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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 15, 2024

[ Thursday, March 14, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 16, 2024 ]

DAY 167 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/16/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.976
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.70 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.40 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 74
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 427.58 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-16 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024167-11953.4235.1100444.26502161.559716252.74.48.4712.87TT21.42-22.5874427.58017165643 69.0797312069390.9759970029240317 51151217.5WETL
2024-03-16 00:00:01FORECAST2024167-11849.26233.36841.315164.94564401.77.929.62TT17.262-15.73875429.679140440970.873702533390.93296337630381651151217.5WETL
2024-03-15 12:00:01FORECAST2024167-11848.25433.11640.685165.944758401.77.929.62TT16.254-16.74675430.1055017959371.3737535820370.91655571212521651151217.5WETL
2024-03-15 08:00:01FORECAST2024167-11848.54233.18840.865165.909826401.77.929.62TT16.542-16.45875430.09061318671.3562589699590.921523725865091651151217.5WETL
2024-03-15 04:00:04FORECAST2024167-11848.16433.51240.838165.7607009833301.77.929.62TT16.164-16.83675430.027038548871.2815833516350.914955880913511651151217.5WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.39833.02640.712169.667073600.138.478.6TT16.398-29.60274431.0516484912573.1352717699670.91906839408035175112127WETL
2024-03-14 20:00:01FORECAST2024167-11948.68633.24240.964169.921437600.138.478.6TT16.686-29.31474431.1594118191673.2632270910830.92392235661315175112127WETL
2024-03-14 16:00:02FORECAST2024167-11948.12833.13440.631169.9225200.138.478.6TT16.128-29.87274431.1598702377773.2637716736740.91430957252034175112127WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024167-11947.55232.34239.947169.682030400.138.478.6TT15.552-30.44874431.0579869851173.142794451770.90346491661631175112127WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024167-11947.91233.0840.496169.651526400.138.478.6TT15.912-30.08874431.0450595384473.1274522978750.91035458047209175112127WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024167-11948.5631.89240.226169.1979994166700.138.478.6TT16.56-28.4474430.8527388137472.8994214504770.92182664206161175112127WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024167-11946.43632.28839.362167.8173304008.478.47TT14.436-31.56474430.2658924859872.206073439170.87965862100091175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 20:00:01FORECAST2024167-11947.0332.2739.65167.7765928008.478.47TT15.03-30.9774430.2485459000472.1856350882640.8927978782167175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2024167-11946.16632.25239.209167.862988008.478.47TT14.166-31.83474430.2853319371772.2289815115440.87332674304091175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024167-11946.54432.75639.65167.7544528008.478.47TT14.544-31.45674430.2391176548372.1745277553410.88212806731753175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024167-11947.22831.69439.461167.7514024008.478.47TT15.228-29.77274430.237818610672.1729974374450.89693958195932175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024167-11948.5633.83641.198167.69381346667008.478.47TT16.56-26.4474430.213291881972.1441075197230.92182664206161175111123.5WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.7434.12441.432168.80523012465008.448.44TT16.74-30.2674430.6860036295772.7020499541550.92480736008726175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024167-11946.5833.0839.83161.7049576008.488.48TT14.58-32.4274427.6429932716369.1519920949260.88294321745437175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.0233.6240.82161.5453528008.488.48TT16.02-29.9874427.5739577370269.0725858507190.91234866307538175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.05633.96241.009165.01205573056008.488.48TT16.056-28.94474429.06716718370.8012553033550.91300597304314175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024167-11950.05433.27841.666164.85198293021008.478.47TT18.054-26.94674428.9985083434970.7212547745260.94401386813716175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024167-11949.35232.93641.144165.90640305669008.598.59TT17.352-29.64874429.4502596828971.248547875750.93429792851776175111123.5WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024167-11948.00233.31440.658171.72809102249008.818.81TT16.002-31.99874431.9228147237874.1732804415770.91201862643877175111123.5WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024167-11946.00432.6339.317166.10035982313008.968.96TT14.004-34.99674429.5332260405571.3456234013240.86941844866946175111123.5WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024167-11944.74431.85638.3166.2783500276100.018.988.99TT12.744-34.25674429.6093266336771.4347299891190.83619024948981174111123WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:03FORECAST2024167-11946.23832.34239.29169.25563392702008.968.96TT14.238-32.76274430.8771913491272.928392166490.87503742762855175111123.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.63234.48441.558168.81991825525008.948.94TT16.632-30.36874430.6922419081972.7094290721110.92302947287426175111123.5WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:06FORECAST2024167-11948.90234.5241.711158.46498824185008.938.93TT16.902-29.09874426.2360782814467.5434951331220.92741544622797175111123.5WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024167-11946.16633.83640.001168.8616249965200.038.848.87TT14.166-33.83474430.7099541443872.7303827589960.87332674304091175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.48835.63642.062158.45790538078008.758.75TT16.488-29.51274426.2329899395167.5399867900020.92060965631179175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024167-11949.47833.36841.423159.0530551917600.018.838.84TT17.478-28.52274426.4922995684967.8349032621270.93613170060344175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:03FORECAST2024167-11952.10636.96844.537163.7333032287300.078.898.96TT20.106-27.89474428.5179013148170.1626514749190.96605860362463175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024167-11949.98235.99642.989163.8434775614200.058.898.94TT17.982-30.01874428.5652950447270.2176283022620.94307257740205175111123.5WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024167-11949.96435.61842.791163.6832092540100.058.98.95TT17.964-28.03674428.4963479863170.137657392020.94283532484885175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:02FORECAST2024167-11949.08235.67242.377165.4573846739200.018.878.88TT17.082-38.91874429.2580320291371.0239113298140.93023170443601175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024167-11952.44836.75244.6166.52016815211009.39.3TT20.448-30.55274429.7126620620971.5558247436680.96892417440363175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024167-11951.09834.91643.007167.17678262202009.279.27TT19.098-37.90274429.992931249571.8848347965010.95633219869331175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024167-11951.20635.70843.457167.48019011252008.928.92TT19.206-35.79474430.1222798279472.0369611972140.95747116098372175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:05FORECAST2024167-11951.40435.70843.556167.12294873663008.988.98TT19.404-33.59674429.9699703913971.8578493200110.95949698871737175111123.5WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:04FORECAST2024167-11950.6335.20442.917168.7936737051400.19.269.36TT18.63-35.3774430.68109527472.696244266650.9511103280798175112127WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024167-11948.41634.6141.513169.85454362117008.788.78TT16.416-31.58474431.1310784010673.2295725627160.91937843373259175111123.5WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024167-11949.80234.12441.963170.16951379472008.728.72TT17.802-30.19874431.264444225973.3880607908730.94066499946911175111123.5WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024167-11951.20635.85243.529169.38628404909008.758.75TT19.206-23.79474430.9326088912872.9940732956710.95747116098372175111123.5WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:04FORECAST2024167-11944.67233.18838.93173.32675401132009.159.15TT12.672-43.32874432.5954158372674.9803592272480.83413912170706174111123WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024167-11944.8733.839.335171.76970741386008.938.93TT12.87-42.1374431.9403585201374.1942690032410.8397400340329174111123WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024167-11944.81634.05239.434173.5962457340100.039.259.28TT12.816-43.18474432.7085295907375.1165762340370.83822488437615174111123WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024167-11945.64437.1341.387177.8945857752100.119.159.26TT13.644-35.35674434.5022448198277.2955968606210.86043806208306175112127WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:04FORECAST2024167-11943.6135.83439.722175.5579784323008.698.69TT11.61-34.3974433.5295985131876.1095799055430.80197912690166174111123WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:04FORECAST2024167-11944.22237.34640.784174.85807056732008.68.6TT12.222-36.77874433.2371265094275.7550080395670.82094654410056174111123WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024167-11944.99637.2241.108173.2828997769400.068.378.43TT12.996-31.00474432.5770015745274.9581972096480.84323928846121174111123WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024167-11943.8836.89640.388173.1877979830600.078.338.4TT11.88-39.1274432.5370615659474.9101412386680.81049191172869174111123WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:05FORECAST2024167-11943.5236.4139.965175.0600631198100.088.78.78TT11.52-38.4874433.3215869531575.8573043631950.79909109901996174111123WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024167-11944.54636.33840.442178.1442142128200.078.578.64TT12.546-39.45474434.6058153464777.4225114672180.83050998502139174111123WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024167-11944.7834.71839.749180.2197956061900.138.848.97TT12.78-42.2274435.4644331942778.4793111440370.83720962890583174112126WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024167-11946.92235.43841.18180.4508197876900.128.868.98TT14.922-42.07874435.5597226549678.5971090195890.89048897881525175112127WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024167-11944.61834.98839.803181.19513015062009.019.01TT12.618-47.38274435.8663448604978.9768590852690.83258995665403174111123WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024167-11946.70636.08641.396185.4762109000800.319.7410.05TT14.706-39.29474437.6187449130981.1678666253270.88576485930148175112127WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024167-11945.2335.13240.181185.0983473182100.249.719.95TT13.23-35.7774437.4648373658680.974018406250.84960385722323175112127WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:05FORECAST2024167-11936.15822.38829.273189.8830572738600.119.49.51TT4.158-45.84274439.402831859383.4351530882340.49738797017052172112124WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024167-11932.30626.90629.606191.6559435308300.189.549.72TT0.306-62.69474440.1149607769384.3506480697390.32685917755498172112124WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:04FORECAST2024167-11934.2526.90630.578193.7686740432600.239.79.93TT2.25-67.7574440.9594203812285.4441221941520.41079213796687172112124WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024167-11928.05825.66426.861193.3251106432300.439.519.94TT-3.942-66.94274440.782503471585.2143262532270.17458139397539171112123WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2024167-11926.61824.18825.403193.5916627746500.758.929.67TT-5.382-73.38274440.8888426784685.3524041529130.13531757505916171113124.5WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024167-11926.70824.90825.808198.3493100339500.889.5110.39TT-5.292-73.29274442.7748136944387.8240787967030.13757878672883171113124.5WETL