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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 9, 2024

[ Thursday, February 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 10, 2024 ]

DAY 132 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/10/2024 07:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.248
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 75

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.42 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 101 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 372.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-10 07:00:10OBSERVATION2024132-15328.0799619.0099423.54495101.307212083330.419999999999960.869999999999967.618.48TT-3.9200475.0799640372.0390886472 37.6902428568720.2483583128671616 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024132-15328.0799619.0099423.54495101.307212083330.419999999999960.869999999999967.618.48TT-3.9200475.0799640372.0390886472 37.6902428568720.2483583128671616 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2024132-15326.67220.15623.41498.3673296757690.0842520140.5342520147.618.144252014TT-5.32873.67240370.3462043947436.4299671818670.2038992937818161113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:06FORECAST2024132-15324.83618.42821.63297.9258387570550.0716535820.5216535827.618.131653582TT-7.16471.83640370.0908854127436.2414603703840.15363468223111161113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:05FORECAST2024132-15326.7819.07622.92897.9462531251760.0807087050.5307087057.618.140708705TT-5.2273.7840370.1026975774836.2501724992340.20713232838175161113124.5WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:01FORECAST2024132-15327.26618.53622.90196.4817026528910.1043307650.1743307657.617.784330765TT-4.73473.26640369.253723038635.6262279096830.2220509221271161112123WETL
2024-02-08 19:00:01FORECAST2024132-15326.63618.55422.59596.320576043060.0685039740.1385039747.617.748503974TT-5.36472.63640369.1601277488135.5577161568940.20282832105363161112123WETL
2024-02-08 15:00:01FORECAST2024132-15325.9718.17622.07396.2147567167750.0437008110.1137008117.617.723700811TT-6.0371.9740369.098638533735.5127357110130.18362595820023161112123WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024132-15325.718.12221.91196.4093662639240.0846457150.1546457157.617.764645715TT-6.371.740369.211708986135.595466880570.17617438508411161112123WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024132-15326.6919.88623.28896.1604618929390.1204725060.2004725067.617.810472506TT-5.3172.6940369.0670826246135.4896611346620.20443603895313161112123WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024132-15327.21218.66222.93796.2069954701660.1240158150.2040158157.617.814015815TT-4.78873.21240369.0941279984135.5094371004080.22036366726824161112123WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2024132-15325.77216.8821.32694.8074202251340.1385827520.1585827527.617.768582752TT-6.22870.77240368.2792936933934.9156097574050.17814255155517161112123WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:01FORECAST2024132-15326.70817.85222.2894.8140015930540.1429134630.1629134637.617.772913463TT-5.29271.70840368.2831321559134.9183974789260.20497362252185161112123WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024132-15327.48219.59823.5494.7829673123190.1437008650.1537008657.617.763700865TT-4.51873.48240368.2650314168934.9052524350570.2288730855385161112123WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024132-15328.23819.05823.64895.044929789840.1956693970.2056693977.617.815669397TT-3.76274.23840368.4177761872935.016241671050.2536519048359162112124WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024132-15326.56419.38222.97395.8453308127310.2700788860.2700788867.617.880078886TT-5.43671.56440368.8838438935635.355794049450.20069646262364161112123WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024132-15327.26619.97623.62195.8787754824130.2826773180.2826773187.617.892677318TT-4.73474.26640368.9032978662635.3699964708410.2220509221271161112123WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024132-15327.5920.78624.18891.490742335680.2968505540.2968505547.457.746850554TT-4.4173.5940366.3367147725233.5164179793520.23232772026019161112123WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024132-15327.1420.87624.00891.5184466370970.295275750.295275757.457.74527575TT-4.8673.1440366.353009058833.5280583098870.21812544637454161112123WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024132-15327.64420.98424.31491.686283199480.2818899160.3318899167.457.781889916TT-4.35672.64440366.4516976311133.5985941279360.23406583854159161112123WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024132-15328.83220.26424.54891.871025576270.1751969450.3051969457.457.755196945TT-3.16873.83240366.5602782597133.6762686992420.27406489016585162112124WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024132-15327.91419.23823.57691.5669155637260.122047310.252047317.447.69204731TT-4.08671.91440366.3815133028233.5484250927090.2428633726323161112123WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024132-15328.0416.44822.24491.5212514867630.1082677750.2282677757.437.658267775TT-3.9672.0440366.3546586673533.5292368492420.24702921684211161112123WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024132-15327.57217.52822.5590.03973938950.0385826980.1385826987.347.478582698TT-4.42871.57240365.4817026633832.9078772594420.23174994445582161112123WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024132-15327.55418.78823.17190.5504479912750.1232284130.2032284137.377.573228413TT-4.44670.55440365.7830001796833.1218145338630.23117296873137161112123WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024132-15327.26618.37422.8291.4069694514730.1562992970.3062992977.447.746299297TT-4.73466.26640366.2874367702733.4812245433180.2220509221271161112123WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024132-15327.08619.32823.20792.9375927367780.2917324410.4417324417.367.801732441TT-4.91468.08640367.186148060434.1253966870230.21645539786894161112123WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:08FORECAST2024132-15325.21416.73620.97592.2780175408990.2330709920.3030709927.357.653070992TT-6.78665.21440366.799304346633.8475126404850.16325048877186161112123WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024132-15325.89818.84222.3791.9746204258520.2240158690.3040158697.37.604015869TT-6.10269.89840366.6211428850133.7198404569410.18161996713409161112123WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024132-15326.83419.1322.98291.2501536324680.0740157880.1840157887.267.444015788TT-5.16666.83440366.1951642898333.4153650009130.20876013015891161112123WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2024132-15326.79818.5922.69490.6198153433680.0267716680.1367716687.187.316771668TT-5.20266.79840365.8238939847733.1508937210920.20767409458499161112123WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024132-15326.7821.05623.91890.535524337270.0377952960.2277952967.067.287795296TT-5.2267.7840365.7742013670833.1155591098150.20713232838175161112123WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024132-15325.3419.63422.48791.25554913630400.317.147.45TT-6.6668.3440366.1983396854633.41763058080.16654061358886161112123WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2024132-15325.41218.03221.72291.65742066359300.367.197.55TT-6.58868.41240366.434729339433.5864621328120.1684397199494161112123WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024132-15323.12615.76419.44591.93979781408100.467.17.56TT-8.87463.12640366.6006854963233.7051929030350.11487636611447161112123WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2024132-15326.22219.59822.9191.922851318430.0122047310.4722047317.227.692204731TT-5.77865.22240366.5907292114633.698065096020.19075479883357161112123WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024132-15325.57418.28421.92991.83118455348300.487.187.66TT-6.42660.57440366.5368663748733.6595146217260.17276327619677161112123WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024132-15324.54815.67420.11192.81332016225100.657.177.82TT-7.45263.54840367.1133111983734.0730052880780.14656459457067161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2024132-15324.83615.72820.28291.0981968966300.47.117.51TT-7.16458.83640366.1057158880333.3515705909490.15363468223111161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:09FORECAST2024132-15328.14815.49421.82193.8960301575370.4303151930.8203151937.057.870315193TT-3.85268.14840367.7471219217934.5299948503160.25063009723263162113126WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:08FORECAST2024132-15325.41214.50419.95893.4748149260580.4066931330.6966931337.047.736693133TT-6.58857.41240367.5007526512434.3520648392610.1684397199494161113124.5WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2024132-15327.35618.2322.79395.8529054661930.5019687750.9919687756.997.981968775TT-4.64460.35640368.8882500349435.3590105581890.22487930786488161114126WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024132-15327.37417.72622.5599.0490256478731.1263785611.4163785616.928.336378561TT-4.62652.37440370.7398746398336.721423351890.22544742152182161114126WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2024132-15329.55218.93224.24297.8613677239791.0129926731.2829926736.948.222992673TT-2.44860.55240370.0535771521336.2139491912580.29984746307511162114128WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:05FORECAST2024132-15326.65418.10422.37998.4262884847321.0594493911.2094493917.078.279449391TT-5.34645.65440370.3802792471736.4551562142370.20336338761517161114126WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:07FORECAST2024132-15328.1318.42823.27991.101987440080.2838584210.2838584216.917.193858421TT-3.8755.1340366.107947588133.3531616428850.25002802881156162112124WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:07FORECAST2024132-15328.4917.61823.05491.8523426822210.3456694780.3456694786.997.335669478TT-3.5156.4940366.5492998766333.6684119021960.26221354621122162112124WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024132-15328.99420.98424.98992.719975567120.4799215190.4799215196.87.279921519TT-3.00651.99440367.0585862784434.0336631514390.27976950636122162112124WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024132-15328.11218.84223.47791.8364070182780.3688978370.3688978376.747.108897837TT-3.88853.11240366.539935400533.6617106958940.24942672751553162112124WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024132-15328.14820.6624.40489.633089645257006.866.86TT-3.85246.14840365.2415160249432.7377255480330.25063009723263162111122WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:05FORECAST2024132-15328.8519.86824.35990.5757164031600.017.017.02TT-3.1554.8540365.7978973806233.132406614020.27469589118748162111122WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:08FORECAST2024132-15330.21819.8525.03490.510480465363006.946.94TT-1.78256.21840365.7594350423633.1050622004240.32462813769855162111122WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:08FORECAST2024132-15330.7421.0225.8891.07358786143900.037.027.05TT-1.2655.7440366.0912266816133.341241498490.34461591381554162111122WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:04FORECAST2024132-15332.64825.05228.8594.0961177836270.0507874290.0507874296.977.020787429TT0.64857.64840367.8640610909634.6145800207780.42103714956227162111122WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2024132-15330.23621.99226.11494.748090600960.0397638010.1197638017.027.139763801TT-1.76453.23640368.2446878780234.8904810503890.32530944527457162112124WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2024132-15333.7124.11628.91395.9837533799120.1594489050.2394489057.097.329448905TT1.7163.7140368.9643502907835.4145832042890.46511497440966162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:05FORECAST2024132-15340.51427.60834.06192.202445450797006.756.75TT8.51488.51440366.7549395917733.8157023115210.7349997653899164111123WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:09FORECAST2024132-15329.85824.81827.33892.8513554665270.0161417410.0461417417.027.066141741TT-2.14268.85840367.1356063478934.0890386894270.31112755175165162111122WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:06FORECAST2024132-15328.92221.52425.22391.9270153161230.0153543390.0153543396.866.875354339TT-3.07855.92240366.5931756535533.699816473090.27722702787498162111122WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:05FORECAST2024132-15322.29817.3319.81493.64412610501100.056.816.86TT-9.70237.29840367.5998146361134.4235633979620.098836577832427161111121.5WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2024132-15325.9720.51623.24392.111713568623006.656.65TF-6.0349.9740366.7016639980733.7775186393280.18362595820023161111121.5WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2024132-15324.7120.51622.61393.56742535610600.086.726.8TT-7.2950.7140367.5549432057434.3911697126710.15051426962231161111121.5WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:04FORECAST2024132-15329.46225.93427.69898.7128215922970.1047244660.5647244666.677.234724466TT-2.53847.46240370.5458065138436.5776220901740.29656533486301162113126WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:08FORECAST2024132-15321.4718.93220.20197.3101957534060.0807087050.3407087056.97.240708705TT-10.5332.4740369.7343740586535.978924316410.084495286277783161112123WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:08FORECAST2024132-15319.90418.73419.31995.09594661655900.246.847.08TT-12.09648.90440368.4475111959935.0378648556970.061711841168082161112123WETL