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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 28, 2024

[ Tuesday, February 27, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 29, 2024 ]

DAY 151 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/29/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.71°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.378
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.50 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 140 in
SWE DAY: 59
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 407.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-29 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024151-13431.8500627.7100629.78006140.386858333331.52.55.848.34TT-0.14994-4.1499459407.62753488507 57.2255489926770.377557769144616 21151210WETL
2024-02-29 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024151-13431.8500627.7100629.78006140.386858333331.52.55.848.34TT-0.14994-4.1499459407.62753488507 57.2255489926770.377557769144616 21151210WETL
2024-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2024151-13430.43425.01627.725139.887219056762.9535449023.9535449025.849.793544902TT-1.566-5.56659407.3859099004156.9880820188770.318141559922261621151210WETL
2024-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2024151-13429.78627.15828.472139.814383662932.9169307093.9169307095.849.756930709TT-2.214-6.21459407.3506611712656.9534816263460.29233368605941621151210WETL
2024-02-28 03:00:06FORECAST2024151-13430.68626.11428.4140.106200669252.9389779653.9389779655.849.778977965TT-1.314-5.31459407.4918469058357.0921344736720.328430908838751621151210WETL
2024-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2024151-13430.88426.45628.67136.79925174663.1043323854.2943323855.8410.134332385TT-1.116-8.11659405.8857491257455.5248667750080.336608134902491621151210WETL
2024-02-27 19:00:02FORECAST2024151-13430.75825.6128.184135.77553983222.7850408743.9750408745.849.815040874TT-1.242-8.24259405.3858185586955.0414783551250.331395211839961621151210WETL
2024-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2024151-13430.05625.23227.644135.79536799752.7437022693.9337022695.849.773702269TT-1.944-8.94459405.3955140101955.050833009550.302968951137241621151210WETL
2024-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024151-13430.21824.8927.554138.195022129182.6751982953.8651982955.849.705198295TT-1.782-8.78259406.5652836749556.1852983744140.309431995777911621151210WETL
2024-02-27 07:00:07FORECAST2024151-13429.91225.30427.608137.820767898092.5484265733.7284265735.849.568426573TT-2.088-9.08859406.3833133166856.0080603022740.29727523728651621151210WETL
2024-02-27 03:00:07FORECAST2024151-13429.94825.0727.509137.962727266842.5460643673.7060643675.849.546064367TT-2.052-9.05259406.4523573414956.0752757228680.298694081385251621151210WETL
2024-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.91225.59227.752125.629755960832.6236234643.9236234645.849.763623464TT-2.088-10.08859400.360194301750.2971535065540.29727523728651621151210WETL
2024-02-26 19:00:02FORECAST2024151-13429.44425.26827.356126.214428663852.7397652594.0297652595.849.869765259TT-2.556-11.55659400.6533367551550.5682319908150.279116988435331621151210WETL
2024-02-26 15:00:03FORECAST2024151-13430.4726.25828.364126.263801620522.9665370354.2065370355.8410.046537035TT-1.53-9.5359400.678071377650.5911365181120.319603147878251621151210WETL
2024-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.78625.68227.734131.543527498153.2287419014.5087419015.8410.348741901TT-2.214-10.21459403.3052614427353.0521967487380.29233368605941621151210WETL
2024-02-26 07:00:05FORECAST2024151-13429.94825.44827.698130.416387483083.0547260594.3247260595.8410.164726059TT-2.052-11.05259402.7473509808952.5248545833060.298694081385251621151210WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:07FORECAST2024151-13430.61426.27628.445130.48928157623.0972457674.3072457675.8410.147245767TT-1.386-10.38659402.7834803435352.5589269807890.325477358971981621151210WETL
2024-02-25 23:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.96626.58228.274124.839921564512.8925212474.0825212475.729.802521247TT-2.034-10.03459399.9634962287249.9314114978620.299404654901151621151210WETL
2024-02-25 19:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.40825.64627.527125.369177261853.0063008364.0963008365.729.816300836TT-2.592-11.59259400.2294053733150.1764312676530.277742817440711621151210WETL
2024-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.24625.08827.167125.903592465733.0338599064.1838599065.729.903859906TT-2.754-12.75459400.4975442989650.4240796009430.271600202967631621151210WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:04FORECAST2024151-13429.08424.81826.951131.566173566193.0437024314.0537024315.729.773702431TT-2.916-12.91659403.3164544072653.0628026426470.265525911559811621151210WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:06FORECAST2024151-13430.59625.89828.247130.320087656693.1303166514.0403166515.729.760316651TT-1.404-8.40459402.6996105002352.4798485397040.324740670222111621151210WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:08FORECAST2024151-13430.30825.35827.833129.909879753152.8846472273.8446472275.729.564647227TT-1.692-9.69259402.4961197412152.2882225166910.313048365908791621151210WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024151-13428.56223.55826.06131.070948697852.5440958623.5640958625.79.264095862TT-3.438-13.43859403.0715393724852.8309690586540.24643261496839161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:04FORECAST2024151-13428.27423.41425.844129.852660298472.3007886443.2807886445.698.970788644TT-3.726-13.72659402.4677181825352.2615038902550.23622165168563161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:03FORECAST2024151-13427.9523.1825.565129.691553064312.2964579333.2664579335.688.946457933TT-4.05-14.0559402.3877285091252.186289444370.22501794605707161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:04FORECAST2024151-13428.27424.00826.141129.355632437872.2771665843.1971665845.668.857166584TT-3.726-12.72659402.2208387448952.0295309755360.23622165168563161115127.5WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:09FORECAST2024151-13429.3924.85427.122131.905253992852.748032983.828032985.719.53803298TT-2.61-9.6159403.4839701172853.2216555603640.27705697165921621151210WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:06FORECAST2024151-13429.78625.50227.644131.035020669872.6027573113.7427573115.619.352757311TT-2.214-9.21459403.0537590631452.8141576499070.29233368605941621151210WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:04FORECAST2024151-13429.28226.65427.968133.006886377932.0291349543.2391349545.558.789134954TT-2.718-12.71859404.0272142111453.7384017741710.272959369918441621151210WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:04FORECAST2024151-13432.16225.84429.003132.596262259122.1066940513.3366940515.488.816694051TT0.162-5.83859403.8249022670653.5456726477680.391106802356121621151210WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024151-13430.93826.00628.472137.055747091142.4539383334.1639383335.529.683938333TT-1.062-8.06259406.0108053184255.6461142499910.338851960391511621151210WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:06FORECAST2024151-13430.54224.04427.293138.307622389592.2232295474.2432295475.469.703229547TT-1.458-9.45859406.61999847156.2386452045830.322534720061181621151210WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:06FORECAST2024151-13431.76623.91827.842138.383400990412.767718034.537718035.319.84771803TT-0.234-6.23459406.6568120524356.2745526877340.373931492488031621151210WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:13FORECAST2024151-13429.58824.06226.825139.548468368572.8389779114.5489779115.239.778977911TT-2.412-10.41259407.2219159391356.8271946554210.28464645356881621151210WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024151-13430.48825.08827.788137.981315312182.5066942673.9866942675.339.316694267TT-1.512-11.51259406.4613960672656.0840780529860.320334994977191621151210WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:03FORECAST2024151-13430.86625.75428.31138.933784436632.5755919424.0255919425.549.565591942TT-1.134-12.13459406.9239782587356.5354882774940.335861478255451621151210WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2024151-13431.71225.71828.715136.461614245222.5366155433.5666155435.669.226615543TT-0.288-11.28859405.7210072163655.365343577940.371607825835821621151210WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:04FORECAST2024151-13431.5523.19827.374133.803102132312.0460640973.0560640975.598.646064097TT-0.45-14.4559404.418904001954.1125039164030.36466513845151621151210WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024151-13429.55221.34425.448135.107586719972.2354342783.2754342785.158.425434278TT-2.448-20.44859405.0589215957854.7265333761980.283259200761281621151210WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2024151-13429.320.01224.656132.707387591041.956693972.736693975.288.01669397TT-2.7-20.759403.8796738523453.5978164180640.273640214241261621151210WETL
2024-02-21 23:00:05FORECAST2024151-13430.77622.47826.627132.905226733111.9791349272.8991349275.878.769134927TT-1.224-18.22459403.9771467894353.6906742890430.332137949079591621151210WETL
2024-02-21 19:00:04FORECAST2024151-13430.88424.09827.491132.839952243092.1283476063.0383476065.968.998347606TT-1.116-16.11659403.9449922569653.6600334802510.336608134902491621151210WETL
2024-02-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024151-13429.01222.40625.709128.969212129991.2141738842.4041738845.778.174173884TT-2.988-15.98859402.0286838791751.8493226135530.262848492218551621151210WETL
2024-02-21 11:00:05FORECAST2024151-13426.07819.97623.027130.280811035790.783464992.193464995.497.68346499TT-5.922-20.92259402.6801358271152.4614946835590.16645085077676161115127.5WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:08FORECAST2024151-13425.71816.7921.254133.079043391680.9240162472.3840162475.678.054016247TT-6.282-24.28259404.0627437295653.7722834057460.15642858695176161115127.5WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:06FORECAST2024151-13424.69218.51821.605139.48260759111.2188982962.8788982965.878.748898296TT-7.308-32.30859407.1900154255156.7959251366110.13008175299909161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:05FORECAST2024151-13425.37621.45223.414140.103299009431.188977022.908977025.538.43897702TT-6.624-26.62459407.4904435514457.0907554563720.14728236015952161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:04FORECAST2024151-13425.4321.09223.261138.087965416160.8318902132.8218902135.218.031890213TT-6.57-22.5759406.5132480892456.1345873433590.14870223315079161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:05FORECAST2024151-13427.3223.4525.385135.923394919120.7862208972.6762208975.368.036220897TT-4.68-15.6859405.4581040549855.1112420006240.20411701190573161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:05FORECAST2024151-13428.34624.2626.303133.870076638230.9830713972.7830713974.847.623071397TT-3.654-13.65459404.4518152865254.1439955088760.23875237224369161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:09FORECAST2024151-13427.73423.39625.565132.782477249950.7181106242.6881106244.897.578110624TT-4.266-11.26659403.9166753807153.6330567596140.21771895306832161115127.5WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:09FORECAST2024151-13426.88822.22624.557152.978258872162.4515761274.9815761274.829.801576127TT-5.112-12.11259413.6165770759163.2743438017370.1904764780454161115127.5WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:05FORECAST2024151-13429.98422.49626.24152.458210281452.4555131374.7955131374.499.285513137TT-2.016-7.01659413.3729919433463.0221065303680.300115993206081621151210WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:06FORECAST2024151-13429.55222.62226.087150.840239040512.1854342514.4354342514.619.045434251TT-2.448-12.44859412.613090693762.238657231480.283259200761281621151210WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:05FORECAST2024151-13430.43418.78824.611133.651719407740.5665357392.5865357394.457.036535739TT-1.566-10.56659404.3444938705454.0413368388480.318141559922261621151210WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:04FORECAST2024151-13430.18218.524.341134.707690309360.803150042.513150044.587.09315004TT-1.818-4.81859404.8629462870854.5381523861750.307990568836011621151210WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:07FORECAST2024151-13436.33817.88827.113138.079178690870.8157484722.7257484724.57.225748472TT4.338-8.66259406.5089766180256.1304256218840.578614002257491631151212.5WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:08FORECAST2024151-13435.7821.75828.769139.541635156760.9106304132.9706304134.567.530630413TT3.78-1.2259407.2186064333356.8239502079650.553657689621881631151212.5WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:04FORECAST2024151-13429.98424.63827.311136.77807131190.4417325222.4217325224.026.441732522TT-2.016-13.01659405.875418806855.5148569773020.300115993206081621151210WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:03FORECAST2024151-13427.08623.41425.25134.956580547630.326771832.106771834.016.11677183TT-4.914-17.91459404.9849421185454.6553829615970.19665768027284161115127.5WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:05FORECAST2024151-13427.08623.41425.25130.88601618880.326771831.746771834.286.02677183TT-4.914-8.91459402.9800013803752.7444469844320.19665768027284161115127.5WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:05FORECAST2024151-13431.92830.77631.352124.842557336960.4346459041.2046459044.235.434645904TF-0.071999999999999-0.07199999999999959399.9648213818749.9326311461340.3809297092527162114128WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:08FORECAST2024151-13415.27813.94614.612121.1852089778800.734.264.99TF-16.722-16.72259398.1175027133548.2459527640680.013896005751423161113124.5WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:08FORECAST2024151-13414.43214.25214.342121.4084498933300.744.134.87TF-17.568-19.56859398.2307536559348.3485785012180.01080911183958161113124.5WETL