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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 25, 2024

[ Saturday, February 24, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, February 26, 2024 ]

DAY 148 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/26/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.381
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 6

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.86 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.74 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 113 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 391.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.04 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-26 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024148-13730.0500619.6199624.83501112.534223751.861.94.746.64TT-1.949946.0500656391.33755501954 44.0388679783470.3809829615836816 21151210WETL
2024-02-26 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024148-13730.0500619.6199624.83501112.534223751.861.94.746.64TT-1.949946.0500656391.33755501954 44.0388679783470.3809829615836816 21151210WETL
2024-02-25 11:00:01FORECAST2024148-13729.316.3422.82113.163368949141.7409458221.7809458224.746.520945822TT-2.75.356391.667384148444.3224006977310.352105039991441621151210WETL
2024-02-25 07:00:05FORECAST2024148-13729.51618.62624.071112.597091435571.736221411.776221414.746.51622141TT-2.4845.51656391.3705370873344.0671841496120.360342637316231621151210WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:07FORECAST2024148-13730.36218.46424.413112.54939929721.7358277091.7758277094.746.515827709TT-1.6386.36256391.3455169993544.0457028559310.393201711427211621151210WETL
2024-02-24 23:00:01FORECAST2024148-13729.44418.523.972113.176418381931.6740166521.7640166524.746.504016652TT-2.5566.44456391.6742197305144.3282853616370.357589340807871621151210WETL
2024-02-24 19:00:02FORECAST2024148-13729.24618.33823.792113.202950642061.6566938081.7466938084.746.486693808TT-2.7546.24656391.6881172177844.3402506004860.350056255224781621151210WETL
2024-02-24 15:00:01FORECAST2024148-13729.40818.71624.062113.149316035061.6531504991.7431504994.746.483150499TT-2.5926.40856391.6600226671744.3160636830650.356215454941461621151210WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2024148-13729.31818.84224.08113.317581681051.6283473361.7183473364.746.458347336TT-2.6826.31856391.7481497149744.3919529537280.352788926380161621151210WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:08FORECAST2024148-13729.8419.52624.683113.225148466191.6854339811.7654339814.746.505433981TT-2.166.8456391.6997436259844.350261626220.372820391379181621151210WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2024148-13730.43421.70426.069112.908752463721.5996071631.6696071634.746.409607163TT-1.5667.43456391.5339650417444.2076115400360.396037457944611621151210WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2024148-13730.00221.41625.709116.261484651591.5779536081.6079536084.746.347953608TT-1.9983.00256393.2839040003645.7237705686540.379110607223061621151210WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2024148-13730.61423.03626.825115.889895183341.5019693151.5419693154.746.281969315TT-1.3864.61456393.0906885395145.5552386923890.403150619817831621151210WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2024148-13730.86623.19827.032115.940996046411.5523630431.5823630434.746.322363043TT-1.1344.86656393.1172702831245.578407879670.413162607610311621151210WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:04FORECAST2024148-13730.4721.36225.916115.60483977871.4909456871.5209456874.746.260945687TT-1.534.4756392.9423445595245.426036785070.397457406739771621151210WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:05FORECAST2024148-13731.26221.75826.51115.131138041061.3720479851.3720479854.746.112047985TT-0.7385.26256392.695590596145.2114902490350.42900800592988162114128WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:10FORECAST2024148-13731.47821.14626.312114.990919865391.2901581771.2901581774.746.030158177TF-0.5225.47856392.6224931745645.1480216499860.43770114149432162114128WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:03FORECAST2024148-13729.85819.47224.665115.807343454391.393701541.393701544.746.13370154TT-2.142-0.14256393.0477393354245.5178145431880.37351766740261162114128WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2024148-13729.6621.0225.34116.672430296781.5696858871.5996858874.746.339685887TT-2.34-0.3456393.4973712499345.9102946191230.365870873845511621151210WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:03FORECAST2024148-13729.7521.00225.376117.286607451451.610237091.720237094.746.46023709TT-2.25-0.2556393.8159927982446.189341755430.369340297715691621151210WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:03FORECAST2024148-13729.33620.01224.674116.757723161531.4889771821.6489771824.746.388977182TT-2.664-0.66456393.5416490313545.9490269101340.353473288532761621151210WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024148-13728.88619.32824.107115.59059312441.1492132191.2092132194.745.949213219TF-3.114-3.11456392.9349277247445.4195813549970.33651146728754162114128WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:07FORECAST2024148-13729.51621.61425.565116.010904517731.2523628811.3423628814.746.082362881TT-2.484-2.48456393.1536298157745.6101082093570.36034263731623162114128WETL
2024-02-21 23:00:04FORECAST2024148-13729.91219.79624.854114.274751959731.5307094881.5407094885.136.670709488TT-2.088-3.08856392.2487399047644.8241274591340.375611972018641621151210WETL
2024-02-21 19:00:03FORECAST2024148-13730.57821.12825.853114.184914130511.5204732621.6304732625.136.760473262TT-1.422-0.42256392.2018073827844.7835296978340.401725339941071621151210WETL
2024-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024148-13730.09220.60625.349113.225614459191.3492133271.4392133275.136.569213327TT-1.9080.09199999999999956391.6999876890544.3504717897510.382619169836162114128WETL
2024-02-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024148-13729.67821.79425.736115.178316317671.1236226541.1636226545.136.293622654TT-2.322-0.32256392.7201793463845.2328490410880.36656389250748162114128WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2024148-13729.71420.91225.313115.670007004741.2468510671.2468510675.226.466851067TT-2.286-0.28656392.9762673174445.4555675933050.36795123316093162114128WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:05FORECAST2024148-13728.50818.24823.378117.309594379971.4653551221.5853551225.086.665355122TT-3.492-6.49256393.8279082621846.1997921737470.32251438073311621151210WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024148-13729.35417.43823.396117.003306673581.4629929161.4629929164.876.332992916TT-2.646-3.64656393.6690843668146.0605846060790.35415812446068162114128WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024148-13729.40815.38622.397115.04341191381.2574809941.2574809944.756.007480994TF-2.592-0.59256392.6498609595945.1717796922710.35621545494146162114128WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2024148-13729.49816.28622.892115.318674266341.346457421.346457424.816.15645742TT-2.5023.49856392.7933148004745.2964043234710.35965362765187162114128WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:04FORECAST2024148-13730.6520.33625.493113.806558915540.9437012970.9437012974.75.643701297TF-1.352.6556392.0040318255744.6126299430860.40457718723599162113126WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:08FORECAST2024148-13730.23620.96625.601113.805264720981.0795281421.0795281424.615.689528142TF-1.7642.23656392.0033549920744.6120455863830.38825284451215162114128WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:08FORECAST2024148-13729.35417.65423.504113.928339011151.0759848331.0759848334.545.615984833TF-2.6466.35456392.067710014544.6676229818560.35415812446068162114128WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024148-13731.1922.83827.014112.835177048280.8196854820.8196854824.475.289685482TF-0.814.1956391.4953954323244.1744522571910.42611771326446162113126WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:05FORECAST2024148-13729.6621.63225.646113.625202137570.8653547980.8653547984.545.405354798TF-2.34-0.3456391.9091647785444.5307580675280.36587087384551162113126WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:04FORECAST2024148-13729.69621.63225.664112.574126291070.6606302780.6606302784.595.250630278TF-2.304-0.30456391.358489569444.0568400298670.36725734630513162113126WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024148-13732.52219.65226.087112.923826242560.661417680.661417684.725.38141768TF0.5226.52256391.5418661090544.2144056551870.48006776690214162113126WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:07FORECAST2024148-13731.71217.52824.62113.333877258520.6358271150.6358271154.665.295827115TF-0.2880.71256391.7566823215444.3993037494330.44715262334826162113126WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:07FORECAST2024148-13732.66620.33626.501113.342898011570.736220870.736220874.625.35622087TF0.6667.66656391.7614055700544.4033730363960.48594013122282162113126WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024148-13730.30821.45225.88113.205536751540.6657483910.6657483914.154.815748391TF-1.692-0.69256391.6894717610544.3414168906350.39107860397579162113126WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2024148-13728.47220.28224.377113.578103759010.6751972150.6751972154.134.805197215TF-3.528-2.52856391.8845206452644.5095007473950.32119394908038162113126WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:04FORECAST2024148-13732.79224.58428.688114.209042318280.8535437680.8535437684.235.083543768TF0.7921.79256392.2144133330144.7944325301890.49108099594713162113126WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024148-13734.19626.0630.128114.582088915350.8208665850.8208665854.215.030866585TF2.1963.19656392.4092160096944.9630676800240.54826995737727163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:07FORECAST2024148-13733.1724.9829.075114.631158809140.8799217350.8799217354.185.059921735TF1.177.1756392.4348262774644.9852588932490.50650906424178163113127.5WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2024148-13732.97224.90828.94114.567768359530.8334650170.8334650174.14.933465017TF0.9723.97256392.4017413084544.9565918021040.49842744749153162113126WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024148-13730.8323.7227.275122.646460968730.933071370.933071374.245.17307137TF-1.175.8356396.575571063448.638590297580.41172869881894162113126WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024148-13733.40424.42228.913122.265385727890.7791342790.7791342794.415.189134279TF1.4043.40456396.3806085451548.4636279988270.51605636355485163113127.5WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2024148-13728.56222.3725.466120.69068602640.4996065690.4996065694.284.779606569TF-3.438-10.43856395.5729698356147.7419731029610.32449922539052162113126WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024148-13728.83223.73826.285120.178943684840.6074806430.6074806433.964.567480643TF-3.168-5.16856395.309808998347.507915273670.33449738963405162113126WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:09FORECAST2024148-13727.30223.28825.295119.128788246930.5503939980.5503939983.884.430393998TF-4.698-4.69856394.7686996184647.0283168233630.27958343150829162113126WETL
2024-02-17 03:00:10FORECAST2024148-13730.23620.2125.223127.697018158281.3629928621.7429928623.985.722992862TF-1.764-9.76456399.1417492478650.9692112014320.388252844512151621151210WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:04FORECAST2024148-13730.12820.96625.547134.136981451171.6295284392.0695284394.36.369528439TT-1.872-10.87256402.3664923971353.9722267272470.384025314184131621151210WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:04FORECAST2024148-13728.36416.93422.649133.380155987091.5283472821.9183472824.116.028347282TT-3.636-14.63656401.9902496467853.6175222031740.317246239323221621151210WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2024148-13733.49422.24427.869120.121323713980.5547247090.5547247094.024.574724709TF1.4947.49456395.2801567965947.4815756722770.51972625098122163113127.5WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:05FORECAST2024148-13732.68419.1325.907118.038878224260.4535435520.4535435523.694.143543552TF0.6849.68456394.2055776185546.5315841718390.48667441737168162112124WETL
2024-02-16 07:00:10FORECAST2024148-13735.63620.42628.031115.427749509580.3003938630.3003938633.473.770393863TF3.63614.63656392.8501319658945.3458066273660.60589096066385163112125DRYL
2024-02-16 03:00:08FORECAST2024148-13735.45620.46227.959115.724539998820.2980316570.2980316573.463.758031657TF3.45613.45656393.0046501176445.4802823522610.59878694242373163112125DRYL
2024-02-15 23:00:08FORECAST2024148-13730.99229.46230.227109.75431624822003.693.69FF-1.0088.99256389.8738633574142.7903392958430.41819029471068162111122DRYL
2024-02-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024148-13730.81229.37230.092109.80744878231003.683.68FF-1.1886.81256389.901935970842.8141368642380.41101218487499162111122DRYL
2024-02-15 15:00:06FORECAST2024148-13731.62229.78630.704110.11282205811003.773.77TF-0.3789.62256390.0632067254742.9509604735790.44351358410433162111122DRYL
2024-02-15 11:00:06FORECAST2024148-13730.4729.58830.029124.598718308240.9870084071.4270084073.745.167008407TF-1.53-7.5356397.5714141812449.5368886429750.39745740673977162114128WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:10FORECAST2024148-13729.37229.19229.282112.79147015016003.943.94TF-2.6281.37256391.472480045644.1547565476740.35484343217072162111122DRYL
2024-02-15 03:00:09FORECAST2024148-13729.37229.19229.282112.97317406571003.953.95TF-2.628-1.62856391.567730132844.236649334810.35484343217072162111122DRYL