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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 12, 2024

[ Monday, March 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 13, 2024 ]

DAY 164 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/13/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.14°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.195
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.88 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.69 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 71
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 72.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-13 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024164-12228.9900421.1400625.06505169.199136666670.882.697.6810.37TT-3.00996-46.0099671428.93799200628 72.5759379309960.1945769521253317 1115127.5WETL
2024-03-13 00:00:02FORECAST2024164-12126.61820.91223.765170.227011724650.8480319542.6580319547.6810.338031954TT-5.382-57.38272430.0177094687573.2006296715430.12387066194934161115127.5WETL
2024-03-12 12:00:02FORECAST2024164-12126.47419.99423.234166.508326130560.8885831572.6985831577.6810.378583157TT-5.526-57.52672428.4244711821871.3362415699160.12024724581421161115127.5WETL
2024-03-12 08:00:01FORECAST2024164-12125.718.75222.226166.462200530210.8838587452.6938587457.6810.373858745TT-6.3-58.372428.404614431371.313174835530.1020461632386161115127.5WETL
2024-03-12 04:00:05FORECAST2024164-12125.2519.97622.613167.450200656691.0019690452.8119690457.6810.491969045TT-6.75-58.7572428.8294332770471.8075746497340.092429541465225161115127.5WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.1520.10223.126173.177523022491.0645675043.0345675047.6810.714567504TT-5.85-49.8571430.6367725897174.5766095994870.11236846197763171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 20:00:02FORECAST2024164-12225.91620.24623.081167.386644623131.0728352253.1828352257.6810.862835225TT-6.084-50.08471428.1583433076471.6679884536640.10691166496002171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 16:00:01FORECAST2024164-12226.81621.14623.981167.302539352711.0854336573.1954336577.6810.875433657TT-5.184-49.18471428.1220779675871.6259107969360.12897622220835171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.47420.62423.549170.500295527021.0685045143.1785045147.6810.858504514TT-5.526-49.52671429.4954801563873.2291062941830.12024724581421171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.88821.25424.071170.503148655251.0566934843.1566934847.6810.836693484TT-5.112-50.11271429.4967005703773.230539784290.130868368176171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024164-12227.0520.28223.666160.153335441851.0535438763.1535438767.6810.833543876TT-4.95-48.9571425.0109222145668.066916791880.1351953696771171115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.49221.09223.792169.996344835210.9956698293.0556698297.6810.735669829TT-5.508-48.50871429.2797784943572.975993255710.12069605710407171115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.34820.2123.279160.194074980780.9476383072.9676383077.6810.647638307TT-5.652-49.65271425.028811579168.0870973110930.11713837685611171115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:01FORECAST2024164-12226.74421.09223.918160.635769550541.0082682613.0482682617.6810.728268261TT-5.256-50.25671425.2226477395668.305967249960.1271030766221171115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.97821.5624.269165.399208784261.0303155173.1103155177.6810.790315517TT-5.022-50.02271427.299306229270.6749671643720.1332603306104171115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.97821.5624.269165.396645398780.9992131383.1092131387.6810.789213138TT-5.022-50.02271427.2981954446270.673688111490.1332603306104171115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024164-12226.70821.07423.891165.226066727040.9937013243.1237013247.6810.803701324TT-5.292-50.29271427.2242628151770.5885845553110.12617361576119171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:01FORECAST2024164-12226.88820.69623.792167.170569236460.9023626923.1223626927.6510.772362692TT-5.112-58.11271428.0651581734971.5598961621560.130868368176171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024164-12227.71620.89424.305168.727968952110.988189513.548189517.6511.19818951TT-4.284-57.28471428.7356629745672.3396976310330.1540043473968171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024164-12226.25820.76823.513169.106406622020.9622052443.5222052447.6511.172205244TT-5.742-59.74271428.8981909686672.5294318813940.11495279624598171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12227.3219.29223.306169.405484512520.9232288453.1732288457.6510.823228845TT-4.68-57.6871429.0265257667472.6794464662390.14262230589776171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024164-12227.5920.55224.071169.035057536630.8921264663.0821264667.810.882126466TT-4.41-57.4171428.8675605569872.4936527743450.15031953506749171115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:04FORECAST2024164-12227.69821.50624.602170.171617431420.893701273.293701277.8711.16370127TT-4.302-57.30271429.3548302270373.0640059117260.15347432727296171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024164-12229.22820.17424.701171.442326021170.818898083.038898087.6410.67889808TT-2.772-48.77271429.8979496287873.7027044360910.20281736247753171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024164-12226.65421.12823.891171.799017794720.7511815082.9711815087.6510.621181508TT-5.346-52.34671430.0500900702173.8821830765950.12478829878934171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024164-12228.77822.29825.538171.377309649090.8496067582.9796067587.6710.649606758TT-3.222-49.22271429.870203212973.6699989249330.187408166419171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12226.67221.6524.161174.691463611320.9535438223.3835438227.6711.053543822TT-5.328-57.32871431.2787330344275.3407130982180.1252488888214171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024164-12227.48222.31624.899173.228782613860.9421264933.2021264937.6310.832126493TT-4.518-55.51871430.6585487375774.602456120060.1472081385169171115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024164-12227.26622.02824.647174.931291407520.9972446333.4672446337.6811.147244633TT-4.734-56.73471431.3802015704675.4618957483560.1411153336823171115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024164-12229.31824.3526.834179.125722838411.1854337113.3454337117.711.045433711TT-2.682-53.68271433.144862583177.5873866039390.20598745077702171115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024164-12229.10224.0826.591177.19043443230.9877958092.8077958097.7810.587795809TT-2.898-53.89871432.3329930752976.6052708624290.19842843659656171115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024164-12229.15623.84626.501176.583022567320.9673233572.7373233577.7610.497323357TT-2.844-53.84471432.0773548175876.2975252965810.20030235948109171115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024164-12230.75825.1627.959174.739649599620.8724414162.4024414167.8710.272441416TT-1.242-47.24271431.2991249649675.3650579690020.260561036595811721151210WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024164-12230.48825.75428.121174.402612021680.8590555822.3690555827.8610.229055582TT-1.512-51.51271431.1564409808275.1948094970280.249793374851671721151210WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:05FORECAST2024164-12230.39825.95228.175176.120165127220.8598429842.4398429848.1610.599842984TT-1.602-51.60271431.8822894725476.0631801374260.24625730233974171115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2024164-12231.76626.00628.886179.336249780730.6295278992.1395278998.3310.469527899TT-0.234-54.23471433.2329399359277.6943707295860.302762964175451721151210WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024164-12231.65824.90828.283180.736550658510.5602365232.4702365238.2710.740236523TT-0.342-56.34271433.8175815124878.4066932975810.298098105027741721151210WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024164-12230.86624.74627.806181.369227371880.5370081642.5270081648.2310.757008164TT-1.134-59.13471434.0810500171378.7289446583820.264933960771831721151210WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12227.96819.09423.531182.749653350620.7200791292.7900791298.1210.910079129TT-4.032-62.03271434.6544396301479.4329481697150.16155133014893171115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024164-12229.4823.48626.483185.007373439061.2338589343.3038589348.3411.643858934TT-2.52-58.5271435.5879099919380.5869751294170.21176696063564171115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024164-12230.27222.71226.492185.082226771021.2307093263.3007093268.3111.610709326TT-1.728-54.72871435.6187670443780.6252914278180.24135216945184171115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024164-12231.9126.63629.273189.886257033791.066929713.146929718.1511.29692971TT-0.09-56.0971437.5869286801483.0917440139840.309033045380961721151210WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024164-12232.68425.62829.156190.56960984711.1606305483.0006305488.4411.440630548TT0.684-61.31671437.8649453176483.4437517949060.343656342671921721151210WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:04FORECAST2024164-12230.25424.96227.608192.376416496011.2051187613.1051187618.4911.595118761TT-1.746-67.74671438.5977096960184.3758556746780.24065578856639171115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024164-12230.66823.95427.311190.271451744131.0724415243.2624415248.1511.412441524TT-1.332-59.33271437.743701412483.2901295595890.256945490796661721151210WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2024164-12230.70422.31626.51188.517936919170.9204729382.820472938810.820472938TT-1.296-66.29671437.0287859358782.3877650989220.258388574665591721151210WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024164-12230.7424.24227.491192.269513267021.1814967013.2714967018.1411.411496701TT-1.26-66.2671438.5544478025184.3206502200740.259835840595631721151210WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024164-12230.43425.32227.878187.259448168611.1413391992.9513391997.9510.901339199TT-1.566-63.56671436.513728450581.7413199076640.24766850742259171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024164-12229.37225.17827.275188.480416634111.3787409022.8987409028.1111.008740902TT-2.628-69.62871437.0134539334382.3684778720840.20790350082835171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:05FORECAST2024164-12230.16425.1627.662186.61561470281.2669298182.9369298187.8110.746929818TT-1.836-62.83671436.2495915913181.4109856986570.23719031995382171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12229.22825.4327.329186.045104764951.4700795342.8600795347.3310.190079534TT-2.772-71.77271436.0151749485981.1184889024180.20281736247753171115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:05FORECAST2024164-12231.58623.91827.752181.706853457061.0035438492.2735438497.299.563543849TT-0.414-71.41471434.2214760548578.9010181174090.295006491123421721151210WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024164-12230.81224.29627.554181.701825073021.0240163012.2440163017.319.554016301TT-1.188-70.18871434.2193855237778.8984548317560.26274285127341721151210WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024164-12229.89424.29627.095182.394325176011.0401580421.9801580427.599.570158042TT-2.106-71.10671434.5070385255979.2516180761010.22696001950224171115127.5WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024164-12232.8126.29429.552182.096743753061.0531501752.0931501757.629.713150175TT0.81-67.1971434.383490155779.0998190974420.349428975632031721151210WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024164-12231.71226.07828.895183.211288720671.0177170852.1777170857.629.797717085TT-0.288-70.28871434.8457416609279.6686487243930.300426448161551721151210WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12233.24227.28430.263180.845347645881.0366147332.1866147336.979.156614733TT1.242-56.75871433.8629184968278.4620903262150.36947919252671721151210WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:07FORECAST2024164-12230.5623.97227.266179.141506458950.7905516081.6105516087.348.950551608TT-1.44-62.4471433.1514675494377.595406421710.252641496202661721151210WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024164-12229.0320.91224.971186.004945298890.8271658012.4071658017.159.557165801TT-2.97-60.9771435.9986610376981.0979070967070.19594635792234171115127.5WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2024164-12224.49418.48221.488181.6608408440.2543308461.9143308467.399.304330846TT-7.506-67.50671434.2023454944378.8775631789530.077805141594027171115127.5WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024164-12226.27620.13823.207179.362116750560.2547245471.7447245477.258.994724547TT-5.724-70.72471433.2437585527177.7075176029840.11538758297295171115127.5WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024164-12226.619.32822.964166.9873402307300.616.937.54TT-5.4-56.471427.9860983578571.4682602205040.12341361365136171113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024164-12230.05629.01229.534173.493452108560.5114175990.7914175997.338.121417599TT-1.944-53.94471430.7709407793874.7359375838640.23306814012156171113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:06FORECAST2024164-12222.71218.08620.399172.282176848660.0133858340.5533858347.437.983385834TT-9.288-77.28871430.2559531616774.1254322127870.050310190748542171113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024164-12218.91418.66218.788178.9369027578801.447.518.95TT-13.086-77.08671433.0658265727477.4914576972060.017190295779746171114126WETL