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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 13, 2024

[ Monday, February 12, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 14, 2024 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.705
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 84

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.87 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 378.45 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-14 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024136-14939.3499422.1500430.74999106.666453333330.00999999999999091.575.36.87TT7.3499484.3499444378.45384376207 40.3683292644680.7054199352478816 41151215WETL
2024-02-14 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024136-14939.3499422.1500430.74999106.666453333330.00999999999999091.575.36.87TT7.3499484.3499444378.45384376207 40.3683292644680.7054199352478816 41151215WETL
2024-02-13 11:00:01FORECAST2024136-14930.7419.52625.13310501.565.36.86TT-1.2675.7444377.5230053118139.639915557740.348447697102051621151210WETL
2024-02-13 07:00:05FORECAST2024136-14931.06420.37225.718104.9161287501.565.36.86TT-0.93676.06444377.4760527439739.6033261497280.361469364205061621151210WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:05FORECAST2024136-14930.59618.98624.791104.9161287501.565.36.86TT-1.40475.59644377.4760527439739.6033261497280.34271602576611621151210WETL
2024-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2024136-14932.1820.326.2498.99901601.045.36.34TT0.1873.1844374.1381780313837.039311473140.40747465223371162114128WETL
2024-02-12 19:00:01FORECAST2024136-14932.0920.22826.15998.99950801.045.36.34TT0.09000000000000373.0944374.1384576618837.0395232324050.40370731047429162114128WETL
2024-02-12 15:00:01FORECAST2024136-14932.68421.88427.28498.99458801.045.36.34TT0.68473.68444374.1356613411737.0374056505760.42872061736267162114128WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:03FORECAST2024136-14932.32422.49627.41100.5481131170401.045.36.34TT0.32473.32444375.0168853050437.7072402044510.41352009564717162114128WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:07FORECAST2024136-14932.82822.9127.869100.5853738686201.065.36.36TT0.82874.82844375.0379784794937.7233352802920.4348318887943162114128WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2024136-1493222.08227.041100.476661575701.025.36.32TT07444374.9764312653237.6763799831080.39994887933011162114128WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2024136-14931.92821.79426.861101.398921667700.965.36.26TT-0.07199999999999970.92844375.4980276144438.0750950884510.39694877370409162113126WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2024136-14931.13621.57826.357101.5525870949500.995.36.29TT-0.86470.13644375.584816431138.141609782160.36438561708101162113126WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:01FORECAST2024136-14930.93821.30826.123101.6165628965901.015.36.31TT-1.06269.93844375.6209393879538.1693088125910.35638531731441162114128WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2024136-14931.3721.12826.249103.5734843418301.025.36.32TT-0.6370.3744376.723054001939.0185193348740.37391696796689162114128WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024136-14932.32421.79427.059103.0314113373100.955.36.25TT0.32470.32444376.4183133654438.7829100792520.41352009564717162113126WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:06FORECAST2024136-14932.48620.5726.528103.4547680228601.065.36.36TT0.48670.48644376.6563503708338.9668953519490.42034573373202162114128WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2024136-14931.78419.54425.664105.9533796985401.375.36.67TT-0.21668.78444378.0560211798940.056313159390.39096698523398162114128WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024136-14931.60419.83225.718106.0370602909601.345.36.64TT-0.39666.60444378.1027437672540.0929034370260.38352601540425162114128WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2024136-14930.218.87824.539105.9259164226901.315.36.61TT-1.863.244378.0406850499840.0443060089820.32714276262018162114128WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2024136-14931.4619.6725.565104.81211247594015.36.3TT-0.5464.4644377.4178087488639.5579578210090.37760386015387162114128WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:14FORECAST2024136-14933.45821.14627.302104.5139640898800.95.36.2TF1.45868.45844377.2507750297139.4279739543360.46173303362873162113126WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:06FORECAST2024136-14930.93819.95825.448104.3557908774100.865.36.16TF-1.06265.93844377.1621091959939.359050194140.35638531731441162113126WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:04FORECAST2024136-14932.34219.63425.988100.5860093265500.724.965.68TF0.34268.34244375.0383381925737.7236097832510.4142772507595162113126WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024136-14932.07219.88625.97999.98850088333400.584.965.54TF0.07200000000000371.07244374.699850620637.4656763447630.4029549007141162113126WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024136-14932.84621.61427.2399.809396635410.1527559880.5127559884.965.472755988TF0.84669.84644374.598288239737.3884291298620.43559692465897162113126WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024136-14933.0821.41627.24899.58577924189300.374.965.33TF1.0871.0844374.4714194803937.2920281127720.44556330169806162112124WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:08FORECAST2024136-14931.35219.92225.63799.34834383352700.384.955.33TF-0.64862.35244374.3366322054337.1897244458290.37318095898407162112124WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2024136-14930.75821.75826.25899.7121309819820.1366142470.4366142474.965.396614247TF-1.24264.75844374.5431136736737.3464920090290.34916662670665162112124WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2024136-14930.8321.97426.40297.9048593113570.1358268450.3358268454.64.935826845TF-1.1762.8344373.5154436383836.5689769600350.35204773605979162112124WETL
2024-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024136-14932.4523.41427.93297.5985586360120.1232284130.3132284134.574.883228413TF0.4566.4544373.340803693436.4375243204860.41882677761293162112124WETL
2024-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024136-14933.33222.56827.9597.6180792564880.1744095430.3344095434.544.874409543TF1.33265.33244373.3519375958836.4458990347980.45633474781678162112124WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:05FORECAST2024136-14930.45222.62226.53797.6752987496380.1405512570.2805512574.584.860551257TF-1.54859.45244373.3845704812836.4704494702650.3370203143616162112124WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024136-14931.51423.4527.48297.4732728163740.094488240.314488244.634.94448824TF-0.48665.51444373.2693317511536.3837834077660.37982138309156162112124WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024136-14930.0221.7425.8898.5674868334850.1740158420.5440158424.635.174015842TF-1.9864.0244373.8927817970736.8536718469170.32016021221043162113126WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:04FORECAST2024136-14928.14822.08225.11597.8412271138560.2263780750.6063780754.595.196378075TF-3.85259.14844373.4791743781236.5416607226250.25162715981319162113126WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2024136-14928.7623.6326.19598.2367428614870.3763781560.6663781564.595.256378156TF-3.2461.7644373.7045165740636.7115145008620.27315622421976162113126WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:04FORECAST2024136-14930.70424.24227.47398.7345664631640.409449040.789449044.585.36944904TF-1.29664.70444373.9878263174136.9255258939510.34701147130531162113126WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024136-14929.67822.53226.10597.8944223040810.4023624220.5623624224.645.202362422TF-2.32264.67844373.5094951252836.5644962503790.30706878609291162113126WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:06FORECAST2024136-14929.87624.90827.39298.3734706551940.2960631520.4960631524.75.196063152TF-2.12464.87644373.7823635902536.7702683760750.31461948350626162113126WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:08FORECAST2024136-14931.51425.44828.48197.7564658465740.1854331710.4154331714.715.125433171TF-0.48670.51444373.4308528049436.5052804082830.37982138309156162112124WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:05FORECAST2024136-14932.6324.11628.37392.28764402111300.24.574.77TF0.6375.6344370.2910383131634.1732875280530.42643320729632162112124WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:04FORECAST2024136-14933.83624.20629.02192.5320529000890.0122047310.2022047314.574.772204731TF1.83670.83644370.43229377734.2768606036750.47796627336801162112124WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2024136-14932.5425.12428.83292.00331419790700.074.64.67TF0.5468.5444370.1266002616834.0528738968790.42262638660919162111122WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:05FORECAST2024136-14932.97223.70228.33791.9903943043600.034.584.61TF0.97268.97244370.1191254065234.0474042857310.44095876802361162111122WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:08FORECAST2024136-14933.40424.74629.07591.96005736712700.094.514.6TF1.40466.40444370.1015728880634.034561874450.45941856047549162111122WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024136-14929.71422.3726.04291.67067064797200.024.484.5TF-2.28659.71444369.934069862533.9121042798290.30843569988557162111122WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2024136-14933.24224.72828.98590.86161144027800.144.34.44TF1.24262.24244369.4651158203833.5701957944090.4524836988227162112124WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:04FORECAST2024136-14931.15424.58427.86991.9604978552520.0405512030.2205512034.394.610551203TF-0.84659.15444370.1018277578834.0347483377530.36511591572209162112124WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024136-14929.87621.66825.77293.473854731410.0279527710.2579527714.644.897952771TF-2.12452.87644370.9757863884634.6765367657460.31461948350626162112124WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:06FORECAST2024136-14929.8421.34425.59299.4440448049380.188976481.038976484.765.79897648TF-2.1654.8444374.3909694889337.2309523444210.31324073023708162114128WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:09FORECAST2024136-14935.8725.5230.69592.27823125723400.034.474.5TF3.8760.8744370.2855964773934.1692999029640.56526788057217163111122.5WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024136-14935.79825.41230.60592.05665140632700.034.434.46TF3.79866.79844370.1574561166434.0754559031820.56220642632896163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:05FORECAST2024136-14936.39227.73432.06391.51743907370700.084.284.36TF4.39269.39244369.8453263847533.8472971241120.5873354316973163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:06FORECAST2024136-14938.06627.532.78390.45342813476004.214.21TF6.06675.06644369.2281550052833.39795238410.65594768495993163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024136-14932.52222.0127.26690.49104753727004.114.11TF0.52260.52244369.2500043067633.413819692860.42186587682987162111122WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024136-14931.67624.24227.95991.30984795907500.024.274.29TF-0.32463.67644369.7250456819633.7595377078820.38649742282148162111122WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:09FORECAST2024136-14936.42827.60832.01891.62983684367800.074.374.44TF4.42873.42844369.9104244972133.8948318434550.58884803886723163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024136-14940.11824.90832.51394.06861141263600.214.564.77TF8.11861.11844371.3183378982534.9294004381370.73335259641095164112126WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:06FORECAST2024136-14926.4220.7523.585100.6150681728800.944.785.72TF-5.5849.4244375.054786886637.736162951160.19600089239179161113124.5WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024136-14931.2827.1429.2199.6783329907500.844.755.59TF-0.7252.2844374.5239383548437.3319218403410.37024157086924162113126WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:05FORECAST2024136-14931.1928.65229.921100.3914225459100.844.915.75TF-0.8158.1944374.9281614967937.6395714851850.36657797855321162113126WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:05FORECAST2024136-14925.32222.3723.84695.04631818495900.414.54.91TF-6.67840.32244371.8803270752635.3458558939220.1648788453327161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:10FORECAST2024136-14933.2630.4731.865100.379735805260.3767718570.4167718575.295.706771857TF1.2673.2644374.9215426308737.6345253969860.45325356291644162112124WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:10FORECAST2024136-14930.61430.61430.61498.9478998384250.1901575830.2201575835.155.370157583TF-1.38657.61444374.1091240178737.0173121319620.34343054177574162112124WETL