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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 9, 2024

[ Monday, January 8, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 10, 2024 ]

DAY 101 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/10/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.06°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.437
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 96 in
SWE DAY: 9
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 32.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -184

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-10 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024101-18431.2000818.9100425.0550696.4384554166672.013.626.039.65TT-0.7999219.200089340.64031678868 32.8508260037440.4369549431171416 21151210WETL
2024-01-10 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024101-18431.2000818.9100425.0550696.4384554166672.013.626.039.65TT-0.7999219.200089340.64031678868 32.8508260037440.4369549431171416 21151210WETL
2024-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2024101-18428.07616.6122.34393.6742680984222.767718034.377718036.0310.40771803TT-3.92416.0769338.8277316794331.7394397765190.298357997737661621151210WETL
2024-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2024101-18427.84216.73622.28993.850539994192.7421274654.3521274656.0310.382127465TT-4.15815.8429338.9437003022331.8100493009930.288805774736371621151210WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:05FORECAST2024101-18428.05818.30223.1893.9819645250632.7724424424.3824424426.0310.412442442TT-3.94216.0589339.030130229431.8627176721460.297618132947111621151210WETL
2024-01-08 23:00:01FORECAST2024101-18429.19218.46423.82892.984657616122.7724424424.5824424426.0310.612442442TT-2.80816.1929338.3735402744631.4635477887750.345758490684491621151210WETL
2024-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.24618.9524.09892.8922941571042.8251983764.6351983766.0310.665198376TT-2.75416.2469338.3126473976331.4266379591290.348122524778021621151210WETL
2024-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2024101-18429.7520.04824.89992.6948340893082.8291353864.6391353866.0310.669135386TT-2.2516.759338.1824190763931.3477632282070.370460790646771621151210WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.91219.34624.62998.3245316807062.7712613394.5812613396.0310.611261339TT-2.08816.9129341.8698063310233.6141886032720.377739010100581621151210WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2024101-18429.60618.26623.93698.9440980528062.7590566084.5190566086.0310.549056608TT-2.39415.6069342.2724038179233.8658342841290.364029854505651621151210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024101-18428.74217.31223.02799.2862993513072.7433085684.4833085686.0310.513308568TT-3.25814.7429342.4944965655734.0050111121850.326298952915931621151210WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.4818.21223.84694.0533688260082.5645683144.0445683146.0310.074568314TT-2.5211.489339.0770764041331.8913413274820.358433941749791621151210WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2024101-18430.3820.15625.26893.4013474837742.5208675033.9508675036.039.980867503TT-1.6212.389338.6480757629531.6301865990470.399001474176021621151210WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024101-18430.18219.70624.94494.1311436679682.6523636374.0523636376.0310.082363637TT-1.81813.1829339.1282013305731.9225254413070.389965171368831621151210WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2024101-18430.00219.6724.83695.4205664248742.9547260054.2547260056.0310.284726005TT-1.99813.0029339.974327251432.4405428762440.381801483372861621151210WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:03FORECAST2024101-18429.82219.4924.65695.6233266629282.9358283574.1658283576.0310.195828357TT-2.17811.8229340.1071276114932.5221749639840.373690010567081621151210WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2024101-18430.8319.2225.02596.6450535399082.9759858594.3459858596.0310.375985859TT-1.1713.839340.7752807678332.9342452548850.419733562925681621151210WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18431.38820.22825.80884.1585621221982.7102376843.9302376845.729.650237684TT-0.61213.3889332.4896963550327.9818547656850.445747750527641621151210WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:03FORECAST2024101-18431.13619.7625.44885.4949197231432.8330723964.1430723965.729.863072396TT-0.86412.1369333.3890641224728.5030712737240.43396351153551621151210WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2024101-18431.17221.36226.26785.1402723421832.7881904824.3181904825.7210.038190482TT-0.82814.1729333.150684170728.3645399812780.435643636934921621151210WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024101-18431.62219.79625.70992.3148859050752.8523637454.5523637455.7210.272363745TT-0.37812.6229337.9316528654431.1961219779860.456733569489681621151210WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2024101-18432.41419.47225.94391.5865591743332.9216551214.4716551215.710.171655121TT0.41413.4149337.4502793274930.9059099760220.494112780079361621151210WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024101-18432.41420.60626.5191.5345845456362.811025144.691025145.5210.21102514TT0.41415.4149337.415893642930.8852236436980.494112780079361621151210WETL
2024-01-05 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18430.27219.83225.05294.5596125803533.03149774.69149776.0610.7514977TT-1.72812.2729339.4096723434632.0944471228220.3940655354691621151210WETL
2024-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.76819.09424.43193.9196852718343.0976394684.5876394685.9610.547639468TT-2.2329.7689338.9891765459531.8377567717530.371267250812211621151210WETL
2024-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.85818.93224.39592.2487615843332.9129936994.3729936995.7110.082993699TT-2.1428.8589337.8879860133531.1697482639560.375307966909961621151210WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2024101-18430.0218.71624.36891.3757781322532.4283477683.9483477685.649.588347768TT-1.9812.029337.3108014203430.8220369521970.382615558094191621151210WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:08FORECAST2024101-18429.9319.70624.81891.1927418134932.3625997013.9625997015.629.582599701TT-2.077.939337.1896221431130.7492461542860.378550440195591621151210WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024101-18427.73419.81423.77491.2942481236812.468505273.688505275.759.43850527TT-4.2668.7349337.2568313997430.7896088472140.284446100071061621151210WETL
2024-01-04 23:00:04FORECAST2024101-18427.8619.61623.73884.7034929996831.6507882932.9507882935.648.590788293TT-4.1411.869332.8568031206328.1941338930250.289535430925351621151210WETL
2024-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2024101-18426.43819.47222.95584.3361261403781.6480323862.8680323865.68.468032386TT-5.5629.4389332.6093727579728.0509860163880.23472429748925161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024101-18425.62819.5822.60485.5851358757381.7271662872.8771662875.648.517166287TT-6.3721.6289333.449669602128.5383352806160.20626542545738161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024101-18428.09421.09224.59384.1758402029621.3448826162.7748826165.468.234882616TT-3.90610.0949332.5013439823227.9885799983260.299098697784731621151210WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2024101-18423.07218.93221.00283.7623555831191.2838589612.6438589615.58.143858961TT-8.9285.0729332.2224623736527.8277360260410.1307762868404161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:08FORECAST2024101-18424.29619.41821.85788.3328258773241.7570875633.3070875635.418.717087563TT-7.704-1.7049335.2888780200329.6170140807460.16416887826653161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18426.76217.2422.00186.6267965798282.0740168683.1140168685.058.164016868TT-5.238-4.2389334.1484322890528.9462082713720.24668734527816161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024101-18429.64219.38224.51285.053303778842.0185050273.0985050275.188.278505027TT-2.3584.6429333.0921945469428.3305916091620.365634085617811621151210WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.1218.66223.89187.4184462955042.3685052163.2685052165.148.408505216TT-2.884.129334.6782485239829.2570524948670.342615785160071621151210WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024101-18429.10218.87823.9986.3082902988652.4531509313.1231509314.918.033150931TT-2.8986.1029333.9349693657428.8213562769610.341831796642151621151210WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2024101-18426.76219.36423.06386.2994606864382.4787414963.1487414964.958.098741496TT-5.2384.7629333.9290492987128.8178968620140.24668734527816161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024101-18428.47217.61823.04588.6998158147472.3035445513.0035445515.568.563544551TT-3.5283.4729335.5335580861329.7617648019060.314841953737771621151210WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18427.69821.50624.60290.5252484264192.1169302772.4669302776.438.896930277TT-4.302-3.3029336.7472301950530.4841266703160.282999886335191621151210WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:06FORECAST2024101-18429.2121.18225.19689.6344252128032.0791349812.4391349816.398.829134981TT-2.791.219336.1556531573530.1311187527930.34654583993711621151210WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024101-18430.95624.04427.587.9846248408492.1287413072.4787413076.098.568741307TT-1.0444.9569335.0565139594729.4798216812070.425581358641881621151210WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024101-18430.4720.8425.65589.3603861386292.3000012422.4800012425.648.120001242TT-1.53-7.539335.9734001619330.0227127707780.403127163205391621151210WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:10FORECAST2024101-18429.1221.97425.54790.0865059398172.3322847242.4922847245.978.462284724TT-2.88-6.889336.4560377802730.310148845980.342615785160071621151210WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024101-18428.16620.62424.39580.5237817364811.4866149761.6366149764.976.606614976TT-3.834-8.8349330.0279914482326.5751019503060.302069801840561621151210WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024101-18423.50418.6821.09274.8297835786760.8444886451.0144886454.515.524488645TF-8.496-12.4969326.1256730137424.4039135310680.14198285619359161114126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:03FORECAST2024101-18423.37818.91421.14675.303824561820.9169296291.0969296294.435.526929629TF-8.622-13.6229326.4527097972724.5831375863040.1386493079362161114126WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024101-18426.25821.6523.95478.7926234403661.0574808861.3474808865.016.357480886TT-5.742-9.7429328.8475267359625.9107593434030.22821909969366161114126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:06FORECAST2024101-18423.48617.16820.32780.3434832127320.8803154361.4003154365.116.510315436TT-8.514-12.5149329.9052891577626.5057400612380.14150335051534161114126WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:08FORECAST2024101-18426.11420.71423.41478.7370880994860.8838587451.3838587455.066.443858745TT-5.8864.1149328.8095715801825.8895082054630.22308862646835161114126WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:06FORECAST2024101-18428.05823.77425.91678.3618560198011.4129928891.7829928894.226.002992889TT-3.9425.0589328.5529820660825.7460214755380.297618132947111621151210WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18426.43817.40221.9277.4840564401641.287402271.417402273.835.24740227TF-5.562-2.5629327.9517730282525.4110336909730.23472429748925161114126WETL
2023-12-31 19:00:03FORECAST2024101-18429.76819.77824.77376.9189509720871.3374022971.4674022973.865.327402297TF-2.2329.7689327.5640197938925.1958807787460.37126725081221162114128WETL
2023-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST2024101-18430.39819.54424.97176.1286810696051.3015755061.4015755063.755.151575506TF-1.6025.3989327.0208333037424.8956647216970.39982572602844162114128WETL
2023-12-31 11:00:05FORECAST2024101-18431.83821.84826.84367.9590877494480.4129923490.4629923493.764.222992349TF-0.1622.8389321.3411578115421.8380519412240.4669039561369162112124WETL
2023-12-31 07:00:07FORECAST2024101-18426.74418.69822.72167.8978513881220.4129923490.4629923493.64.062992349TF-5.256-12.2569321.2981384047421.8154532526860.24601428845494161112123WETL
2023-12-31 03:00:09FORECAST2024101-18424.49419.99422.24474.8240405175980.7708665581.0108665583.784.790866558TF-7.506-15.5069326.1217085107624.4017439312780.17004822104438161114126WETL
2023-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST2024101-18427.525.2526.37577.2505178677580.6744098131.1644098133.794.954409813TF-4.50.59327.7915954834325.3220705037940.27510936795494162114128WETL
2023-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024101-18426.13222.4624.29678.4207183339390.6937011621.1937011623.84.993701162TF-5.868-1.8689328.5932492033325.7685186422080.22372632810109161114126WETL
2023-12-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024101-18424.42218.46421.44375.0402581017640.5208664230.9108664233.524.430866423TF-7.578-16.5789326.2709261762524.4834545113680.16789488526087161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST2024101-18421.68617.63619.66177.9014094638250.248031630.878031633.874.74803163TF-10.314-17.3149328.2377872232225.5701862639760.098994493419196161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 07:00:07FORECAST2024101-18424.51221.43422.97377.9404027948890.248031630.878031633.844.71803163TF-7.488-16.4889328.264494071625.5850668912010.17058930184929161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 03:00:06FORECAST2024101-18420.80420.33620.5780.3729050480730.1055118680.9955118684.045.035511868TF-11.196-15.1969329.9253160459226.5170560995140.081947776021095161114126WETL