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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 8, 2024

[ Sunday, January 7, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 ]

DAY 100 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/09/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.17°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.436
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 26

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.16 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 82 in
SWE DAY: 8
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -185

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-09 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024100-18532.7099219.1699625.9399482.2865808333331.513.234.938.16TT0.7099225.709928330.20941586865 27.1718037908030.4355540039026816 21151210WETL
2024-01-09 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024100-18532.7099219.1699625.9399482.2865808333331.513.234.938.16TT0.7099225.709928330.20941586865 27.1718037908030.4355540039026816 21151210WETL
2024-01-08 11:00:01FORECAST2024100-18532.48617.27624.88186.8364703122281.7090560413.4290560414.938.359056041TT0.48625.4868333.2852333893728.941313274720.425358860232441621151210WETL
2024-01-08 07:00:04FORECAST2024100-18531.04616.14223.59487.0792608665991.6578749113.3778749114.938.307874911TT-0.95424.0468333.4483678360129.0364374083330.361259473620691621151210WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:05FORECAST2024100-18530.70416.05223.37887.1465083182141.6374024593.3574024594.938.287402459TT-1.29623.7048333.4935345722529.0627970846710.346520513761461621151210WETL
2024-01-07 23:00:01FORECAST2024100-18531.15416.0723.61282.5882692815171.476378753.096378754.938.02637875TT-0.84620.1548330.4144655535727.2883588556460.365958227462541621151210WETL
2024-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-18531.42415.96223.69382.3696592730261.4314968363.0514968364.937.981496836TT-0.57620.4248330.2658977718227.2038894689650.377791975910151621151210WETL
2024-01-07 15:00:02FORECAST2024100-18532.05415.31423.68482.1129189136851.3964574473.0164574474.937.946457447TT0.05400000000000221.0548330.0913111642927.1047610677450.405835841221741621151210WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2024100-18532.16214.88223.52281.7910307999741.3043314132.9243314134.937.854331413TT0.16221.1628329.8722623682426.9805923714180.410696696035221621151210WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:03FORECAST2024100-18531.26214.75623.00981.8813524021251.2255912132.8455912134.937.775591213TT-0.73820.2628329.9337453998427.0154212764370.370677163894451621151210WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:04FORECAST2024100-18531.53215.47623.50482.5737439421961.366142472.986142474.937.91614247TT-0.46820.5328330.4045966634127.2827445622090.382558484347811621151210WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2024100-18532.01817.11424.56670.8971188919821.2185045952.5285045954.937.458504595TT0.01800000000000120.0188322.3522292736222.8538443239070.404218736925761621151210WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-1853216.05224.02671.3864649487731.3137802372.6237802374.937.553780237TT0198322.6945055815323.0360200118580.403410796087321621151210WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2024100-18532.84616.37624.61171.9867934228071.5346464982.8446464984.937.774646498TT0.84620.8468323.1138285852923.2599284304210.441771207282971621151210WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2024100-18531.4615.6223.5478.4924537796611.6980324133.0080324134.937.938032413TT-0.5419.468327.6171888763925.7154770553030.379378786539261621151210WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST2024100-18532.05416.91624.48577.4285997322841.5535441462.8435441464.937.773544146TT0.05400000000000219.0548326.8858458929425.3103133197930.405835841221741621151210WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:05FORECAST2024100-18531.96418.73425.34977.7897108242471.8653553382.9853553384.937.915355338TT-0.03600000000000120.9648327.1343121176625.4476835403220.401796153556971621151210WETL
2024-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST2024100-18531.60417.54624.57578.4047150805071.6618119213.0918119215.158.241811921TT-0.39619.6048327.5569479379825.6820091757180.385746116648471621151210WETL
2024-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-18530.217.58223.89177.2598101443721.4818905642.8218905645.157.971890564TT-1.818.28326.7696302892525.2461595970940.325222174893311621151210WETL
2024-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST2024100-18530.7416.14223.44176.1689297811271.4633866172.5433866175.157.693386617TT-1.2616.748326.0173306987924.8323911694260.348061552034361621151210WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST2024100-18530.63214.97222.80277.9617865523971.4472448762.5272448765.157.677244876TT-1.36819.6328327.252630454325.5131997241890.3434460632441621151210WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:08FORECAST2024100-18529.7515.20622.47878.5452958867661.5401583122.6001583125.147.740158312TT-2.2515.758327.6534635176325.7356382403160.306673794073831621151210WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:05FORECAST2024100-18529.85816.46623.16277.363164024351.1633864552.2633864555.237.493386455TT-2.14218.8588326.8407977816925.2854382486340.311082857534081621151210WETL
2024-01-04 23:00:04FORECAST2024100-18531.76617.85224.80974.5981746945681.255906192.285906195.177.45590619TT-0.23421.7668324.9304287666824.2392168887180.392946248365511621151210WETL
2024-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-18531.31615.85423.58574.2542840955731.1937014322.2137014325.137.343701432TT-0.68421.3168324.6918905622524.1097638853380.373043996282021621151210WETL
2024-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2024100-18528.43615.47621.95674.7385300859191.0960635842.1160635845.197.306063584TT-3.56414.4368325.0277258098524.2920944641980.255396211989821621151210WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST2024100-18529.46217.99623.72976.1961088833291.3795283042.40952830457.409528304TT-2.53820.4628326.0360994491424.8426821335230.295053446319951621151210WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2024100-18530.86616.44823.65775.7827084997121.330709382.390709384.997.38070938TT-1.13419.8668325.7504823735624.6862538493560.353474816974181621151210WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:08FORECAST2024100-18528.95815.78222.3777.3148178319841.4692921322.5492921324.937.479292132TT-3.04211.9588326.8075098498225.2670630901630.275220890255441621151210WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:03FORECAST2024100-18527.8615.40421.63272.9687486001931.0405517431.7405517434.876.610551743TT-4.146.868323.7983369590123.6271594467230.23441819606681161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2024100-18530.2916.89823.59472.7665383267321.0779533381.8979533384.886.777953338TT-1.7113.298323.657518321423.5514372116690.328986331375181621151210WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2024100-18529.53417.20423.36972.0132229186620.9039374961.6939374964.876.563937496TT-2.46612.5348323.1322746144823.2697965240270.29793949665321621151210WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST2024100-18529.69618.01423.85570.2239648026620.6748035141.3048035144.86.104803514TT-2.30414.6968321.880691552222.6037383542180.30447964595592162114128WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2024100-18532.05417.9625.00769.9721031806150.6669294941.3369294944.86.136929494TT0.05400000000000216.0548321.7040576356622.5103095145050.40583584122174162114128WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:06FORECAST2024100-18530.70416.86223.78373.9663869311340.6972444711.6972444715.086.777244471TT-1.29612.7048324.4920316632424.0015031700730.346520513761461621151210WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2024100-18528.65216.0722.36175.9641984362590.35433091.99433095.317.3043309TT-3.3486.6528325.8759101538724.7549023045260.263508235866841621151210WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:05FORECAST2024100-18527.91414.8121.36275.4765549587770.3566931062.0066931065.267.266693106TT-4.0869.9148325.5387684389324.5705447472930.23634356509824161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2024100-18529.31817.54623.43274.2989583574750.3460631791.95606317956.956063179TT-2.68212.3188324.7228904448124.1265725148770.28932028155281621151210WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST2024100-18527.37414.14420.75973.1873442705280.1787402541.5287402544.816.338740254TT-4.6260.3748323.950485005723.7090756727160.21748525951837161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:10FORECAST2024100-18526.13213.31619.72474.3709266026170.1559055961.4959055965.156.645905596TT-5.8682.1328324.7728224769524.1536557429580.17755595655458161114126WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:06FORECAST2024100-18526.29414.30620.369.5074564380530.1452756690.8352756694.85.635275669TF-5.7061.2948321.3778980021622.3381602455380.18248543524185161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:04FORECAST2024100-18527.60819.68823.64867.5145266205720.1740158420.6340158424.575.204015842TF-4.3921.6088319.9745827572221.6029324854690.22554868535476161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-18527.46419.8523.65767.4296553012510.1830709650.6630709654.475.133070965TF-4.5361.4648319.9146630409521.5717354546670.22056674384093161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:03FORECAST2024100-18528.36420.96624.66570.5887355869010.2854332250.6454332255.175.815433225TF-3.6362.3648322.1363099166422.7391948036450.25272145881426162113126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:06FORECAST2024100-18524.42218.91421.66872.9466393873730.5185042170.8785042175.276.148504217TF-7.5782.4228323.7829436899123.618877633130.13070486685793161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:08FORECAST2024100-18527.80620.46224.13472.043063248420.4968506620.8468506625.236.076850662TF-4.19415.8068323.1530996904723.2809391999230.23250152334229161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:05FORECAST2024100-18526.1519.34622.74867.853020656280.3393702620.9893702624.125.109370262TF-5.8515.158320.2134333477521.7274487073630.1780994987417161113124.5WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2024100-18527.01417.61822.31664.7092349913940.0523622330.6323622333.854.482362233TF-4.9869.0148317.9871694779920.5767064740.20541008517691161113124.5WETL
2023-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST2024100-18530.1118.7724.4465.0298268827150.0523622330.6423622333.874.512362233TF-1.8918.118318.2150106701720.6934670553630.32147575561916162113126WETL
2023-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST2024100-18529.60617.72623.66664.6010589911920.0523622330.5923622333.784.372362233TF-2.39412.6068317.910248090720.5373386908120.30083833552699162113126WETL
2023-12-31 11:00:05FORECAST2024100-18526.29415.09820.69664.26117721590400.553.784.33TF-5.7069.2948317.6684286529820.4137471895670.18248543524185161113124.5WETL
2023-12-31 07:00:07FORECAST2024100-18521.0568.88814.97263.73274248041600.483.694.17TF-10.944-0.9448317.2920425076320.2218920362240.065023593475696161112123WETL
2023-12-31 03:00:08FORECAST2024100-18523.25210.8517.05166.7891666814130.1992127060.7192127063.824.539212706TF-8.748-1.7488319.4620570119221.3366045741570.1040425135265161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST2024100-18529.6621.03825.34970.5983175201170.4641734790.9941734793.814.804173479TF-2.3410.668322.1430214020922.7427553118350.30302076966252162114128WETL
2023-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST2024100-18527.5916.64622.11871.0324248361090.4653545821.0153545823.84.815354582TF-4.419.598322.446912460722.9041860730.22492248748805161114126WETL
2023-12-30 15:00:03FORECAST2024100-18525.66416.57421.11969.1404839215890.3606301160.8606301163.574.430630116TF-6.336-3.3368321.1200287700322.2023941860740.16379170204992161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST2024100-18527.12214.82820.97574.6870162345140.5307089481.2107089483.815.020708948TF-4.878-0.8788324.9920194513724.2726842328520.20899025250916161114126WETL
2023-12-30 07:00:06FORECAST2024100-18527.48216.39421.93875.0939585377740.5307089481.2107089483.784.990708948TF-4.518-2.5188325.2739605319424.4261093056030.2211860234182161114126WETL
2023-12-30 03:00:06FORECAST2024100-18527.51819.29223.40578.9798058409610.7736224651.4236224654.035.453622465TF-4.4821.5188327.9515580084725.901550376750.22242755657004161114126WETL
2023-12-29 23:00:04FORECAST2024100-18516.8449.24813.04675.953787254160.2468505271.0268505273.924.946850527TF-15.156-14.1568325.8687165442324.7509631691860.022530435215069161114126WETL
2023-12-29 19:00:04FORECAST2024100-18518.53613.1915.86372.7482386660880.2342520950.7642520953.834.594252095TF-13.464-6.4648323.644770922523.5445870381010.035379098286178161113124.5WETL
2023-12-29 15:00:04FORECAST2024100-18518.53613.1915.86372.7482386660880.2342520950.7642520953.834.594252095TF-13.464-6.4648323.644770922523.5445870381010.035379098286178161113124.5WETL
2023-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024100-18522.7317.90620.31865.79204677694100.13.843.94TF-9.27-1.278318.755967760320.9716075413150.093508975611769161112123DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:06FORECAST2024100-18517.02415.4416.23265.80181096783900.13.914.01TF-14.9764.0248318.7628907381220.9751754799120.023677419157651161112123WETL
2023-12-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024100-18516.05215.65615.85464.8543571948600.283.473.75TF-15.9480.0528318.0903292434720.6295438329860.018023742154221161112123DRYL