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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 11, 2024

[ Sunday, March 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ]

DAY 163 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/12/2024 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.200
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.26 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-12 04:00:04OBSERVATION2024163-12328.6722.0125.34163.449476250.580000000000041.117.158.26TT-3.33-30.3370425.79960087887 69.5967217511110.2002532026853816 1114126WETL
2024-03-12 00:00:02FORECAST2024163-12227.66220.49824.08168.7835179380.7354334682.4154334687.239.645433468TT-4.338-44.33871428.7595294355372.3675417275690.16761895525741161115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 12:00:02FORECAST2024163-12227.66220.73224.197166.179944698880.8842524462.5642524467.239.794252446TT-4.338-44.33871427.6372839870671.0647402041480.16761895525741161115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 08:00:01FORECAST2024163-12227.10420.58823.846166.225543385350.874016222.554016227.239.78401622TT-4.896-44.89671427.6570027858771.0875176706310.15111428383268161115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 04:00:05FORECAST2024163-12227.60820.73224.17155.806804928130.8708666122.5508666127.239.780866612TT-4.392-44.39271423.0916191399565.9205533700640.16597290576932161115127.5WETL
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024163-12328.54420.62424.584165.691782996530.8255909971.3555909977.158.505590997TT-3.456-30.45670426.7770056428370.7134430068810.19597731553662161114126WETL
2024-03-10 20:00:01FORECAST2024163-12328.25620.28224.269156.048022011090.7885831031.3185831037.158.468583103TT-3.744-30.74470422.5335620049565.9355265841730.18641357618413161114126WETL
2024-03-10 16:00:01FORECAST2024163-12326.90620.17423.54156.255853659430.8098429571.3398429577.158.489842957TT-5.094-32.09470422.6261121820466.037803937770.14552625321239161114126WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024163-12326.88820.73223.81160.96398656120.8519689641.3819689647.158.531968964TT-5.112-32.11270424.7096694827268.3629615310290.14502521238366161114126WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024163-12327.24820.71423.981161.119045450880.8263783991.3563783997.158.506378399TT-4.752-31.75270424.7778669909668.4398044582430.15526658828877161114126WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024163-12327.0520.15623.603160.904821526810.8232287911.3532287917.158.503228791TT-4.95-31.9570424.6836406248468.3336454000960.14957634359489161114126WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:01FORECAST2024163-12327.39221.66824.53163.049165199650.8925201671.3925201677.158.542520167TT-4.608-40.60870425.6245219081769.3977229856280.15949330303174161114126WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024163-12326.99621.50624.251164.388618075210.9877958091.4877958097.158.637795809TT-5.004-41.00470426.2096433972770.0640142884070.14804885535794161114126WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:01FORECAST2024163-12327.03220.33623.684164.786419009221.0318903211.5318903217.158.681890321TT-4.968-40.96870426.3830341881570.2621333301490.14906601976532161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12327.69820.22823.963165.131826666351.003937551.503937557.158.65393755TT-4.302-40.30270426.5334461118870.4342470907470.16872212825604161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024163-12327.69821.39824.548164.975000091370.9929139221.6429139227.158.792913922TT-4.302-40.30270426.4651704468770.3560915334360.16872212825604161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:04FORECAST2024163-12327.64421.7424.692166.145840214481.0161422811.7361422817.158.886142281TT-4.356-40.35670426.9742489421970.9399953404470.16706911057282161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024163-12330.05625.48427.77167.725089677251.137795891.627795897.158.77779589TT-1.944-35.94470427.6585090179971.7290617762820.250864672391011621151210WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024163-12330.48825.08827.788168.236741639721.1728352791.6728352797.158.822835279TT-1.512-35.51270427.8796104736971.9850714801650.267918823054521621151210WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:02FORECAST2024163-12330.32625.08827.707167.528749889741.1370084881.6570084887.158.807008488TT-1.674-35.67470427.57358789271.630868665420.261455832589181621151210WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12326.94222.26224.602169.958523512381.2503943761.7703943767.158.920394376TT-5.058-40.05870428.6215415206972.8478843424540.14653181371052161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024163-12327.73423.03625.385168.70367949651.1484258171.6284258177.158.778425817TT-4.266-39.26670428.0811388904872.2188632538770.16982994471132161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024163-12327.98623.16225.574170.063864848971.1818904021.7118904027.158.861890402TT-4.014-40.01470428.6668287901772.9007376366110.17771450028586161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.74222.44225.592173.240333964621.1354336841.6854336847.158.835433684TT-3.258-40.25870430.0267477543874.4979773946890.20272148608469161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.23822.7325.484172.224671582520.8519689641.4819689647.158.631968964TT-3.762-39.76270429.593112182173.9865326596740.18582557804736161114126WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.36423.48625.925171.788922493130.8318902131.4418902137.158.591890213TT-3.636-38.63670429.4067265393773.76731886350.18996566290952161114126WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024163-12329.71424.15226.933170.655096051190.5204727221.2404727227.158.390472722TT-2.286-35.28670428.9207801250573.1975169305920.23778188316087161114126WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2024163-12329.37223.25226.312170.321140578160.5153546091.2253546097.158.375354609TT-2.628-38.62870428.7773832159873.0298529634660.22508179027014161114126WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:04FORECAST2024163-12329.22823.57626.402171.984033664470.5204727221.5304727227.158.680472722TT-2.772-37.77270429.4902081483373.8654584167440.21985137806314161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2024163-12328.95823.70226.33176.106376740970.5177168151.6977168157.158.847716815TT-3.042-42.04270431.244385410775.9448862045640.21023440790493161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.41823.5425.979177.847145062050.8122051631.9322051637.159.082205163TT-3.582-44.58270431.9796351291976.8263448326730.19175716961436161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2024163-12329.01223.0926.051178.516695376720.8944886721.9744886727.159.124488672TT-2.988-45.98870432.2615690872277.1659068518050.21213782689325161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.07620.44424.26178.726024641930.8173232761.7873232767.158.937323276TT-3.924-44.92470432.3496150247277.2721279488360.18058536957853161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024163-12328.68821.03824.863178.476590022070.8826776422.0726776427.159.222677642TT-3.312-44.31270432.2446950382177.145559225550.20086857793027161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024163-12330.9222.02826.474178.469866389640.8807091372.0407091377.159.190709137TT-1.08-42.0870432.2418659483977.1421480638160.285537178821791621151210WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024163-12329.89422.15426.024183.716123849630.9657485532.0157485537.19.115748553TT-2.106-46.10670434.4346996668379.8126590885690.24462056607378161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024163-12328.32821.34424.836183.801925432260.606299541.946299547.19.04629954TT-3.672-50.67270434.4703207620779.8564814992410.1887770479955161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024163-12328.6721.3825.025184.972628600030.6078743441.9978743447.19.097874344TT-3.33-54.3370434.9555711513380.4548753200880.20025320268538161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12332.03625.39428.715183.87185166030.759842931.809842937.18.90984293TT0.036000000000001-47.96470434.4993453578279.8921991761310.333428471240931621151210WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2024163-12327.12222.92825.025182.800026376340.6185042711.5185042717.18.618504271TT-4.878-52.87870434.0538914121979.3450627989040.1516292540564161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:06FORECAST2024163-12328.16622.80225.484184.802919762821.094488782.134488787.19.23448878TT-3.834-52.83470434.8853171122980.3680763643310.18348508208536161115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2024163-12332.1823.37827.779179.377789215530.9381894832.0781894836.818.888189483TT0.18-50.8270432.6234539796777.6030387376570.339833631560871621151210WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024163-12329.7523.12626.438178.901479496590.4988191671.7988191676.818.608819167TT-2.25-55.2570432.4233769988777.3611819140110.23914118807171161115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:04FORECAST2024163-12330.99223.4527.221177.99148259990.5417325761.5417325766.818.351732576TT-1.008-51.00870432.0404532638576.8995208195650.288526267072031621151210WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12330.14623.66626.906175.968438668560.5818900781.1018900786.817.911890078TT-1.854-57.85470431.1859852689475.875124603540.2543696781155162114128WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2024163-12328.54424.40426.474175.057319863070.6232286831.0632286836.857.913228683TT-3.456-59.45670430.7997219521275.4146447226930.19597731553662161114126WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024163-12328.81423.7226.267175.201640998150.6106302511.0206302516.97.920630251TT-3.186-56.18670430.8609656247975.487548219510.20520782209534161114126WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024163-12329.26423.3626.312173.631847408620.4421262231.1621262236.878.032126223TT-2.736-56.73670430.1936053486174.6953104400550.22115241273537161114126WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024163-12329.5723.86426.717174.281103664620.5389766691.3489766696.818.158976669TT-2.43-56.4370430.4699438713375.0227769123420.23238720844253161114126WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024163-12330.0224.36827.194175.175043172540.6322838061.4222838066.838.252283806TT-1.98-58.9870430.8496803408175.4741113545750.24946985194027162114128WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12330.57824.6227.599173.369199817380.4322836980.5522836986.857.402283698TT-1.422-48.42270430.0816869122874.5629179160910.27154377487556162113126WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:06FORECAST2024163-12329.62423.34226.483173.487263671470.3547246010.8647246016.837.694724601TT-2.376-50.37670430.1320050902874.6224245806340.23440220693345161113124.5WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024163-12330.2923.43226.861178.37688206251.2295282231.6795282236.78.379528223TT-1.71-46.7170432.20273615877.0949764947460.260030547084381621151210WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:04FORECAST2024163-12329.42623.32426.375178.801142628431.3539377392.1539377396.598.743937739TT-2.574-47.57470432.3811989729477.3102524274130.22706119245066161115127.5WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024163-12330.0222.65826.339176.67521742721.2224416051.8124416056.668.472441605TT-1.98-52.9870431.4850047939376.2327070385440.249469851940271621151210WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024163-12332.41426.07829.246166.987340230730.5562995130.5562995136.937.486299513TT0.414-45.58670427.3391971978471.3602359164020.35034056492402162113126WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024163-12335.56426.56431.064168.861787352350.2425198160.2425198167.337.572519816TT3.564-47.43670428.1493234261872.2980600074420.49978506903327163112125WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:06FORECAST2024163-12332.1819.43625.808172.115595958490.4480317380.4480317387.437.878031738TT0.18-59.8270429.5464759478773.9316476996380.33983363156087162112124WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024163-12332.1819.72425.952178.936902757880.5842522840.7542522847.348.094252284TT0.18-57.8270432.4382651020877.3791637913580.33983363156087162113126WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2024163-12329.3926.49227.941167.847829494970.1566929980.2566929987.487.736692998TT-2.61-56.6170427.7115750859671.7904595280510.22574050426586161112123WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:04FORECAST2024163-12328.99427.17628.085166.087380052180.0700787780.1300787787.477.600078778TT-3.006-58.00670426.9488664959870.9108186525670.21150223927958161112123WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:05FORECAST2024163-12327.80624.6226.213169.204288634720.2259843740.5659843747.247.805984374TT-4.194-55.19470428.2969343635672.4696781034170.17205950052301161113124.5WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024163-12322.26217.67219.967171.491254717360.145669370.175669377.487.65566937TT-9.738-69.73870429.2792846219773.6176431439940.05230699315407161112123WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024163-12330.99226.74428.868176.904703096060.3610238170.8410238177.658.491023817TT-1.008-73.00870431.581978763976.3488818148380.28852626707203162113126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:05FORECAST2024163-12330.97430.66830.821171.238774181740.1633859150.4233859157.287.703385915TT-1.026-54.02670429.1711133812673.4907353696180.28777761562132162112124WETL