MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 29, 2024

[ Wednesday, February 28, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, March 1, 2024 ]

DAY 152 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/01/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.51°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.359
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 157 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 415.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 65.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -133

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-03-01 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024152-13330.5099619.6399425.07495156.5301987512.955.778.72TT-1.49004-8.4900460415.96436199665 65.1109842562520.3590178045911816 21151210WETL
2024-03-01 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024152-13330.5099619.6399425.07495156.5301987512.955.778.72TT-1.49004-8.4900460415.96436199665 65.1109842562520.3590178045911816 21151210WETL
2024-02-29 11:00:02FORECAST2024152-13328.16617.99623.081145.853111047651.4177173013.3677173015.779.137717301TT-3.834-10.83460410.9627890870459.9402013131660.281577529467731621151210WETL
2024-02-29 07:00:04FORECAST2024152-13328.14817.7822.964146.247896212451.4110243843.3610243845.779.131024384TT-3.852-10.85260411.1501472297960.1298440597960.281015095988031621151210WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:04FORECAST2024152-13329.28218.10423.693146.229981578831.3984259523.3484259525.779.118425952TT-2.718-9.71860411.1416493262760.121235807270.317462772695321621151210WETL
2024-02-28 23:00:01FORECAST2024152-13328.38217.85223.117136.101839364861.4102369824.8102369825.7710.580236982TT-3.618-12.61860406.2748691518155.294756979280.288368686659611621151210WETL
2024-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2024152-13329.26416.17822.721135.70663160231.2866148684.6866148685.7710.456614868TT-2.736-11.73660406.0824139544455.1080765506890.316868866644731621151210WETL
2024-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2024152-13326.97817.52822.253135.743715996091.2893707754.6893707755.7710.459370775TT-5.022-14.02260406.100481238355.1255883910860.24566546160117161115127.5WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2024152-13328.45419.25623.855144.894489190331.1665360634.5665360635.7710.336536063TT-3.546-12.54660410.5070611616759.4802109360440.290649425098771621151210WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:05FORECAST2024152-13328.74219.8524.296144.770140460641.1685045684.5385045685.7710.308504568TT-3.258-12.25860410.4478645459759.420595002090.299855602522971621151210WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:07FORECAST2024152-13327.98618.80623.396145.077019458981.1366147874.5266147875.7710.296614787TT-4.014-12.01460410.5939214287559.5677423288580.275977742588361621151210WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:03FORECAST2024152-13328.1318.78823.459142.238189702251.1767722894.9167722895.7710.686772289TT-3.87-14.8760409.2384460110458.209335717170.280453205284511621151210WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:03FORECAST2024152-13328.29218.98623.639141.630858272421.2854337654.7154337655.7710.485433765TT-3.708-14.70860408.9471879863157.9195412225930.285529674030861621151210WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:03FORECAST2024152-13327.75218.19422.973142.016531601121.3413393074.7213393075.7710.491339307TT-4.248-16.24860409.1321974652658.1035356503620.268780673639841621151210WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024152-13327.4118.0522.73145.18481104671.5448827244.8648827245.7710.634882724TT-4.59-16.5960410.6451970588259.6194453422180.258434046610811621151210WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:08FORECAST2024152-13327.73417.92422.829144.462991280821.4629929164.6429929165.7710.412992916TT-4.266-16.26660410.3015650300159.2733914114350.268230977934981621151210WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:07FORECAST2024152-13328.32816.64622.487144.725874367581.4854338734.6454338735.7710.415433873TT-3.672-15.67260410.4267870159259.3993756147540.286663683453381621151210WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2024152-13325.66417.9621.812132.007245036081.2460636654.4560636655.9310.386063665TT-6.336-19.33660404.2715164836653.3667691375670.20899573883274161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024152-13325.77218.0521.911132.443180336851.2259849144.5459849145.9310.475984914TT-6.228-21.22860404.4857979350953.5713854796110.21188268592828161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:04FORECAST2024152-13328.41818.62623.522132.226637898881.2515754794.7515754795.9310.681575479TT-3.582-16.58260404.3793874214953.4697268343540.289508002246881621151210WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2024152-13325.71818.522.109136.934611829021.0476383614.8476383615.9310.777638361TT-6.282-19.28260406.6797743009655.6885370326150.21043631197868161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:06FORECAST2024152-13326.22218.73422.478136.257758557551.1665360634.7365360635.9710.706536063TT-5.778-19.77860406.3507443368955.3684416115370.22415958394537161115127.5WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:07FORECAST2024152-13327.37418.91423.144135.974862811391.1149612324.7049612325.9410.644961232TT-4.626-17.62660406.2130561617455.2347645837880.25735703919121621151210WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:03FORECAST2024152-13328.38219.92224.152130.661315456211.1448825084.5148825085.8110.324882508TT-3.618-16.61860403.6084335306852.7360088543380.288368686659611621151210WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:04FORECAST2024152-13326.54617.99622.271131.726928866131.1814967014.6514967015.7310.381496701TT-5.454-20.45460404.1336033171653.2352784165730.23324312110703161115127.5WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2024152-13325.62817.67221.65132.20141695521.1397643954.6897643955.7310.419764395TT-6.372-22.37260404.3669898623253.4578890297060.20803858559632161115127.5WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:04FORECAST2024152-13325.8817.7821.83139.159333089491.4090558794.8590558795.710.559055879TT-6.12-22.1260407.7572727957756.7432301446480.2147927844953161115127.5WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:06FORECAST2024152-13326.11419.07622.595138.173245755241.4688984314.9488984315.6610.608898431TT-5.886-16.88660407.2804326525156.2752593121970.22117690358251161115127.5WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:09FORECAST2024152-13325.64617.63621.641136.634768629091.204725064.434725065.7110.14472506TT-6.354-19.35460406.5340851751755.5466906677480.20851683902372161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024152-13323.28814.97219.13135.870382405960.7484256013.6384256015.759.388425601TT-8.712-24.71260406.16217948655.1854106456020.15148881550061161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:04FORECAST2024152-13323.19815.47619.337135.282243630510.8291343063.3891343065.799.179134306TT-8.802-25.80260405.875533577854.9077528171350.14953947353467161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024152-13322.69415.74619.22135.191655621690.8251972963.3851972965.779.155197296TT-9.306-26.30660405.8313449045254.8650114208190.13893263015215161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:05FORECAST2024152-13323.91815.4419.679134.022146581640.7507878073.2907878075.78.990787807TT-8.082-24.08260405.2599465278854.3138079572260.16560414845113161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:10FORECAST2024152-13324.69217.9621.326136.654297052660.7771657743.9071657745.799.697165774TT-7.308-20.30860406.5435771093555.5559267511510.18406998671797161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:06FORECAST2024152-13327.44617.58222.514137.159415837711.0255911054.0855911055.679.755591105TT-4.554-16.55460406.7889302999755.7949320491920.259513381003011621151210WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:05FORECAST2024152-13328.65219.45424.053140.676659789821.2826778583.8626778585.599.452677858TT-3.348-19.34860408.4886744135757.4648222784720.296964522570931621151210WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:04FORECAST2024152-13328.95820.51624.737140.164902767571.3062999183.8662999185.649.506299918TT-3.042-12.04260408.2423055824857.2212430675750.30684557658091621151210WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024152-13329.69621.66825.682146.023822128131.6192922135.0792922135.610.679292213TT-2.304-13.30460411.0438286394260.0221909201060.331249675551021621151210WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:07FORECAST2024152-13332.55821.36226.96147.334416046241.7066938355.1366938355.6510.786693835TT0.558-11.44260411.6648215584760.6523960910980.431945671463941621151210WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:06FORECAST2024152-13330.9221.5626.24147.882351852621.7759852115.5259852115.4811.005985211TT-1.08-10.0860411.9238353781160.9162655598650.373304982697731621151210WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:14FORECAST2024152-13330.48820.60625.547150.680666706962.0082688015.7082688015.4611.168268801TT-1.512-14.51260413.2410152148662.2674316832350.358257971667961621151210WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024152-13326.16818.75222.46151.060548462131.9625994855.2425994855.4210.662599485TT-5.832-20.83260413.4191066721462.4513169986180.22266540211681161115127.5WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:04FORECAST2024152-13328.72420.01224.368152.860846961382.2110248165.6110248165.5511.161024816TT-3.276-18.27660414.2607673656463.3242517623820.29927636890311621151210WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:04FORECAST2024152-13330.30825.17827.743149.600333331042.1759854275.1259854275.6610.785985427TT-1.692-15.69260412.7336064649461.7450851040770.352051208926341621151210WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:04FORECAST2024152-13331.74828.07629.912141.532036405511.4007881583.8107881585.629.430788158TT-0.252-17.25260408.8997534524657.8724147918370.40267312097391621151210WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024152-13331.53227.75229.642144.159924813441.61417414.27417415.159.4241741TT-0.468-23.46860410.1570982534659.1282164459180.394951292933061621151210WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:09FORECAST2024152-13331.2828.1329.705138.884960680011.0791344413.2391344415.248.479134441TT-0.72-24.7260407.6247150187456.6129425175790.385994553486471621151210WETL
2024-02-21 23:00:05FORECAST2024152-13330.95626.45628.706138.264496369780.8224413893.0324413895.948.972441389TT-1.044-22.04460407.324608680656.3185318782410.374568031757631621151210WETL
2024-02-21 19:00:04FORECAST2024152-13330.63226.58228.607139.496568734151.0133863743.3833863746.019.393386374TT-1.368-20.36860407.9200752384556.9034508135380.363250572326781621151210WETL
2024-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024152-13330.9224.87227.896138.062879896531.3763786963.1863786965.748.926378696TT-1.08-20.0860407.2269889156656.222930861290.373304982697731621151210WETL
2024-02-21 11:00:05FORECAST2024152-13330.05623.59426.825139.525135886351.3370085962.8170085965.588.397008596TT-1.944-25.94460407.9338597893256.9170272197490.343427837297921621151210WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:09FORECAST2024152-13329.94823.19826.573144.633746350161.6755914563.3255914565.789.105591456TT-2.052-29.05260410.3829121826659.3552180270680.339756582417081621151210WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:06FORECAST2024152-13326.58220.28223.432148.961383945541.1405517973.1705517976.19.270551797TT-5.418-40.41860412.4328501159461.4365681378720.23426484121135161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:05FORECAST2024152-13327.2321.90224.566148.996302332180.988189513.108189515.78.80818951TT-4.77-34.7760412.4492989691561.4534204459040.253072416114371621151210WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:05FORECAST2024152-13327.21222.8225.016142.340798715980.4744097052.5344097055.357.884409705TT-4.788-30.78860409.2876098790558.2583252947380.252539485363811621151210WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:05FORECAST2024152-13333.40423.91828.661141.260975367560.6578743712.4278743715.658.077874371TT1.404-17.59660408.7695829150957.7431899831780.462920880435091621151210WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:05FORECAST2024152-13338.69625.89832.297137.525355028080.5055120842.4255120845.087.505512084TT6.696-10.30460406.9664827474755.9682100243760.654315092793411631151212.5WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:09FORECAST2024152-13331.5524.15227.851136.948380775240.4893703432.3493703435.17.449370343TT-0.45-14.4560406.6864617525755.6950524202250.395593250869681621151210WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:09FORECAST2024152-13331.6424.8928.265156.934128856010.480315224.680315224.989.66031522TT-0.36-15.3660416.1509290481565.308283522790.398807257089831621151210WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:06FORECAST2024152-13329.35428.09428.724155.578038675010.338582864.498582864.519.00858286TT-2.646-12.64660415.5238205887964.6463810299530.319843082946491621151210WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:06FORECAST2024152-13327.03222.87424.953153.791334808140.3039371724.0539371724.688.733937172TT-4.968-19.96860414.6942750277263.7763860938070.24724281732522161115127.5WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:05FORECAST2024152-13324.92622.58623.756133.6517194077401.724.76.42TT-7.074-21.07460405.0786090915354.1394526003770.18989526292988161115127.5WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:05FORECAST2024152-13321.61417.83419.724134.7076903093601.724.756.47TT-10.386-18.38660405.5950951273754.6367784654140.11795766413459161115127.5WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:08FORECAST2024152-13333.40431.53232.468138.0606794908701.854.766.61TT1.404-10.59660407.2259232354356.2218876681810.462920880435091621151210WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:08FORECAST2024152-13333.54833.2633.404139.5262847567602.334.586.91TT1.548-2.45260407.9344141345756.9175732286230.468221037374191621151210WETL