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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 2, 2024

[ Thursday, February 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 3, 2024 ]

DAY 125 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/03/2024 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.576
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 111

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 88 in
SWE DAY: 33
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-03 07:00:06OBSERVATION2024125-16034.4600626.9099630.6850188.164193750.00999999999999091.0611.1412.2TT2.46006111.4600633358.07664299129 31.5695385300330.5759975156219516 31141210WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024125-16034.4600626.9099630.6850188.164193750.00999999999999091.0611.1412.2TT2.46006111.4600633358.07664299129 31.5695385300330.5759975156219516 31141210WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2024125-16029.31821.23625.27789.0461453201810.0129921331.06299213311.1412.202992133TT-2.682106.31833358.6132836563531.933130570210.34128841666909162114128WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2024125-16029.4822.08225.78189.2033495275840.0429134091.09291340911.1412.232913409TT-2.52106.4833358.7088114546231.9980274868110.34825840232733162114128WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2024125-16030.43424.33227.38389.2861997313930.0700787781.12007877811.1412.260078778TT-1.566107.43433358.7591414370832.0322403578140.3902779870341162114128WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:02FORECAST2024125-16030.39823.43226.9158900.9211.1412.06TT-1.602101.39833358.5852354287931.9140859531620.38866525479353162113126WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:01FORECAST2024125-16031.08224.40427.7438900.9211.1412.06TT-0.918102.08233358.5852354287931.9140859531620.41960444110319162113126WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:01FORECAST2024125-16030.61424.27827.4468900.9211.1412.06TT-1.386101.61433358.5852354287931.9140859531620.3983694674299162113126WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2024125-16029.91222.62226.26789.0181154828400.9211.1412.06TT-2.088100.91233358.5962468438331.9215621132570.36709144769925162113126WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2024125-16030.8322.1926.5189.51139961919200.9411.1412.08TT-1.17101.8333358.8958927380232.125273676560.40813692809639162113126WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:06FORECAST2024125-16030.25422.17226.21389.61162768373600.9811.1412.12TT-1.746101.25433358.9567304881732.1666968870770.38223374760376162113126WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2024125-16030.3824.29627.33892.46267801825600.9311.1412.07TT-1.6293.3833360.680828075333.3495152736850.38785960556716162113126WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:01FORECAST2024125-16030.86624.15227.50992.31859656949500.8911.1412.03TT-1.13494.86633360.5939978275833.2895318108260.4097705789559162113126WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2024125-16030.6523.7227.18592.33891454448200.911.1412.04TT-1.3594.6533360.6062443182133.2979891783060.39999314159678162113126WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:03FORECAST2024125-16030.79424.27827.53691.97471170150400.8211.1411.96TT-1.20694.79433360.3866281796333.1464562278990.40650487216985162113126WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:06FORECAST2024125-16030.52423.2726.89791.28586265899600.9311.1412.07TT-1.47692.52433359.9706928283232.860235226790.39431802800906162113126WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2024125-16030.16422.80226.48391.33076336898600.9211.1412.06TT-1.83691.16433359.9978265958632.8788763141750.37823036302476162113126WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2024125-16030.43422.65826.54692.23944903215701.0110.9711.98TT-1.56684.43433360.5462862803133.2565907970860.3902779870341162114128WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2024125-16030.8322.74826.78991.85678433269100.9610.9711.93TT-1.1785.8333360.3154738329633.0974207716060.40813692809639162113126WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2024125-16031.20823.97227.5992.02983907660800.8910.9711.86TT-0.79286.20833360.4198833127333.169383861280.42536455017349162113126WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2024125-16029.82223.50426.66392.77059617177800.8310.9711.8TT-2.17885.82233360.8662875278833.4777806322580.36313965818337162113126WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2024125-16030.07422.76626.4292.48157667427100.9111.0711.98TT-1.92685.07433360.6922149357733.3573847313950.37424000439832162113126WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:06FORECAST2024125-16031.29824.45827.87891.69254361872600.8611.1211.98TT-0.70291.29833360.2163396838433.0291524386380.42948876351483162113126WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2024125-16029.82222.5526.18696.5729011935150.0141732361.05417323611.2612.314173236TT-2.17880.82233363.1445056370135.0699184618510.36313965818337162114128WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2024125-16028.74221.52425.13396.79768197448401.0411.1512.19TT-3.25876.74233363.2784994312835.1645166561170.31695502015551162114128WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024125-16028.45420.98424.71996.75362883588201.1211.1112.23TT-3.54676.45433363.2522449961935.1459728861630.30507058176202162114128WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024125-16029.73219.72424.72896.1577785796501.0710.9211.99TT-2.26879.73233362.8968462138234.8953545854820.3592023786355162114128WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:09FORECAST2024125-16028.5822.31625.44895.7740102378120.0129921331.08299213310.8611.942992133TT-3.4278.5833362.6676601324634.734136194450.31024576334564162114128WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:07FORECAST2024125-16028.02221.99225.00796.6217336638530.0133858341.01338583410.8711.883385834TT-3.97877.02233363.173621605735.0904649405230.28762551212168162114128WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:04FORECAST2024125-16027.39220.8424.116101.980272442260.2043308191.36433081911.2812.644330819TT-4.60868.39233366.3467658993337.3601429947550.26306339598117162114128WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2024125-16028.0421.5624.8101.890447156330.2629922681.41299226811.2612.672992268TT-3.9673.0433366.2939295600237.3218522735210.28834289971667162114128WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:04FORECAST2024125-16028.47222.7325.601100.911797964060.2574804541.42748045411.2912.717480454TT-3.52877.47233365.7174942361736.9052098902830.30580754600952162114128WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:04FORECAST2024125-16028.56220.87624.719100.457650478530.1255906191.13559061911.4712.605590619TT-3.43871.56233365.4495091438636.7121990571260.30950411646911162114128WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:07FORECAST2024125-16027.44621.12824.287100.088910336020.1196851040.97968510411.4712.449685104TT-4.55467.44633365.2316940360836.5556422762510.26512602973486162113126WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:06FORECAST2024125-16027.6819.95823.819100.076053544210.0952756420.94527564211.5712.515275642TT-4.3266.6833365.2240958373636.5501861706540.27415788916487162113126WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:04FORECAST2024125-16025.721.23623.468110.2780646249600.912.1613.06TT-6.362.733371.1760024550940.9325711859750.20281428404076161113124.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:20FORECAST2024125-16025.7920.58823.189108.8465430558100.9812.313.28TT-6.2162.7933370.3501187381240.3113301449520.20579618012503161113124.5WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024125-16021.9216.73619.328111.9006978381501.0412.1213.16TT-10.0852.9233372.1085197725841.6392030340710.10141223514468161114126WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024125-16026.02421.39823.711109.654686658480111.9312.93TT-5.97664.02433370.8167278448940.6617920995560.21366960789114161114126WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:05FORECAST2024125-16026.92421.95624.44110.5357668455901.0311.8112.84TT-5.07667.92433371.3243591805341.0446227904660.24553663708877161114126WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:06FORECAST2024125-16028.50823.39625.952106.9624857018500.7312.0412.77TT-3.49262.50833369.2585677605139.496814274370.30728383163179162113126WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:04FORECAST2024125-16029.0321.75825.394112.1426695757700.9312.6713.6TT-2.9757.0333372.2472504340141.7448004059090.32903121729871162113126WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024125-16029.08422.78425.934112.3069696781200.8712.3913.26TT-2.91657.08433372.3414007025641.8165343986120.33131598889133162113126WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2024125-16029.55224.11626.834112.9505005340900.8612.3413.2TT-2.44860.55233372.7097904943242.0977573902910.35137286332356162113126WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024125-16031.33423.39627.365109.739348596790.0559055420.70590554212.713.405905542TT-0.66660.33433370.8655548821340.6985444097510.43114063221828162113126WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024125-16031.8224.15227.986111.626500039790.1673229251.08732292512.7413.827322925TT-0.1860.8233371.9512097206841.5196117266840.45354718628547162114128WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:08FORECAST2024125-16028.11222.35225.232111.832787930280.1866142740.70661427412.8913.596614274TT-3.88852.11233372.0695693776841.6095772475260.29122084458739162113126WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:04FORECAST2024125-16028.18422.35225.268108.810108181730.1866142740.71661427413.0613.776614274TT-3.81652.18433370.3290592554440.2955450004220.29411211476446162113126WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:05FORECAST2024125-16028.11222.35225.232109.494512401960.1866142740.70661427413.0113.716614274TT-3.88851.11233370.7243218973440.5922788616980.29122084458739162113126WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024125-16034.10625.7929.948109.525629250040.3476379830.96763798311.9912.957637983TT2.10664.10633370.742276425140.605781115050.55973958401226163113127.5WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:04FORECAST2024125-16030.7425.66428.202111.243339923880.1295276290.71952762912.0112.729527629TT-1.2666.7433371.7312032857141.3526206074240.40405983837494162113126WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:10FORECAST2024125-16034.10625.80829.957111.671749316550.3476379830.96763798311.9912.957637983TT2.10667.10633371.9771772375341.5393420879490.55973958401226163113127.5WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:08FORECAST2024125-16034.10625.80829.957111.671749316550.3476379830.96763798311.9912.957637983TT2.10667.10633371.9771772375341.5393420879490.55973958401226163113127.5WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024125-16034.10625.80829.957110.90963699240.3476379830.96763798312.1313.097637983TT2.10666.10633371.5394201151641.2073022133390.55973958401226163113127.5WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:04FORECAST2024125-16034.10625.7929.948111.572217394790.3476379830.96763798312.1313.097637983TT2.10663.10633371.9200542240641.4959451433690.55973958401226163113127.5WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:05FORECAST2024125-16031.02824.96227.995116.552946904990.3291340360.88913403612.0412.929134036TT-0.97265.02833374.760930556743.6794908412410.41714101020818162113126WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:05FORECAST2024125-16034.4323.19828.814117.009321867990.1755906460.78559064612.5713.355590646TT2.4360.4333375.0194418103943.8807705735480.57462181314752163113127.5WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2024125-16034.4323.07228.751115.051645126860.1803150580.81031505812.7613.570315058TT2.4362.4333373.9084084581443.0187775198750.57462181314752163113127.5WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024125-16032.30619.20225.754123.510739671290.5366144631.65661446313.1714.826614463TT0.30657.30633378.6697794051946.76978454550.47610262570531621151210WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2024125-16032.68423.19827.941120.592935709170.2259843741.81598437412.1113.925984374TT0.68465.68433377.0389799131445.4682374645180.493702599418581621151210WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:04FORECAST2024125-16035.00629.82232.414121.452929320520.1846457691.35464576911.4812.834645769TT3.00663.00633377.5208986021645.8510190149480.600805478732281631141210WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024125-16035.00629.82232.414121.452929320520.1846457691.35464576911.4812.834645769TT3.00663.00633377.5208986021645.8510190149480.600805478732281631141210WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:06FORECAST2024125-16035.02434.41234.718114.5197158564800.5511.2411.79TT3.02465.02433373.6055688038242.7852035818130.60161710508637163113127.5WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024125-16035.02434.41234.718122.7480644571200.5511.2611.81TT3.02463.02433378.2446760872846.4288018809240.60161710508637163113127.5WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:07FORECAST2024125-16032.95432.8132.882121.306882537790.011811030.851811039.7710.62181103TT0.95457.95433377.4391318638545.7859644341750.50628352206925163113127.5WETL