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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 10, 2024

[ Saturday, March 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, March 11, 2024 ]

DAY 162 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2024 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.174
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -32

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.76 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 69.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-11 00:00:02FORECAST2024162-12326.85223.43225.142162.562911834531.2307093261.7607093267.158.910709326TT-5.148-32.14870425.4116158482469.156151000520.17427207265666161115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 12:00:02FORECAST2024162-12327.1423.43225.286157.594552182651.2279534191.7579534197.158.907953419TT-4.86-31.8670423.2210828638466.6973370281840.18326009972859161115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 08:00:02FORECAST2024162-12326.5122.76624.638157.841806006661.2803156521.8103156527.158.960315652TT-5.49-32.4970423.3307510998566.8192902917550.16396848434047161115127.5WETL
2024-03-10 04:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.01422.85624.935157.625560669211.3090558251.8390558257.158.989055825TT-4.986-31.98670423.2348403053566.7126289978760.17929291088859161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 23:00:01FORECAST2024162-12327.7342325.367159.294416920491.3295282771.8295282777.158.979528277TT-4.266-40.26670423.9736605592267.5366370484280.20268880456305161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024162-12327.98623.14425.565160.201527956071.566929982.066929987.159.21692998TT-4.014-40.01470424.3739363268367.9853530242920.21128920301488161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 15:00:01FORECAST2024162-12327.01420.80423.909160.3608468651.5318905912.0318905917.159.181890591TT-4.986-40.98670424.4441429177868.0642222051830.17929291088859161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.4121.61424.512160.7431696911.2476384691.7476384697.158.897638469TT-4.59-40.5970424.6125041357768.2535598052170.19194337577041161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024162-12327.19423.16225.178160.727401135691.2035439571.8535439577.159.003543957TT-4.806-40.80670424.6055634633768.2457487232230.18497691434576161115127.5WETL
2024-03-09 03:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.21222.78424.998161.816533220921.37795352.09795357.159.2479535TT-4.788-40.78870425.0843019169168.785668062830.18555139441973161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024162-12330.21825.84428.031163.001574961851.0759848331.5659848337.158.715984833TT-1.782-35.78270425.6036961268369.374072778260.296183743342511621151210WETL
2024-03-08 19:00:02FORECAST2024162-12329.04823.25226.15163.314343457341.0460635571.5460635577.158.696063557TT-2.952-36.95270425.740519464869.5295334195810.249799092059181621151210WETL
2024-03-08 15:00:02FORECAST2024162-12330.48824.47627.482162.85400736450.9858273041.5058273047.158.655827304TT-1.512-35.51270425.539103629269.3007483163130.307422888104921621151210WETL
2024-03-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.53621.6524.593164.179959841751.1803155981.7003155987.158.850315598TT-4.464-39.46470426.1186247792969.9601387040840.19608015262933161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024162-12328.2221.59624.908163.582977888871.1082683151.5882683157.158.738268315TT-3.78-38.7870425.8579492262769.663111492080.21946310919947161115127.5WETL
2024-03-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024162-12328.20222.29825.25164.687661840991.2854337651.8154337657.158.965433765TT-3.798-39.79870426.3400049257770.2129385605010.21882798075913161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024162-12329.4822.71226.096167.737245907941.0181107861.5681107867.158.718110786TT-2.52-39.5270427.6637654537271.7351421918250.26646691196751621151210WETL
2024-03-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.61621.9225.268168.009161795970.9740162741.6040162747.158.754016274TT-3.384-39.38470427.7813012997371.8711778633580.2337008520744161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.64422.33424.989167.728837199610.9417327921.5517327927.158.701732792TT-4.356-39.35670427.6601294891271.7309362358460.19966855746521161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024162-12329.06622.85625.961168.229978694971.007874561.727874567.158.87787456TT-2.934-35.93470427.8766898588271.9816864190220.250482376959821621151210WETL
2024-03-07 07:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.72422.31625.52167.822191858660.9862210051.6962210057.158.846221005TT-3.276-39.27670427.7004921235971.7776340472060.23767076016605161115127.5WETL
2024-03-07 03:00:04FORECAST2024162-12327.7723.1825.475169.407421512261.0574808862.0674808867.159.217480886TT-4.23-39.2370428.3844197675172.5714999688410.20390449189599161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 23:00:02FORECAST2024162-12328.424.65626.528173.377124338450.9940950252.1740950257.159.324095025TT-3.6-42.670430.0850647728674.5669117512360.22587226245451161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024162-12328.92225.55627.239173.545520697251.0952761822.2152761827.159.365276182TT-3.078-44.07870430.1568283612474.6517907594280.24504389591137161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 15:00:02FORECAST2024162-12328.32823.6325.979173.770965298811.098425792.178425797.159.32842579TT-3.672-46.67270430.2528555175774.7654540258570.22329600931423161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.44622.98225.214174.364733673291.2543313862.2243313867.159.374331386TT-4.554-45.55470430.5055056238875.064977832990.19311983781552161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024162-12328.11224.47626.294173.921135168331.1897644222.3797644227.159.529764422TT-3.888-44.88870430.3167892201674.8411844631620.21566821557855161115127.5WETL
2024-03-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024162-12328.95825.21427.086174.004854544821.1866148142.3466148147.159.496614814TT-3.042-44.04270430.3524215347374.8834105121610.24639754263574161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024162-12330.00225.28627.644178.22495555361.1086620162.1586620167.19.258662016TT-1.998-45.99870432.1387823497777.0179152772770.287330374384711621151210WETL
2024-03-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024162-12328.99424.2626.627180.10411210381.2267723162.5667723167.19.666772316TT-3.006-50.00670432.9280850036577.9721283543790.24775518062671161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024162-12327.80623.88225.844181.288106095551.2870085692.6770085697.19.777008569TT-4.194-55.19470433.4234671584978.5745194985290.20512450514685161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12330.05624.20627.131179.822483615471.4271661252.4771661257.19.577166125TT-1.944-49.94470432.8100323757877.8289749555070.28953195910431621151210WETL
2024-03-05 07:00:05FORECAST2024162-12328.41824.00826.213179.06208628831.2763786422.1763786427.19.276378642TT-3.582-51.58270432.4908679723577.4427171197650.22651893755653161115127.5WETL
2024-03-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024162-12328.1324.06226.096178.353052410071.0015753442.0415753447.19.141575344TT-3.87-52.8770432.1927066436377.0828884592610.21629804788237161115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 23:00:02FORECAST2024162-12329.42625.1627.293173.946347973680.8653547982.0053547986.818.815354798TT-2.574-53.57470430.3275209934274.8539007093720.264353122623441621151210WETL
2024-03-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.0424.0826.06175.728681096921.015748582.315748586.819.12574858TT-3.96-56.9670431.0844281425175.7538979989040.21315952331626161115127.5WETL
2024-03-04 15:00:04FORECAST2024162-12329.8424.78227.311174.662671913731.1342525812.1342525816.818.944252581TT-2.16-52.1670430.6321356849875.2153594306550.28077353029571621151210WETL
2024-03-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.9419.81424.377172.269736238560.8059059471.3259059476.818.135905947TT-3.06-59.0670429.6123761972674.0092107323250.24572021954027161114126WETL
2024-03-04 07:00:04FORECAST2024162-12328.43621.45224.944171.139907054630.649606651.089606656.857.93960665TT-3.564-59.56470429.1287364402773.441052068860.22716665480987161114126WETL
2024-03-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024162-12326.620.6623.63171.239986254420.6055121381.0155121386.97.915512138TT-5.4-58.470429.1716328401173.4913445083260.16664094650709161114126WETL
2024-03-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.16621.99225.079170.48970949740.4980317651.2180317656.878.088031765TT-3.834-57.83470428.8497801104673.1144744290580.21756089584866161114126WETL
2024-03-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024162-12328.2222.3725.295170.494689586280.5007876721.3107876726.818.120787672TT-3.78-57.7870428.8519184851473.1169747206020.21946310919947161114126WETL
2024-03-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024162-12328.83223.03625.934170.793006513530.531496351.321496356.838.15149635TT-3.168-60.16870428.9799619249173.2667774312140.24167732659513161114126WETL
2024-03-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024162-12329.87624.06226.969170.470978799510.7185043250.8385043256.857.688504325TT-2.124-49.12470428.841737190573.1050706889480.28222434308942162113126WETL
2024-03-03 07:00:06FORECAST2024162-12329.1222.69425.907171.0216719630.4653545820.9753545826.837.805354582TT-2.88-50.8870429.0780439267873.3816444749720.25253815089678162113126WETL
2024-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2024162-12329.08422.62225.853169.404840252720.3539371990.8039371996.77.503937199TT-2.916-47.91670428.3833083520472.5702059183080.25116664955379162113126WETL
2024-03-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024162-12328.07622.08225.079167.224655605730.3094489861.1094489866.597.699448986TT-3.924-48.92470427.4419770380971.4788374016260.2144117398781161114126WETL
2024-03-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024162-12327.89620.87624.386166.429064627420.2700788860.8600788866.667.520078886TT-4.104-55.10470427.0971670014571.0813820090720.20819341670587161113124.5WETL
2024-03-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024162-12334.53825.82630.182162.844006223230.0519685320.0519685326.936.981968532TT2.538-43.46270425.5347251071869.2957794235520.49218255725447162111122WETL
2024-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2024162-12334.82625.03429.93167.083523636830.0389763990.0389763997.337.368976399TT2.826-48.17470427.3808611104371.4083002092730.50590023403641163111122.5WETL
2024-03-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024162-12331.96424.20628.085168.50619347630.0917323330.0917323337.437.521732333TT-0.036000000000001-60.03670427.9959339206172.1199656482970.37186026704883162112124WETL
2024-03-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024162-12333.51226.40229.957174.075417525310.8645673961.0345673967.348.374567396TT1.512-56.48870430.3824483913374.9190043992840.44350048740511162114128WETL
2024-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2024162-12334.7925.66430.227166.408546828320.1090551770.2090551777.487.689055177TT2.79-51.2170427.0882653440371.071137603330.50418557332803163112125WETL
2024-03-01 19:00:04FORECAST2024162-12335.70826.07830.893165.4364591780800.067.477.53TT3.708-51.29270426.6659925375670.5861110571130.54779809284608163111122.5WETL
2024-03-01 15:00:05FORECAST2024162-12330.45221.99226.222166.809341718320.1192914030.4592914037.247.699291403TT-1.548-52.54870427.2620664574271.2713040469720.30591353478545162112124WETL
2024-03-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024162-12330.39821.93826.168169.739945415960.0925197350.1225197357.487.602519735TT-1.602-61.60270428.5275339965872.7382402298160.30365567240665162112124WETL
2024-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024162-12333.90823.2728.589173.814795184140.0870079210.5670079217.658.217007921TT1.908-70.09270430.2715182847174.7875558242270.46222967715122162113126WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:05FORECAST2024162-12334.8827.0530.965169.773595966590.1129921870.3729921877.287.652992187TT2.88-50.1270428.5420100488572.7551180687420.5084720108202163112125WETL
2024-02-29 23:00:05FORECAST2024162-12327.7722.15424.962154.077637302440.0397638010.3697638017.778.139763801TT-4.23-55.2370421.6536921216664.9674046419580.20390449189599161112123WETL
2024-02-29 19:00:04FORECAST2024162-12323.52220.82222.172149.2269993963700.037.427.45TT-8.478-66.47870419.4687962887762.5960698105790.090857543143577161111121.5WETL
2024-02-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024162-12327.17620.6623.918154.4232474542700.058.118.16TT-4.824-72.82470421.8083420156365.1370139773560.18440353819755161111121.5WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:05FORECAST2024162-12324.00822.4623.234166.45866980040.3354332520.5454332528.348.885433252TT-7.992-80.99270427.1100104029871.0961641901170.10073774803069161113124.5WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:06FORECAST2024162-12320.17413.83817.006163.88527632990.0610236550.3610236558.228.581023655TT-11.826-77.82670425.9899989544869.8134886924270.041244840129673161112123WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024162-12320.42619.05819.742165.681424740040.0429134090.8029134097.78.502913409TT-11.574-90.57470426.772503342570.7082763936570.043984241897992161113124.5WETL