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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 3, 2024

[ Friday, February 2, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 4, 2024 ]

DAY 126 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/04/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.298
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 108

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 89 in
SWE DAY: 34
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -159

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-04 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024126-15929.1099223.2199626.1649489.0188508333330.0499999999999550.2099999999999511.8412.05TT-2.89008108.1099234359.5043207927 32.0026615065840.2983855564821516 2112124WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024126-15929.1099223.2199626.1649489.0188508333330.0499999999999550.2099999999999511.8412.05TT-2.89008108.1099234359.5043207927 32.0026615065840.2983855564821516 2112124WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:01FORECAST2024126-15927.0519.52623.2888800.1611.8412TT-4.95106.0534358.8865821438531.5820192286590.2270296204904161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:07FORECAST2024126-15928.32820.96624.64788.1641937500.1611.8412TT-3.672107.32834358.9862424144631.6497326298130.27013393194383162112124WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024126-15928.18420.01224.09888.1641937500.1611.8412TT-3.816107.18434358.9862424144631.6497326298130.26508059422452162112124WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:01FORECAST2024126-15928.99419.4924.2428900.1611.8412TT-3.006102.99434359.492905868131.9948686222610.29411348467046162112124WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:01FORECAST2024126-15928.95819.424.1798900.1611.8412TT-3.042102.95834359.492905868131.9948686222610.29279252417987162112124WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:01FORECAST2024126-15929.24620.24624.7468900.1611.8412TT-2.754103.24634359.492905868131.9948686222610.30343628206064162112124WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024126-15927.66220.323.98189.04614532018100.1611.8412TT-4.338101.66234359.5208477146432.0139456512330.24717305092983161112123WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2024126-15928.2221.18224.70189.20334952758400.1911.8412.03TT-3.78102.2234359.6160131961232.078952920850.26633941890403162112124WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024126-15929.322.06425.68289.28619973139300.2211.8412.06TT-2.7104.334359.6661522875732.1132239097690.30545105964539162112124WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2024126-15928.20221.30824.7558900.0211.8411.86TT-3.79897.20234359.492905868131.9948686222610.26570962909735162111122WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024126-15928.5822.42425.5028900.0211.8411.86TT-3.4298.5834359.492905868131.9948686222610.27909152849561162111122WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:01FORECAST2024126-15928.422.11825.2598900.0211.8411.86TT-3.698.434359.492905868131.9948686222610.2726785247715162111122WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024126-15927.53620.7524.14389.1925403967490.0440945120.06409451211.8411.904094512TT-4.46496.53634359.6094709736332.0744822668690.24294941193135161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:06FORECAST2024126-15928.43620.7524.59389.6068337814190.0251968640.06519686411.8411.905196864TT-3.56498.43634359.8600934469432.2459235780660.2739552613107162111122WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:07FORECAST2024126-15927.7720.33624.05389.7703017215950.0397638010.11976380111.8411.959763801TT-4.2396.7734359.958909139732.3136198808470.25082428591561162112124WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2024126-15929.24621.8325.53892.46267801825600.1611.7111.87TT-2.75490.24634361.5805503735833.4327060068560.30343628206064162112124WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2024126-15929.10222.125.60192.31859656949500.1211.7111.83TT-2.89892.10234361.4940494546833.372623313880.298092779504162112124WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2024126-15928.97621.75825.36792.33891454448200.1311.7111.84TT-3.02491.97634361.5062494969633.3810946795960.29345266047189162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:03FORECAST2024126-15929.55221.39825.47591.97471170150400.0511.7111.76TT-2.44892.55234361.2874663160833.2293105557880.31493061416709162111122WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:06FORECAST2024126-15929.7522.42426.08791.28586265899600.0511.8211.87TT-2.2590.7534360.8731085198532.9426130216680.32246568034061162111122WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2024126-15929.2121.79425.50291.33076336898600.0411.8211.86TT-2.7988.2134360.9001393747332.9612852290680.30209640147487162111122WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:03FORECAST2024126-15929.7520.3925.0792.23944903215700.1311.6511.78TT-2.2581.7534361.4465188672533.3396277549060.32246568034061162112124WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024126-15929.82221.41625.61991.85678433269100.1211.6111.73TT-2.17883.82234361.2165818428533.180193655730.32522408935799162112124WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024126-15930.93822.38826.66392.02983907660800.0611.611.66TT-1.06284.93834361.3205953194733.2522762423150.3691240021165162111122WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2024126-15928.90421.14625.02592.77059617177800.1511.4511.6TT-3.09682.90434361.7653064175633.5611831506230.29081625976826162112124WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:06FORECAST2024126-15929.28219.97624.62992.48157667427100.2611.5211.78TT-2.71882.28234361.5918940460933.4405884740180.30477880864417162112124WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:06FORECAST2024126-15931.53221.5626.54691.69254361872600.2511.5311.78TT-0.46890.53234361.1178236886433.111811800070.39325125746747162112124WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024126-15930.03819.18424.61196.57290119351500.4611.6512.11TT-1.96279.03834364.034883725835.1559048570450.33355641505428162112124WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2024126-15926.94217.63622.28996.79768197448400.4911.511.99TT-5.05871.94234364.1683693098735.2506539976230.22357335907841161112123WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024126-15927.51819.70623.61296.75362883588200.4911.5412.03TT-4.48271.51834364.1422144523135.2320806605950.24234923346899161112123WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:04FORECAST2024126-15926.65417.04221.84896.1577785796500.4311.3611.79TT-5.34674.65434363.7881636225834.9810616875170.2145041752383161112123WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:09FORECAST2024126-15926.43818.82422.63195.77401023781200.5311.2111.74TT-5.56273.43834363.559846795734.8195844890690.20784465355974161113124.5WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:07FORECAST2024126-15925.77215.00820.3996.62173366385300.5411.1411.68TT-6.22870.77234364.0638892637635.1764841450690.18809281593278161113124.5WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:04FORECAST2024126-15922.60414.46818.536101.9802724422600.6511.7912.44TT-9.39658.60434367.2249984901937.4497053936380.11067240970357161113124.5WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2024126-15922.92813.44218.185101.8904471563300.6611.8112.47TT-9.07263.92834367.1723625479737.411356203460.11734311880311161113124.5WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:04FORECAST2024126-15924.33217.63620.984100.9117979640600.6911.8312.52TT-7.66869.33234366.5981135217636.9940747657120.14950756637537161113124.5WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:05FORECAST2024126-15921.45217.43819.445100.4576504785300.4411.9712.41TT-10.54861.45234366.3311448403936.8007661077770.089155644958235161112123WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:07FORECAST2024126-15921.77617.58219.679100.0889103360200.3711.8812.25TT-10.22456.77634366.1141558593836.6439669185590.094866577527499161112123WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:06FORECAST2024126-15922.0117.8719.94100.0760535442100.3411.9812.32TT-9.9957.0134366.1065864790336.6385023513620.099155153876858161112123WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:04FORECAST2024126-15924.1720.06622.118110.573812023890.0374015950.27740159512.6212.897401595TT-7.8355.1734372.2055237934341.1561836221870.14552255702602161112123WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:28FORECAST2024126-15923.64819.41821.533108.8465430558100.2712.8113.08TT-8.35254.64834371.2131674558240.4052700143620.13317000090696161112123WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024126-15920.78615.31418.05111.9006978381500.312.6612.96TT-11.21441.78634372.9648992459341.7350324947540.078223894548279161112123WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024126-15921.61413.58617.6109.6546866584800.3812.3512.73TT-10.38653.61434371.6780068126440.7562353748890.091978401561675161112123WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2024126-15923.97213.3718.671110.5357668455900.3412.312.64TT-8.02859.97234372.1837128096641.1396121028530.14074956847363161112123WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:06FORECAST2024126-15923.82817.40220.615106.9624857018500.0912.4812.57TT-8.17254.82834370.125756500939.5895709376140.13734557163637161111121.5WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:05FORECAST2024126-15925.19619.14822.172112.1426695757700.313.113.4TT-6.80450.19634373.1031037312241.8407780794230.1719773763431161112123WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:04FORECAST2024126-15926.88820.10223.495112.3069696781200.4112.6513.06TT-5.11251.88834373.1968969076541.9126125849770.22185649272892161112123WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2024126-15927.82421.79424.809112.9505005340900.412.613TT-4.17656.82434373.5638894746142.1942282976210.25266053840009162112124WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024126-15930.05623.28826.672109.7393485967900.0813.1313.21TT-1.94458.05634371.7266486592240.793040279930.33425456610283162111122WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024126-15930.21824.36827.293111.6265000397900.2913.3413.63TT-1.78259.21834372.8081858378941.6152729712660.34056347876068162112124WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:08FORECAST2024126-15926.58217.56422.073111.8327879302800.213.213.4TT-5.41846.58234372.9260965816741.7053650726860.21227069383619161112123WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:04FORECAST2024126-15926.54617.56422.055108.8101081817300.213.3813.58TT-5.45446.54634371.1921878473140.3894621158780.21115905969594161112123WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024126-15926.58217.56422.073109.4945124019600.213.3213.52TT-5.41845.58234371.5859513413640.6866225575420.21227069383619161112123WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024126-15930.63220.89425.763110.306457580220.0885827250.49858272512.3512.848582725TT-1.36862.63234372.0522070724841.0397609970670.35688650264708162113126WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:04FORECAST2024126-15929.49817.40223.45111.618807983690.0464567180.32645671812.2512.576456718TT-2.50264.49834372.8037879910241.6119144273630.31288871241794162112124WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:11FORECAST2024126-15930.63220.89425.763112.452577646730.0885827250.49858272512.3512.848582725TT-1.36865.63234373.2799866900241.9762966872310.35688650264708162113126WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:09FORECAST2024126-15930.63220.89425.763112.452577646730.0885827250.49858272512.3512.848582725TT-1.36865.63234373.2799866900241.9762966872310.35688650264708162113126WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024126-15925.89820.89423.396111.401918608720.0421260070.45212600712.4912.942126007TT-6.10259.89834372.6797485466641.5172390147130.19173825245666161112123WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:04FORECAST2024126-15925.89820.89423.396112.064499011110.0421260070.45212600712.4912.942126007TT-6.10256.89834373.05846514941.8066099987770.19173825245666161112123WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:05FORECAST2024126-15924.31420.3922.352117.075135477370.0421260070.37212600712.412.772126007TT-7.68657.31434375.9018945336244.0087652287230.14906123492548161112123WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:06FORECAST2024126-15924.45823.84624.152117.0093218679900.212.9613.16TT-7.54252.45834375.8647807702743.9796831119910.15265677423264161112123WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2024126-15924.45823.84624.152115.0516451268600.2113.1613.37TT-7.54254.45834374.7579613332443.1165199757780.15265677423264161112123WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:08FORECAST2024126-15922.92822.69422.811123.5107396712900.7713.8614.63TT-9.07247.92834379.5012734042846.8724829843610.11734311880311161113124.5WETL