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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 21, 2024

[ Wednesday, March 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, March 22, 2024 ]

DAY 173 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/22/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.465
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 122

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 80
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.86 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024173-11337.0429.0800433.06002124.909527083330.240000000000010.240000000000018.658.89TT5.04122.0480415.17733834335 51.8596049881850.4648751545128817 2112124WETL
2024-03-22 00:00:01FORECAST2024173-11234.89826.1530.524126.909417117150.2814962150.2814962158.128.401496215TT2.898129.89881416.7926820274252.8949163347950.37428093501188162112124WETL
2024-03-21 12:00:01FORECAST2024173-11234.01625.9729.993125.982356073920.2925198430.2925198438.128.412519843TT2.016129.01681416.3657197838252.4547343667770.33862363217592162112124WETL
2024-03-21 08:00:02FORECAST2024173-11234.19625.93430.065125.941863791010.3141733980.3141733988.128.434173398TT2.196129.19681416.3470479505552.4355232027750.34579638982062162112124WETL
2024-03-21 04:00:03FORECAST2024173-11234.10626.5130.308126.455681062320.3704726410.3704726418.128.490472641TT2.106129.10681416.5838374082252.679392879010.34220289879382162112124WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:03FORECAST2024173-11335.18626.72630.956122.319635309680.3917324950.4817324958.659.131732495TT3.186118.18680413.9713669840450.6368266381380.38617894302731172112124WETL
2024-03-20 20:00:02FORECAST2024173-11335.04226.72630.884121.941941858750.2842521220.3442521228.658.994252122TT3.042117.04280413.7948319729950.4589453419030.3802157755236172112124WETL
2024-03-20 16:00:02FORECAST2024173-11334.73626.81630.776121.944334570860.2838584210.3438584218.658.993858421TT2.736116.73680413.7959508666850.4600718765540.36763972343824172112124WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11333.69226.74430.218122.338018197790.3925198970.4525198978.659.102519897TT1.692115.69280413.9799548778350.6454872533650.32586038476253172112124WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:02FORECAST2024173-11333.69226.65430.173122.858725448550.5232286290.6032286298.659.253228629TT1.692114.69280414.2230460792950.8909154927160.32586038476253172113126WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024173-11333.4426.63630.038122.570364462120.4972443630.5672443638.659.217244363TT1.44114.4480414.088465019550.7549740770010.31607156725724172113126WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024173-11333.72826.47430.101134.259583859480.5681105430.6581105438.659.308110543TT1.728107.72880419.4657209177456.3172931337330.32726883808473172113126WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:03FORECAST2024173-11333.38626.83430.11136.301181575940.6125987560.6725987568.659.322598756TT1.386106.38680420.3886250992257.2994663221080.31399031849131172113126WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:03FORECAST2024173-11333.72827.60830.668136.354345765920.6590554740.7290554748.659.379055474TT1.728107.72880420.4125940919157.3250842191560.32726883808473172113126WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11334.01628.1331.073134.654000294970.503937280.553937288.659.20393728TT2.016107.01680419.6443900331656.5067958193090.33862363217592172113126WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.05228.16631.109135.019758037720.6094491480.6694491488.659.319449148TT2.052108.05280419.8099169905556.6826334139010.34005361369534172113126WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024173-11334.08828.07631.082134.993352102920.6114176530.6814176538.659.331417653TT2.088110.08880419.7979718967756.6699354323530.34148589840581172113126WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.3427.7731.055141.153878145670.5043309810.5443309818.659.194330981TT2.34104.3480422.5631744383759.6464308335210.35157484483473172113126WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024173-11333.90827.06830.488143.728705126360.4169293590.5169293598.659.166929359TT1.90899.90880423.7061462644160.8987357566640.3343476866312172113126WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.39427.1430.767143.678112696750.4035435250.4935435258.659.143543525TT2.39499.39480423.6837600847660.874083029240.35375072080052172113126WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11334.2528.45431.352142.260590523050.3452757770.5752757778.659.225275777TT2.25100.2580423.0553628163860.1841057381990.34795919298188172113126WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.01628.36431.19141.548011836930.1744095430.3644095438.659.014409543TT2.016100.01680422.7386162280659.8378106537760.33862363217592172112124WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024173-11332.79228.32830.56142.349272590030.1960630980.4460630988.659.096063098TT0.79297.79280423.0947425639460.2272288406430.29149729593275172112124WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024173-11332.61227.93230.272148.822589380530.1901575830.4601575838.659.110157583TT0.61290.61280425.9454298335463.3903018026290.28483249031451172112124WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:04FORECAST2024173-11333.58428.83231.208150.955643695340.1291339280.4391339288.659.089133928TT1.58490.58480426.8745532171464.4391229580530.32164996649433172112124WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.82627.93231.379150.035899441470.0661417680.2361417688.658.886141768TT2.82691.82680426.4745449926463.9864919468630.37132454608606172112124WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11334.95228.02231.487148.75213875470.0681102730.2581102738.658.908110273TT2.95293.95280425.9146567402963.3557161170950.37650309732993172112124WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024173-11334.55627.69831.127149.024064761950.0803150040.3203150048.658.970315004TT2.55692.55680426.0334046372163.4892296834090.3603068045551172112124WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2024173-11334.23229.08431.658149.580521528560.0925197350.2725197358.658.922519735TT2.23287.23280426.2761493271663.7626087315430.34723770493955172112124WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024173-11335.63625.39430.515156.825665489420.1031496620.2931496628.658.943149662TT3.63684.63680429.4056022154967.3418193323310.40498171157628172112124WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024173-11335.34826.49230.92158.355569300140.0618110570.2018110578.658.851811057TT3.34882.34880430.0590934361768.1022525737850.39291971495657172112124WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024173-11336.17626.22231.199158.343139656480.0244094620.1844094628.658.834409462TT4.17685.17680430.0537943977768.0960680261270.4278342251856172112124WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11330.8324.54827.689159.114710965840.1240158150.5840158158.659.234015815TT-1.1776.8380430.3824157821968.4801736919630.22305967747081171113124.5WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11332.37825.48428.931158.847951987380.0921260340.5321260348.659.182126034TT0.37877.37880430.2688727981168.3473292478960.27627838966135172113126WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024173-11331.0125.3428.175159.65387476330.165354420.645354428.659.29535442TT-0.9972.0180430.6116700860168.7488216475290.22893223878625171113124.5WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024173-11331.1924.24227.716163.721951423330.200787510.690787515.956.64078751TT-0.8168.1980432.3313461981170.7821316610290.23489042217952171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:04FORECAST2024173-11330.6524.90827.779165.20101241360.2334646930.6434646935.956.593464693TT-1.3567.6580432.9521900582871.5241401243120.21727370788717171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024173-11331.3723.48627.428165.956750903030.4507876450.8407876455.956.790787645TT-0.6370.3780433.2685161733271.90383521270.24093317828715171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024173-11327.89620.26424.08165.150893082030.5346459580.6646459585.956.614645958TT-4.10460.89680432.9311903537471.4989727299850.13998556919918171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11326.65419.70623.18165.260050095470.6165357660.6365357665.956.586535766TT-5.34663.65480432.9769230700871.5537879967440.11212849089125171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024173-11326.97820.3923.684164.766159673410.5948822110.5948822115.956.544882211TT-5.02262.97880432.7699002667771.3058344892020.11898258608354171113124.5WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024173-11330.6520.69625.673167.805496843460.4795278180.4795278184.384.859527818TF-1.3563.6580434.039782833472.8342614081840.21727370788717171112123WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:03FORECAST2024173-11331.6421.61426.627167.489222442260.3901576910.4301576914.384.810157691TF-0.3668.6480433.9080949737772.6749294385620.25015339474649172112124WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024173-11329.76819.20224.485165.151110085140.0500000270.0500000274.384.430000027TF-2.23263.76880432.9312812825371.4990816943930.19020116395446171111121.5WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024173-11332.01824.13428.076165.993388292990.1618111110.2318111114.384.611811111TF0.01800000000000167.01880433.2838358968971.922252013110.26336911372189172112124WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11331.71224.85428.283165.290572999740.1425197620.1425197624.384.522519762TF-0.28871.71280432.9897087599271.5691170639170.25264330494776172112124WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:06FORECAST2024173-11333.47626.76230.119164.734846040090.1913386860.1913386864.384.571338686TF1.47681.47680432.7567658530271.2901191956060.31746231449062172112124WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.48426.61830.551162.884682890290.03937010.03937014.254.2893701TF2.48473.48480431.9788629479170.3627401065790.35738778372004172111122WETL
2024-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.75426.85230.803163.998080035930.1779528520.3679528524.254.617952852TF2.75472.75480432.4474298211270.9205482071370.36837572675729172112124WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024173-11334.57427.12230.848164.378013763740.1779528520.2579528524.254.507952852TF2.57467.57480432.6070197739471.1110826506910.36103784113889172112124WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:04FORECAST2024173-11331.40622.8227.113163.6461956720.1547244930.1547244934.254.404724493TF-0.59465.40680432.2994844772770.7441660256750.2421517802795171112123WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11328.38221.63225.007165.914713044790.1728347390.4928347394.254.742834739TF-3.61861.38280433.2509365171571.8827048086290.15206606667314171113124.5WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:07FORECAST2024173-11330.18224.11627.149164.612826707460.1716536360.4516536364.254.701653636TF-1.81874.18280432.7055752259671.2288878700240.20264159537212171112123WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024173-11332.01824.6228.319166.084227710160.1826772640.4726772644.224.692677264TF0.01800000000000179.01880433.3218137518371.967918786940.26336911372189172112124WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024173-11329.4821.07425.277159.865781483280.1480315760.4980315764.264.758031576TF-2.5270.4880430.7016876422468.8544618810950.18182954055449171113124.5WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024173-11340.40625.6133.008157.630856338190.2885828330.2885828334.264.548582833TF8.40688.40680429.7498522418567.7418372200940.60911169096683173112125WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:05FORECAST2024173-11333.54824.38628.967163.533385764830.4350396050.4350396054.264.695039605TF1.54867.54880432.2520269763270.6876374751480.32025153062898172112124WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024173-11332.5426.83429.687162.236024336220.3366143550.3366143554.254.586614355TF0.5470.5480431.7052671638670.0381462296690.28218705536034172112124WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:07FORECAST2024173-11332.5419.81426.177162.778065056770.1625985130.1625985134.374.532598513TF0.5458.5480431.9339238767170.3093683610290.28218705536034172112124WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:04FORECAST2024173-11323.95419.32821.641167.49295502249004.594.59TF-8.04647.95480433.9096497332872.6768094466020.065673736757356171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:04FORECAST2024173-11330.7428.0429.39161.63388542313004.744.74TF-1.2657.7480431.4508890041869.7370835590090.22015581122106171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024173-11329.96627.46428.715162.10914202761004.774.77TF-2.03455.96680431.6516971167169.9746862743520.19609145468735171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024173-11329.22827.17628.202165.44607792702004.744.74TF-2.77250.22880433.0548325793271.6472235775910.17469614361308171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024173-11323.61220.0321.821164.05312705525004.724.72TF-8.38852.61280432.4705616878570.9481480042320.061050015178418171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:07FORECAST2024173-11323.50421.77622.64153.22125224185004.714.71TF-8.49656.50480427.8559176598865.5566194829350.059643819706697171111121.5WETL