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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 22, 2024

[ Thursday, March 21, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 23, 2024 ]

DAY 174 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/23/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 140

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.56 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 118 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 412.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -112

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-23 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024174-11239.6300232.4800636.05504118.379028333330.320000000000050.560000000000058.128.68TT7.63002139.6300281412.82577514479 48.8699141325960.6496433053229717 3113127.5WETL
2024-03-23 00:00:02FORECAST2024174-11137.32828.6732.999126.801127308780.4047246280.6447246287.678.314724628TT5.328142.32882417.4299513316352.9305884013010.55035762207476163113127.5WETL
2024-03-22 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11138.08429.33633.71126.201320445830.5437010810.7837010817.678.453701081TT6.084143.08482417.1547939611152.6454858282010.58364433467288163113127.5WETL
2024-03-22 08:00:01FORECAST2024174-11136.2329.0332.63126.165590367460.5535436060.7935436067.678.463543606TT4.23141.2382417.1383897941952.6285112133140.50143844829107163113127.5WETL
2024-03-22 04:00:04FORECAST2024174-11135.6928.6732.18126.238136886490.5279530410.7679530417.678.437953041TT3.69140.6982417.1716953345352.6629775808080.47732592764249162113126WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:02FORECAST2024174-11238.1229.82233.971128.461509088450.5913389020.8713389028.128.991338902TT6.12136.1281417.5052583488553.6333555398560.58521649909922173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 20:00:01FORECAST2024174-11237.429.49833.449125.806502802520.4618112730.7518112738.128.871811273TT5.4134.481416.2846162435152.3713117400830.55354693323708173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 16:00:01FORECAST2024174-11237.4929.46233.476125.676499716540.4992128680.7892128688.128.909212868TT5.49134.4981416.2246355177252.3096552876580.55752868298653173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:01FORECAST2024174-11236.2329.5732.9126.878674530790.4956695590.7856695598.128.905669559TT4.23133.2381416.7785394985652.8803086644570.50143844829107173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11237.5829.42633.503126.168868574040.4503939440.7603939448.128.880393944TT5.58134.5881416.451699783752.5432397774440.5615046303274173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024174-11237.79629.6633.728127.113421672290.3657482290.7357482298.128.855748229TT5.796134.79681416.886502381152.9918697666540.57102087219494173113127.5WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024174-11238.3930.05634.223123.001574544640.3641734250.8441734258.128.964173425TT6.39134.3981414.9860739626451.0439405115030.59696259848375173113127.5WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024174-11236.87830.2933.584122.853063992160.4125986480.7525986488.128.872598648TT4.878131.87881414.917062740950.9738324603480.53035878484016173113127.5WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024174-11237.05830.233.629123.012895855120.4460632330.7860632338.128.906063233TT5.058132.05881414.991333783451.0492857234740.53837037660227173113127.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11236.28430.12833.206123.050484818290.3590553120.8090553128.128.929055312TT4.284130.28481415.0087963314451.0670335924390.50385086608286173113127.5WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024174-11235.629.33632.468124.228137169620.4429136251.0429136258.129.162913625TT3.6128.681415.5550498675951.623629736480.47331285073281172114128WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024174-11235.67229.31832.495123.338519357750.3956695050.9656695058.129.085669505TT3.672127.67281415.1425520155251.203067687990.47652311520524172113126WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024174-11235.27628.61631.946136.293241007520.62992161.28992168.129.4099216TT3.276121.27681421.0583216219957.3874033070470.458891090278172114128WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024174-11235.13227.78831.46138.665807652440.7448822921.4148822928.129.534882292TT3.132119.13281422.1208213407858.5337246181320.4524976093508172114128WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024174-11235.5129.33632.423138.96339408530.775590971.505590978.129.62559097TT3.51121.5181422.2536372655158.6777985992790.46930248050721721151210WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11236.55429.1232.837135.771142456910.3653545280.9153545288.129.035354528TT4.554121.55481420.8236509431557.1357078614390.51590907931752173113127.5WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11237.27429.31833.296135.935564292650.3850395781.0550395788.129.175039578TT5.274123.27481420.897588157557.2149511556030.547963490736941731141210WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024174-11236.12228.90432.513136.198565191020.3933072991.0733072998.129.193307299TT4.122124.12281421.0157902273557.3417465517270.49661354312354172114128WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024174-11237.65229.333.476142.62162346110.4744097051.0144097058.129.134409705TT5.652119.65281423.8781669882560.4541923255820.564680945163991731141210WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024174-11236.73429.35433.044144.898309672930.3728348470.8928348478.129.012834847TT4.734114.73481424.8815933871961.5646246929430.5239404927391173113127.5WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024174-11233.94428.14831.046145.554948804460.4665356850.9565356858.129.076535685TT1.944110.94481425.1699239392661.8855865121760.40036916490505172113126WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11234.91628.43631.676143.254651861890.2535434440.8335434448.128.953543444TT2.916112.91681424.157750495160.7625708816990.44293094696299172113126WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11235.36628.7632.063143.159572108320.417323060.777323068.128.89732306TT3.366113.36681424.1157862275860.7162344807260.46289252912374172113126WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:05FORECAST2024174-11234.9727.96831.469145.286834590490.7236224381.1736224388.129.293622438TT2.97110.9781425.0522529492661.7544963665550.44531971818156172114128WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024174-11233.24225.57429.408151.782656690620.6633861851.1233861858.129.243386185TT1.242102.24281427.8807367240164.9448749667110.37032015245471172114128WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024174-11233.47625.64629.561154.784011537950.8822839411.3222839418.129.442283941TT1.476102.47681429.1719406375266.4289546114040.38025891719283172114128WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024174-11235.27627.75231.514151.760040050220.4397640170.6797640178.128.799764017TT3.276105.27681427.8709694715464.9337154633290.458891090278172113126WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11234.95227.69831.325149.539109966270.2035434170.4635434178.128.583543417TT2.952106.95281426.9090976084463.8396064928680.44452323611678172112124WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11234.55627.53631.046149.795888848640.1984253040.5184253048.128.638425304TT2.556105.55681427.0205846536863.9659280348650.42706287579029172113126WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2024174-11235.5128.72432.117150.32453776580.2157481480.4857481488.128.605748148TT3.51100.5181427.2498821259864.2261410410790.4693024805072172112124WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024174-11235.07827.3231.199156.934843999460.0370078940.3270078948.128.447007894TT3.07898.07881430.0912080193267.4962966360510.45010313530633172112124WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024174-11234.66427.82431.244158.2779317001400.28.128.32TT2.66494.66481430.6627027427268.1644018505090.43181212750348172112124WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:03FORECAST2024174-11234.23227.64430.938158.604591492530.0606299540.2406299548.128.360629954TT2.23297.23281430.8014046332368.3270807962620.41288107135904172112124WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024174-11232.84623.91828.382162.907806396510.6661420921.2461420928.129.366142092TT0.84687.84681432.6178747508670.4768289835850.35369929414357172114128WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11232.77424.67428.724161.958909436450.5586617191.0886617198.129.208661719TT0.77487.77481432.2190316046570.0017229963670.35070596550276172114128WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024174-11231.56824.22427.896163.023177571740.5767719651.2267719658.129.346771965TT-0.43281.56881432.6663023891470.5346354436930.30206374415701172114128WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024174-11229.67825.37627.527166.513338384120.4535435521.1435435525.426.563543552TT-2.32275.67881434.1246269365872.287540905970.23264775578726171114126WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024174-11229.4823.91826.699168.049770493980.4622049741.1022049745.426.522204974TT-2.5275.4881434.7625209689173.061741868210.22592526036676171114126WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024174-11229.58823.73826.663167.596058381550.2649607731.0849607735.446.524960773TT-2.41277.58881434.5744082729172.8329579000340.22957840229471171114126WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:03FORECAST2024174-11228.90416.89822.901165.632030934330.0744094890.7044094895.456.154409489TF-3.09667.90481433.7576016938171.8441525017490.20700507107514171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11227.98616.8822.433165.867168991680.0940945390.7340945395.426.154094539TF-4.01469.98681433.8556065808171.9624012147270.17886321138592171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024174-11227.62617.11422.37165.398519804730.0940945390.6840945395.426.104094539TF-4.37468.62681433.6602169611571.7267579835750.16851631861536171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:05FORECAST2024174-11233.18822.69427.941167.7848328434600.483.854.33TF1.18875.18881434.6527020207572.9281309535080.36803855562445172112124WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024174-11232.82823.55828.193168.395694636570.1413386590.5713386593.854.421338659TF0.82879.82881434.9057983236673.2362640101820.35295010530853172113126WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024174-11230.09222.1926.141166.726506632280.2192914570.2692914573.854.119291457TF-1.90872.09281434.2132786760872.3948630870130.247056001872171112123WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:04FORECAST2024174-11228.25621.70424.98167.905921347530.2437009190.4037009193.924.323700919TF-3.74473.25681434.7029034228772.9891915116630.18687952177672171112123WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024174-11232.2722.62227.446165.2877193997400.143.853.99TF0.2782.2781433.613987956771.6710671691890.33002032845322172112124DRYL
2024-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024174-11235.31225.62830.47165.14143901520.0653543660.2553543663.854.105354366TF3.31294.31281433.5529357899971.5975557056250.46049118904367172112124WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024174-11236.0523.73829.894163.269007716090.1874016760.2274016763.723.947401676TF4.0587.0581432.7694435209770.6578376135110.49339717129818172112124DRYL
2024-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024174-11245.84223.9934.916163.588637635930.2366143010.4166143013.914.326614301TF13.84296.84281432.9034520085370.8180859419670.85998099234336175112127WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:04FORECAST2024174-11245.19424.81835.006163.988546563740.2366143010.4166143013.84.216614301TF13.19491.19481433.0709652419971.0186781489890.8431778043965174112126WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024174-11240.7323.55832.144163.50548367200.153.723.87TF8.7383.7381432.8685992308470.7763896836610.69411315653019173112125DRYL
2024-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2024174-11236.71618.82427.77165.7626850447900.493.724.21TF4.71675.71681433.812065188971.9098527305380.5231377349319173112125WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:07FORECAST2024174-11236.71621.16428.94164.4597163074600.453.724.17TF4.71688.71681433.2681098832771.2551504364720.5231377349319173112125WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:05FORECAST2024174-11224.5321.36222.946166.0842277101600.473.694.16TF-7.4781.5381433.9460241087672.0715902819990.095579284317253171112123WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:05FORECAST2024174-11226.1517.6921.92159.8657814832800.53.734.23TF-5.8574.1581431.3358355850168.9558404375430.13019304700741171113124.5WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024174-11230.2924.99827.644157.6308563381900.293.734.02TF-1.7196.2981430.3876102955967.8423675682430.25411174707283172112124WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:05FORECAST2024174-11227.06825.59226.33164.007325090360.0452756150.4852756153.734.215275615TF-4.93273.06881433.0788269803971.0280999663230.15325371965479171112123WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:04FORECAST2024174-11228.59827.19427.896162.847894860280.062992160.402992163.724.12299216TF-3.40277.59881432.5927209796970.4468139434250.1973464001818171112123WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:07FORECAST2024174-11227.84227.57227.707162.7780650567700.163.844TF-4.15864.84281432.5633982072970.4118329745630.1746775051381171112123WETL