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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 19, 2024

[ Monday, March 18, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 20, 2024 ]

DAY 171 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.53°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.947
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.37 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 121 in
SWE DAY: 78
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 411.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-20 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024171-11553.5299837.4300645.48002120.75435166667009.379.37TT21.5299895.5299878411.8298712804 49.7302491034320.9472271040222817 5111123.5WETL
2024-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2024171-11447.49833.840.649132.002716008.968.96TT15.49894.49879417.7566733207455.1450155054630.83484698647232164111123WETL
2024-03-19 12:00:01FORECAST2024171-11446.45434.71840.586133.0059632008.968.96TT14.45493.45479418.2151387825855.6251073585980.80565635329509164111123WETL
2024-03-19 08:00:01FORECAST2024171-11446.47235.00640.739132.9936632008.968.96TT14.47293.47279418.2095249804555.6192167122820.80618478272702164111123WETL
2024-03-19 04:00:03FORECAST2024171-11446.92235.40241.162132.91530073333008.968.96TT14.92293.92279418.173755709155.5816904988620.81911001535958164111123WETL
2024-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2024171-11547.5735.04241.306139.4377624009.379.37TT15.5782.5778420.4537447899358.6271293662090.83675001902444174111123WETL
2024-03-18 20:00:02FORECAST2024171-11546.63434.5240.577141.962372009.379.37TT14.63480.63478421.5879798565759.8496296271270.81090122071883174111123WETL
2024-03-18 16:00:01FORECAST2024171-11546.72434.10640.415141.9738848009.379.37TT14.72480.72478421.5931355875559.8552152643780.81349071917128174111123WETL
2024-03-18 12:00:01FORECAST2024171-11547.89435.52841.711140.3785256009.379.37TT15.89481.89478420.8772532569959.0821282707940.84513704500747174111123WETL
2024-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2024171-11548.12835.8741.999140.3883656009.379.37TT16.12882.12878420.8816776374259.0868908345040.85101461231046175111123.5WETL
2024-03-18 04:00:04FORECAST2024171-11548.25434.91641.585140.72271271667009.379.37TT16.25482.25478421.031945158559.2487574630780.85411708442366175111123.5WETL
2024-03-18 00:00:02FORECAST2024171-11547.7535.38441.567147.066952009.379.37TT15.7574.7578423.8592209811862.3356837067960.84144516415233174111123WETL
2024-03-17 20:00:03FORECAST2024171-11547.85834.9741.414149.3506784009.379.37TT15.85873.85878424.865850862463.4540030552920.84421942759546174111123WETL
2024-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2024171-11547.73234.7941.261149.2125248009.379.37TT15.73273.73278424.8051207694363.3862446179750.84097966424527174111123WETL
2024-03-17 12:00:02FORECAST2024171-11548.50636.82442.665147.9576296009.379.37TT16.50674.50678424.2525120654162.7713960370430.86019130677757175111123.5WETL
2024-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2024171-11548.5636.46442.512147.905576009.379.37TT16.5674.5678424.2295515462962.7459161776760.86147029292336175111123.5WETL
2024-03-17 04:00:05FORECAST2024171-11547.01235.52841.27148.62718651667009.379.37TT15.01270.01278424.547578954563.0993122024690.82162886878316174111123WETL
2024-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2024171-11547.69635.76241.729155.7586256009.379.37TT15.69665.69678427.6593910783766.61163897930.84004598785069174111123WETL
2024-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2024171-11547.35434.95241.153157.747152009.379.37TT15.35465.35478428.5170841931167.5973496148070.83099813552442174111123WETL
2024-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2024171-11546.90435.09641157.8643464009.379.37TT14.90464.90478428.5674975415167.6555278876740.81860358848877174111123WETL
2024-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2024171-11546.2235.00640.613156.7037184009.379.37TT14.2264.2278428.0675696201367.0797798859240.79870739303916174111123WETL
2024-03-16 08:00:03FORECAST2024171-11547.46235.61841.54156.8538768009.379.37TT15.46262.46278428.132331754867.1542160191640.83389012070407174111123WETL
2024-03-16 04:00:06FORECAST2024171-11545.75235.16840.46156.90962745009.379.37TT13.75257.75278428.156370283767.181856551560.78437124365792174111123WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:03FORECAST2024171-11545.6833.54839.614160.4601784006.676.67TF13.6854.6878429.6803040838168.9465782482540.78211440154953174111123WETL
2024-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2024171-11545.28433.47639.38162.1078472006.676.67TF13.28454.28478430.3828456375869.7684365781180.76946127650514174111123WETL
2024-03-15 16:00:02FORECAST2024171-11546.4934.95240.721162.028340717410.0185039470.0185039476.676.688503947TF14.4955.4978430.349012724269.7287364610780.80671233727983174111123WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2024171-11545.5934.50240.046161.512956497960.0283464720.0283464726.676.698346472TF13.5950.5978430.1295321347869.4714924121720.77927431922742174111123WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2024171-11546.72434.80840.766161.3103152006.676.67TF14.72453.72478430.0431569552269.370397198050.81349071917128174111123WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:05FORECAST2024171-11546.47234.62840.55161.04635698333006.676.67TF14.47253.47278429.9305789501869.2387534956610.80618478272702174111123WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:04FORECAST2024171-11546.45433.90840.181164.8435056005.15.1TF14.45451.45478431.5428159661271.1370306003510.80565635329509174111123WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2024171-11546.32834.9740.649165.0023232005.15.1TF14.32853.32878431.6099103721171.2166379275410.8019328933756174111123WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:03FORECAST2024171-11547.19234.53840.865164.8794216005.15.1TF15.19252.19278431.5579914808471.1550320222190.82660005815911174111123WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2024171-11543.3432.59437.967165.461544875540.0732283860.0732283865.15.173228386TF11.3447.3478431.8037618881971.4469175250880.70178576000236174111123WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2024171-11545.17634.08839.632164.994648005.15.1TF13.17650.17678431.6066685138871.21279034590.7659405994752174111123WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:05FORECAST2024171-11545.17634.28639.731164.36134421667005.15.1TF13.17656.17678431.3389551931370.8954504885560.7659405994752174111123WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2024171-11545.33834.48439.911163.3689616004.974.97TF13.33847.33878430.9185832048770.3987214723240.77121047412094174111123WETL
2024-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2024171-11542.94433.22438.084163.645715219860.1937008920.1937008924.975.163700892TF10.94445.94478431.0359222453970.5371817812980.68696736329258173112125WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:03FORECAST2024171-11543.57433.33238.453163.92590560.0755905920.0755905924.975.045590592TF11.57442.57478431.1546344194570.6774139008440.71038926387491174111123WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2024171-11547.06634.44840.757162.6681568004.974.97TF15.06653.06678430.621084201670.0483380462920.82312954549864174111123WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:03FORECAST2024171-11546.20230.93838.57162.9881536004.974.97TF14.20251.20278430.756991904970.208286760870.79816677086309174111123WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:06FORECAST2024171-11546.99430.84838.921162.38601906667004.974.97TF14.99460.99478430.5011641744969.9073702538610.82112686989351174111123WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:04FORECAST2024171-11549.17231.31640.244163.26777012465004.944.94TF17.17262.17278430.8756590651570.3481080565560.87541038125424175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:04FORECAST2024171-11548.66830.36239.515156.5314792004.984.98TF16.66858.66878427.9932537882566.9944171030960.86400435423786175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:04FORECAST2024171-11550.55836.17643.367155.8800712004.984.98TF18.55862.55878427.7118974107566.6717610214740.90328629507713175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:04FORECAST2024171-11543.95233.83638.894160.06509413056004.984.98TF11.95251.95278429.5114085260668.7497840358740.7240359437155174111123WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:03FORECAST2024171-11544.27634.17839.227159.84539093021004.974.97TF12.27655.27678429.4174137001568.6403943651390.73547634173269174111123WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:06FORECAST2024171-11541.68430.8336.257161.53901745669005.095.09TF9.68447.68478430.1406373056969.4844959185550.6378724661032173111122.5WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:03FORECAST2024171-11540.8229.31835.069167.49295502249005.315.31TF8.8244.8278432.6585750091372.4672632441010.60278207026376173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:03FORECAST2024171-11543.89833.15238.525161.98074542313005.465.46TF11.89838.89878430.3287559178769.7049726605840.72210587781082174111123WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:04FORECAST2024171-11542.85432.61237.733162.41349322761005.495.49TF10.85437.85478430.5128455889969.9210951314670.68355584639475173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:04FORECAST2024171-11541.73831.4636.599165.72917472702005.465.46TF9.73833.73878431.9166323916171.5811870371350.64003102319784173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:04FORECAST2024171-11541.68433.1737.427164.21607745525005.445.44TF9.68443.68478431.2774865633270.8226971381890.6378724661032173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:06FORECAST2024171-11542.833.90838.354153.32870504185005.435.43TF10.848.878426.6054171266565.410856171870.68150139510683173111122.5WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:03FORECAST2024171-11542.4432.70237.571164.69172819652005.375.37TF10.4434.4478431.4786704783471.0609679210130.66766475983268173111122.5WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:04FORECAST2024171-11539.05631.92835.492154.698926980780.0251968640.0251968645.255.275196864TF7.05635.05678427.2005483418766.0874664340880.52880554777352173111122.5WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:03FORECAST2024171-11541.75630.97436.365154.437502206780.0346456880.0346456885.345.374645688TF9.75647.75678427.0871630344965.9582746836250.64074955548321173111122.5WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024171-11542.4942332.747158.64169362873005.465.46TF10.49447.49478428.9015082721268.0416616722070.66975546649314173111122.5WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:04FORECAST2024171-11549.3735.70842.539158.20810956142005.445.44TF17.3752.3778428.7152871122667.826235114110.87970352574928175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:05FORECAST2024171-11550.95435.70843.331158.22919245401005.455.45TF18.95459.95478428.7243468036367.836707180110.91034052909141175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:03FORECAST2024171-11539.90234.41237.157160.78810787392005.385.38TF7.90237.90278429.8203628042169.1100028609720.56457092022658173111122.5WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:04FORECAST2024171-11539.63231.06435.348161.63018015211005.85.8TF7.63248.63278430.1794780337169.5299865323280.5531995117144173111122.5WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:03FORECAST2024171-11535.22231.02833.125162.87375062202005.775.77TF3.22235.22278430.7084158365470.1510951117640.36807013918937172111122WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:05FORECAST2024171-11525.57421.57823.576164.22403571252005.425.42TF-6.42615.57478431.2808546323570.8266824732690.08574313855476171111121.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:06FORECAST2024171-11535.92433.51234.718162.99644633663005.485.48TF3.92434.92478430.7605124931170.2124327585230.39664611162001172111122WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:05FORECAST2024171-11539.48838.85839.173164.49575850514005.865.86TF7.48838.48878431.3958114750570.9627812245260.54711621412613173111122.5WETL