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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 11, 2024

[ Saturday, February 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, February 12, 2024 ]

DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/12/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.469
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.62 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.75 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 99 in
SWE DAY: 42
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 372.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.87 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-12 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024134-15134.6299829.2600431.9450198.9958650.621.046.757.79TT2.6299881.6299842372.42930498433 36.8689611982730.4691156665319316 2114128WETL
2024-02-12 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024134-15134.6299829.2600431.9450198.9958650.621.046.757.79TT2.6299881.6299842372.42930498433 36.8689611982730.4691156665319316 2114128WETL
2024-02-11 11:00:01FORECAST2024134-15131.60427.30229.453101.945351207310.6011814271.0211814276.757.771181427TT-0.39678.60442374.1121510995338.1389946347620.32307487691971162114128WETL
2024-02-11 07:00:05FORECAST2024134-15131.1927.0529.12101.506401934460.5578743170.9778743176.757.727874317TT-0.8178.1942373.8625039112737.9494375902410.30455940317626162113126WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:05FORECAST2024134-15130.61427.12228.868101.781045613810.6318901051.0518901056.757.801890105TT-1.38677.61442374.0187368361738.068018114340.27961698329572162114128WETL
2024-02-10 23:00:02FORECAST2024134-15132.43227.66230.047103.762122268150.807087051.227087056.757.97708705TT0.43276.43242375.1424631037238.9255781245410.36141024683322162114128WETL
2024-02-10 19:00:01FORECAST2024134-15131.8227.21229.516103.765728048230.7944886181.2144886186.757.964488618TT-0.1875.8242375.1445032596938.9271425040330.33291585057073162114128WETL
2024-02-10 15:00:01FORECAST2024134-15130.81227.19429.003103.662810810910.7669295481.1869295486.757.936929548TT-1.18874.81242375.08626518238.8824965453330.28807860409564162114128WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:02FORECAST2024134-15131.33426.74429.039102.891518687230.5523625030.9723625036.757.722362503TT-0.66675.33442374.649326946938.5482382247150.31094618915173162113126WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:12FORECAST2024134-15131.26226.92429.093103.883343430320.7562996211.1762996216.757.926299621TT-0.73876.26242375.2110399815738.9781773252510.3077455204127162114128WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:06FORECAST2024134-15131.40626.92429.165103.783243532410.728346851.148346856.757.89834685TT-0.59476.40642375.15441328238.9347418359030.31416121132437162114128WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:04FORECAST2024134-15132.12627.35629.741100.260874315140.6460633410.7260633416.757.476063341TT0.12676.12642373.1526075566337.4126066866030.34705500621642162113126WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024134-15132.52227.9530.23699.9379087908730.5716538520.6516538526.757.401653852TT0.52276.52242372.9681643396537.2736583896750.36567085113277162113126WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:01FORECAST2024134-15132.4527.42829.93999.1928207790520.3562994050.4362994056.757.186299405TT0.4575.4542372.5420724762536.9534990277930.36226101418292162112124WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2024134-15132.46826.25829.36399.5964064418930.3673230330.4473230336.757.197323033TT0.46875.46842372.7729702290437.1268482534830.36311246213404162112124WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:08FORECAST2024134-15130.7424.47627.60899.2817393026640.3732285480.4432285486.757.193228548TT-1.2670.7442372.5929645042436.9916775679160.2849877128993162112124WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2024134-15130.52426.31228.41898.8022048184320.232283590.312283596.757.06228359TT-1.47672.52442372.3183693749636.785875788650.27581103635179162112124WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024134-15130.32625.68228.00497.2924436887760.2035434170.3035434176.376.673543417TT-1.67471.32642371.4516496728636.1394387088990.26752851118844162112124WETL
2024-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2024134-15131.06426.92428.99497.0785084235480.1917323870.2617323876.376.631732387TT-0.93672.06442371.3285652028736.0480232449510.29901929650505162112124WETL
2024-02-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024134-15130.48825.55628.02296.8542607515180.1566929980.1966929986.376.566692998TF-1.51271.48842371.1994758257435.9522508224530.27429580880059162112124WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2024134-15129.42624.69227.05997.0169857682870.1409449580.2209449586.376.590944958TF-2.57469.42642371.2931566746136.0217428969630.23152647220944161112123WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024134-15130.54226.00628.27496.9917244362950.2070867260.3270867266.386.707086726TT-1.45872.54242371.2786162557536.0109532369660.27657018759411162112124WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024134-15130.95626.22228.58997.6620297096680.3496064880.4696064886.386.849606488TT-1.04471.95642371.6641279730436.2974731081210.29430734967455162112124WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024134-15130.23624.11627.17696.5219212224340.3716537440.5116537446.326.831653744TT-1.76469.23642371.0080275068535.8104076039060.26380557283093162113126WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2024134-15130.93825.3428.13996.0725617980990.2767718030.4167718036.326.736771803TT-1.06270.93842370.7489113036635.6187976927980.29352536768533162112124WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:03FORECAST2024134-15131.02825.50228.26596.0353790257660.2767718030.4167718036.316.726771803TT-0.97272.02842370.7274571782335.602951865370.2974448467513162112124WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024134-15130.41625.01627.71695.7764963644980.1586615030.3586615036.316.668661503TT-1.58472.41642370.5780280317335.4926651545440.27127772321121162112124WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024134-15132.2726.2429.25596.1243474659790.0610236550.3310236556.36.631023655TT0.2772.2742370.7787877926335.6408690307930.35378459650232162112124WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2024134-15133.69227.15830.42596.1430242322540.0665354690.3465354696.36.646535469TT1.69274.69242370.7895619371535.6488298383910.42238875352846162112124WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2024134-15134.66426.97830.82191.6785254589750.0547244390.3547244396.146.494724439TF2.66476.66442368.1995112777533.7559882686590.47082244497783162112124WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024134-15132.43226.31229.37291.7611962265850.0535433360.3535433366.146.493543336TF0.43274.43242368.2477395839333.7908530919570.36141024683322162112124WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2024134-15131.44225.1628.30192.0173853979070.0657480670.3457480676.196.535748067TF-0.55872.44242368.3971304054333.8989407280.31577404215685162112124WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024134-15130.86624.54827.70792.021095104360.0299212760.2099212766.276.479921276TF-1.13471.86642368.3992929214733.9005063703050.29040709400809162112124WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:07FORECAST2024134-15129.76823.91826.84391.9975477671270.0854331170.2054331176.266.465433117TF-2.23268.76842368.3855660193833.8905687065880.24488071299227161112123WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024134-15130.23623.91827.07791.52125148676300.116.246.35TF-1.76468.23642368.1077331403633.6896804189610.26380557283093162112124WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024134-15131.35223.88227.61790.039739389500.046.136.17TF-0.64868.35242367.241386454833.0663187294290.31174860686966162111122WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024134-15130.97422.80226.88890.55044799127500.126.146.26TF-1.02667.97442367.5404027894433.2809481274780.29509029143453162112124WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2024134-15132.41422.47827.44691.73312283275700.236.286.51TF0.41463.41442368.2313633194633.7790128822570.36056016391605162112124WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:05FORECAST2024134-15132.1824.76428.47296.342656075450.5488191940.9788191946.27.178819194TT0.1865.1842370.9046924727835.7339432236750.34957309376586162113126WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:08FORECAST2024134-15132.3623.43227.89692.4315384572340.0267716680.2567716686.116.366771668TF0.3660.3642368.6384287279834.0738171017850.35801405991809162112124WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024134-15132.37823.0927.73492.2040546063270.0271653690.2571653696.076.327165369TF0.37866.37842368.5059210546633.9777400676790.35886206665291162112124WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2024134-15132.97221.86627.41991.8678414737070.0818898080.1718898086.066.231889808TF0.97264.97242368.3099391173233.835839100020.38721346457271162112124WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:05FORECAST2024134-15134.19620.06627.13190.9351945347600.15.986.08TF2.19667.19642367.7654131744533.4428193901750.44740343184877162112124WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024134-15131.26221.79426.52890.5355243372700.045.945.98TF-0.73863.26242367.5316705943533.2746725078130.3077455204127162111122WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2024134-15131.06422.96427.01491.4178911590750.0240157610.0240157616.146.164015761TF-0.93665.06442368.0473966543133.6461168487250.29901929650505162111122WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:08FORECAST2024134-15133.4424.99829.21992.0451832436780.0685039740.0685039746.246.308503974TF1.4468.4442368.4133342342233.9106728590040.40999136623271162111122WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024134-15129.76821.23625.50294.3540698126360.2059056230.3859056236.256.635905623TT-2.23256.76842369.7552365948434.8879114072570.24488071299227161112123WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2024134-15130.7423.46827.10496.7751422751020.4421262230.7221262236.377.092126223TT-1.2660.7442371.1539132995635.9184727655250.2849877128993162113126WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024134-15131.76622.4627.11396.5575957701970.4192915650.6892915656.357.039291565TT-0.23456.76642371.0285860174135.8256282278570.33044446441586162113126WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024134-15132.7223.88228.30195.4052902824890.1314961340.4014961346.516.911496134TT0.7260.7242370.3635933779535.3346461362890.37510202736441162112124WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:05FORECAST2024134-15130.0220.8425.4392.21206224096900.176.26.37TF-1.9851.0242368.510586743333.9811211612290.25497943884465162112124WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:10FORECAST2024134-15136.12221.00228.56297.25448827798301.036.137.16TT4.12271.12242371.4298174724836.1232168294710.54406205526411631141210WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:09FORECAST2024134-15136.03221.32628.67997.225945753857016.027.02TT4.03258.03242371.4133982394636.1110189094850.539558844377461631141210WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:06FORECAST2024134-15137.07622.31629.69698.39446471374900.916.177.08TT5.07664.07642372.0846225134136.6110672604250.59133727971477163113127.5WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024134-15133.99820.64227.32109.0138777045702.675.98.57TT1.99852.99842378.0941970552541.2175145585880.437545562945941621151210WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:05FORECAST2024134-15133.49421.8327.662106.1906879072702.335.98.23TT1.49463.49442376.5123262227139.9821029271550.412640833883231621151210WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:05FORECAST2024134-15135.0621.84828.454107.5273596748402.425.918.33TT3.0648.0642377.2626952348340.5660615224140.490720974201991621151210WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:07FORECAST2024134-15137.74225.57431.65898.0561003926350.3590553121.3390553125.66.939055312TT5.74259.74242371.8904631087436.4661285856540.6236112747421631141210WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:07FORECAST2024134-15135.97818.57227.27599.733394189760.4000002161.5200002165.687.200000216TT3.97858.97842372.8512893005137.1857246099670.536854442996611631151212.5WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2024134-15127.4115.63821.524103.476122940530.4771656121.6971656125.497.187165612TT-4.5945.4142374.9805847088438.8015370836430.16152930690052161115127.5WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024134-15126.36621.25423.81102.255187022650.4437010271.5137010275.436.943701027TT-5.63444.36642374.2881990432738.272909793540.13136218933244161115127.5WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024134-15122.89221.222.04689.633089645257005.555.55TF-9.10835.89242367.0030183157532.8956144407760.059500923907772161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:05FORECAST2024134-15119.16617.61818.39290.57571640316005.715.71TF-12.83438.16642367.555187200833.291574398410.02113207850007161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:08FORECAST2024134-15129.94829.17429.56190.372917265363005.635.63TF-2.05257.94842367.4365037631733.2063087548630.2520720593208162111122WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:09FORECAST2024134-15136.17636.12236.14990.640332661439005.745.74TF4.17669.17642367.5929895091533.3187508531220.54676130501645163111122.5WETL