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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 4, 2024

[ Saturday, February 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, February 5, 2024 ]

DAY 127 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/05/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.524
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 112

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 89 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 360.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -158

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-05 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024127-15835.2299224.5899429.9099389.0188508333330.00999999999999090.06999999999999110.9611.03TT3.22992112.2299235360.40850533503 32.0831509754830.5241616591597916 3111122.5WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024127-15835.2299224.5899429.9099389.0188508333330.00999999999999090.06999999999999110.9611.03TT3.22992112.2299235360.40850533503 32.0831509754830.5241616591597916 3111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:01FORECAST2024127-15831.38821.1126.2498900.0610.9611.02TT-0.612108.38835360.3971337048232.0753448997290.36309461317528162111122WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:05FORECAST2024127-15831.49621.0226.25889.01885083333300.0610.9611.02TT-0.504108.49635360.4085053350332.0831509754830.3674363068371162111122WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2024127-15831.71221.68626.69989.01885083333300.0610.9611.02TT-0.288108.71235360.4085053350332.0831509754830.37617019361516162111122WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2024127-15832.10821.0226.56487.999409600.0110.9610.97TT0.108107.10835359.7927525694431.661549804470.39234510983666162111122WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:01FORECAST2024127-15831.22621.34426.2858800.0110.9610.97TT-0.774106.22635359.7931096386131.6617936481980.35661507049852162111122WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:01FORECAST2024127-15831.58620.49826.0428800.0110.9610.97TT-0.414106.58635359.7931096386131.6617936481980.3710673968195162111122WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2024127-15830.99219.92225.4578800.0110.9610.97TT-1.008105.99235359.7931096386131.6617936481980.34732872173386162111122WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:07FORECAST2024127-15831.33422.5526.94288.1641937500.0110.9610.97TT-0.666107.33435359.8923919188331.7296225702830.36093030283136162111122WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024127-15830.6521.4726.0688.1641937500.0110.9610.97TT-1.35106.6535359.8923919188331.7296225702830.33392086715229162111122WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024127-15830.79421.70426.2498900.0110.9610.97TT-1.206102.79435360.3971337048232.0753448997290.33954169596879162111122WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2024127-15830.3821.5625.978900.0110.9610.97TT-1.62102.3835360.3971337048232.0753448997290.32348235716147162111122WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:02FORECAST2024127-15831.1922.22626.7088900.0110.9610.97TT-0.81103.1935360.3971337048232.0753448997290.35518069450917162111122WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024127-15829.46220.28224.87289.04614532018100.0110.9610.97TT-2.538100.46235360.4249695738432.0944542176930.28905532747294162111122WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024127-15830.52421.39825.96189.20334952758400.0410.9611TT-1.476101.52435360.5197741127132.1595714217820.32903294952402162111122WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024127-15830.54221.86626.20489.28619973139300.0710.9611.03TT-1.458103.54235360.5697230371532.1939003081880.32972946213864162111122WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2024127-15830.21821.43425.826890010.8310.83TT-1.78296.21835360.3971337048232.0753448997290.31728457930991162111122WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024127-15830.93822.71226.825890010.8310.83TT-1.06298.93835360.3971337048232.0753448997290.34519842210143162111122WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:01FORECAST2024127-15829.96621.52425.745890010.8310.83TT-2.03496.96635360.3971337048232.0753448997290.30774504249013162111122WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024127-15829.80421.03825.42189.19254039674900.0410.8310.87TT-2.19695.80435360.5132567034932.1550932120890.30167981752281162111122WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024127-15830.45220.82225.63789.60683378141900.0310.8510.88TT-1.54897.45235360.7629286186132.3268237792250.32625284629336162111122WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:07FORECAST2024127-15829.28220.96625.12489.77030172159500.0410.8910.93TT-2.71895.28235360.8613695242832.3946340218620.28251211162199162111122WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2024127-15831.3721.93826.65492.4626780182560010.8410.84TT-0.6390.3735362.4768602149133.5155812151190.36237268673426162111122WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2024127-15830.86622.69426.7892.3185965694950010.810.8TT-1.13491.86635362.3906873757533.4553996683840.34236564119147162111122WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2024127-15831.47822.22626.85292.3389145444820010.8110.81TT-0.52292.47835362.4028411458433.4638849792430.36671149646229162111122WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:04FORECAST2024127-15831.9123.23427.57291.9747117015040010.7310.73TT-0.0993.9135362.1848877634333.3118506346830.38423245832403162111122WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:07FORECAST2024127-15832.2722.85627.56391.2843866589960010.8410.84TT0.2792.2735361.7712162843633.0240635893970.3990178798375162111122WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2024127-15830.99222.44226.71791.3307633689860010.8310.83TT-1.00887.99235361.799029871533.0433815843220.34732872173386162111122WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:03FORECAST2024127-15830.43421.36225.89892.2394490321570010.7510.75TT-1.56681.43435362.3433370618133.4223497710550.32555931758001162111122WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024127-15830.12821.3825.75491.8567843326910010.710.7TT-1.87283.12835362.1142721400633.2626525997590.31386321960247162111122WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024127-15831.2822.42426.85292.0298390766080010.6310.63TT-0.7285.2835362.217891115533.3348542300280.35877043438916162111122WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2024127-15830.68622.78426.73592.7705961717780010.5710.57TT-1.31482.68635362.6609155181733.6442693408240.33532264874072162111122WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:06FORECAST2024127-15829.58821.1125.34992.4815766742710010.7510.75TT-2.41280.58835362.4881608632533.523476642390.29367753321407162111122WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:07FORECAST2024127-15831.13623.07227.10491.6925436187260010.7510.75TT-0.86491.13635362.0158885547133.1941576519750.35303297624838162111122WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024127-15828.74216.14222.44296.57290119351500.0111.0711.08TT-3.25876.74235364.9218847982535.2415651239730.26332059844883162111122WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2024127-15826.85217.45622.15496.7976819744840010.9610.96TT-5.14867.85235365.0548640996435.3364646383550.20177947492739161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:05FORECAST2024127-15827.71619.11223.41496.753628835882001111TT-4.28468.71635365.0288084419535.3178618463960.2287806388763161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024127-15826.83415.69221.26396.157778579650010.7610.76TT-5.16670.83435364.6761004523535.0664437205870.20123799277045161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:10FORECAST2024127-15827.6816.8822.2895.77401023781200.0110.710.71TT-4.3269.6835364.4486495830534.9047086963240.2276166441356161111121.5WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:07FORECAST2024127-15832.2713.3722.8296.62025766385300.0110.6410.65TT0.2772.2735364.9499069867435.2615540474580.3990178798375162111122WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:04FORECAST2024127-15830.03813.5521.794101.9802724422600.211.2111.41TT-1.96258.03835368.0999001300137.5389281012270.31045777635819162112124WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:04FORECAST2024127-15828.14814.0921.119101.8904471563300.2611.1811.44TT-3.85261.14835368.0474638248237.5005206638650.24300587536336161112123WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:04FORECAST2024127-15825.39415.36820.381100.9117979640600.2611.2311.49TT-6.60663.39435367.4753928040837.0826025954080.16077801265118161112123WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:05FORECAST2024127-15823.55812.5618.059100.4576504785300.1311.2511.38TT-8.44253.55835367.2094366786336.8889972422810.11745991177446161112123WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:08FORECAST2024127-15822.42414.70218.563100.0889103360200.1211.111.22TT-9.57648.42435366.9932706910736.7319565641230.095228837143597161112123WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:07FORECAST2024127-15826.76217.04221.902100.0760535442100.111.1911.29TT-5.23852.76235366.9857300197836.7264835674190.19908077356479161112123WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:05FORECAST2024127-15825.44817.7821.614110.5738120238900.0411.8311.87TT-6.55249.44835373.0615353509941.2508360832430.16219240568189161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:34FORECAST2024127-15825.8817.04221.461108.846543055810012.0512.05TT-6.1249.8835372.0729428117140.4988535896560.17379735229576161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024127-15821.75814.41418.086111.900697838150011.9311.93TT-10.24232.75835373.8180306525241.8304984944990.083703928383615161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024127-15825.66417.16821.416109.654686658480011.711.7TT-6.33648.66435372.5360191308740.8503204467940.16793051784111161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2024127-1582315.15219.076110.535766845590011.6111.61TT-95235373.0398070916841.2342411408090.1061011990505161111121.5WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:06FORECAST2024127-15825.37616.8821.128106.962485701850011.5411.54TT-6.62449.37635370.9896561772539.6819757943940.16030833874868161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:05FORECAST2024127-15827.10418.96823.036114.218675441850.2251969720.22519697212.3712.595196972TT-4.89646.10435375.1334735555642.8472484634170.20945126132437161112123WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:04FORECAST2024127-15830.57818.6824.629112.306969678120012.0312.03TT-1.42251.57835374.0491483960342.0083263670410.33112425704723162111122WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:04FORECAST2024127-15829.82220.5725.196112.950500534090011.9711.97TT-2.17855.82235374.4147490375742.2903333111410.30235107439321162111122WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:06FORECAST2024127-15834.35822.7328.544109.7264581967900.0612.1212.18TT2.35861.35835372.5770991740640.8815654976030.48698514716943162111122WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:08FORECAST2024127-15829.2117.07823.144111.6265000397900.1712.4312.6TT-2.7957.2135373.6619116253941.7105713929180.27991489179554162112124WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:09FORECAST2024127-15825.9889.5917.789111.8327879302800.1912.1812.37TT-6.01241.98835373.7793751585941.8007895948240.17677895088084161112123WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:05FORECAST2024127-15818.1949.5913.892108.8101081817300.1912.3612.55TT-13.80634.19435372.0520427744440.4830230235190.038962247916163161112123WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024127-15818.1949.5913.892109.4945124019600.1912.312.49TT-13.80633.19435372.4443128065940.7806084276410.038962247916163161112123WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:05FORECAST2024127-15821.90221.6521.776110.3064575802200.4411.3811.82TT-10.09853.90235372.9088001280341.1342487426120.086102806432329161112123WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:04FORECAST2024127-15819.18418.6818.932111.6188079836900.1811.3711.55TT-12.81652.18435373.6575304586341.7072081439230.048801004343032161112123WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:11FORECAST2024127-15821.90221.6521.776112.4525776467300.4411.3811.82TT-10.09856.90235374.1319230363742.0720991253690.086102806432329161112123WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:09FORECAST2024127-15821.90221.6521.776112.4525776467300.4411.3811.82TT-10.09856.90235374.1319230363742.0720991253690.086102806432329161112123WETL