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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 8, 2024

[ Wednesday, February 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, February 9, 2024 ]

DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/09/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.92°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.182
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.38 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 98 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 369.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-09 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024131-15425.9199620.5100623.2150197.5916683333330.380.728.218.93TT-6.0800480.9199639369.02938258201 36.0141931101980.1823109871708816 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024131-15425.9199620.5100623.2150197.5916683333330.380.728.218.93TT-6.0800480.9199639369.02938258201 36.0141931101980.1823109871708816 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:01FORECAST2024131-15424.54816.95220.759600.348.218.55TT-7.45279.54839368.1022229369135.3378134019440.14461639718179161112123WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024131-15425.48417.67221.57895.6097296520460.0129921330.3529921338.218.562992133TT-6.51680.48439367.8743145179235.172363756990.16971995372755161112123WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024131-15425.2516.68220.96695.6140352152860.0133858340.3533858348.218.563385834TT-6.7580.2539367.8768300951135.1741881876010.16319696422394161112123WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:02FORECAST2024131-15425.5216.53821.02994.0831172071560.0161417410.2861417418.218.496141741TT-6.4878.5239366.9806363882634.5266822260740.17073809675913161112123WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:01FORECAST2024131-15425.98816.68221.33594.0899177059240.0181102460.2881102468.218.498110246TT-6.01278.98839366.9846250856134.5295531736440.18432732032576161112123WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024131-15426.99616.39421.69594.0696421447840.0137795350.2837795358.218.493779535TT-5.00479.99639366.9727326548234.5209936377330.21579830305003161112123WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:01FORECAST2024131-15427.24818.15822.70394.0633453866660.0125984320.2825984328.218.492598432TT-4.75280.24839366.969039228734.5183354831820.22412606422428161112123WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024131-15426.07818.78822.43394.49456166666700.278.218.48TT-5.92279.07839367.2218369822834.7004665200680.18701560196682161112123WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024131-15426.83419.11222.97394.49456166666700.278.218.48TT-5.16680.83439367.2218369822834.7004665200680.21054062676256161112123WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024131-15426.8719.7623.3159000.118.218.32TT-5.1379.8739364.573282590732.8115954331630.21170247028855161112123WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024131-15427.1420.98424.0629000.118.218.32TT-4.8680.1439364.573282590732.8115954331630.2205349164148161112123WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024131-15426.70821.00223.85590.2302418651080.0464567180.1564567188.218.366456718TT-5.29278.70839364.7096955083432.9078440362670.20650369466872161112123WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024131-15427.21222.13624.67490.9681001991060.1251969180.2351969188.218.445196918TT-4.78879.21239365.1463222066733.2166672258320.22292534606545161112123WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024131-15425.98821.54223.76590.906400060370.125984320.225984328.218.43598432TT-6.01277.98839365.1098425753433.1908214151330.18432732032576161112123WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.57420.3922.98290.8864966190680.0972441470.2072441478.218.417244147TT-6.42677.57439365.0980736317633.1824848347610.1722726067591161112123WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024131-15425.3418.7722.05589.8087917370380.0783464990.1683464998.148.308346499TT-6.6678.3439364.4599355176532.7317064453990.16568632186614161112123WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024131-15425.2518.37421.81289.8153822008370.082677210.182677218.148.32267721TT-6.7577.2539364.4638432198132.7344593771740.16319696422394161112123WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024131-15424.49418.2321.36290.4805956648390.1381890510.3181890518.148.458189051TT-7.50673.49439364.8579337712133.0125631806620.14324846883041161112123WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024131-15424.58418.53621.5691.2674178510560.1448819680.2448819688.148.384881968TT-7.41674.58439365.3232098594233.3421060449290.14553320887997161112123WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:07FORECAST2024131-15424.36817.09620.73290.8302234104650.0334645850.2034645858.098.293464585TT-7.63274.36839365.0647959546933.158916975860.14009061850302161112123WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024131-15424.67417.11420.89490.6319451592650.0366141930.1766141938.078.246614193TT-7.32677.67439364.9475043826133.0759022032150.14784225850441161112123WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024131-15425.5219.65222.58690.816245014970.0818898080.1918898088.058.241889808TT-6.4873.5239365.0565289650133.1530631788010.17073809675913161112123WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.21418.73421.97490.4582360760750.0503937280.1703937287.998.160393728TT-6.78674.21439364.8446981544633.0032078367610.16220804455513161112123WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024131-15426.13220.9323.53190.3247000613650.0464567180.1864567187.938.116456718TT-5.86875.13239364.7656367055432.9473467281210.18864012639645161112123WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024131-15425.57421.77623.67591.2555491363040.141732360.371732367.958.32173236TT-6.42676.57439365.3161983692833.3371302905750.1722726067591161112123WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2024131-15425.23221.00223.11791.6574206635930.1086614760.4386614767.988.418661476TT-6.76877.23239365.553488012833.5056898258330.16270201692349161112123WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024131-15424.4419.23821.83991.9397978140810.1255906190.4555906197.978.425590619TT-7.5674.4439365.7200760028333.6242298442510.14188928190153161112123WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024131-15426.29419.9423.11791.8395778358810.1673229250.5673229257.988.547322925TT-5.70673.29439365.6609650495733.5821486612130.19356555262381161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2024131-15425.84418.51822.18191.8311845534830.1566929980.5766929987.958.526692998TT-6.15668.84439365.6560139073733.5786248962180.18007626134108161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.71817.0621.38992.8133201622510.1318898350.7518898357.948.691889835TT-6.28272.71839366.234653388433.9914541394480.1764073909238161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.7916.82621.30891.0981968966300.477.918.38TT-6.2167.7939365.2232219318233.2711769827670.17849807433066161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:09FORECAST2024131-15427.75217.92422.83891.1810248001920.3263781290.4563781297.858.306378129TT-4.24873.75239365.2721679924633.3058906085410.24131624658038161112123WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:08FORECAST2024131-15424.7116.03420.37290.702926258540.1905512840.3305512847.878.200551284TT-7.2965.7139364.9895000662733.1056157096520.14877269045354161112123WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2024131-15425.73620.1222.92892.479675523140.2767718030.5367718037.818.346771803TT-6.26466.73639366.0382436672733.8510980034090.17692860734004161113124.5WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.12417.36621.24590.9939498117880.0688976750.3088976757.778.078897675TT-6.87659.12439365.1616038497433.2274966538950.15975280870128161112123WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2024131-15425.66418.33822.00190.8424272725340.0468504190.2668504197.818.076850419TT-6.33664.66439365.0720132241733.1640278105540.17484956352053161112123WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:04FORECAST2024131-15423.79215.5319.66190.8430852764130.0137795350.1537795357.948.093779535TT-8.20852.79239365.0724023562133.164303379310.12625780068547161112123WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:06FORECAST2024131-15425.59217.83421.71389.203349527584007.787.78TT-6.40860.59239364.100669795132.4789993109590.17278605471256161111121.5WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024131-15425.30417.7821.54289.546646783395007.867.86TT-6.69662.30439364.304448115332.6222417370.16468765494586161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024131-15429.9317.63623.78389.300994342203007.677.67TT-2.0756.9339364.1586490071932.5197294546550.32311895741014162111122WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024131-15427.66218.37423.01889007.617.61TT-4.33858.66239363.979879425532.3942092688690.23819507473051161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024131-15428.14818.51823.33389.633089645257007.737.73TT-3.85252.14839364.3557318618132.6583299767330.25530918987872162111122WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024131-15428.38219.92224.15290.5757164031600.137.767.89TT-3.61860.38239364.9142314888233.0523679428080.26377251674634162112124WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:07FORECAST2024131-15428.20218.10423.15390.51048046536300.087.737.81TT-3.79860.20239364.8756227156333.025067922090.25724960579858162111122WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:08FORECAST2024131-15428.68819.02223.85591.07358786143900.147.787.92TT-3.31258.68839365.2086775616833.2608645836730.27505154445068162112124WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024131-15431.40622.35226.87993.69054748041700.087.767.84TT-0.59459.40639366.7502655961334.361033172290.38427298900578162111122WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2024131-15429.1220.26424.69294.39893631360400.097.887.97TT-2.8857.1239367.1658011281434.6600610772280.29136822767788162111122WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2024131-15431.06423.01827.04194.75461334639200.177.878.04TT-0.93664.06439367.3741568099134.8103961819790.36977732901683162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:05FORECAST2024131-15433.6227.03230.32692.39275105079700.117.517.62TT1.6281.6239365.9870456850233.8145499997930.48117458668985162112124WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:09FORECAST2024131-15430.43424.83627.63592.7082311215910.0259842660.1459842667.777.915984266TT-1.56673.43439366.172807592533.9472332767270.3435663848648162112124WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:06FORECAST2024131-15429.89421.77625.83591.927015316123007.737.73TT-2.10660.89439365.7125375683733.6188620423460.32167775312931162111122WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:05FORECAST2024131-15429.71418.6824.19793.64412610501100.27.537.73TT-2.28648.71439366.7230090562234.3414557056690.31451223873491162112124WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2024131-15432.0920.51626.30392.11171356862300.047.487.52TT0.09000000000000358.0939365.8214389528833.6964396020890.41373554632837162111122WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2024131-15433.33221.48827.4193.5674253561060.0755905920.0755905927.597.665590592TT1.33260.33239366.6779667900234.3091132873540.46837903982364162111122WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2024131-15429.28220.82225.05297.803073890340.4618112730.5318112737.478.001811273TT-2.71852.28239369.152246273736.1042244190910.29760120732396162113126WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:08FORECAST2024131-15429.2119.45424.33296.2638610831240.2594489590.3194489597.718.029448959TT-2.7945.2139368.2561834519335.4497620868180.29482348748426162112124WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:08FORECAST2024131-15427.51820.44423.98195.0959466165590.2417324140.4117324147.547.951732414TT-4.48262.51839367.5739329911534.9547911093650.23324746491224161112123WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:05FORECAST2024131-15422.22617.18619.70698.25548501165700.197.938.12TT-9.77441.22639369.4149548928836.297045563560.093537101101379161112123WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024131-15427.66224.42226.04296.785578774484007.747.74TT-4.33844.66239368.5602973813635.6713216953510.23819507473051161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:06FORECAST2024131-15427.66224.42226.04296.712694435882007.787.78TT-4.33844.66239368.5178366589335.6403529309680.23819507473051161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:05FORECAST2024131-15429.55227.80628.67996.08614337965007.547.54TT-2.44851.55239368.1524981516735.3743537229770.30812233049837162111122WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:11FORECAST2024131-15424.6223.39624.00895.757872637812007.497.49TT-7.3842.6239367.960853032735.2351485004060.14645391016158161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:09FORECAST2024131-15424.67424.42224.54896.620257663853007.437.43TT-7.32638.67439368.4639738352535.6010840918090.14784225850441161111121.5WETL