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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 20, 2024

[ Tuesday, March 19, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 21, 2024 ]

DAY 172 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/21/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.10°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.58°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.600
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 110

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 414.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 51.93 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-21 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024172-11441.1000830.0599635.58002125.24909333333008.968.96TT9.10008110.1000879414.63980108776 51.9332591461560.6003559622617217 3111122.5WETL
2024-03-21 00:00:02FORECAST2024172-11339.2928.52633.908121.056595810880.0862205190.0862205198.658.736220519TT7.29115.2980413.3803542847250.0424184648050.52372945446417163111122.5WETL
2024-03-20 12:00:02FORECAST2024172-11337.59827.35632.477121.008739079150.0594488510.0594488518.658.709448851TT5.598113.59880413.357923433250.0199211030280.45123897366555162111122WETL
2024-03-20 08:00:01FORECAST2024172-11337.32828.36432.846121.079216965590.0795276020.0795276028.658.729527602TT5.328113.32880413.3909560606750.0530532604830.43975836583596162111122WETL
2024-03-20 04:00:04FORECAST2024172-11337.1328.11232.621120.822633942650.0736220870.0736220878.658.723622087TT5.13113.1380413.270668471849.9324506960020.43137077585682162111122WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024172-11436.73427.69832.216132.167439290230.0854331170.0854331178.969.045433117TT4.73498.73479417.8320290111155.2237893278380.41469175023283172111122WETL
2024-03-19 20:00:02FORECAST2024172-11436.84228.05832.45134.037379475990.0562992430.0562992438.969.016299243TT4.84297.84279418.6852606233656.1194751591760.41922667357965172111122WETL
2024-03-19 16:00:01FORECAST2024172-11437.7628.433.08134.028523046090.0704724790.0704724798.969.030472479TT5.7698.7679418.6812290829656.1152267611130.45814759916938172111122WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:01FORECAST2024172-11437.428.70633.053132.9224816870.0480315220.0480315228.969.008031522TT5.498.479418.1770338180255.58512911960.44281531997709172111122WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:02FORECAST2024172-11438.22829.7533.989132.92145894350.0614173560.0614173568.969.021417356TT6.22899.22879418.1765669387555.5846393734820.47816962994988172111122WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2024172-11439.0229.58834.304132.826358289070.066929170.066929178.969.02692917TT7.02101.0279418.1331484820855.5391033928170.51215224350133173111122.5WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024172-11439.12829.67834.403139.278128620980.03937010.03937018.968.9993701TT7.12895.12879421.0550702761758.643762234440.51678490459767173111122.5WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024172-11437.05829.44433.251142.127618573440.098425250.098425258.969.05842525TT5.05891.05879422.3304008161160.0248141191590.42832819346509172112124WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:02FORECAST2024172-11435.72629.04832.387142.164585166790.0858268180.0858268188.969.045826818TT3.72689.72679422.3468851755460.0427697274680.37298912937611172111122WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2024172-11436.10430.25433.179141.030750599260.232283590.232283598.969.19228359TT4.10491.10479421.8405740500459.4924927915010.38848252004243172112124WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11435.70829.87632.792140.932489324360.192913490.192913498.969.15291349TT3.70890.70879421.7966270139659.4448486336970.37225622427129172112124WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024172-11435.40228.43631.919141.576410953320.2472442280.2472442288.969.207244228TT3.40290.40279422.0844193966559.7571972174920.35986954387754172112124WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:03FORECAST2024172-11435.04229.55232.297148.033311408490.2720473910.2720473918.969.232047391TT3.04283.04279424.9443711378262.905922423930.34548397751732172112124WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024172-11434.73628.70631.721150.472296844180.3074804810.3074804818.969.267480481TT2.73681.73679426.0125232082764.1030828515310.33342825962703172112124WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:03FORECAST2024172-11434.77228.97631.874149.822717993990.1716536360.1716536368.969.131653636TT2.77281.77279425.7286867648763.7838289791250.3348379844965172112124WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024172-11435.9630.07433.017148.548983126520.1881890780.1881890788.969.148189078TT3.9683.9679425.1707611906563.1586842299980.38255783499955172112124WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024172-11435.31228.92232.117148.755701935860.2409450120.2409450128.969.200945012TT3.31283.31279425.2614315963863.260062763370.35625355264504172112124WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2024172-11434.89829.64232.27149.278214793910.181102460.181102468.969.14110246TT2.89877.89879425.4904025339863.5164477022150.3397902548438172112124WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024172-11434.59227.96831.28156.500641779670.1870079750.1870079758.969.147007975TT2.59273.59279428.6244159120467.0799961726680.32781300150174172112124WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024172-11434.46628.88631.676158.202473231980.1366142470.1366142478.969.096614247TT2.46672.46679429.3545561274467.924952672780.32293130917941172112124WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024172-11435.63627.73431.685158.340261193980.1633859150.1633859158.969.123385915TT3.63673.63679429.4135335806967.9934510673960.36932925069846172112124WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024172-11434.28625.95230.119158.470234319480.4562994590.4562994598.969.416299459TT2.28671.28679429.4691471304168.0580763787430.31601018740891172112124WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11435.49227.48231.487158.400225785040.4377955120.4377955128.969.397795512TT3.49270.49279429.4391938105268.0232652605330.36349811475116172112124WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024172-11434.55627.531.028158.81360314530.4759845090.4759845098.969.435984509TT2.55665.55679429.6159812065568.2288619442180.3264151822317172112124WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024172-11433.87226.27630.074162.617310418420.4874018380.4874018386.266.747401838TT1.87261.87279431.234014365970.1261155771230.30033709309455172112124WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024172-11434.725.55630.128163.921963338510.4110238440.4110238446.266.671023844TT2.761.779431.7854010762870.7791106853310.33202088180767172112124WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024172-11436.01426.09631.055163.418878266180.3696852390.3896852396.266.649685239TT4.01464.01479431.572998168670.5271752506850.38477645597513172112124WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024172-11433.87223.41428.643161.878966970910.098425250.128425256.266.38842525TF1.87257.87279430.9211569768469.7570717373190.30033709309455172112124WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11434.59223.79229.192161.338993274330.0244094620.0244094626.266.284409462TF2.59261.59279430.6919828276769.4874109207430.32781300150174172111122WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024172-11434.73623.93629.336160.96320898333006.266.26TF2.73660.73679430.5323079042669.299861851270.33342825962703172111122WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024172-11434.14224.27829.21164.7867288004.694.69TF2.14258.14279432.149872074971.2125637705610.31051916171676172111122WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024172-11435.74425.32230.533165.068550222170.0381889970.0381889974.694.728188997TF3.74461.74479432.2684779386471.3539309600770.37372249426123172111122WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:04FORECAST2024172-11433.81824.15228.985164.860332004.694.69TF1.81858.81879432.1808565176471.2494794895420.29831890336468172111122WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024172-11440.40628.8534.628165.1040576755400.074.694.76TF8.40660.40679432.2834153950471.3717459475610.57126281402909173111122.5WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11442.45829.67836.068164.5008768004.694.69TF10.45865.45879432.0294831610171.0692287834380.65555920127157173111122.5WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024172-11444.09630.70437.4163.69419221667004.694.69TF12.09673.09679431.6892695553470.6650262684650.71790212558794174111123WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024172-11444.4231.44237.931162.688624004.564.56TF12.4264.4279431.2642009247170.1617794289010.72956062547959174111123WETL
2024-03-13 20:00:03FORECAST2024172-11444.18629.51636.851163.0142824198600.194.564.75TF12.18663.18679431.4019804647370.3246842799640.72116472033263174112126WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024172-11442.0829.60635.843163.403696800.084.564.64TF10.0858.0879431.5665843220470.5195752935710.64046509723134173111122.5WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024172-11433.11625.0729.093162.6601864004.564.56TF1.11659.11679431.2521641356170.1475574037020.2726628814671172111122WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11433.72825.10629.417164.685021997430.3224411190.3224411194.564.882441119TF1.72857.72879432.1070474381271.161558612590.2949690347553172112124WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:07FORECAST2024172-11435.04226.02430.533163.429321899640.2787403080.2787403084.564.838740308TF3.04269.04279431.5774102380170.5324035024020.34548397751732172112124WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024172-11436.55427.89632.225164.74056530030.2889765340.2889765344.534.818976534TF4.55471.55479432.1304358562371.1894122864220.4071590299869172112124WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024172-11433.96225.55629.759158.654791650560.350393890.350393894.574.92039389TF1.96265.96279429.5480849045568.1498619144280.30371436588005172112124WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024172-11437.41829.7533.584155.5645024004.574.57TF5.41873.41879428.2214345262266.6160543790860.44358009800619172111122WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:05FORECAST2024172-11433.87226.8730.371160.01864933056004.574.57TF1.87258.87279430.1302803549868.8288664985790.30033709309455172111122WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024172-11434.62828.6731.649159.75565013021004.564.56TF2.62862.62879430.0181697258368.6978322723520.32921323576017172111122WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:07FORECAST2024172-11429.87622.85626.366161.53901745669004.684.68TF-2.12450.87679430.7769131940969.5872793003990.17016940748649171111121.5WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:04FORECAST2024172-11430.6522.40626.528167.49295502249004.94.9TF-1.3548.6579433.2853008907672.5722354140040.1921027740288171111121.5WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024172-11440.17230.235.186161.63388542313005.055.05TF8.17252.17279430.8171790961469.6346545643410.56135805624772173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024172-11439.66829.19234.43162.10914202761005.085.08TF7.66850.66879431.0187517311769.8720800409510.53990177985311173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024172-11439.1128.23833.674165.44607792702005.055.05TF7.1146.1179432.4272292520271.5433890685950.51601293484455173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024172-11437.20224.51230.857164.05312705525005.035.03TF5.20254.20279431.8407339073770.8448227873380.43441743540512172111122WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:07FORECAST2024172-11436.08624.38630.236153.22125224185005.025.02TF4.08658.08679427.2085208721365.4574245364180.38774048284953172111122WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024172-11431.96422.2827.122164.69172819652004.964.96TF-0.03600000000000138.96479432.1098714890571.1649215063070.23307791505337171111121.5WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:05FORECAST2024172-11431.38820.0325.709154.6989269807800.034.844.87TF-0.61239.38879427.8479753677666.187622700290.21454815852661171111121.5WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024172-11430.57820.49825.538154.4375022067800.034.934.96TF-1.42251.57879427.7350201069466.058328111680.18999250765888171111121.5WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:04FORECAST2024172-11424.7119.56222.136158.64169362873005.055.05TF-7.2944.7179429.5424839156568.1433471338720.06549591654048171111121.5WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024172-11435.09633.40434.25158.12338716142005.035.03TF3.09660.09679429.3206955505767.8856425589510.34762824953002172111122WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024172-11435.22234.32234.772158.18373165401005.045.04TF3.22268.22279429.3465325652167.9156366938740.3526504348691172111122WETL