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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 23, 2024

[ Friday, March 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 24, 2024 ]

DAY 175 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/24/2024 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.566
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 151

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.18 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 120 in
SWE DAY: 82
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 414.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-24 04:00:05OBSERVATION2024175-11137.7200429.1999233.45998120.232699166670.179999999999950.739999999999957.678.41TT5.72004150.7200482414.39376664957 49.823681082120.5657686244565217 3113127.5WETL
2024-03-24 00:00:01FORECAST2024175-11033.60226.25829.93120.009161190740.3137796970.8737796977.628.493779697TT1.602151.60283414.9859404502649.8021146193880.37947259393916162113126WETL
2024-03-23 12:00:02FORECAST2024175-11033.90827.0530.479118.83057702870.2653544740.8253544747.628.445354474TT1.908151.90883414.4375478061149.2478529481590.39290422198572162113126WETL
2024-03-23 08:00:02FORECAST2024175-11033.38627.24830.317119.258196269850.3909450930.9509450937.628.570945093TT1.386151.38683414.6367078968349.4488258910430.37007718903611162113126WETL
2024-03-23 04:00:03FORECAST2024175-11033.20626.70829.957119.729445656220.4129923490.9729923497.628.592992349TT1.206151.20683414.8559379578149.6704714788810.36230619002678162113126WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2024175-11135.18626.52830.857129.083496478560.7137799131.3537799137.679.023779913TT3.186145.18682418.4731487476354.0179772227370.4502111600953172114128WETL
2024-03-22 20:00:02FORECAST2024175-11134.7925.37630.083126.823551256560.5578743171.3378743177.679.007874317TT2.79145.7982417.4402300403152.9412524110670.43228394991342172114128WETL
2024-03-22 16:00:02FORECAST2024175-11133.92626.0629.993126.741911261290.5291341441.3091341447.678.979134144TT1.926144.92682417.4028050138152.9024292732710.39369847666757172114128WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024175-11134.66426.27630.47127.039883550030.2783466071.0583466077.678.728346607TT2.664145.66482417.5393625627753.0441519975280.42660714875979172114128WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:02FORECAST2024175-11133.3524.90829.129126.903466504520.2255906731.0155906737.678.685590673TT1.35142.3582417.4768569004952.9792603260810.36851862394355172114128WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:05FORECAST2024175-11132.37824.65628.517127.115001359370.2492127331.0192127337.678.689212733TT0.378141.37882417.573771951853.0798905892930.32732820245141172114128WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024175-11133.1723.61228.391129.372385516650.2594489591.1294489597.678.799448959TT1.17142.1782418.6047599591954.1558963845440.36075865481479172114128WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:02FORECAST2024175-11132.93625.26829.102127.070023986450.3570868071.1070868077.678.777086807TT0.936139.93682417.5531698509953.0584913085830.35075616287398172114128WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2024175-11133.90826.1530.029126.990253613720.3842521761.1742521767.678.844252176TT1.908140.90882417.5166248607953.0205420790170.39290422198572172114128WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:01FORECAST2024175-11131.4624.8928.175128.630922946480.4614175721.2514175727.678.921417572TT-0.54137.4682418.2667723884453.8020409701690.29025692693548172114128WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024175-11132.1824.60228.391127.78964353280.4185041631.1785041637.678.848504163TT0.18140.1882417.8825127716753.4010573456840.31917000339569172114128WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024175-11132.16224.3528.256128.649781625870.3960632061.1360632067.678.806063206TT0.162140.16282418.275376801853.811035885030.31843259321939172114128WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:04FORECAST2024175-11131.98225.37628.679125.245009379580.5759845631.3259845637.769.085984563TT-0.018000000000001138.98282416.7152247664452.1915022344880.31109838315912172114128WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024175-11131.60424.60228.103124.487026214010.4137797511.1037797517.738.833779751TT-0.396136.60482416.3660578286251.8321723555340.29594079140712172114128WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024175-11130.95624.65627.806124.556333379110.3917324951.1217324957.738.851732495TT-1.044135.95682416.3980122872751.8650096368540.27077662266978172114128WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:03FORECAST2024175-11130.3824.76427.572125.605427774670.6208664771.3708664777.739.100866477TT-1.62133.3882416.8810167744552.3625184430920.24934186052332172114128WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024175-11129.55223.79226.672126.491131296220.5181105161.4781105167.759.228110516TT-2.448131.55282417.2877950842852.7832052763170.22018046091543171114126WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:05FORECAST2024175-11129.15624.7126.933125.461665785730.4826774261.3826774267.749.122677426TT-2.844130.15682416.8149046359652.2942922599450.20695470318646171114126WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:03FORECAST2024175-11130.36224.8927.626138.566054884370.4917325491.6917325497.769.451732549TT-1.638124.36282422.7431404726558.5778492047240.24868684489589171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024175-11129.55224.2626.906141.076994522720.515748311.865748317.739.59574831TT-2.448121.55282423.8566987652759.7964291701260.22018046091543171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024175-11131.20825.95228.58141.039013596630.4688978911.9088978917.749.648897891TT-0.792126.20882423.8399077279259.7779625088320.280434981601191721151210WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024175-11130.18226.16828.175139.59878559110.8696855091.7396855097.729.459685509TT-1.818125.18282423.2019986488559.0784850711080.24218732110558171115127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024175-11130.75826.79828.778138.659825489570.6354334141.6354334147.739.365433414TT-1.242126.75882422.7848538992558.6232740613030.263306066834691721151210WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024175-11130.8326.67228.751138.733989488480.5858270881.5858270887.749.325827088TT-1.17127.8382422.8178383807458.6592055454540.266010424445271721151210WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024175-11132.6325.17828.904144.860299315040.4901577451.4601577457.719.170157745TT0.63125.6382425.5211739841861.6411246282360.33783133512255172114128WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:03FORECAST2024175-11131.125.59228.346148.983588869520.8484256551.6384256557.779.408425655TT-0.9119.182427.3171032892963.6632356333670.276275342876971721151210WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024175-11130.5625.77228.166149.66385891620.8366146251.7066146257.769.466614625TT-1.44114.5682427.6115965757963.9980016608490.255942069382381721151210WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024175-11129.7524.69227.221147.295644665470.8039374421.4039374427.99.303937442TT-2.25115.7582426.5841798459562.8339917745010.22697070285063171114126WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:04FORECAST2024175-11130.14625.98828.067147.68499787170.9259847521.5159847527.869.375984752TT-1.854116.14682426.7535201012163.0250927078890.24089853879442171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024175-11128.63423.84626.24149.184536521420.7295279531.6495279537.929.569527953TT-3.366112.63482427.40414778463.7620896944880.19025714453558171115127.5WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024175-11128.11222.02825.07155.304996196660.610236551.460236557.949.40023655TT-3.888103.11282430.0341746501666.7864558584760.17441223524109171114126WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024175-11128.3121.93825.124157.6282111030.4901577451.5001577457.989.480157745TT-3.69103.3182431.0218282339767.9411997308630.18032121049379171115127.5WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:04FORECAST2024175-11128.0942325.547155.131415589630.5960633141.1060633147.848.946063314TT-3.906106.09482429.9601471724666.7003262779890.17388120896656171114126WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024175-11132.8126.20429.507152.561612351070.5917326030.8617326037.868.721732603TT0.81112.8182428.8603679432865.4276292069010.34541220775432172113126WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024175-11132.68425.44829.066152.568982227510.539370370.819370377.918.72937037TT0.684111.68482428.8635322487265.4312726296790.34009887397561172113126WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2024175-11134.57428.18431.379153.420114432750.633858610.943858617.858.79385861TT2.574108.57482429.2285733689365.8522968440660.42256150661433172113126WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024175-11132.7226.40229.561159.48990439070.456693160.596693167.868.45669316TT0.72103.7282431.8090823917668.8691892656970.34161379033032172113126WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:03FORECAST2024175-11134.26826.47430.371160.705215755610.4555120570.5155120577.818.325512057TT2.268102.26882432.3209964105469.4762390038380.40886975943128172113126WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024175-11130.4724.94427.707161.679251271960.5169294130.5969294137.838.426929413TT-1.53100.4782432.7301408487669.9634851752350.25263062801098172113126WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:03FORECAST2024175-11133.06225.57429.318165.352321021010.4271655851.2171655858.139.347165585TT1.06294.06282434.2639430941771.8065509263580.35612979434494172114128WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024175-11131.89224.8928.391164.428001728520.4307088941.0807088948.119.190708894TT-0.10892.89282433.8793117682771.3419082254020.30745895424804172114128WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:07FORECAST2024175-11130.57822.62226.6165.663895289770.4318899971.1818899978.159.331889997TT-1.42285.57882434.3933932174171.9633016085350.25660706119282172114128WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024175-11127.35620.9324.143170.329023884860.5173231141.1673231145.466.627323114TT-4.64476.35682436.3194190713474.3178607524310.15299527169219171114126WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024175-11125.95220.49823.225171.950293177020.5066931871.1966931875.386.576693187TT-6.04873.95282436.98344360975.1394312420720.118022894694171114126WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2024175-11128.34621.48824.917169.644587566560.2696851850.9796851855.366.339685185TT-3.65479.34682436.0382720500573.9715328251660.18140888157914171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024175-11129.2119.97624.593166.36764787670.0877953230.6877953235.15.787795323TF-2.7970.2182434.6854053708472.3175884578770.20873008626573171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024175-11129.26419.7624.512166.206044972150.0385826980.7485826984.995.738582698TF-2.73672.26482434.6183966997172.2362047875960.21051439606012171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:06FORECAST2024175-11129.26419.92224.593165.616854155690.0244094620.7044094624.975.674409462TF-2.73671.26482434.3738555482371.9396314833750.21051439606012171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:05FORECAST2024175-11131.87425.86228.868170.583046503450.3598427140.8398427143.44.239842714TF-0.12679.87482436.4236400557274.4464740868290.30673332014212172113126WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024175-11131.8225.37628.598172.092020822510.4688978910.9988978913.444.438897891TF-0.1884.8282437.0413612481875.2113310402190.30456096271095172114128WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024175-11137.77822.69430.236171.178254628910.5661420380.8361420383.44.236142038TF5.77882.77882436.6675801968574.7479942311260.56838398133032173113127.5WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024175-11134.84419.95827.401168.56443189480.0814961070.4814961073.473.951496107TF2.84480.84482435.5935792071273.4255842160690.43472122163177172112124DRYL
2024-03-14 08:00:04FORECAST2024175-11136.51821.57829.048166.979544534990.2909450390.4309450393.43.830945039TF4.51891.51882434.9388793241872.6258959701120.51104815333644173112125DRYL
2024-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024175-11136.55424.8930.722166.927652560020.3551183020.6151183023.44.015118302TF4.554103.55482434.9173987176272.5997404254450.51269521606617173113127.5WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:04FORECAST2024175-11133.56625.57429.57164.068596544020.1000000540.3300000543.273.600000054TF1.56693.56682433.7295106930671.1613920991340.37790157288796172112124DRYL
2024-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024175-11136.21233.24234.727165.025349187090.1972442010.6172442013.464.077244201TF4.212106.21282434.127985515771.6421224016160.49704334787322172113126WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2024175-11135.97833.18834.583165.45304226770.1972442010.6172442013.353.967244201TF3.97899.97882434.3058010738871.8572160621850.48633533580567172113126DRYL
2024-03-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024175-11129.7527.30228.526163.50548367200.153.273.42FF-2.2586.7582433.4945285348870.8787325572640.22697070285063171112123DRYL
2024-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024175-11128.36426.36627.365166.580254280410.0818898080.2518898083.593.841889808TF-3.63677.36482434.7735207653672.4246836434830.18195425054124171112123DRYL
2024-03-13 04:00:07FORECAST2024175-11128.11226.99627.554164.4597163074600.173.553.72TF-3.88890.11282433.8925239276571.3578413930690.17441223524109171112123DRYL