MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 13, 2024

[ Tuesday, March 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 14, 2024 ]

DAY 165 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/14/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.211
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -58

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 171 in
SWE DAY: 72
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.15 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-14 04:00:03OBSERVATION2024165-12128.8399220.1099224.47492170.532795416670.131.598.9110.5TT-3.16008-58.1600872430.14805143773 73.3543496547070.2110137097424617 1115127.5WETL
2024-03-14 00:00:01FORECAST2024165-12028.65216.62822.6416901.468.8710.33TT-3.348-57.34873430.1323993906572.6923754970210.20458181542306161114126WETL
2024-03-13 12:00:02FORECAST2024165-12029.10217.36623.23416901.468.8710.33TT-2.898-56.89873430.1323993906572.6923754970210.22017861535634161114126WETL
2024-03-13 08:00:02FORECAST2024165-12028.90416.71822.81116901.468.8710.33TT-3.096-57.09673430.1323993906572.6923754970210.21323372255544161114126WETL
2024-03-13 04:00:05FORECAST2024165-12029.82217.00623.414169.1991366666701.468.8710.33TT-2.178-56.17873430.217235982572.7923849073580.2464964540682161114126WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:03FORECAST2024165-12129.98417.92423.954170.2270117246501.438.9110.34TT-2.016-59.01672430.0177094687573.2006296715430.25264166086041172114128WETL
2024-03-12 20:00:02FORECAST2024165-12129.98417.36623.67516301.478.9110.38TT-2.016-60.01672426.907500663269.5859226081010.25264166086041172114128WETL
2024-03-12 16:00:01FORECAST2024165-12129.98417.43823.71116301.478.9110.38TT-2.016-60.01672426.907500663269.5859226081010.25264166086041172114128WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:03FORECAST2024165-12130.95615.72823.342166.5083261305601.478.9110.38TT-1.044-59.04472428.4244711821871.3362415699160.29113637362181172114128WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.12817.0623.594166.4622005302101.468.9110.37TT-1.872-59.87272428.404614431371.313174835530.25817096356879172114128WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024165-12130.39817.0623.729167.4502006566901.588.9110.49TT-1.602-60.60272428.8294332770471.8075746497340.268704748374691721151210WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.00217.16823.585173.1775230224901.88.9110.71TT-1.998-60.99872431.2711667415974.686472407330.253329401043011721151210WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.72217.34824.035167.3866446231301.958.9110.86TT-1.278-60.27872428.8021376191871.77575102330.281623695473661721151210WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:02FORECAST2024165-12131.78417.74424.764167.373640427610.0145669371.9845669378.9110.894566937TT-0.216-58.21672428.7965521135171.7692399300450.325941753972811721151210WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024165-12131.69417.67224.683170.5002955270201.958.9110.86TT-0.306-59.30672430.1342029898173.3380087260420.322076801781761721151210WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024165-12131.4617.58224.521170.5031486552501.938.9110.84TT-0.54-59.5472430.1354187750273.3394432492870.312118329536761721151210WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024165-12131.4619.20225.331160.1533354418501.928.9110.83TT-0.54-58.5472425.6666540306368.1719344293790.312118329536761721151210WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.43419.88625.16170.169065796520.0338582861.8638582868.9110.773858286TT-1.566-59.56672429.992998288673.1715068178140.270125373676221721151210WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:03FORECAST2024165-12130.59618.66224.629160.1940749807801.748.9110.65TT-1.404-60.40472425.6844755445868.1921307935420.276564260254531721151210WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:02FORECAST2024165-12131.42418.08624.755160.700763191760.0122047311.8322047318.9110.742204731TT-0.576-59.57672425.9059723051868.443414797370.310598121219961721151210WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024165-12129.96619.4924.728165.767821628730.0704724791.9504724798.9110.860472479TT-2.034-61.03472428.1054078403170.9661008851680.251954903934741721151210WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.41619.2224.818165.680703961420.0547244391.8847244398.9610.844724439TT-1.584-60.58472428.0678317267370.9225797037210.269414592200851721151210WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:04FORECAST2024165-12130.63218.98624.809165.505675654010.0523622331.8623622338.9910.852362233TT-1.368-60.36872427.992312331270.8351568270960.278005262218091721151210WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.12818.42824.278167.249347073920.0137795351.8037795358.9810.783779535TT-1.872-68.87272428.7431568613471.7070130474710.258170963568791721151210WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.61419.3124.962168.7279689521101.989.2211.2TT-1.386-67.38672429.3772676343472.4479542821480.277284303961911721151210WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.2918.42824.359169.1064066220201.999.1811.17TT-1.71-70.7172429.5391791940372.6378270968730.264465489051981721151210WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:04FORECAST2024165-12129.89415.24222.568169.4054845125201.928.910.82TT-2.106-69.10672429.6670272452972.7879509295420.249217743748711721151210WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:05FORECAST2024165-12130.68617.00623.846169.0350575366301.88910.88TT-1.314-67.31472429.5086649570572.6020218934960.280173602547531721151210WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:04FORECAST2024165-12131.06420.0325.547170.623126505140.1000000542.0100000549.2511.260000054TT-0.936-66.93672430.1865361914873.3997717854040.295576822957871721151210WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024165-12129.87619.88624.881171.4423260211701.968.7210.68TT-2.124-60.12472430.5351459803673.8119468607390.24853592921654171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:04FORECAST2024165-12131.33418.1424.737171.7990177947201.928.710.62TT-0.666-61.66672430.6867093851873.9915536496160.306811754612281721151210WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024165-12131.74818.91425.331171.3773096490901.998.6610.65TT-0.252-58.25272430.5075048007973.77921795650.324393499643191721151210WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024165-12129.08417.72623.405174.6914636113202.28.8511.05TT-2.916-68.91672431.9106923657175.4511109987420.21954196049104171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024165-12128.5817.38422.982173.2287826138602.098.7410.83TT-3.42-68.4272431.2928602971174.7123371393180.20214866808293171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024165-12128.77818.57223.675175.091728934010.0267716682.2067716688.9711.176771668TT-3.222-69.22272432.0793636093675.6535228110720.2088814307461171115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024165-12131.80220.89426.348179.775895375210.1055118682.4355118688.7211.155511868TT-0.198-63.19872434.0405713712178.0300323474270.326717009363891721151210WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024165-12132.88219.41826.15177.183054432301.848.7510.59TT0.882-62.11872432.9578619761576.7127964254150.374493925106571721151210WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024165-12131.89218.80625.349176.5830225673201.88.710.5TT-0.108-63.10872432.7062851448476.4085837147530.330604454172871721151210WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024165-12131.33419.25625.295175.041799776940.0562992431.4462992438.8810.326299243TT-0.666-56.66672432.0583328929575.6282681982080.30681175461228172114128WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024165-12130.23619.2224.728174.758557183060.0653543661.4453543668.8510.295354366TT-1.764-62.76472431.9389774669275.4850324932450.26235867969125172114128WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:05FORECAST2024165-12130.63219.38225.007176.553578319810.0783464991.4583464999.2210.678346499TT-1.368-62.36872432.6939301110976.3936616783760.27800526221809172114128WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024165-12130.4721.34425.907179.767519012820.0657480671.2157480679.3210.535748067TT-1.53-64.5372434.037085067478.0257699421210.27154974138927172114128WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024165-12131.3721.12826.249181.649449206190.133858341.503858349.3710.87385834TT-0.63-65.6372434.8184975242678.9845405799450.308323861663231721151210WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024165-12131.22621.05626.141182.168293387690.1173228981.5473228989.3310.877322898TT-0.774-68.77472435.0332752464679.2492693185060.302295178853021721151210WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024165-12130.54218.60824.575182.7496533506201.549.3710.91TT-1.458-72.45872435.2735956181279.5460987118870.27440963793291721151210WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024165-12131.92820.69626.312187.196833300080.3102363882.4202363889.5311.950236388TT-0.071999999999999-68.07272437.1002607070781.8237846390010.332164589919541721151210WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024165-12132.5421.93827.239186.817493718210.2433072182.3533072189.511.853307218TT0.54-63.4672436.945251868981.629016846220.359112889514721721151210WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024165-12133.45822.24427.851190.652250073860.1145669912.1545669919.2611.414566991TT1.458-63.54272438.5053859601883.6020385028130.400843931831831721151210WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024165-12130.99223.84627.419191.842411530830.1783465531.9483465539.6711.618346553TT-1.008-71.00872438.9865099007584.2162306888650.292613063022361721151210WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:04FORECAST2024165-12130.54222.78426.663193.713590455450.1783465531.9983465539.7811.778346553TT-1.458-78.45872439.7400010448185.1836144692760.27440963793291721151210WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024165-12129.98421.9225.952193.421837843230.4271655852.2571655859.5811.837165585TT-2.016-70.01672439.6227528808885.0326408199210.252641660860411721151210WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2024165-12130.7425.1627.95193.349213516850.7035436872.2435436879.2811.523543687TT-1.26-76.2672439.5935534505584.9950678267430.282350095111841721151210WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024165-12130.18224.94427.563197.551360606990.7539374153.0239374159.1412.163937415TT-1.818-76.81872441.2742446184987.1743274252050.260260487373481721151210WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024165-12130.41624.29627.356190.854560742020.4437010272.5237010278.8211.343701027TT-1.584-74.58472438.587272885283.7063813135460.269414592200851721151210WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024165-12132.75624.87228.814193.035191385950.5893703972.4693703979.1311.599370397TT0.756-78.24472439.4672352922384.8326418724920.368802467602391721151210WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:05FORECAST2024165-12132.12623.95428.04190.890622122420.5220475262.3320475268.9411.272047526TT0.126-71.87472438.6018646105383.7249827995590.340796763174491721151210WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024165-12130.43423.86427.149186.596224840260.0657480672.1157480678.1410.255748067TT-1.566-82.56672436.8547661814181.5154501729260.270125373676221721151210WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2024165-12128.0423.9926.015188.470754958090.7874022.4074027.9410.347402TT-3.96-83.9672437.6197293426882.478520773770.18445686632664171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024165-12133.04424.58428.814188.191735389920.791339012.421339017.9210.34133901TT1.044-77.95672437.5060968981982.3350316189390.381851710628571721151210WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024165-12125.50222.69424.098187.029799969350.4157482561.8957482568.099.985748256TT-6.498-86.49872437.0320245862881.7380121385730.1146850667687171115127.5WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:05FORECAST2024165-12128.8523.5426.195185.492447472430.3350395511.9250395518.1210.045039551TT-3.15-79.1572436.402627136280.9493913908910.21136202625041171115127.5WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:05FORECAST2024165-12126.47423.5425.007186.589540390030.3129922951.9629922958.1510.112992295TT-5.526-84.52672436.8520318511181.5120198415520.13879993277744171115127.5WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024165-12127.06824.13425.601180.8453476458801.477.699.16TT-4.932-70.93272434.4850765575678.5746047169990.15512377651004171114126WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:07FORECAST2024165-12124.27821.75823.018179.1415064589501.147.818.95TT-7.722-78.72272433.7763239935977.7073441464370.088756334630464171114126WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024165-12124.2623.34223.801186.0049452988902.067.59.56TT-7.74-77.7472436.6127186773281.2121248543750.088410543717058171115127.5WETL