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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 24, 2024

[ Saturday, March 23, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, March 25, 2024 ]

DAY 176 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/25/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.339
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 157

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 417.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 52.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-25 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024176-11032.5099427.3799429.94494125.457426250.440000000000050.940000000000057.868.8000000000001TT0.50994156.5099483417.49977960345 52.3784478089910.3386059396870517 2113126WETL
2024-03-25 00:00:01FORECAST2024176-10933.3525.3429.345120.236020694310.0728346850.5728346857.868.432834685TT1.35160.3584415.7846642186849.9922934913740.37980681981758162113126WETL
2024-03-24 12:00:01FORECAST2024176-10933.90824.13429.021120.168925635590.055118140.555118147.868.41511814TT1.908160.90884415.7536252144749.9606664711260.40798355075465162113126WETL
2024-03-24 08:00:02FORECAST2024176-10934.64625.4330.038120.317222370750.1051181670.6051181677.868.465118167TT2.646161.64684415.8222220446150.030574756440.4459689855103162113126WETL
2024-03-24 04:00:06FORECAST2024176-10934.71824.09829.408120.284481129840.0299212760.5299212767.868.389921276TT2.718161.71884415.8070793258850.0151387868270.44970748093054162113126WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:02FORECAST2024176-11035.36624.72830.047120.101755199910.0413386050.6713386057.868.531338605TT3.366155.36683415.0289547269449.8457059214910.48351530172982172113126WETL
2024-03-23 20:00:01FORECAST2024176-11035.09624.5329.813118.363806711520.1098425790.6998425797.868.559842579TT3.096155.09683414.2199063535449.0286449316960.46940022341664172113126WETL
2024-03-23 16:00:02FORECAST2024176-11034.41224.74629.579118.400856321150.1177165990.7077165997.868.567716599TT2.412154.41283414.2371909406849.0460381274460.43385369592513172113126WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2024176-11034.66426.630.632119.392194088510.1712599350.7612599357.868.621259935TT2.664154.66483414.6990717620349.5118320641360.44690317244093172113126WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:03FORECAST2024176-11033.87226.63630.254119.799210464470.1570866990.8670866997.868.727086699TT1.872152.87283414.8883709701949.7032992731190.40614954417055172113126WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024176-11033.31426.2429.777120.442217306120.1948819950.9248819957.868.784881995TT1.314152.31483415.1870284476350.0060463029720.3780089474624172113126WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2024176-11033.31425.95229.633129.75767289810.181102461.291102467.869.15110246TT1.314151.31483419.459501689254.4280888141850.3780089474624172114128WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024176-11033.29625.46629.381127.183760545280.0937008381.1937008387.869.053700838TT1.296152.29683418.2890827971453.1995785451750.37711099796595172114128WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:03FORECAST2024176-11033.56625.57429.57127.054349574380.0818898081.1518898087.869.011889808TT1.566151.56683418.2300342900653.1379449791960.39064739020601172114128WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024176-11034.10625.37629.741127.178996552310.0440945120.8640945127.868.724094512TT2.106153.10683418.2869093945253.1973094077620.41810561378734172113126WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024176-11032.55824.13428.346127.378701929950.1129921870.8929921877.868.752992187TT0.558147.55883418.3779953290553.2924459610690.3409171258762172113126WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024176-11031.80223.23427.518127.713181428290.1342520410.9142520417.868.774252041TT-0.198145.80283418.5304484918153.4518551014970.30530211606582172113126WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:03FORECAST2024176-11034.37622.71228.544129.937937944760.1311024330.9811024337.98.881102433TT2.376149.37683419.5411861124954.5143166063540.43199501514293172113126WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2024176-11032.88223.93628.409128.276489349040.2783466071.0983466077.919.008346607TT0.882145.88283418.7869073114853.7205142552580.35665038483551172114128WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2024176-11033.69223.73828.715128.238017794320.2909450391.1709450397.919.080945039TT1.692147.69283418.7694039280753.7021582726460.39701112891174172114128WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:02FORECAST2024176-11031.47821.39826.438129.718894434910.2311024871.1911024877.919.101102487TT-0.522141.47883419.4419249169254.4095427798730.29056050668574172114128WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024176-11032.4522.71227.581128.80515875780.2192914571.0892914577.939.019291457TT0.45145.4583419.0272625949353.9728730823870.33573194753786172114128WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:04FORECAST2024176-11032.50423.34227.923129.432284514320.1665355230.9365355237.998.926535523TT0.504145.50483419.3119620658754.2725051743680.33832070658756172113126WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2024176-11031.31624.31427.815127.867286941970.5716538521.5116538528.19.611653852TT-0.684143.31683418.6006450181453.5253287906270.283316653300821721151210WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024176-11030.79424.49427.644127.346832660780.6251971881.4451971887.969.405197188TT-1.206140.79483418.3634628037453.2772618890510.2605821232799172114128WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024176-11030.48824.15227.32127.354588764770.602362531.442362537.969.40236253TT-1.512139.48883418.3669997291953.2809572032610.24770507061575171114126WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024176-11029.2822326.141128.447718325360.5877955931.5677955938.079.637795593TT-2.718135.28283418.8647905265453.8022266299640.20042763453413171115127.5WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024176-11027.78822.3725.079128.683455153230.43307111.39307118.229.6130711TT-4.212132.78883418.9719596270253.9147593771230.15002122192471171114126WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024176-11027.73423.43225.583127.616641331450.4236222761.3036222768.199.493622276TT-4.266130.73483418.486459559953.4058364117240.14837286922009171114126WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024176-11029.42622.17225.799140.333897239090.3279529331.4479529338.289.727952933TT-2.574126.42683424.1892442014359.5281298056890.20577087568774171114126WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:04FORECAST2024176-11028.5822.65825.619143.036873468820.3590553121.6190553128.299.909055312TT-3.42123.5883425.3777810985860.8447078514450.17559162565907171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024176-11030.50624.11627.311143.43789428920.4641734791.7141734798.3510.064173479TT-1.494129.50683425.5534215348161.0404866925190.24845303581215171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024176-11027.10422.53224.818141.370767351170.3318899431.5718899438.179.741889943TT-4.896125.10483424.6461356379760.0325500478490.1300352536218171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024176-11027.75222.85625.304140.766508052070.4051183291.4351183298.299.725118329TT-4.248127.75283424.3800182122659.7384932508120.14892097256892171114126WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:05FORECAST2024176-11027.91421.99224.953139.972648607310.2350394971.2150394978.39.515039497TT-4.086128.91483424.029779009259.352571256290.15391456481402171114126WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024176-11029.91223.37826.645147.041139701380.3940947011.3540947018.169.514094701TT-2.088128.91283427.1235831501662.8047384597350.22441643151348171114126WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024176-11030.9225.05227.986149.383262698240.0763779941.2963779948.149.436377994TT-1.08122.9283428.1365148094363.9564294624840.26598272986379172114128WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024176-11030.2924.18827.239150.239287718950.1031496621.4131496628.119.523149662TT-1.71118.2983428.5052311624864.3783207136930.23955728832489171114126WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024176-11027.8620.73224.296149.583342005780.3535434981.4035434988.29.603543498TT-4.14116.8683428.2227669386764.0549926016470.15223789750126171114126WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024176-11029.55222.49626.024148.938771348980.2098426331.5598426337.989.539842633TT-2.448118.55283427.9447422359263.7375641138730.21051469073419171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024176-11028.29220.44424.368151.754571564730.4070868341.8570868348.079.927086834TT-3.708114.29283429.1559482506365.1263770612310.16599127067611171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024176-11026.4218.3222.37160.327465445460.6775594211.9475594218.0810.027559421TT-5.58102.4283432.7906585666869.3882293564650.11196700100848171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024176-11026.618.93222.766161.795551619890.5704727491.9404727498.0610.000472749TT-5.4102.683433.4051947139470.1230325536670.1165384032935171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024176-11025.93418.55422.244156.579613719030.2051182211.2451182217.869.105118221TT-6.066104.93483431.2113879865467.5189125621790.10026637308145171114126WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2024176-11029.320.69624.998153.786939273940.1952756960.9852756967.888.865275696TT-2.7115.383430.0247966337666.1321972862040.20109095500721171113124.5WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024176-11027.8618.80623.333153.701124168880.177165450.917165457.948.85716545TT-4.14112.8683429.9882008258466.0896698462850.15223789750126171113124.5WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2024176-11030.21824.31427.266154.98819871830.2535434441.1035434447.898.993543444TT-1.782112.21883430.536236635166.7280357990290.23663108621077171114126WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:03FORECAST2024176-11031.40624.85428.13159.782397821950.0405512030.5405512037.918.450551203TT-0.594108.40683432.5619110348369.115779351590.28733033619599172113126WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024176-11032.82825.84429.336161.287063927880.0972441470.5572441477.828.377244147TT0.828107.82883433.1926027529269.8683630132960.35401030903484172113126WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024176-11031.87423.16227.518162.886514173330.1885827790.7685827797.88.568582779TT-0.126104.87483433.8603862335270.6700059514740.3086225221087172113126WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024176-11030.1122.6426.375167.159116507470.263779671.363779678.29.56377967TT-1.8997.1183435.6309863498972.8196908015250.23227883639295171114126WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:04FORECAST2024176-11029.94822.6426.294166.965563839980.3657482291.3557482298.159.505748229TT-2.05295.94883435.5511914318372.7220502585910.22583464322925171114126WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:07FORECAST2024176-11029.85820.82225.34167.366948297060.2433072181.2533072188.279.523307218TT-2.14288.85883435.7166243791872.9245617446390.22229860461771171114126WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:04FORECAST2024176-11027.12220.10223.612174.924834980510.5062994861.4762994865.617.086299486TT-4.87876.12283438.8003697767876.7570822725910.13053645558195171114126WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024176-11025.10619.2222.163176.568520411910.4795278181.4495278185.567.009527818TT-6.89472.10683439.4632198779477.5953705093020.082424784413424171114126WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024176-11028.41819.63424.026177.486220610440.9062997021.4362997025.767.196299702TT-3.58280.41883439.8320993495678.064137016710.17014901982017171114126WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024176-11032.84617.625.223167.786225187380.1870079750.3470079755.585.927007975TF0.84675.84683435.8892517850873.136212156770.35488956254184172112124WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:04FORECAST2024176-11031.80217.52824.665167.770306899350.1964567990.3264567995.565.886456799TF-0.19876.80283435.8827011609273.1281745458860.30530211606582172112124WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:06FORECAST2024176-11030.45217.63624.044167.327143597140.200787510.310787515.515.82078751TF-1.54874.45283435.7002261723272.9044743100420.2462127495006171112123WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:05FORECAST2024176-11030.21823.9927.104170.5830465034500.363.834.19TF-1.78283.21883437.0360858395474.5509469544520.23663108621077171112123WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024176-11032.48624.81828.652172.697703505210.0704724790.6804724793.784.460472479TF0.48690.48683437.8978064047975.6239455360770.33745693046552172113126WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:05FORECAST2024176-11032.21628.86830.542172.480416830720.1437008650.9337008653.44.333700865TF0.21688.21683437.8094755165975.5135608295420.32460509501137172113126WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024176-11027.98624.60226.294168.564431894800.323.583.9TF-4.01481.98683436.2091732367173.5293514739450.15616900921466171112123DRYL
2024-03-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024176-11031.11828.68829.903170.262992071960.3775592590.6675592593.494.157559259TF-0.88296.11883436.9052602403574.3887968604990.27458229818424172113126WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024176-11030.88428.92229.903168.393198575770.1598426060.5898426063.544.129842606TF-1.116107.88483436.1388333246873.4428131666470.26443394016834172113126WETL