416.3718197029250.592255772590.18857070738569171113124.5WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2024177-10929.19223.30626.249130.949434543190.2751969991.1651969998.269.425196999TT-2.808151.19284420.6735792643555.0869673319250.19212925791642171114126WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024177-10929.1222.85625.988128.227743822760.2346457960.8846457968.49.284645796TT-2.88152.1284419.4441516038753.7843772198170.18975235983409171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.55223.52226.537128.224737405620.263779670.873779678.49.27377967TT-2.448152.55284419.4427888563553.7829414577860.20428411418443171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.222.29826.249128.050217609470.2055119220.5255119228.48.925511922TT-1.8154.284419.3636647576553.6996085297210.22728007363403171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024177-10928.2221.14624.683127.929788349820.1161417950.4561417958.418.866141795TT-3.78147.2284419.3090438674453.6421172351270.1615811750493171112123WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024177-10927.37420.31823.846128.489519831070.15748040.53748048.398.9274804TT-4.626144.37484419.5627694318653.9094187832930.13771818740662171113124.5WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024177-10927.03221.81224.422132.314792074940.456693160.846693168.499.33669316TT-4.968147.03284421.2871374051855.7425199896140.128789113121171113124.5WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:03FORECAST2024177-10927.30222.74825.025130.497036441040.4393703161.0793703168.379.449370316TT-4.698144.30284420.4698128968754.870064495960.13580422957999171114126WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:02FORECAST2024177-10928.1322.98225.556130.219565649590.3964569071.0664569078.419.476456907TT-3.87147.1384420.3447203170654.7371069027850.15892184950226171114126WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024177-10926.22221.2923.756131.807453214430.3917324951.0817324958.419.491732495TT-5.778138.22284421.0594001770755.4987671893340.10926254992631171114126WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:04FORECAST2024177-10927.66221.70424.683131.768086370430.582677481.222677488.389.60267748TT-4.338143.66284421.0417166859755.4798612898290.14555698968954171114126WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024177-10928.27422.1925.232132.326914137990.5653546361.1353546368.369.495354636TT-3.726145.27484421.2925752385955.748346430570.16319057909432171114126WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2024177-10929.24622.6425.943130.755926754230.5657483371.7157483378.4610.175748337TT-2.754143.24684420.5864493337454.9941709629050.19392380444437171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024177-10929.24622.96426.105130.479672032290.5822837791.6222837798.379.992283779TT-2.754141.24684420.4619870597554.8617421736030.19392380444437171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024177-10927.19422.49624.845131.464323287110.7330712621.7230712628.4110.133071262TT-4.806137.19484420.9052075660555.3340182806920.13296749090596171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.33622.6425.988132.090990527670.6909452551.9009452558.4310.330945255TT-2.664135.33684421.1867122351855.6349700162370.19693727361954171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:03FORECAST2024177-10928.99421.9225.457132.150576919890.633858611.583858618.6610.24385861TT-3.006132.99484421.213455667855.6636011729210.18563643989604171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024177-10929.82221.93825.88131.09402367820.6314964041.5314964048.5910.121496404TT-2.178131.82284420.7386548516955.1563231814610.21369308763071171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.58821.1125.349143.715404551550.5543310081.3743310088.9110.284331008TT-2.412126.58884426.328075341561.2699118193880.20552422990489171114126WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:04FORECAST2024177-10927.55420.4824.017147.840205439560.7771657741.6571657749.0310.687165774TT-4.446122.55484428.1162497073763.292794308750.14258307998357171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10928.52621.61425.07147.269837870060.6724413081.6024413089.1310.732441308TT-3.474129.52684427.8701000194763.0123602593130.17083797411722171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024177-10928.70621.5625.133146.058383210970.8303154092.0303154098.5410.570315409TT-3.294124.70684427.3460961011962.4174798680610.17643817919303171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024177-10929.24621.25425.25143.737355816030.5307089481.5807089488.6810.260708948TT-2.754128.24684426.3376412753961.2806452417690.19392380444437171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024177-10929.17419.77824.476142.767167195250.4421262231.2721262238.699.962126223TT-2.826129.17484425.914342391960.8065841311220.19153333588998171114126WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:04FORECAST2024177-10930.7420.98425.862150.31980486770.5082679911.3882679918.6310.018267991TT-1.26130.7484429.1822184039364.5145873231640.24750699209386171114126WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.95623.55827.257152.05462537340.4322836981.3622836988.519.872283698TT-1.044124.95684429.9240283023865.3719370625410.25585874045303172114128WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.05624.24227.149154.50569860910.6803153281.6203153288.5810.200315328TT-1.944119.05684430.9665520788766.5867882060990.22204763910358171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024177-10927.42818.93223.18154.410503158480.6964570691.8464570698.4510.296457069TT-4.572115.42884430.9261832843766.5395287851040.13916564562413171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024177-10930.14620.71425.43152.121494367170.5055120841.6455120848.410.045512084TT-1.854120.14684429.9525561355165.4050253463180.22530982783824171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024177-10927.71621.23624.476156.925439505880.767716951.907716958.7910.69771695TT-4.284112.71684431.9894022230567.7901268057350.14705943272971171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:04FORECAST2024177-10926.13219.18422.658167.393513267020.8909453632.1809453638.7410.920945363TT-5.86899.13284436.3426531779773.0409297037140.10723144759831171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024177-10927.5920.31823.954167.838976065470.7921264121.8521264128.9410.792126412TT-4.41101.5984436.5253479822173.2659674319550.14356979675849171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024177-10931.33418.89625.115156.5796137190300.818.39.11TT-0.666107.33484431.8436027433967.6179045045940.27082008134888172113126WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10932.61221.86627.239154.545560650540.1212599080.9112599088.088.991259908TT0.612118.61284430.9834531656166.6065794005860.32441365064988172113126WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.68619.3124.998153.7011241688800.728.148.86TT-1.314114.68684430.6250548736666.1875550293670.24544201569527171113124.5WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:07FORECAST2024177-10930.61420.31825.466154.988198718300.888.118.99TT-1.386113.61484431.1710120986666.8264185047170.24270315618662171113124.5WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.16422.60426.384160.660966692390.1122047850.6122047857.958.562204785TT-1.836109.16484433.5561570101969.6555513006940.22596550139822171113124.5WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024177-10930.16423.10826.636165.117536686250.4677167881.0277167887.828.847716788TT-1.836109.16484435.4059884923671.8931642782990.22596550139822171114126WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10932.12626.31229.219167.982499554850.6744098131.3844098137.869.244409813TT0.126108.12684436.5841663354773.3384995271010.30351681424444172114128WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10932.4524.65628.553168.383152814180.1618111110.8518111118.879.721811111TT0.45100.4584436.7482473869473.5410468810810.31738211238705172113126WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024177-10932.9923.9928.49170.691933936680.4484254391.2484254398.719.958425439TT0.9999.9984437.69052466274.7102421203150.34106225569526172114128WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:07FORECAST2024177-10934.77225.01629.894170.449443660290.3539371991.0239371998.859.873937199TT2.77294.77284437.5918171974274.5872817915980.4232707605609172114128WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024177-10926.54623.84625.196177.449205731640.23622061.26622066.067.3262206TT-5.45473.54684440.4168120403778.1516134874260.11680228074309171114126WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024177-10928.0422.98225.511177.940366551410.1346457421.1246457426.027.144645742TT-3.9671.0484440.613157451878.4028667443460.15629129566393171114126WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024177-10927.91423.4525.682180.728678823880.3125985941.4925985946.027.512598594TT-4.08678.91484441.7231767366879.8320461375080.15265685160594171114126WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024177-10927.53623.79225.664167.7862251873800.285.655.93TF-4.46474.53684436.5037243909373.2393121957870.14209144044284171112123WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2024177-10921.50617.83419.67167.7703068993500.245.655.89TF-10.49469.50684436.497198611973.2312689718270.035629899218112171112123WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:06FORECAST2024177-10921.43420.94821.191167.3271435971400.225.65.82TF-10.56666.43484436.3154157124673.0074122185650.034947908956096171112123WETL