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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 12, 2024

[ Sunday, February 11, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 13, 2024 ]

DAY 135 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.355
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 83

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.56 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.15 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 105 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 376.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-13 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024135-15031.8599623.0599427.45995104.916128750.940000000000051.56000000000016.598.1500000000001TT-0.1400482.8599643376.63684826573 39.5152800646410.3551326635315916 21151210WETL
2024-02-13 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024135-15031.8599623.0599427.45995104.916128750.940000000000051.56000000000016.598.1500000000001TT-0.1400482.8599643376.63684826573 39.5152800646410.3551326635315916 21151210WETL
2024-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2024135-15028.16623.03625.601100.549884317040.4228348741.0428348746.597.632834874TT-3.83479.16643374.169324745437.6226823181350.20805789761654161114126WETL
2024-02-12 07:00:06FORECAST2024135-15028.61624.49426.555100.593442668620.4381892131.0581892136.597.648189213TT-3.38479.61643374.1940765382437.6414703851870.22381768899516161114126WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:06FORECAST2024135-15028.79623.39626.096100.47666157570.4023624221.0223624226.597.612362422TT-3.20479.79643374.1277101553137.5911033193660.23030640731283161114126WETL
2024-02-11 23:00:01FORECAST2024135-15029.324.2626.78101.39892166770.362204920.962204926.597.55220492TT-2.777.343374.6512923412637.9892370448130.24902180393893162113126WETL
2024-02-11 19:00:01FORECAST2024135-15028.88623.28826.087101.552587094950.3933072990.9933072996.597.583307299TT-3.11476.88643374.7384115828338.0556551800890.23358973772471161114126WETL
2024-02-11 15:00:01FORECAST2024135-15029.2123.77426.492101.616562896590.4098427411.0098427416.597.599842741TT-2.7977.2143374.7746720680638.0833140362520.24562159550913161114126WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:01FORECAST2024135-15029.33623.93626.636103.573484341830.4240159771.0240159776.597.614015977TT-2.66477.33643375.880982684938.9313030745070.25038885633347162114128WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:06FORECAST2024135-15028.77824.15226.465103.033182537310.3940947010.9540947016.597.544094701TT-3.22275.77843375.5760820347638.6967990169370.22965284670776161113124.5WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2024135-15029.19224.18826.69103.457720022860.4287403891.0587403896.597.648740389TT-2.80876.19243375.8156903099838.8810344682860.24494455397066161114126WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2024135-15029.91224.24227.077105.953379698540.5566932141.3666932146.597.956693214TT-2.08874.91243377.2190247743939.9676305614320.27279059783921162114128WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:03FORECAST2024135-15028.3123.41425.862106.037060290960.5539373071.3439373076.597.933937307TT-3.6973.3143377.2659252453440.0041696609660.21302850957362161114126WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:02FORECAST2024135-15027.1421.84824.494105.925916422690.539370371.309370376.597.89937037TT-4.8671.1443377.2036302563239.9556402128670.17466337887205161114126WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2024135-15027.35623.01825.187104.812112475940.4460632330.9960632336.597.586063233TT-4.64471.35643376.5783825223839.4699757849440.181395912201161114126WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:13FORECAST2024135-15028.25621.32624.791104.529806489880.1444882670.9044882676.597.494488267TT-3.74473.25643376.4196253498639.3470705968150.21115647759104161113124.5WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:06FORECAST2024135-15028.09421.48824.791104.355790877410.1263780210.8563780216.597.446378021TT-3.90673.09443376.3217094627239.2713496153220.20559843105372161113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:04FORECAST2024135-15029.08422.7325.907100.587878926550.0720472830.7220472836.256.972047283TT-2.91674.08443374.1909151250737.6390704660150.24090344327989161113124.5WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024135-15030.88422.2826.58299.9890912833340.0122047310.5822047316.256.832204731TT-1.11676.88443373.850412493337.3809630211040.31271076294799162113126WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2024135-15031.47823.32427.40199.19282077905200.366.256.61TT-0.52275.47843373.3968075756237.0382826133180.33827895798692162112124WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2024135-15031.69423.0927.39299.59640644189300.376.256.62TT-0.30675.69443373.6268295819237.2118895766370.34777261769834162112124WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:08FORECAST2024135-15029.24622.9126.07899.3483438335270.0137795350.3837795356.246.623779535TT-2.75469.24643373.4854752337937.1051634103540.24697868372354161112123WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:07FORECAST2024135-15029.53423.5426.53799.1281728737080.0692913760.2992913766.256.549291376TF-2.46671.53443373.3599398494837.0104886615160.2579780844757162112124WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024135-15030.16421.61425.88997.29244368877600.25.896.09TF-1.83670.16443372.3105205159936.2230003520410.28289439153622162112124WETL
2024-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024135-15031.35224.49427.92397.07850842354800.195.866.05TF-0.64872.35243372.1879028794536.1314464648250.33278760350244162112124WETL
2024-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2024135-15030.45223.68427.06896.85426075151800.165.835.99TF-1.54870.45243372.059303111136.035528758550.29465688484169162112124WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2024135-15028.83220.82224.82797.01698576828700.145.876.01TF-3.16866.83243372.1526286482636.1051262771990.23161663818042161112123WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024135-15030.09221.6525.87197.053141972540.0137795350.2237795355.926.143779535TF-1.90872.09243372.1733596032136.1205939079670.27998935194103162112124WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:07FORECAST2024135-15030.90223.21627.05997.7399811551040.0165354420.3665354425.926.286535442TF-1.09871.90243372.5668125689836.4146732395090.31347325859339162112124WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024135-15030.75821.32626.04296.5864404507820.011811030.381811035.886.26181103TF-1.24268.75843371.9056196470635.9210399853520.3073958418512162112124WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2024135-15030.9222.62226.77196.140718139810.0129921330.2929921335.886.172992133TF-1.0870.9243371.6496186874335.7306612369960.31423655152421162112124WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024135-15031.02823.41427.22196.5301119091310.0952756420.3752756425.876.245275642TF-0.97272.02843371.8732833018435.8969696531430.31883290033488162112124WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024135-15032.43222.85627.64495.77413476449800.165.936.09TF0.43273.43243371.4388539225735.5742348523510.38090278181571162112124WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024135-15031.9124.65628.28396.7817160005170.1433071640.2033071645.996.193307164TF-0.0972.9143372.0176850417836.0045099408830.35736264602729162112124WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2024135-15033.09824.94429.02196.8336993624610.1622048120.23220481266.232204812TF1.09877.09843372.0475080630836.0267365443330.41157752595335162112124WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:05FORECAST2024135-15034.5225.98830.25492.2986648211130.1519685860.2019685865.866.061968586TF2.5280.5243369.4308744258734.0979764532040.47867220145671162112124WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024135-15031.69424.90828.30192.4637262699420.141732360.191732365.866.05173236TF-0.30674.69443369.5266414190134.1678102216190.34777261769834162112124WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2024135-15032.91825.37629.14792.00626619790700.075.895.96TF0.91873.91843369.2611290926633.9743377398390.40322503583217162111122WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:05FORECAST2024135-15033.20624.33228.76992.0052527043600.035.875.9TF1.20674.20643369.2605405128933.9739093436370.4166085797389162111122WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:07FORECAST2024135-15033.04424.27828.66191.98347656712700.095.85.89TF1.04471.04443369.2478937971533.9647049865520.40906738456692162111122WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024135-15030.72225.08827.90591.6706706479720.0244094620.0244094625.775.794409462TF-1.27867.72243369.0661513271533.8325416056260.30588461997499162111122WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024135-15029.5724.69227.13190.8838498402780.1366142470.1366142475.595.726614247TF-2.4366.5743368.608363896333.5005471942220.25937063495324162112124WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:04FORECAST2024135-15029.4824.47626.97891.7109712724110.1795276560.1795276565.685.859527656TF-2.5266.4843369.0895743816633.8495633530630.25589654397118162112124WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024135-15028.5823.48626.03393.2746976476290.2287402810.2987402815.866.158740281TF-3.4260.5843369.9965760647234.5113187630950.22253250628522161112123WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:06FORECAST2024135-15029.19222.31625.75498.2141541378870.299212760.989212765.916.89921276TT-2.80863.19243372.838040353336.6179727637260.24494455397066161113124.5WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:09FORECAST2024135-15033.94424.78229.36392.38893125723300.035.765.79TF1.94462.94443369.4832510793434.1361626846680.45131167349426162111122WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024135-15033.85424.60229.22892.16410420632700.045.715.75TF1.85468.85443369.3527739970634.0410675515610.44705408728478162111122WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2024135-15037.09427.71632.40591.69200067370700.15.555.65TF5.09471.09443369.0785488122933.8415505463470.60034481359004163112125WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:05FORECAST2024135-15038.64228.09433.36890.6860457347600.075.435.5TF6.64274.64243368.4931336910733.4171851748530.66978097863895163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024135-15034.12421.7427.93290.49390113727005.45.4TF2.12466.12443368.3811449688233.3362469136430.45984318349591162111122WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024135-15035.76223.32429.54391.30984795907500.025.565.58TF3.76269.76243368.8563313436633.6802155337320.53784129829748163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:08FORECAST2024135-15038.28227.30232.79291.79032724367800.075.665.73TF6.28275.28243369.1356897167533.8830857564220.65404657904475163111122.5WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:07FORECAST2024135-15032.61225.12428.86894.34570581263600.395.676.06TF0.61258.61243370.6157130716934.9660010350010.3891285032636162112124WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:06FORECAST2024135-15031.3726.5128.94100.615068172880.5035435791.2135435795.87.013543579TT-0.6361.3743374.206364094437.6507988340840.33356992579876162114128WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024135-15033.09827.03230.06599.678332990750.4192915651.1092915655.776.879291565TT1.09859.09843373.6734945006337.2471510146510.41157752595335162114128WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:05FORECAST2024135-15034.724.33229.516100.391422545910.7114177071.1114177075.937.041417707TT2.764.743374.0792566127237.5543487162660.48724915872409162114128WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:05FORECAST2024135-15033.22421.8327.52795.0463181849590.4074805350.5774805355.626.197480535TF1.22453.22443371.0198183871235.2640677113480.41744844183297162113126WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:10FORECAST2024135-15037.70628.11232.90997.3482634261040.0381889970.6381889975.986.618188997TT5.70677.70643372.3425028062236.2468960479150.62831951399897163113127.5WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:09FORECAST2024135-15037.54427.48232.51397.220267814850.0303149770.6203149775.856.470314977TT5.54464.54443372.2691601455936.1921074485630.62097339130349163113127.5WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2024135-15032.19824.42228.3198.39338231374900.416.096.5TF0.19865.19843372.9404741445636.6948746527760.37028977741509162112124WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:05FORECAST2024135-15028.00424.4426.222109.0138777045701.546.457.99TT-3.99650.00443378.9278741168341.3083969278240.20254844358734161115127.5WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:05FORECAST2024135-15028.00423.9925.997106.1906879072701.326.337.65TT-3.99660.00443377.352002986840.0712687803540.20254844358734161114126WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:06FORECAST2024135-15028.63425.26826.951107.5273596748401.366.397.75TT-3.36645.63443378.0995260074840.6560437258920.22446185625017161114126WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:08FORECAST2024135-15029.1227.3228.2298.5410243291780.0492126251.1092126255.36.409212625TT-2.8858.1243373.0248205617536.7582479183620.24224644307012161114126WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:07FORECAST2024135-15021.93821.30821.62399.7333941897601.175.456.62TT-10.06249.93843373.7048516056637.2708532758130.059517628180971161114126WETL