MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 14, 2024

[ Wednesday, March 13, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, March 15, 2024 ]

DAY 166 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/15/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.779
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 167 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 429.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 71.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -120

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-15 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024166-12043.3700621.2300632.30006166.828734583331.56999999999992.57999999999999.4512.03TT11.37006-45.6299473429.20460264349 71.6036607363560.778714147221117 41151215WETL
2024-03-15 00:00:02FORECAST2024166-11941.01821.50631.262170.680790401.017.598.6TT9.018-45.98274431.480703801273.6454675671360.692252264783351631141210WETL
2024-03-14 12:00:02FORECAST2024166-11940.74821.48831.118170.671639201.017.598.6TT8.748-46.25274431.4768354981373.6408587912940.681449936213231631141210WETL
2024-03-14 08:00:02FORECAST2024166-11941.34221.25431.298170.66248801.017.598.6TT9.342-45.65874431.4729671051573.6362500709070.704997948050421641141212WETL
2024-03-14 04:00:04FORECAST2024166-11941.61221.75831.685170.1388018166701.017.598.6TT9.612-45.38874431.2514447417473.3726040900660.715430003321071641141212WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:02FORECAST2024166-12041.25221.70431.478168.681282400.889.4510.33TT9.252-47.74873429.9965293647472.5323660007930.70148189633732174113129WETL
2024-03-13 20:00:01FORECAST2024166-12040.83822.04631.442168.666227200.889.4510.33TT8.838-48.16273429.9901085783372.5248093472260.68506847049842173113127.5WETL
2024-03-13 16:00:01FORECAST2024166-12040.8222.51431.667168.697616800.889.4510.33TT8.82-48.1873430.0034954304572.5405648947870.68434616759573173113127.5WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024166-12041.12623.14432.135168.669671200.889.4510.33TT9.126-47.87473429.9915774073472.5265379800650.69652769263076173113127.5WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024166-12042.15221.84832168.64526800.889.4510.33TT10.152-46.84873429.9811694276272.5142895530740.73574994790039174113129WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024166-12042.58422.96432.774168.7962870666700.889.4510.33TT10.584-45.41673430.0455687958872.5900952822170.75145719536875174113129WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.4523.16232.306169.8785773246500.859.4510.3TT9.45-48.5573430.506369858473.1338096407450.70919186770908174113129WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:03FORECAST2024166-12042.18822.3732.279162.613583200.899.4510.34TT10.188-48.81273427.3887647093969.4992184488150.73707790348056174113129WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:03FORECAST2024166-12043.26823.95433.611162.5768800.899.4510.34TT11.268-47.73273427.3728678661569.4809474543310.77527456712215174113129WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024166-12042.821.84832.324166.0993757305600.899.4510.34TT10.8-47.273428.891792698671.2386590231980.7591204037483174113129WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024166-12043.62823.07233.35165.9813197302100.889.4510.33TT11.628-47.37273428.8411059196871.179612715110.78727186051222174113129WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024166-12043.23223.75633.494166.97138625669019.4510.45TT11.232-48.76873429.2657158601271.6750916496330.774054128753761741141212WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024166-12041.61222.6432.126172.8059646224901.069.6110.67TT9.612-50.38873431.7464199155174.6083565658090.715430003321071741141212WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024166-12040.3722.71231.541167.0471646231301.079.7510.82TT8.37-50.6373429.2981709662571.7130422378080.666065795053181731141210WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:03FORECAST2024166-12040.38823.16231.775167.0815892276101.19.7510.85TT8.388-48.61273429.31291261271.7302837151470.666804997647931731141210WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024166-12040.94623.32432.135170.1419227270201.079.7510.82TT8.946-49.05473430.6183015697573.2662257905210.689387370488151731141210WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:03FORECAST2024166-12042.4425.7934.115170.0318126552501.069.7410.8TT10.44-48.5673430.5715097511573.2108542806960.746277236193971741141212WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024166-12042.18826.0634.124159.6853450418501.059.7410.79TT10.188-47.81273426.1158210109468.0444519059250.737077903480561741141212WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024166-12040.74823.7232.234169.8360801965201.039.710.73TT8.748-50.25273430.4882999618573.1124454359830.681449936213231731141210WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024166-12043.28624.5333.908159.6994181807800.959.6610.61TT11.286-47.71473426.1219614594468.0514293191240.77588338410752174113129WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024166-12042.56624.56633.566160.2663271917601.029.6810.7TT10.566-48.43473426.3691350536268.332615302970.750812791877281741141212WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024166-12042.38624.49433.44165.2773960287301.19.7210.82TT10.386-49.61473428.5385639441470.8277379465810.744320258870991741141212WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.73824.11632.927165.2392815614201.059.7510.8TT9.738-50.26273428.5221671433370.8086950319040.720237324978021741141212WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024166-12042.69224.78233.737165.0220396540101.049.7710.81TT10.692-48.30873428.428679605570.7001745547730.755304927180811741141212WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:02FORECAST2024166-12042.49424.56633.53166.7574454739200.919.8310.74TT10.494-57.50673429.1740534703671.5679688204040.74822633071168174113129WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:03FORECAST2024166-12044.65426.18635.42168.1012593521100.9910.1711.16TT12.654-53.34673429.7489818364772.2413450519970.81934911884053174113129WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024166-12043.48424.45833.971168.5574330220200.9610.1711.13TT11.484-58.51673429.9437024154872.4702068231350.78251835135468174113129WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024166-12042.5323.4532.99168.9132877125200.929.8610.78TT10.53-57.4773430.0954446396472.6488355842610.74952132783503174113129WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:05FORECAST2024166-12042.6224.11633.368168.5478791366300.899.9510.84TT10.62-55.3873429.9396265925772.4654122189740.75274333812512174113129WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:04FORECAST2024166-12042.11625.55633.836170.1555297051400.9910.2311.22TT10.116-55.88473430.624083013873.2730689490010.73441858974637174113129WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.12623.8132.468171.0381972211700.829.8210.64TT9.126-49.87473430.9986914315173.717239187130.69652769263076173113127.5WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024166-12043.4323.9933.71171.3548401947200.759.8310.58TT11.43-49.5773431.1328717071373.8767043340680.78072012793232174113129WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024166-12044.47424.40434.439170.8144616490900.859.7610.61TT12.474-44.52673430.903816406173.6046034219450.81395166299173174113129WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.73823.07232.405174.2703116113200.9510.0611.01TT9.738-58.26273432.3632705310275.3480818847280.72023732497802174113129WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024166-12042.13423.16232.648172.7727970138600.949.8510.79TT10.134-56.86673431.732421596974.5916180408640.73508469331888174113129WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024166-12042.20623.7232.963174.6077977340101.0310.1111.14TT10.206-57.79473432.5051102552275.5187648103710.737740601197181741141212WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024166-12043.2525.59234.421179.1547945752101.39.8211.12TT11.25-50.7573434.4043288578377.8256182991070.774664814978041741141212WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024166-12045.26628.27436.77176.517772032300.999.5610.55TT13.266-47.73473433.3055530481176.4861308332780.83695789370672174113129WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024166-12043.44826.92435.186175.9830777673200.979.4910.46TT11.448-50.55273433.0818616068476.2150789307720.78132048149556174113129WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024166-12041.82825.5233.674174.4417565769400.939.3610.29TT9.828-46.17273432.4353411523675.4347805165680.72364685536195174113129WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024166-12040.8224.18832.504174.2278859830600.939.3310.26TT8.82-53.1873432.3454311504875.3266304837820.68434616759573173113127.5WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:05FORECAST2024166-12040.71224.56632.639176.0372735198100.949.710.64TT8.712-52.28873433.1045484506176.2425438582750.67999764100891173113127.5WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.55824.76433.161179.1967006128200.79.810.5TT9.558-54.44273434.4217306292777.8469408032750.71335772854445174113129WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024166-12040.20823.97232.09181.1991708061900.6910.1410.83TT8.208-56.79273435.2511149219178.867141116320.65938427001907173113127.5WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024166-12041.23425.66433.449181.6425421876900.6610.1810.84TT9.234-58.76673435.4341810280279.0933715973470.70077640687481174113129WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024166-12041.48624.38632.936182.2086501506200.7210.1510.87TT9.486-61.51473435.6676250638679.3824098772110.71058362690667174113129WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024166-12042.85424.5333.692186.5820301000801.5410.3711.91TT10.854-56.14673437.4597922850881.6221361317090.761015955056081741151215WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024166-12042.7126.67234.691186.1749417182101.4710.3411.81TT10.71-51.2973437.2938105918281.4131497006650.755943087884971741141212WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024166-12042.827.55435.177189.9891324738601.1810.1911.37TT10.8-52.273438.8422576815383.3752598297830.75912040374831741141212WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024166-12037.18426.11431.649191.6576163308301.3410.2411.58TT5.184-64.81673439.5149099412784.2363799812060.527640219912351731141210WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:04FORECAST2024166-12037.426.45631.928193.818661243260.0464567181.43645671810.3511.786456718TT5.4-71.673440.3819125766385.3542327313470.537337378809851731141210WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024166-12036.15825.66430.911193.3251106432301.510.311.8TT4.158-64.84273440.1843211581185.0986825913060.48145305890587172114128WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:06FORECAST2024166-12036.78825.10630.947193.591662774650.051181131.671181139.8611.53118113TT4.788-70.21273440.291065222885.2366794213020.509823623907941731151212.5WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024166-12037.74224.40431.073198.349310033950.1303150312.06031503110.1912.250315031TT5.742-70.25873442.1842165626187.7069342630970.552643671184611731151212.5WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024166-12027.42825.39426.411192.973422612770.1940945931.7740945939.7211.494094593TT-4.572-78.57273440.0433727539384.9166757383940.15094135254283171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:04FORECAST2024166-12029.06625.1627.113194.170832010160.1263780212.0963780219.5911.686378021TT-2.934-79.93473440.5227516707485.5366692113130.19840181159585171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:05FORECAST2024166-12026.85225.10625.979191.925918594670.1055118681.8955118689.4411.335511868TT-5.148-76.14873439.6228106692784.3750117728710.13621105846839171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:04FORECAST2024166-12024.67424.22424.449191.205846659480.4196852661.9596852668.6810.639685266TT-7.326-89.32673439.333059531684.0030496132410.089508775968958171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2024166-12027.48226.92427.203195.110141733870.681102732.471102738.5210.99110273TT-4.518-87.51873440.8977820985986.0236287554030.15237458659507171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024166-12032.32432.25232.288190.3045023260.2507875372.0607875378.4910.550787537TT0.324-76.67673438.9696181866883.5378947252510.315823075679261721151210WETL