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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 24, 2024

[ Friday, February 23, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 25, 2024 ]

DAY 147 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/25/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.388
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 5

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 387.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.28 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-25 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024147-13830.6800625.7928.23503106.553264583330.0400000000000770.0400000000000774.814.8500000000001TF-1.319944.6800655387.37710754356 41.2762954336150.3876244402400916 2111122WETL
2024-02-25 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024147-13830.6800625.7928.23503106.553264583330.0400000000000770.0400000000000774.814.8500000000001TF-1.319944.6800655387.37710754356 41.2762954336150.3876244402400916 2111122WETL
2024-02-24 11:00:02FORECAST2024147-13831.6424.04427.842107.30339671110.0909449310.0909449314.814.900944931TF-0.365.6455387.7778424176841.6098796607190.42716001505873162112124WETL
2024-02-24 07:00:08FORECAST2024147-13832.03624.04428.04107.125428126630.0783464990.0783464994.814.888346499TF0.0360000000000016.03655387.6828372831341.5306899213020.4437097670147162111122WETL
2024-02-24 03:00:05FORECAST2024147-13831.80225.05228.427107.096521144420.0688976750.0688976754.814.878897675TF-0.1985.80255387.6674017872741.5178300925140.43391659332666162111122WETL
2024-02-23 23:00:01FORECAST2024147-13831.31625.19628.256110.117218883540.0330708840.0330708844.814.843070884TF-0.6842.31655389.2742543589542.8657982729710.41371267048895162111122WETL
2024-02-23 19:00:02FORECAST2024147-13832.10824.99828.553110.147251232380.0413386050.0413386054.814.851338605TF0.1083.10855389.2901681757442.8792419563510.44673026696706162111122WETL
2024-02-23 15:00:01FORECAST2024147-13831.58624.02627.806110.093446405950.0259842660.0259842664.814.835984266TF-0.4142.58655389.2616567194242.8551573419310.42491246013455162111122WETL
2024-02-23 11:00:04FORECAST2024147-13831.98225.6128.796109.914680613530.0259842660.0259842664.814.835984266TF-0.0180000000000012.98255389.1668998152842.7751554985530.44144652618608162111122WETL
2024-02-23 07:00:04FORECAST2024147-13831.94624.828.373109.87275685004.814.81TF-0.0539999999999982.94655389.1446714038842.7563978606310.43993875568709162111122WETL
2024-02-23 03:00:10FORECAST2024147-13832.28824.54828.418109.86931285004.814.81TF0.2883.28855389.1428452543842.7548570085920.45429467023865162111122WETL
2024-02-22 23:00:02FORECAST2024147-13833.42225.21429.318109.7678744004.814.81TF1.422-0.57855389.0890512789742.7094781112050.50222067366108163111122.5WETL
2024-02-22 19:00:02FORECAST2024147-13832.93624.54828.742109.902321502720.0291338740.0291338744.814.839133874TF0.936-1.06455389.1603471334342.769625586770.48164439819213162111122WETL
2024-02-22 15:00:02FORECAST2024147-13833.02624.11628.571110.21991409470.1114173830.1114173834.814.921417383TF1.026-0.97455389.3286664191642.9117721673230.485452766031162112124WETL
2024-02-22 11:00:02FORECAST2024147-13834.05225.12429.588110.334806763260.161417410.161417414.814.97141741TF2.052-0.94855389.3895243641642.9632179263590.52887678909076163112125WETL
2024-02-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024147-13832.57624.58428.58110.37259952290.0645669640.0645669644.814.874566964TF0.576-3.42455389.4095390766742.9801431069050.46643113330203162111122WETL
2024-02-22 03:00:07FORECAST2024147-13832.8124.22428.517110.440885562930.0862205190.0862205194.814.896220519TF0.81-3.1955389.4456978901943.0107277536660.47631557379001162111122WETL
2024-02-21 23:00:04FORECAST2024147-13833.99824.63829.318106.818805266940.0122047310.0122047315.25.212204731TF1.998-4.00255387.5190517470441.3943221257980.52659534733081163111122.5WETL
2024-02-21 19:00:03FORECAST2024147-13833.90824.76429.336107.144982531060.1082677750.1082677755.25.308267775TF1.908-2.09255387.6932781292441.5393895125670.52279104200119163112125WETL
2024-02-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024147-13832.8124.60228.706107.042091503630.0874016220.0874016225.25.287401622TF0.81-1.1955387.6383348506441.4936181093980.47631557379001162111122WETL
2024-02-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024147-13834.10624.9829.543109.836799038480.0370078940.0370078945.25.237007894TF2.106-0.89455389.1256043158742.7403108019690.53115728356924163111122.5WETL
2024-02-21 07:00:06FORECAST2024147-13834.93424.90829.921109.5999640801005.295.29TF2.934-1.06655388.9999760418542.6343834013460.56595264782564163111122.5WETL
2024-02-21 03:00:05FORECAST2024147-13830.97424.31427.644109.790602358230.1244095160.1244095165.155.274409516TF-1.026-6.02655389.1011053811942.7196447380540.39962750504794162112124WETL
2024-02-20 23:00:04FORECAST2024147-13834.14224.04429.093108.83114111806004.944.94TF2.142-3.85855388.5916353422642.290871103230.53267705015379163111122.5WETL
2024-02-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024147-13834.12425.59229.858108.23901177755004.824.82TF2.124-0.87655388.2765969266442.0266751476880.53191722500689163111122.5WETL
2024-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2024147-13835.45626.47430.965108.22972522846004.884.88TF3.4563.45655388.2716523061542.0225342430950.5876461942106163111122.5WETL
2024-02-20 11:00:03FORECAST2024147-13834.41226.65430.533109.0933390389004.774.77TF2.4121.41255388.7309846887842.4079611075770.54405860169823163111122.5WETL
2024-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2024147-13835.45627.33831.397108.38370976857004.684.68TF3.4561.45655388.3536262670242.0912067168950.5876461942106163111122.5WETL
2024-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2024147-13836.73428.45432.594108.09125681309004.614.61TF4.7345.73455388.1979110001341.9608000922190.63951647242084163111122.5WETL
2024-02-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024147-13839.50629.6634.583108.36490564916004.544.54TF7.5061.50655388.3436175770242.0828194781890.74262511660397164111123WETL
2024-02-19 19:00:04FORECAST2024147-13838.328.79633.548108.78200488103004.614.61TF6.3-0.755388.5655107634842.2689352884730.69965830082774164111123WETL
2024-02-19 15:00:04FORECAST2024147-13838.76828.0433.404109.02580878146004.664.66TF6.768-1.23255388.6951035084442.37779802940.71671303715116164111123WETL
2024-02-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024147-13841.73830.18235.96109.45555350129004.794.79TF9.7382.73855388.923336858642.5698191054260.8128583917921164111123WETL
2024-02-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024147-13839.57828.54434.061109.70914148903004.734.73TF7.578-2.42255389.0578982051542.6832080016130.74508563722101164111123WETL
2024-02-19 03:00:07FORECAST2024147-13841.19830.235.699109.1962585632004.694.69TF9.1984.19855388.785657584242.4539391912270.79704926525155164111123WETL
2024-02-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024147-13840.49628.72434.61108.9468020865004.224.22TF8.496-1.50455388.6531166835942.3425141836260.77534909156018164111123WETL
2024-02-18 19:00:02FORECAST2024147-13840.53227.98634.259108.88009420444004.24.2TF8.532-2.46855388.6176593020742.312727354320.77649292677362164111123WETL
2024-02-18 15:00:04FORECAST2024147-13839.30828.1333.719109.24587253855004.34.3TF7.308-1.69255388.8120084081342.476107112010.73579568491694164111123WETL
2024-02-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024147-13840.33429.22834.781110.07657270127004.284.28TF8.334-1.66655389.2527144532542.8476047216820.77016101231927164111123WETL
2024-02-18 07:00:07FORECAST2024147-13840.65829.10234.88109.56091979893004.254.25TF8.6582.65855388.979257882342.6169252762910.78047020533919164111123WETL
2024-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2024147-13840.65828.3134.484109.55599442266004.174.17TF8.658-0.34255388.9766441722542.6147230594790.78047020533919164111123WETL
2024-02-17 23:00:03FORECAST2024147-13837.54427.0532.297116.15553833811004.314.31TF5.5443.54455392.4496036239245.5851949795160.67117414459353163111122.5WETL
2024-02-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024147-13837.72427.1432.432117.04104239306004.484.48TF5.724-1.27655392.9111793299145.9867339966580.67805508045679163111122.5WETL
2024-02-17 15:00:05FORECAST2024147-13835.36623.88229.624116.7433854214004.354.35TF3.366-9.63455392.7561391953245.8516813347020.5839230422653163111122.5WETL
2024-02-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024147-13836.2324.47630.353115.50662695606004.034.03TF4.23-4.7755392.1106938835545.291383643890.6193072276459163111122.5WETL
2024-02-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024147-13835.99623.86429.93114.69822142615003.953.95TF3.996-3.00455391.6877022760744.925882805560.60980867617272163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-17 03:00:09FORECAST2024147-13833.56623.12628.346117.749255703950.3803151660.3803151664.054.430315166TF1.566-11.43455393.2795944275546.3083795273930.50831868017815163112125WETL
2024-02-16 23:00:04FORECAST2024147-13831.31624.20627.761120.496545189420.4381892130.4381892134.374.808189213TF-0.684-11.68455394.7024888743347.5602862870210.41371267048895162112124WETL
2024-02-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024147-13830.52423.0926.807119.680883481980.3901576910.3901576914.184.570157691TF-1.476-14.47655394.2810717938447.187907012510.38129429209321162112124WETL
2024-02-16 15:00:05FORECAST2024147-13837.0424.74630.893115.74318152884004.094.09TF5.043.0455392.2343049635945.398446361240.65160302886195163111122.5WETL
2024-02-16 11:00:05FORECAST2024147-13837.4924.72831.109114.21509593142003.763.76TF5.496.4955391.4344958455144.7077284938620.66909836891329163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-16 07:00:10FORECAST2024147-13837.36427.10432.234113.07621928075003.543.54FF5.3648.36455390.8363787576844.1943000672960.66423473368331163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-16 03:00:08FORECAST2024147-13837.23825.84431.541113.20438871423003.533.53FF5.2387.23855390.9037774229144.2520231692450.65934345066668163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-15 23:00:08FORECAST2024147-13838.2125.37631.793109.75431624822003.763.76TF6.217.2155389.0818601851842.7034135292090.69632613063063163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024147-13837.5826.90632.243109.80744878231003.753.75TF5.584.5855389.1100396774542.7271807525650.6725550744351163111122.5DRYL
2024-02-15 15:00:05FORECAST2024147-13838.73226.92432.828110.11282205811003.843.84TF6.7326.73255389.2719244268442.8638301466310.71541775589753164111123DRYL
2024-02-15 11:00:05FORECAST2024147-13834.0725.73629.903115.864024095080.4417325220.4417325223.814.251732522TF2.07-8.9355392.2974223292345.4531579931930.52963706285204163112125WETL
2024-02-15 07:00:09FORECAST2024147-13838.42627.73433.08112.79147015016004.014.01TF6.4261.42655390.6865631734444.0661118282470.70429538970769164111123WETL
2024-02-15 03:00:09FORECAST2024147-13837.27427.53632.405112.97317406571004.024.02TF5.274-1.72655390.7821758995544.1479027796780.66074373949701163111122.5WETL
2024-02-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024147-13827.64425.68226.663111.9738932950200.053.883.93TF-4.356-17.35655390.2558072731943.6984621213690.27164807423315162111122DRYL
2024-02-14 19:00:05FORECAST2024147-13828.00425.66426.834112.3997736082800.053.954TF-3.996-13.99655390.4803020268443.8898975463090.28446949888802162111122DRYL
2024-02-14 15:00:05FORECAST2024147-13832.91826.90629.912120.968955067830.2405513111.3505513114.065.410551311TF0.9183.91855394.9461636291347.7762247222640.48088291444962162114128WETL
2024-02-14 11:00:08FORECAST2024147-13830.93828.65229.795126.7537712663401.444.345.78TF-1.062-7.06255397.9064506062550.4361432255460.3981520843891162114128WETL
2024-02-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024147-13822.49621.18221.839126.8202088859501.454.385.83TF-9.504-17.50455397.9401969810150.4668589052480.12411871417309161114126WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:10FORECAST2024147-13822.83822.31622.577120.0563593929500.834.164.99TF-9.162-8.16255394.475172387947.3592530677960.13172105935503161113124.5WETL