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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 1, 2024

[ Wednesday, January 31, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, February 2, 2024 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/02/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.804
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 103

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 89 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.70 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-02 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024124-16140.2400431.2699235.7549889.0483783333330.150000000000091.340000000000110.8512.19TT8.24004103.2400432357.7036266562 31.8529278776860.803936219066316 41141212WETL
2024-02-02 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024124-16140.2400431.2699235.7549889.0483783333330.150000000000091.340000000000110.8512.19TT8.24004103.2400432357.7036266562 31.8529278776860.803936219066316 41141212WETL
2024-02-01 11:00:01FORECAST2024124-16133.90826.00629.95789.018115482840.0177165451.20771654510.8512.057716545TT1.90896.90832357.6851626181531.8404591124410.560439770287581631141210WETL
2024-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2024124-16134.05227.1430.59689.5113996191920.0437008111.23370081110.8512.083700811TT2.05297.05232357.9859493329232.0438233687950.566741904999061631141210WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:06FORECAST2024124-16133.63828.00430.82189.6116276837360.0791339011.26913390110.8512.119133901TT1.63896.63832358.0470187063232.0851761335830.548583130456841631141210WETL
2024-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2024124-16133.90828.34631.12792.4626780182560.1582678021.21826780210.8512.068267802TT1.90888.90832359.7776803280633.2660078143280.560439770287581631141210WETL
2024-01-31 19:00:01FORECAST2024124-16134.73628.83231.78492.3185965694950.1240158151.18401581510.8512.034015815TT2.73689.73632359.6905194976933.2061239593790.59641947922161631141210WETL
2024-01-31 15:00:01FORECAST2024124-16134.6128.63431.62292.3389145444820.1283465261.18834652610.8512.038346526TT2.6189.6132359.7028126135133.2145672753290.590988769069781631141210WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2024124-16134.84429.17432.00991.9747117015040.0531496351.11314963510.8511.963149635TT2.84489.84432359.4823603459633.0632864545960.60105966843361631141210WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:06FORECAST2024124-16134.53828.25631.39791.2858626589960.0523622331.22236223310.8512.072362233TT2.53887.53832359.0648414334632.7775438007690.587877575540351631141210WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2024124-16134.30428.3131.30791.3307633689860.0397638011.20976380110.8512.059763801TT2.30487.30432359.0920785054732.796153649660.577728977232681631141210WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2024124-16134.3428.23831.28992.2394490321570.1283465261.12834652610.8511.978346526TT2.3480.3432359.6426263016233.1732376985390.579293841292451631141210WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2024124-16134.89828.47231.68591.8567843326910.1204725061.08047250610.8511.930472506TT2.89880.89832359.410935098433.0143327521440.603374463775891631141210WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2024124-16134.75428.2231.48792.0298390766080.0586614491.00866144910.8511.858661449TT2.75480.75432359.5157420889733.0861758899560.597193806143911631141210WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2024124-16133.67428.02230.84892.7705961717780.1500000810.95000008110.8511.800000081TT1.67481.67432359.9638458672733.3940605813930.55016675893711163113127.5WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2024124-16133.04427.4130.22792.4815766742710.2586615571.12866155710.8511.978661557TT1.04481.04432359.7891105409133.2738642130570.522360307936591631141210WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:06FORECAST2024124-16135.88829.10232.49591.6925436187260.251968641.1319686410.8511.98196864TT3.88885.88832359.3114235228432.9461783740750.645090487246271631141210WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2024124-16132.91827.17630.04796.5095871537760.4492128411.44921284110.8512.299212841TT0.91876.91832362.2128380642634.9570114633790.516781540324821631141210WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2024124-16133.13427.82430.47996.7976819744840.4858270341.33582703410.8512.185827034TT1.13474.13432362.3852416141635.0780513700140.526342524863831631141210WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024124-16132.95428.1330.54296.7536288358820.4893703431.37937034310.8512.229370343TT0.95473.95432362.3588872224235.0595372797010.518375857129681631141210WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024124-16133.45827.03230.24596.157778579650.4271655851.13716558510.8511.987165585TT1.45876.45832362.0021353554334.8093211768680.54065388539981631141210WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:08FORECAST2024124-16133.0827.66230.37195.7171151329770.5204727221.08047272210.8511.930472722TT1.0876.0832361.7379505560734.6245130613420.52395348500771631141210WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024124-16133.00827.51830.26396.561187407570.5342522571.02425225710.8511.874252257TT1.00875.00832362.2437262941634.9786843419070.520766773437171631141210WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024124-16133.1727.6830.425100.93774039330.4492128411.29921284111.1412.439212841TT1.1767.1732364.8488793541436.8270214670350.527934697251631141210WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2024124-16133.94428.27431.109100.570966096940.4039372261.29393722611.1212.413937226TT1.94470.94432364.6316662028336.6713589395570.562016804931521631141210WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024124-16134.86228.95831.9199.6281191377310.4267718841.31677188411.1412.456771884TT2.86274.86232364.0723584447236.2718443018850.601831666154921631141210WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:04FORECAST2024124-16133.27826.99630.13799.8236011843940.3055119761.35551197611.1212.475511976TT1.27869.27832364.1884307550536.3546006676620.532708435472031631141210WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:07FORECAST2024124-16132.3626.58229.47199.476626029950.2500001351.21000013511.1212.330000135TT0.3666.3632363.9823660103236.2077377051050.49205107438088162114128WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:06FORECAST2024124-16133.29627.75230.52499.5735765178340.2444883211.24448832111.1812.424488321TT1.29665.29632364.0399621273836.248761024440.533503620019411631141210WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:04FORECAST2024124-16133.74625.95229.849110.278064624960.2417324141.19173241411.8713.061732414TT1.74662.74632370.3128122417240.8373802398420.553331595577491631141210WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:11FORECAST2024124-16133.65625.9729.813108.846543055810.2692914841.33929148411.9413.279291484TT1.65662.65632369.4837841961840.2170326249330.549375042947541631141210WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:04FORECAST2024124-16132.0922.31627.203111.900697838150.2968505541.29685055411.8613.156850554TT0.09000000000000357.0932371.2488798663241.5430087286720.48008981554183162114128WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:04FORECAST2024124-16132.93626.43829.687109.654686658480.3787403621.28874036211.6412.928740362TT0.93663.93632369.9521697907540.5669892570310.517578733865991631141210WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:05FORECAST2024124-16132.55826.65429.606110.535766845590.3350395511.28503955111.5512.835039551TT0.55866.55832370.4617337952140.9492718319990.500827818243521631141210WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2024124-16132.4527.01429.732106.962485701850.0909449310.82094493111.9512.770944931TT0.4560.4532368.3880774338739.4037044652530.49604028177162113126WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:04FORECAST2024124-16133.11626.43829.777112.142669575770.3015749661.34157496612.2613.601574966TT1.11654.11632371.3881387071741.6484573233980.525546279243651631141210WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024124-16132.43226.2429.336112.306969678120.4145671531.15456715312.1113.264567153TT0.43254.43232371.4826474273741.7200904205740.49524239584616162114128WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2024124-16132.9927.44630.218112.950500534090.4039372261.11393722612.0913.203937226TT0.9956.9932371.8524397634942.000919196110.519969880096251631141210WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024124-16132.2725.3428.805109.411477946960.0220472560.91204725612.4413.352047256TT0.2755.2732369.8113114864940.4616021512430.48806266185576162113126WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:07FORECAST2024124-16133.0827.44630.263110.52530103730.1248032171.43480321712.2313.664803217TT1.0855.0832370.4556876886140.9447264027620.52395348500771631141210WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:08FORECAST2024124-16132.16226.97829.57110.572191161610.0129921331.08299213312.3313.412992133TT0.16250.16232370.482774901440.9650922084830.48327817728782162114128WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:04FORECAST2024124-16132.2726.9629.615107.429333551720.0129921331.15299213312.4413.592992133TT0.2750.2732368.6600698933839.6049056157760.48806266185576162114128WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:04FORECAST2024124-16132.16226.97829.57108.113773924780.0129921331.08299213312.4513.532992133TT0.16249.16232369.0582523779739.9002804626650.48327817728782162114128WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:04FORECAST2024124-16134.95228.83231.892107.205535832290.0633858611.19338586111.4212.613385861TT2.95255.95232368.5297222802439.5084263471780.605685622562741631141210WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2024124-16135.11428.2231.667110.277003896060.1484252770.93842527711.6612.598425277TT3.11462.11432370.3121990637940.8369198189160.61259650852677163113127.5WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:10FORECAST2024124-16134.95228.83231.892109.337908268510.0633858611.19338586111.4212.613385861TT2.95258.95232369.7686852587640.4297345893880.605685622562741631141210WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:08FORECAST2024124-16134.95228.83231.892109.337908268510.0633858611.19338586111.4212.613385861TT2.95258.95232369.7686852587640.4297345893880.605685622562741631141210WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:03FORECAST2024124-16134.95228.83231.892108.202356958970.0633858611.19338586111.5612.753385861TT2.95257.95232369.1097361865439.9385434318870.605685622562741631141210WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:03FORECAST2024124-16134.95228.83231.892108.880687602230.0633858611.19338586111.5612.753385861TT2.95254.95232369.5035932241240.2318053017380.605685622562741631141210WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024124-16134.26828.16631.217113.7814081147401.0711.5312.6TT2.26860.26832372.32901124742.3641191816540.576162885397141631141210WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:05FORECAST2024124-16130.99225.4328.211115.547536681850.0177165451.40771654511.7713.177716545TT-1.00851.99232373.3386488661143.1383612246080.43174403735196162114128WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2024124-16131.02825.66428.346113.585322341650.0326771831.57267718311.8213.392677183TT-0.97254.02832372.2166358598442.2783465650650.433317027701391621151210WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024124-16132.61222.06427.338119.348248604430.2311024872.47110248711.8214.291102487TT0.61250.61232375.4960905780844.8148007683060.503221584866161631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2024124-16134.75424.00829.381118.355605859760.6342523112.45425231111.2513.704252311TT2.75458.75432374.934633298144.3756156818040.597193806143911631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:04FORECAST2024124-16138.98430.0234.502119.918916066170.7811027842.33110278410.3212.651102784TT6.98453.98432375.8182304846845.0677148376290.763051309458421641151215WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024124-16138.98430.0234.502119.918916066170.7811027842.33110278410.3212.651102784TT6.98453.98432375.8182304846845.0677148376290.763051309458421641151215WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:06FORECAST2024124-16143.12429.55236.338114.642027056480.3748033521.71480335210.0811.794803352TT11.12456.12432372.8215645876342.7410198946940.88029994386161651151217.5WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024124-16143.12428.27435.699122.870375657120.3748033521.71480335210.111.814803352TT11.12454.12432377.4768875196446.3807269714190.88029994386161651151217.5WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:07FORECAST2024124-16138.67832.2735.474121.219233677850.5149609081.6049609089.0110.614960908TT6.67850.67832376.5505136878445.6451647102430.752425779807261641151215WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:05FORECAST2024124-16133.58431.13632.36116.937711241740.1870079751.0470079759.0310.077007975TT1.58445.58432374.1301864397343.7499277087070.546206245184521631141210WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:04FORECAST2024124-16135.94231.58633.764118.54616943680.1866142741.0466142748.9810.026614274TT3.94244.94232375.0425294411344.4598552411350.647321710258381631141210WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:06FORECAST2024124-16134.26830.5632.414113.0632766141401.059.3210.37TT2.26846.26832371.9171820949642.0501752367520.576162885397141631141210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:05FORECAST2024124-16136.6832.64834.664117.004258529920.0641732631.2241732639.0210.244173263TT4.6851.6832374.1680070798743.7792502339990.677280312117341631141210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024124-16136.6832.64834.664121.719697005750.0641732631.0841732639.0410.124173263TT4.6850.6832376.8317092687145.8678414743450.677280312117341631141210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:09FORECAST2024124-16134.86234.84434.853116.574626565800.248.78.94TT2.86248.86232373.9237228791843.5900183587330.60183166615492163112125WETL