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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 7, 2024

[ Tuesday, February 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 8, 2024 ]

DAY 130 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.242
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 89

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 96 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 366.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 35.06 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-08 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024130-15529.1599621.9799425.5699595.550990.0699999999999360.739999999999948.669.3999999999999TT-2.8400489.1599638366.96410125258 35.0637831691440.2418265985074916 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024130-15529.1599621.9799425.5699595.550990.0699999999999360.739999999999948.669.3999999999999TT-2.8400489.1599638366.96410125258 35.0637831691440.2418265985074916 1113124.5WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:01FORECAST2024130-15526.63617.25821.9479400.678.669.33TT-5.36486.63638366.052531515634.4089379624660.15000029849454161113124.5WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2024130-15527.30218.35622.82994.49456166666700.678.669.33TT-4.69887.30238366.3435923548434.6174771789620.17162816649927161113124.5WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:06FORECAST2024130-15528.38218.9523.66694.49456166666700.678.669.33TT-3.61888.38238366.3435923548434.6174771789620.21070411956396161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:01FORECAST2024130-15528.86818.89623.8829000.518.669.17TT-3.13286.86838363.6849543097732.7316458878790.22986383504371161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024130-15528.8519.20224.0269000.518.669.17TT-3.1586.8538363.6849543097732.7316458878790.2291372877485161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:01FORECAST2024130-15528.05819.95824.0089000.518.669.17TT-3.94286.05838363.6849543097732.7316458878790.1984676041362161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024130-15528.34621.61424.9890.38695343437700.518.669.17TT-3.65486.34638363.9150422223832.8931719754240.20932308519258161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2024130-15527.69821.43424.56690.31090178676600.58.669.16TT-4.30285.69838363.8698387049632.861413266450.18538544711746161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024130-15527.21221.70424.45890.3988077773730.0244094620.5144094628.669.174409462TT-4.78886.21238363.922087410732.898122825780.168594652872161113124.5WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024130-15527.64421.54224.59389.3811007927490.0244094620.4244094628.669.084409462TT-4.35686.64438363.3164777768632.473626719840.18347024458071161112123WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024130-15527.5921.23624.41389.36823542877700.438.669.09TT-4.4185.5938363.3088119255232.4682674375090.18156739528247161112123WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024130-15525.720.53423.11789.7006738506950.0122047310.5122047318.669.172204731TT-6.382.738363.5068156131132.6068063098160.12279983118291161113124.5WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:04FORECAST2024130-15526.1519.852390.4914906129530.0122047310.4322047318.669.092204731TT-5.8584.1538363.9771626981532.9368360016290.1354136611324161112123WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:07FORECAST2024130-15526.0619.23822.64990.6370928078520.0381889970.4481889978.669.108188997TT-5.9484.0638364.0636582863632.9976715840670.13282259245301161112123WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024130-15526.83420.06623.4590.4248099408380.0381889970.3981889978.669.058188997TT-5.16686.83438363.937540087532.9089828927490.1562320144785161112123WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2024130-15526.92421.14624.03590.3358763208720.0283464720.3583464728.659.008346472TT-5.07681.92438363.8846840114832.8718418099210.15912005633448161112123WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024130-15527.1421.99224.56690.1695399182360.0574803460.3074803468.658.957480346TT-4.8683.1438363.785792947332.8023975788490.16619275284038161112123WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024130-15526.8722.42424.64790.084700041060.1401575560.2701575568.658.920157556TT-5.1382.8738363.7353374708332.7669887703940.15738307197711161112123WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024130-15527.7723.12625.44890.5176164614530.1712599350.3812599358.659.031259935TT-4.2384.7738363.9926852219332.9477502756930.1879582334955161112123WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2024130-15527.8622.98225.42191.0672732439550.2523623410.5123623418.659.162362341TT-4.1485.8638364.3190219697433.1775399216890.19120497653517161113124.5WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024130-15526.43821.93824.18891.2111403630060.3275592320.4975592328.659.147559232TT-5.56284.43838364.4043621170233.2377374219470.14393611773538161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024130-15526.79821.59624.19790.8382771618190.2944883480.6344883488.69.234488348TT-5.20280.79838364.1831200626733.0817671979090.15508650227105161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2024130-15526.25820.40823.33390.8842617959230.3161419030.6161419038.69.216141903TT-5.74277.25838364.2104168269233.10099487170.13856826387038161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024130-15526.0620.01223.03691.9259777538030.5153546090.8053546098.69.405354609TT-5.9481.0638364.8279324529533.5371644026360.13282259245301161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2024130-15525.71819.2222.46991.098196896630.4023624220.6323624228.69.232362422TT-6.28275.71838364.337368118933.1904772976950.12328805305552161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:08FORECAST2024130-15526.04220.58823.31589.1684255643360.0614173560.2314173568.68.831417356TT-5.95880.04238363.1897226791132.3850557524440.13230849106236161112123WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:08FORECAST2024130-15524.94417.76221.35389.4347612707350.1043307650.2643307658.68.864330765TT-7.05674.94438363.3484487724132.4959817740520.10350317710609161112123WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:04FORECAST2024130-15525.8821.25423.56790.6537283509910.2122048390.3222048398.68.922204839TT-6.1274.8838364.0735386637733.0046236738090.12774310334903161112123WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2024130-15525.12417.31221.21890.4945315026570.2236221680.2636221688.68.863622168TT-6.87668.12438363.9789694783832.9381063197660.10788553451708161112123WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2024130-15525.6119.02222.31690.5076889205180.2188977560.2788977568.68.878897756TT-6.3972.6138363.9867869514832.9436028845840.12037900260764161112123WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:04FORECAST2024130-15524.22416.71820.47190.7388031256070.1358268450.3258268458.68.925826845TT-7.77663.22438364.12406074833.0401814615090.08726074797157161112123WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:06FORECAST2024130-15525.98818.6822.33489.203349527584008.638.63TT-6.01268.98838363.2105421689532.39959694520.1307743991194161111121.5WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024130-15525.82618.62622.22689.54664678339500.058.668.71TT-6.17470.82638363.4150963199132.5426032659120.12624585700763161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024130-15525.08817.63621.36289.30099434220300.068.468.52TT-6.91261.08838363.2687421211932.4402598848640.10699857498114161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024130-15525.4318.39221.91189008.468.46TT-6.5765.4338363.0892919227332.3149469811230.11563834251108161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2024130-15523.91817.52820.72389.63308964525700.128.468.58TT-8.08257.91838363.466575315432.57863212830.08096334644469161112123WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024130-15527.10419.65223.37890.575716403160.0141732360.2441732368.58.744173236TT-4.89666.10438364.0272012784732.9720245460350.16500011210949161112123WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:07FORECAST2024130-15527.62617.63622.63190.51048046536300.158.518.66TT-4.37465.62638363.9884455128332.9447690872070.18283458799774161112123WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:08FORECAST2024130-15528.29218.24823.2791.0735878614390.0271653690.2071653698.568.767165369TT-3.70864.29238364.32276837533.1801816555230.20726153310811161112123WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024130-15528.70620.10224.40493.69054748041700.228.478.69TT-3.29461.70638365.8702255883634.2785817421570.22337141620294161112123WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2024130-15526.70820.1223.41494.3989363136040.0751968910.3851968918.438.815196891TT-5.29261.70838366.2873431593634.577135579380.15224697787418161112123WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2024130-15531.47822.65827.06894.7546133463920.0759842930.4459842938.448.885984293TT-0.52267.47838366.4964920989634.7272334016460.34753724713047162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:05FORECAST2024130-15535.52824.7130.11992.42896225079700.118.368.47TT3.52881.52838365.125510679533.7481720433980.55839737147501163112125WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:08FORECAST2024130-15534.19622.7328.46392.54206024601800.278.478.74TT2.19677.19638365.1923699490733.7956543012130.48790370159175162112124WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:06FORECAST2024130-15530.72220.44425.58391.92701531612300.128.468.58TT-1.27864.72238364.828546692233.5375993995330.31115710765521162112124WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:05FORECAST2024130-15528.38219.423.89193.6441261050110.0539370370.2039370378.388.583937037TT-3.61853.38238365.8428652765534.2590354105760.21070411956396161112123WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2024130-15530.75821.99226.37592.11220556862300.048.338.37TT-1.24259.75838364.9381538171833.6152582442420.31285183528359162111122WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2024130-15528.77822.76625.77293.01317952922700.188.268.44TT-3.22260.77838365.4706713538933.9935891673070.22624399288724161112123WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2024130-15528.54420.55224.54893.83995558186100.198.28.39TT-3.45656.54438365.9582633875934.3415071811060.21698444528018161112123WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:07FORECAST2024130-15526.90618.0522.47893.89879444035600.248.388.62TT-5.09449.90638365.9929246524834.3662943985680.15853967511306161112123WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:07FORECAST2024130-15530.6522.33426.49292.80168667115300.188.388.56TT-1.3568.6538365.3457786679733.9047044785730.30777965379992162112124WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:05FORECAST2024130-15529.60621.25425.4398.25548501165700.268.718.97TT-2.39452.60638368.5450599678936.2115736157960.26073549829171162112124WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024130-15532.64824.828.72496.785578774484008.598.59TT0.64850.64838367.6871485793835.5868134831950.40660035696027162111122WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:05FORECAST2024130-15533.33225.93429.63396.712694435882008.638.63TT1.33251.33238367.6445261992535.5558927233320.4422419883298162111122WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:05FORECAST2024130-15534.75427.30231.02896.08614337965008.398.39TT2.75455.75438367.2777967645635.2903070400820.51751614887654163111122.5WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:11FORECAST2024130-15532.8124.94428.87795.757872637812008.348.34TT0.8151.8138367.0854220087135.1513190879080.41498363577256162111122WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:08FORECAST2024130-15531.74821.05626.40296.620257663853008.288.28TT-0.25247.74838367.5904583074535.516684796440.36090090659433162111122WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:06FORECAST2024130-15524.5322.92823.729102.1512492799600.029.049.06TT-7.4727.5338370.8033906388837.8780295910080.093915564564294161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024130-15526.63622.67624.656101.89044715633009.079.07TT-5.36430.63638370.6529035141437.7659900788490.15000029849454161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:05FORECAST2024130-15529.76825.98827.878100.88916596406009.129.12TT-2.23239.76838370.0742208184337.336479483170.26778651629886162111122WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:06FORECAST2024130-15525.46622.29823.882100.7350554370700.049.019.05TT-6.53421.46638369.9850230704937.2704618098930.11657573828109161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:09FORECAST2024130-15528.95827.5928.274102.650887520420.0814961070.3114961078.859.161496107TT-3.04217.95838371.0914118608838.0928627787240.23351581894021161112123WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:07FORECAST2024130-15529.04828.72428.886101.9724470919100.238.929.15TT-2.95227.04838370.7002295735137.8012095471430.23719970322768161112123WETL