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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 5, 2024

[ Sunday, February 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 6, 2024 ]

DAY 128 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/06/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.40°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.402
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 114

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.40 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 90 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 361.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.56 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-06 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024128-15731.8900227.3999229.6449789.97029250.399999999999980.459999999999989.399.85TT-0.10998113.8900236361.88032998746 32.5584791389690.4018829385636216 2112124WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024128-15731.8900227.3999229.6449789.97029250.399999999999980.459999999999989.399.85TT-0.10998113.8900236361.88032998746 32.5584791389690.4018829385636216 2112124WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2024128-15730.50625.73628.12190.11715783810.3334647470.3934647479.399.783464747TT-1.494112.50636361.968357863532.6195596379830.34616053095972162112124WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:06FORECAST2024128-15730.81225.71828.26589.9906770294440.2842521220.3442521229.399.734252122TT-1.188112.81236361.8925499918832.5669555856810.35824458988022162112124WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:03FORECAST2024128-15730.95625.77228.36489.8945426705330.2555119490.3155119499.399.705511949TT-1.044112.95636361.8349143561432.5269841482770.36398158502894162112124WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:01FORECAST2024128-15731.31626.00628.66189.8855790579450.2460631250.2960631259.399.686063125TT-0.684109.31636361.8295396651832.5232576930750.37845548585788162112124WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:01FORECAST2024128-15731.47825.53828.50889.6726182615980.1881890780.2381890789.399.628189078TT-0.522109.47836361.7018097892532.4347483137610.38502618279661162112124WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024128-15731.06425.7928.42789.4415945021560.1251969180.1751969189.399.565196918TT-0.936109.06436361.5631679352432.3387862533790.36830450136614162112124WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:01FORECAST2024128-15731.40626.52828.96789.5108187850650.1468504730.1968504739.399.586850473TT-0.594109.40636361.6047193113732.3675345021040.38210167175016162112124WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2024128-15732.07226.8729.47189.6224877831180.181102460.231102469.399.62110246TT0.072000000000003110.07236361.6717324245432.4139204207170.40938875015855162112124WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024128-15731.9126.61829.26489.6126055480670.1712599350.2212599359.399.611259935TT-0.09110.9136361.6658028134232.4098149277440.40270530667232162112124WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024128-15731.1926.1528.6788.8469092089280.2263780750.2263780759.399.616378075TT-0.81108.1936361.2059112477232.0920288023540.37336901301674162112124WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2024128-15730.12825.82627.97788.7738671502190.2011812110.2011812119.399.591181211TT-1.872106.12836361.1619940701832.0617468812940.33144769431064162112124WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2024128-15731.62226.49229.05788.7050713655220.1909449850.1909449859.399.580944985TT-0.378108.62236361.1206225503432.0332305948890.39089470566055162112124WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024128-15731.11826.11428.61688.5893678945240.1555118950.1555118959.399.545511895TT-0.882107.11836361.0510259866731.9852821698280.37047226501114162112124WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:08FORECAST2024128-15730.54224.11627.32988.5377540713910.0972441470.0972441479.399.487244147TT-1.458107.54236361.0199732613431.9638976074730.34757437034745162112124WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:07FORECAST2024128-15729.58823.75626.67288.6786855673860.1244095160.1244095169.399.514409516TT-2.412106.58836361.104753081932.0222948554390.31087710441185162112124WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024128-15729.15624.18826.67289.236729513910.0555118410.0555118419.399.445511841TT-2.844102.15636361.4401563915532.2537374713780.29483167709562162111122WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2024128-15728.65223.57626.11489.0779793787260.0165354420.0165354429.399.406535442TT-3.348100.65236361.3447905642632.1878638024930.27660953329105162111122WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024128-15728.63422.42425.52989.2770127734770.0574803460.0574803469.399.447480346TT-3.366101.63436361.4643496018932.2704573565640.27596907613231162111122WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024128-15726.45621.6524.05389.9247221174970.1854331710.1854331719.399.575433171TT-5.54496.45636361.8530094194632.5395313194250.20423133748832161112123WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024128-15727.8621.93824.89989.203349527584009.429.42TT-4.1499.8636361.4201072547132.2398841537390.2491373984948162111122WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024128-15728.18423.05425.61989.5466467833950.0539370370.0539370379.459.503937037TT-3.816102.18436361.6262219397432.3824155636510.26019815981507162111122WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024128-15728.41821.52424.97189.3009943422030.0574803460.0574803469.259.307480346TT-3.58294.41836361.4787512116732.280411916780.26834082381635162111122WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024128-15729.06622.9125.98889009.259.25TT-2.93498.06636361.2979319960332.1555159476470.29153748339967162111122WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:02FORECAST2024128-15728.25622.35225.30489.6330896452570.1212599080.1212599089.259.371259908TT-3.74495.25636361.6780936660832.4183249922980.26268998374237162112124WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:04FORECAST2024128-15728.52621.23624.88189.7612524668030.1078740740.1478740749.259.397874074TT-3.47494.52636361.7549793106832.4715800290290.27214167998143162112124WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024128-15728.45420.91224.68390.002228467760.0736220870.1036220879.279.373622087TT-3.54695.45436361.8994745030732.5717591865880.26960480748551162112124WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:07FORECAST2024128-15727.84220.40824.12590.1718851451810.0700787780.1100787789.319.420078778TT-4.15892.84236362.0011518188632.6423262842340.24853031882917161112123WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024128-15729.73223.21626.47493.1926857061820.1437008650.1437008659.269.403700865TT-2.26889.73236363.8042381495733.903894024450.31630855210508162112124WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2024128-15730.59623.03626.81693.7887171411140.3003938630.3003938639.229.520393863TT-1.40492.59636364.1583722360534.1539465682160.34969910315299162112124WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2024128-15728.3122.85625.58393.7431069153660.2751969990.2751969999.239.505196999TT-3.6990.3136364.1312917060834.1347986096340.26456682043029162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:04FORECAST2024128-15731.87425.32228.59891.974711701504009.159.15TT-0.12695.87436363.0789054804733.3940776564640.40122387573155162111122WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:07FORECAST2024128-15731.62224.7128.16691.9795641963010.145669370.145669379.269.40566937TT-0.37893.62236363.0817997117133.3961057050920.39089470566055162112124WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2024128-15729.7522.58626.16891.9270153161230.1216536090.1216536099.259.371653609TT-2.2587.7536363.0504554589133.3741447794970.31699030795299162112124WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:04FORECAST2024128-15729.26421.7425.50292.239449032157009.179.17TT-2.73680.26436363.2367538140733.5047580400390.29880718007008162111122WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024128-15729.64221.68625.66491.856784332691009.129.12TT-2.35882.64236363.0085576872633.34479879440.3129091605896162111122WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024128-15730.39823.68427.04193.0131795292270.1834646660.1834646669.059.233464666TT-1.60285.39836363.6974788596633.8286588955010.34193192075587162112124WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2024128-15730.23623.03626.63693.3853533988340.1157480940.1157480948.999.105748094TT-1.76483.23636363.9187709558333.984683034180.33562613300497162112124WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:06FORECAST2024128-15728.95821.30825.13393.4863681263660.1822835630.1822835639.179.352283563TT-3.04279.95836363.9787975520234.0270558581410.28760723865833162112124WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:07FORECAST2024128-15729.7523.30626.52891.7578861685940.0125984320.0125984329.179.182598432TT-2.2590.7536362.9495452312633.3034830562730.31699030795299162111122WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024128-15729.85817.18623.52297.0028407616610.0716535820.0716535829.59.571653582TT-2.14276.85836366.0588412825435.5087474903290.32109382389416162111122WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2024128-15731.94618.42825.18796.797681974484009.389.38TT-0.05399999999999869.94636365.9379966016135.4219498174220.40418813557727162111122WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:05FORECAST2024128-15729.91220.31825.11596.753628835882009.429.42TT-2.08868.91236365.9120397675335.4033176822480.32315383887041162111122WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024128-15731.20817.65424.43196.15777857965009.189.18TT-0.79272.20836365.5606695249635.151501917610.37409432646941162111122WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:10FORECAST2024128-15731.26219.32825.29595.774010237812009.139.13TT-0.73871.26236365.3340813288534.9895100454110.37627293223378162111122WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:08FORECAST2024128-15729.1221.8325.47596.620257663853009.079.07TT-2.8871.1236365.833437568935.346920999960.29351194315035162111122WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:05FORECAST2024128-15728.6723.10825.889102.151249279960.0248031630.0248031639.839.854803163TT-3.3356.6736369.0708812110537.7010515885650.27725071723185162111122WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024128-15727.80621.61424.71101.89044715633009.869.86TT-4.19458.80636368.9192460270637.5893469422740.24731852435381161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:05FORECAST2024128-15726.43818.5922.514100.91179796406009.919.91TT-5.56259.43836368.3493447510737.1707946577130.20368873043539161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:05FORECAST2024128-15725.26815.81820.543100.45765047853009.89.8TT-6.73249.26836368.0843973411236.9768937346960.17028434132856161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:08FORECAST2024128-15724.00815.74619.877100.08891033602009.649.64TT-7.99242.00836367.8690512255736.8196124835150.13847710290693161111121.5WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:07FORECAST2024128-15727.24819.16623.207100.07605354421009.719.71TT-4.75250.24836367.8615391544636.8141310892760.22894548206925161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:05FORECAST2024128-15725.7917.47421.632110.5738120238900.0410.2510.29TT-6.2144.7936373.9143002372141.3451295474730.18473110765118161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:39FORECAST2024128-15725.95216.9721.461108.846543055810010.4710.47TT-6.04845.95236372.9294572209840.5920822221820.18936481110835161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:05FORECAST2024128-15730.36218.2324.296111.900697838150010.3510.35TT-1.63833.36236374.6679263115841.9256024118370.3405267443815162111122WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:05FORECAST2024128-15737.9418.78828.364109.598401858480010.1210.12TT5.9456.9436373.3586782948540.9195144611110.65361917207396163111122.5WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2024128-15734.55617.22225.889110.521794045590010.0310.03TT2.55656.55636373.8847040225441.3224082547740.51401009034727163111122.5WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:07FORECAST2024128-15732.32420.69626.51106.96071450185009.969.96TT0.32451.32436371.8492622986739.7732627824530.41983706586974162111122WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:05FORECAST2024128-15722.5518.69820.624114.2186754418500.2310.7911.02TT-9.4538.5536375.9783800170742.9437525603230.10702927458748161112123WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:04FORECAST2024128-15725.23223.91824.575112.306969678120010.4510.45TT-6.76847.23236374.8981674742342.1036771269110.16931536056901161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:04FORECAST2024128-15725.17823.91824.548112.950500534090010.3910.39TT-6.82251.17836375.2623814696242.386073818610.16786852311035161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2024128-15726.85225.84426.348109.726458196790010.610.6TT-5.14857.85236373.4317014245640.9753379757170.21638460255006161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:08FORECAST2024128-15717.99617.617.798111.626500039790011.0211.02TT-14.00444.99636374.51239941141.8055083677530.041972906758959161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:09FORECAST2024128-15711.62411.15611.39111.832787930280010.7910.79TT-20.37623.62436374.6294174297941.895852191870.0079790713100804161111121.5WETL