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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 6, 2024

[ Monday, February 5, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 ]

DAY 129 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/07/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.316
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 102

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.27 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 94 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 365.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 34.53 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-07 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024129-15630.2799222.2600226.2699794.4945616666670.269999999999980.679999999999988.889.56TT-1.72008102.2799237365.46200404885 34.5341718784180.3155780284966316 2113126WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024129-15630.2799222.2600226.2699794.4945616666670.269999999999980.679999999999988.889.56TT-1.72008102.2799237365.46200404885 34.5341718784180.3155780284966316 2113126WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2024129-15628.36423.34225.85390.3869534343770.1137795890.5237795898.889.403779589TT-3.636100.36437363.0242078695332.8126521722540.24607223144447161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2024129-15627.69823.19825.44890.3109017867660.0976378480.5076378488.889.387637848TT-4.30299.69837362.9788322519632.7809456701810.22398668771027161113124.5WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2024129-15629.35423.9926.67290.2874585362480.0909449310.5009449318.889.380944931TT-2.646101.35437362.9648432533732.7711732353540.28094409001284162113126WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024129-15629.58824.85427.22189.2613520479110.0720472830.4120472838.889.292047283TT-2.412100.58837362.3517306583132.3440053954610.28952189769897162112124WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:01FORECAST2024129-15629.49825.05227.27589.3682354287770.1031496620.4431496628.889.323149662TT-2.502100.49837362.4156695150132.3884488762950.28620822606485162112124WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:01FORECAST2024129-15628.32823.91826.12389.6475176898780.1740158420.5140158428.889.394015842TT-3.67299.32837362.5826574338532.5046351963440.24484933989799161113124.5WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2024129-15628.9423.5426.2490.4414051353420.0929134360.4329134368.889.312913436TT-3.0699.9437363.0566906646232.8353572474950.26607540757012162112124WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:06FORECAST2024129-15629.10222.76625.93490.475652364260.1334646390.4234646398.889.303464639TT-2.898100.10237363.0771183168732.8496391382540.27184590133733162112124WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024129-15630.52424.06227.29390.2665158455250.1003937550.3703937558.889.250393755TT-1.476101.52437362.9523456781832.762443662330.3250020898918162112124WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:02FORECAST2024129-15630.39824.45827.42890.2075045771330.0834646120.3334646128.889.213464612TT-1.60297.39837362.9171270587332.737848400270.32012269438167162112124WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2024129-15631.44226.00628.72489.9131087382950.0637795620.2537795628.889.133779562TT-0.55898.44237362.7413492774632.615202381460.36141579994724162112124WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024129-15631.29826.09628.69789.44159450215600.138.889.01TT-0.70298.29837362.4595437044932.4189595314530.35560977177903162112124WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:01FORECAST2024129-15631.67626.11428.89589.7323296568710.0578740470.2078740478.889.087874047TT-0.32498.67637362.6333445998732.5399348222090.37091846103231162112124WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2024129-15631.62225.32228.47289.9153775188640.0779527980.2579527988.889.137952798TT-0.37899.62237362.7427044229432.6161472104020.36871829915128162112124WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024129-15630.8324.92627.87889.61260554806700.178.889.05TT-1.1799.8337362.5617893102232.4901066122580.33697625694318162112124WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:04FORECAST2024129-15630.23624.78227.50989.3076548929420.1122047850.3422047858.839.172204785TT-1.76496.23637362.3794316790632.3632572246940.31389467189958162112124WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2024129-15629.46223.16226.31289.1919944740560.098425250.298425258.839.12842525TT-2.53893.46237362.3102308794632.3151721104950.2848878140022162112124WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024129-15629.80422.9126.35789.1259319724030.1003937550.2903937558.839.120393755TT-2.19696.80437362.2706958928432.287713397740.29754727290418162112124WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2024129-15627.46422.74825.10688.8821583700510.0661417680.2261417688.839.056141768TT-4.53692.46437362.1247525956832.1864296099250.21650233976697161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:08FORECAST2024129-15629.73223.70226.71788.867910483470.0724409840.1724409848.839.002440984TT-2.26895.73237362.1162198218632.1805118077410.29486088728917162112124WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:07FORECAST2024129-15627.15821.90224.5388.8827831751220.0437008110.1637008118.838.993700811TT-4.84292.15837362.1251267718532.1866891251250.20693644675918161112123WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:04FORECAST2024129-15630.75823.75627.25789.4831453693050.0543307380.1143307388.838.944330738TT-1.24290.75837362.4843905913132.4362434173860.33414334454941162112124WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2024129-15625.71821.84823.78389.2204704342150.0248031630.0448031638.838.874803163TT-6.28284.71837362.3272702212332.3270095002830.16537818530043161111121.5WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024129-15628.5822.24425.41289.27701277347700.068.838.89TT-3.4288.5837362.3611001682332.350516568330.25347777180813162111122WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:04FORECAST2024129-15627.10419.09423.09989.92472211749700.198.839.02TT-4.89681.10437362.7482858810832.6200388064540.20527464440624161112123WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:06FORECAST2024129-15627.42820.28223.85589.203349527584008.868.86TT-4.57285.42837362.3170256229532.3198922764390.21536385997675161111121.5WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024129-15626.63619.79623.21689.54664678339500.058.898.94TT-5.36486.63637362.5223585584432.4626615929160.19120666683801161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024129-15625.80819.77822.79389.30099434220300.068.698.75TT-6.19277.80837362.3754471557532.3604877562090.16780598890836161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024129-15626.4220.53423.47789008.698.69TT-5.5882.4237362.1953137492632.2353829236840.18491766628936161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2024129-15623.46818.73421.10189.63308964525700.128.698.81TT-8.53276.46837362.5740335462632.4986308518950.11205360073279161112123WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024129-15627.64420.15623.990.4834590594240.1200788050.2300788058.738.960078805TT-4.35680.64437363.0817745749632.8528948849770.22224662419073161112123WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:07FORECAST2024129-15627.46419.29223.37890.5104804653630.082677210.152677218.748.89267721TT-4.53680.46437363.0978906231232.8641645362590.21650233976697161112123WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:07FORECAST2024129-15626.97819.18423.08190.8786467555460.1082677750.1782677758.798.968267775TT-5.02277.97837363.3173613916233.0177901460660.20142800609331161112123WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024129-15626.65421.0223.83793.6905474804170.0842520140.2242520148.78.924252014TT-5.34674.65437364.9868350666234.1958164005360.1917365907016161112123WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2024129-15625.55620.73223.14493.8613371675360.011811030.311811038.668.97181103TT-6.44476.55637365.0878522371934.2676339946070.1610655657722161112123WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2024129-15629.58822.74826.16894.2897049114420.090551230.370551238.679.04055123TT-2.41277.58837365.3410266832834.447897598010.28952189769897162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:04FORECAST2024129-15633.87227.03230.45292.5234262507970.1118110840.1118110848.598.701811084TT1.87287.87237364.2953423475233.7058532411990.46318472712641162112124WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:08FORECAST2024129-15633.09825.01629.05792.5874226460180.1161417950.2661417958.78.966141795TT1.09885.09837364.3333118956833.7326823325080.43016699685636162112124WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2024129-15629.91223.68426.79891.92701531612300.128.698.81TT-2.08875.91237363.941190260233.4560273712170.30159764085563162112124WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:04FORECAST2024129-15629.26423.66626.46593.2137212900980.1488189780.1488189788.618.758818978TT-2.73667.26437364.7045740658833.9954705202010.27767791634561162112124WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024129-15630.23623.82827.03292.1122055686230.03937010.03937018.568.5993701TT-1.76471.23637364.0512146846133.5335603245360.31389467189958162111122WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024129-15630.8322.80226.81693.01317952922700.188.498.67TT-1.1773.8337364.5857596376233.9112807149740.33697625694318162112124WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2024129-15628.5622325.78193.8399555818610.0712598810.1912598818.438.621259881TT-3.43869.56237365.0752080459234.2586413070680.25285620851824162112124WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:07FORECAST2024129-15627.42821.0224.22493.8987944403560.0610236550.2410236558.618.851023655TT-4.57265.42837365.1100012741934.2833889577640.21536385997675161112123WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:07FORECAST2024129-15630.93826.0628.49992.8016866711530.1748032440.1848032448.618.794803244TT-1.06279.93837364.4603914566233.8225390520030.34124296504828162112124WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024129-15630.21825.0727.64498.2554850116570.1897638820.2597638828.949.199763882TT-1.78265.21837367.6718531535836.125776256740.31320588553767162112124WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024129-15632.16225.26828.71596.796107574484008.828.82TT0.16260.16237366.8168554741135.5064438026060.39090200559818162111122WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:05FORECAST2024129-15632.91826.36629.64296.740246435882008.868.86TT0.91859.91837366.784065386335.4827808742250.42254934787292162111122WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:05FORECAST2024129-15633.11626.65429.88596.14065697965008.628.62TT1.11663.11637366.4318175441835.2289956769450.43093024213097162111122WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:10FORECAST2024129-15632.43225.30428.86895.769582237812008.578.57TT0.43261.43237366.2135490280835.0721186002460.40213356091849162111122WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:08FORECAST2024129-15629.19221.21825.20596.620257663853008.518.51TT-2.80858.19237366.7136171058735.4319641736130.27507838635414162111122WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:05FORECAST2024129-15629.7520.62425.187102.1512492799600.029.279.29TT-2.2544.7537369.9387818069437.7897087186870.29553143604405162111122WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024129-15628.83220.49824.665101.89044715633009.39.3TT-3.16845.83237369.7877217432337.6778363213390.26226313120017162111122WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:05FORECAST2024129-15635.25818.10426.681100.88916596406009.359.35TT3.25852.25837369.2068358698937.2489697391420.52279634596516163111122.5WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:06FORECAST2024129-15630.72215.72823.225100.735055437070.0358267910.0358267919.249.275826791TT-1.27837.72237369.1172985256837.1830515297680.33273040889298162111122WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:08FORECAST2024129-15631.11814.68422.901101.832074544560.2263780750.2263780759.089.306378075TT-0.88231.11837369.7538978417937.6528064881650.34839919617374162112124WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:07FORECAST2024129-15631.96422.53227.248101.972447091910.2263780750.2263780759.159.376378075TT-0.03600000000000139.96437369.8352279837537.7130032182980.38272239953756162112124WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:05FORECAST2024129-15623.46821.93822.703110.57381202389009.739.73TT-8.53226.46837374.7638307660341.4390653764760.11205360073279161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:45FORECAST2024129-15623.79222.17222.982108.84654305581009.919.91TT-8.20827.79237373.782723051740.6849572581630.11886844611852161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:05FORECAST2024129-15624.22423.07223.648111.90069783815009.799.79TT-7.77615.22437375.5145984956242.0203456200710.12840140949895161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:05FORECAST2024129-15626.85225.35826.105109.59840185848009.569.56TT-5.14841.85237374.2103161805441.0128526123450.19762480545006161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:07FORECAST2024129-15623.19822.29822.748110.52179404559009.479.47TT-8.80238.19837374.7343468035641.4163122992310.10659100496031161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:07FORECAST2024129-15622.7322.60422.667106.96071450185009.49.4TT-9.2731.7337372.7066250809639.8649669182330.097581239399209161111121.5WETL