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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 10, 2024

[ Friday, February 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 11, 2024 ]

DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/11/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.600
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 79

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.80 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.95 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 100 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 371.96 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.07 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-11 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024133-15236.5500418.8799827.7150199.6700762500.87.157.95TT4.5500478.5500441371.95814253073 37.0730964278460.5997486871806716 3113127.5WETL
2024-02-11 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024133-15236.5500418.8799827.7150199.6700762500.87.157.95TT4.5500478.5500441371.95814253073 37.0730964278460.5997486871806716 3113127.5WETL
2024-02-10 11:00:01FORECAST2024133-15233.83620.0326.933100.972152800.87.157.95TT1.83675.83641372.7041599380437.6327413864590.46738402898246162113126WETL
2024-02-10 07:00:11FORECAST2024133-15234.95221.14628.049101.2473848833300.87.157.95TT2.95276.95241372.8615369666737.7512555414560.52221573543111163113127.5WETL
2024-02-10 03:00:05FORECAST2024133-15235.02420.96627.995101.2446296833300.87.157.95TT3.02477.02441372.8599620951937.7500687860690.5257499447254163113127.5WETL
2024-02-09 23:00:02FORECAST2024133-15235.16820.28227.72597.93505600.467.157.61TT3.16876.16841370.9602304778136.3300109456170.53281201046208163112125WETL
2024-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2024133-15235.25820.98428.12197.93062800.467.157.61TT3.25876.25841370.9576780446336.3281183723330.53722070431241163112125WETL
2024-02-09 15:00:01FORECAST2024133-15234.1621.6527.90597.962312800.467.157.61TT2.1675.1641370.975941489836.3416612214980.4832852956228162112124WETL
2024-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2024133-15234.48423.12628.80598.31458727576900.467.157.61TT2.48475.48441371.1788971427436.4923000780640.49921319591936163112125WETL
2024-02-09 07:00:07FORECAST2024133-15232.77420.62426.69997.91708115705500.457.157.6TT0.77471.77441370.9498690562236.3223284335770.41575941018741162112124WETL
2024-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2024133-15233.0820.67826.87997.93139472517600.467.157.61TT1.0874.0841370.9581200102836.3284460772360.43052600897353162112124WETL
2024-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2024133-15233.38621.05627.22196.46192425289100.17.157.25TT1.38673.38641370.1094868984535.7014732904750.44539039791819162112124WETL
2024-02-08 19:00:02FORECAST2024133-15233.09820.69626.89796.3092600430600.077.157.22TT1.09873.09841370.0211401054935.6364622038490.43139787741905162111122WETL
2024-02-08 15:00:03FORECAST2024133-15233.72820.08426.90696.19399431677500.047.157.19TT1.72872.72841369.9544131173635.5873927128770.4620938957549162111122WETL
2024-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2024133-15232.79217.76225.27796.40218306392400.087.157.23TT0.79271.79241370.0749187465235.6760300643690.41662496261241162111122WETL
2024-02-08 07:00:06FORECAST2024133-15233.69220.35427.02396.13782989293900.137.157.28TT1.69273.69241369.9218926190835.5634879862870.46033196041931162112124WETL
2024-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2024133-15233.22418.66225.94396.19243227016600.137.157.28TT1.22473.22441369.9535087190235.5867278305640.43751008424145162112124WETL
2024-02-07 23:00:03FORECAST2024133-15232.86417.85225.35894.80072902513400.167.087.24TT0.86470.86441369.1463088296434.9953391939870.42009117503504162112124WETL
2024-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2024133-15232.97218.35625.66494.80534239305400.167.087.24TT0.97271.97241369.1489893392834.9972963283610.42530205194717162112124WETL
2024-02-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024133-15232.57619.41825.99794.77804731231900.157.087.23TT0.57672.57641369.1331295951634.9857172213150.40626617968738162112124WETL
2024-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024133-15233.00820.15626.58295.0327281898400.217.087.29TT1.00874.00841369.2810686100635.0937874188740.42704196166264162112124WETL
2024-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2024133-15232.55822.56827.56395.84119801273100.277.087.35TT0.55871.55841369.7500589340135.4372886135140.40540579501354162112124WETL
2024-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2024133-15232.46821.84827.15895.87405228241300.287.087.36TT0.46873.46841369.7690972168535.4512617589880.4011108025384162112124WETL
2024-02-06 23:00:04FORECAST2024133-15232.75621.5627.15891.4834607356800.36.927.22TT0.75673.75641367.2107188654833.5937073810510.41489426617972162112124WETL
2024-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024133-15233.96223.32428.64391.49896343709700.36.927.22TT1.96273.96241367.2198025065333.6002312829230.47356307446566162112124WETL
2024-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2024133-15232.77421.79427.28491.6780175994800.336.927.25TT0.77472.77441367.3246914469433.6755995271960.41575941018741162112124WETL
2024-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2024133-15232.34221.43426.88891.8690575762700.316.927.23TT0.34273.34241367.4365490238233.7560494778950.39511794066994162112124WETL
2024-02-06 07:00:07FORECAST2024133-15231.6421.9226.7891.56691556372600.256.917.16TT-0.3670.6441367.259614104133.6288300746360.362217960784162112124WETL
2024-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024133-15230.93820.91225.92591.52125148676300.216.927.13TT-1.06269.93841367.232861322633.6096110553090.33030540925967162112124WETL
2024-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024133-15230.3819.90425.14290.039739389500.126.836.95TT-1.6269.3841366.3632162566832.987248513650.3057776631146162112124WETL
2024-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2024133-15230.84819.68825.26890.55044799127500.26.847.04TT-1.15268.84841366.6633710150333.2015325074020.32629603491894162112124WETL
2024-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024133-15229.96620.28225.12491.7368620327570.0673228710.3673228716.927.287322871TT-2.03462.96641367.359151777933.700375823120.28811850734816162112124WETL
2024-02-05 11:00:05FORECAST2024133-15230.00218.84224.42293.5998049003690.1374016490.5674016496.847.407401649TT-1.99865.00241368.4474653148634.4866108695070.28963484643423162113126WETL
2024-02-05 07:00:08FORECAST2024133-15228.34617.6923.01892.27801754089900.266.867.12TT-3.65460.34641367.6758205545533.9283958184970.22404250711172161112123WETL
2024-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2024133-15228.86819.41824.14392.0461563363880.0125984320.2725984326.817.082598432TT-3.13265.86841367.5401952806433.8306622747080.24376198247412161112123WETL
2024-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2024133-15230.18220.46225.32291.3845422337150.0244094620.1744094626.766.934409462TT-1.81864.18241367.1527502105933.5520860078440.29727209981912162112124WETL
2024-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2024133-15230.79420.87625.83590.973668934760.066929170.146929176.716.85692917TT-1.20664.79441366.9118124842433.3793137571940.32389996567162112124WETL
2024-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2024133-15229.28219.90424.59390.5355243372700.096.676.76TT-2.71864.28241366.6546055744733.195266966360.26004322335733162111122WETL
2024-02-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024133-15230.9219.34625.13391.25554913630400.146.786.92TT-1.0865.9241367.0771352256533.4978255503980.3295019565327162112124WETL
2024-02-04 07:00:08FORECAST2024133-15231.98219.90425.94391.65742066359300.116.917.02TT-0.01800000000000166.98241367.3126283034833.6669280874620.37813610995351162112124WETL
2024-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2024133-15228.61617.8723.24393.0479056263850.1755906460.3055906466.97.205590646TT-3.38458.61641368.1255876538834.2533149386750.23412736585879161112123WETL
2024-02-03 23:00:05FORECAST2024133-15229.53419.36424.44993.6859004527790.267716680.447716686.987.42771668TT-2.46661.53441368.4976371293334.5230329491830.27022079336313162112124WETL
2024-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024133-15229.2119.05824.13493.6234556056010.2665355770.4265355776.977.396535577TT-2.7957.2141368.4612487550834.4966153652060.25717203033684162112124WETL
2024-02-03 15:00:04FORECAST2024133-15229.46218.37423.91894.465973445810.267716680.397716687.167.55771668TT-2.53860.46241368.9517216156334.8533835369280.26729273553757162112124WETL
2024-02-03 11:00:05FORECAST2024133-15227.30216.0721.68692.2120622409690.1665355230.1665355236.987.146535523TT-4.69853.30241367.6372486815333.900588857520.18744583404504161112123WETL
2024-02-03 07:00:09FORECAST2024133-15231.53221.59626.56497.3726666779830.5996066231.3596066236.587.939606623TT-0.46866.53241370.6358224316536.0897983965570.35723877439299162114128WETL
2024-02-03 03:00:09FORECAST2024133-15229.85818.71624.28797.3571129538570.5909452011.1909452016.617.800945201TT-2.14253.85841370.6268438513236.0831595005640.28359208496635162114128WETL
2024-02-02 23:00:05FORECAST2024133-15232.14422.67627.4198.5555455137490.4106301431.1906301436.677.860630143TT0.14459.14441371.3176156945236.5954101736390.3857510048565162114128WETL
2024-02-02 19:00:04FORECAST2024133-15232.23423.48627.86109.028440904571.5350401992.7350401996.619.345040199TT0.23451.23441377.2655075313741.1326700932160.390000811141441621151210WETL
2024-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2024133-15233.74624.38629.066106.204562307271.3232290612.3832290616.639.013229061TT1.74661.74641375.6772841001639.898641526640.46297514462761621151210WETL
2024-02-02 11:00:05FORECAST2024133-15231.6423.23427.437107.565046874841.3594495532.4294495536.689.109449553TT-0.3644.6441376.4438784656440.4922034329020.3622179607841621151210WETL
2024-02-02 07:00:07FORECAST2024133-15231.62224.6228.12195.586666182570.704724790.984724796.387.36472479TT-0.37853.62241369.6025098310935.3290717274650.36138644965752162113126WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:07FORECAST2024133-15232.2725.41228.84196.8505112050860.7748035681.1248035686.467.584803568TT0.2755.2741370.3342076891935.8670573314280.39170445258572162114128WETL
2024-02-01 23:00:05FORECAST2024133-15230.54224.8927.71698.848115938130.7421263851.2221263856.277.492126385TT-1.45849.54241371.4859330590436.7206845804040.31281576456557162114128WETL
2024-02-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024133-15230.14622.71226.42997.7965978902020.696850771.066850776.217.27685077TT-1.85450.14641370.8804054471836.2708418768730.29573731156349162114128WETL
2024-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024133-15231.62220.85826.2489.633089645257006.336.33TF-0.37844.62241366.1239405955132.8168199886720.36138644965752162111122WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:05FORECAST2024133-15228.8516.77222.81190.57571640316006.496.49TF-3.1550.8541366.6782117140333.2121417154280.24306678302344161111121.5WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:08FORECAST2024133-15236.80621.5629.18390.372917265363006.416.41TF4.80659.80641366.5590764213533.1270130862950.61188964811806163111122.5WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:08FORECAST2024133-15241.8122.26232.03690.685695061439006.526.52TF9.8164.8141366.7427935268733.2583251397580.81624847462056164111123WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:04FORECAST2024133-15227.62624.42226.02494.09611778362700.056.446.49TF-4.37452.62641368.7365389010934.6966767955640.19838829439582161111121.5WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:04FORECAST2024133-15234.32225.23229.77794.7147330009600.046.576.61TF2.32254.32241369.0963367259334.9588609846290.491247501188162111122WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:04FORECAST2024133-15234.44830.03832.24396.5586548589810.0724409840.2324409846.646.872440984TT2.44865.44841370.1654471821335.7426776551790.4974429025898162112124WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:06FORECAST2024133-15233.830.25432.02792.1576734507970.1196851040.1196851046.226.339685104TF1.889.841367.6054362545133.8776617530810.46561996446387162112124WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:09FORECAST2024133-15228.56222.65825.6194.5848958635810.1783465530.2283465536.496.718346553TT-3.43864.56241369.0208679621734.903800367690.23209054203187161112123WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:07FORECAST2024133-15227.98627.82427.90591.9270153161230.0562992430.0762992436.336.406299243TF-4.01450.98641367.4704736641633.7804638607490.21098729368841161111121.5WETL