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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 7, 2024

[ Saturday, January 6, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, January 8, 2024 ]

DAY 99 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/08/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.166
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.10 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.02 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 7
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -186

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-08 07:00:04OBSERVATION202499-18624.3699819.1499821.7599881.1825804166670.100000000000022.024.636.65TT-7.6300240.369987328.43569361024 26.6632571082170.1657625393743216 1115127.5WETL
2024-01-08 03:00:04OBSERVATION202499-18624.3699819.1499821.7599881.1825804166670.100000000000022.024.636.65TT-7.6300240.369987328.43569361024 26.6632571082170.1657625393743216 1115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 11:00:01FORECAST202499-18619.79613.35216.5747701.924.636.55TT-12.20435.7967325.5577106140825.0679437172840.074969066897323161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 07:00:03FORECAST202499-18620.04812.59616.32277.312837501.924.636.55TT-11.95236.0487325.7740298159225.1865146288790.07869512021704161115127.5WETL
2024-01-07 03:00:03FORECAST202499-18620.10212.9216.51177.312837501.924.636.55TT-11.89836.1027325.7740298159225.1865146288790.07951145408003161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.72213.3717.5466601.614.636.24TT-10.27834.7227317.8411689440520.9775171503070.10706541999072161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.30813.40617.3576601.614.636.24TT-10.69234.3087317.8411689440520.9775171503070.099445504723138161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 15:00:01FORECAST202499-18622.22615.04418.6356601.614.636.24TT-9.77435.2267317.8411689440520.9775171503070.11689723317069161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.921417.9671.71802090360401.614.636.24TT-10.0834.927321.879284539223.0845452570190.11085454992908161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 07:00:04FORECAST202499-18620.94814.19817.57371.14669828134501.594.636.22TT-11.05233.9487321.47844369522.8721298375250.09314733291256161115127.5WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:04FORECAST202499-18622.6416.3419.4970.3276748792210.0133858341.4233858344.636.053385834TT-9.3635.647320.9028000036222.5683477864860.12543770898896161114126WETL
2024-01-05 23:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.97416.05219.01371.42335058210201.954.636.58TT-10.02634.9747321.6726160200822.9749360266640.11190437195594161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 19:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.79415.85418.82470.9946851012260.0122047311.8622047314.636.492204731TT-10.20634.7947321.3716929990322.8156821449140.10843236430702161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 15:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.21814.39617.80769.92577102503201.64.636.23TT-10.78233.2187320.6198869689322.4195928022610.097842617071067161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.57814.1817.87971.781309583280.0665354691.5965354694.636.226535469TT-10.42235.5787321.9236521990523.1081013406810.10436878941745161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:07FORECAST202499-18620.91214.61217.76271.6494911845960.0622047581.5722047584.636.202204758TT-11.08832.9127321.8312346773523.0590442119420.092534052178862161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:05FORECAST202499-18621.52415.67418.59972.1530890238240.0555118411.6955118414.636.325511841TT-10.47635.5247322.1841391119923.2465808714110.1033703082672161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18622.42415.76419.09468.8243467766510.0370078941.7670078944.436.197007894TT-9.57637.4247319.8430771453522.0129908555630.12092912765061161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.40615.4418.92368.612090872050.0287401731.7187401734.436.148740173TT-9.59437.4067319.6931278997421.9348139426270.12055861072347161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.45214.918.17669.3259428150790.051181131.781181134.436.21118113TT-10.54833.4527320.1971110857322.1979666126830.10204977727381161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.65816.59219.62569.6923316148390.0539370371.6039370374.436.033937037TT-9.34237.6587320.4554288278122.3332860136430.1258186353575161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST202499-18622.08215.2618.67169.4771831223010.0291338741.6091338744.446.049133874TT-9.91836.0827320.3037702682422.253803701690.11402523452323161115127.5WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:07FORECAST202499-18621.214.25217.72669.8920334517630.0838583131.5238583134.496.013858313TT-10.830.27320.5961248651722.4071150835820.097524317312179161115127.5WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18619.97613.1916.58366.90532483116601.184.395.57TF-12.02425.9767318.4844313649821.3083043341430.077616541926718161114126WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST202499-18621.90215.63818.7767.15468823036501.294.415.7TF-10.09829.9027318.6613524102721.3996037721780.11050617723614161114126WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.2814.57618.42867.15869199904101.284.385.66TF-9.7230.287318.6641921334821.4010703306160.11798729962097161114126WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.60415.76419.18466.7117669918801.054.385.43TF-9.39631.6047318.3470265838421.2374926600190.12467826563378161114126WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST202499-18622.29814.9918.64466.70149713989701.114.365.47TF-9.70231.2987318.3397342308821.2337368723170.11835224302646161114126WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:06FORECAST202499-18622.1915.04418.61770.16211578421501.614.476.08TT-9.8129.197320.7862926178822.5070450046450.11617448701182161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18622.58614.88218.73473.85728248782402.384.576.95TT-9.41424.5867323.3750376070923.8836015020580.12429974783017161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:05FORECAST202499-18622.62213.65818.1473.37288535702302.394.526.91TT-9.37828.6227323.0370628084723.7021613755150.12505758588312161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST202499-18624.49416.03420.26472.29435007217102.434.186.61TT-7.50630.4947322.2830490616823.2992435711910.16894360460497161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202499-18620.5713.60417.08771.81582087169301.944.226.16TT-11.4319.577321.9478428590923.1209486127960.086855740208445161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:09FORECAST202499-18621.30812.99217.1573.15502746412502.254.246.49TT-10.69223.3087322.8849228250923.6206553970210.099445504723138161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:06FORECAST202499-18621.2913.53217.41168.49984076644901.484.015.49TF-10.7122.297319.6137955638821.8934941028860.099123406304382161114126WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18622.13617.22219.67966.40007864313901.083.955.03TF-9.86421.1367318.1256201050821.1235661933740.11509630480068161114126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202499-18621.88417.56419.72466.25307606601401.123.834.95TF-10.11620.8847318.0211366105921.0698785544610.11015858757639161114126WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.04616.35819.20268.5925753136101.444.095.53TF-9.95421.0467319.6793369772621.9276289978170.11331513166334161114126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:05FORECAST202499-18622.15417.61819.88669.07718413371601.663.975.63TF-9.84625.1547320.0215898889822.1061902915250.11545490795625161115127.5WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:08FORECAST202499-18624.42219.25621.83968.64554318663401.763.825.58TF-7.57835.4227319.7167658215421.9471310556930.16709209952734161115127.5WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:05FORECAST202499-18623.37815.99819.68865.4601365574030.0287401731.2887401733.484.768740173TF-8.62236.3787317.4568739687720.7807703210820.14171845386584161114126WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18625.03418.0521.54264.3030917693290.0759842931.0559842933.374.425984293TF-6.96629.0347316.6314691206820.3603824159250.18324650046037161114126WETL
2023-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202499-18627.53617.54622.54164.6649676425650.0759842931.0859842933.374.455984293TF-4.46434.5367316.8898824501520.4916739948950.25882503523116162114128WETL
2023-12-31 15:00:04FORECAST202499-18627.60815.83621.72264.2196837797640.0531496351.0431496353.284.323149635TF-4.39229.6087316.5718742997120.3301456610940.26121513814566162114128WETL
2023-12-31 11:00:04FORECAST202499-18627.62616.50222.06464.2611772159040.0523622331.0223622333.314.332362233TF-4.37429.6267316.6015228446720.3451865663460.26181442862353162114128WETL
2023-12-31 07:00:07FORECAST202499-18620.76813.02816.89863.7327424804160.0500000270.8900000273.284.170000027TF-11.23224.7687316.2237037110220.1538038748170.090110690795744161113124.5WETL
2023-12-31 03:00:08FORECAST202499-18622.44212.77617.60964.9232430077530.0362204921.0562204923.284.336220492TF-9.55822.4427317.0741700918720.5854833963560.12130044266917161114126WETL
2023-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18628.74216.3422.54166.6473778599160.0334645851.2134645853.134.343464585TF-3.25827.7427318.3013024047221.213947174670.30029285294444162114128WETL
2023-12-30 19:00:03FORECAST202499-18623.55815.00819.28366.6821389934720.0326771831.2226771833.134.352677183TF-8.44228.5587318.3259880007921.2266577771030.14589671901581161114126WETL
2023-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202499-18622.53213.80218.16765.4807115526450.0326771830.9426771833.134.072677183TF-9.46817.5327317.4715296804120.788261661180.12316900491836161113124.5WETL
2023-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202499-18621.57812.7417.15969.3623553913190.1039370641.3639370643.134.493937064TF-10.42218.5787320.2227940671722.2114072464880.10436878941745161114126WETL
2023-12-30 07:00:06FORECAST202499-18623.10811.71417.41169.9802607002790.1039370641.3639370643.14.463937064TF-8.89217.1087320.6582609277322.439748695420.13560394855163161114126WETL
2023-12-30 03:00:06FORECAST202499-18626.83415.60221.21870.8558306423380.1236221141.5136221143.174.683622114TF-5.16620.8347321.2741469396322.7641465453160.23612726802268161115127.5WETL
2023-12-29 23:00:04FORECAST202499-18623.16215.78219.47272.3673363857410.0685039741.4885039743.214.698503974TF-8.83816.1627322.3341396394423.3264631118960.13681220197154161114126WETL
2023-12-29 19:00:04FORECAST202499-18627.35617.7822.56869.6167920212730.0185039471.1085039473.254.358503947TF-4.64422.3567320.4021902731522.3053726434070.25289960061228162114128WETL
2023-12-29 15:00:04FORECAST202499-18627.35617.7822.56869.6167920212730.0185039471.1085039473.254.358503947TF-4.64422.3567320.4021902731522.3053726434070.25289960061228162114128WETL
2023-12-29 11:00:03FORECAST202499-18625.55618.66222.10965.79204677694100.923.023.94TF-6.44422.5567317.6932024625820.9016860371340.1977668894018161113124.5DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:06FORECAST202499-18628.72417.2762365.80181096783900.983.034.01TF-3.27633.7247317.7001517977720.9052453330510.29965245615893162113126WETL
2023-12-29 03:00:06FORECAST202499-18628.4915.15221.82164.8543571948600.862.893.75TF-3.5131.497317.0250297073920.5604545163540.29138417706137162113126DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:03FORECAST202499-18628.41824.60226.5164.4852306795010.1661418220.6061418222.893.496141822TF-3.58233.4187316.7615630824420.426442465770.28886165406938162113126DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:03FORECAST202499-18632.30630.52431.41563.7646119462320.2000001080.6100001082.963.570000108TF0.30645.3067316.2465040458420.1653356098360.43688362194386162113126DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:04FORECAST202499-18626.1523.82824.98965.44825235576800.573.193.76TF-5.8518.157317.4484084206620.7764435442520.21510774717076161113124.5DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:04FORECAST202499-18626.4223.21624.81882.045279813530.2220473642.0620473643.865.922047364TT-5.5821.427329.0255125562226.9949902434660.22327248573431161115127.5WETL
2023-12-28 07:00:12FORECAST202499-18626.88823.05424.97177.6895193933860.2220473642.0120473643.435.442047364TF-5.11230.8887326.034267813125.3294455721750.23783347617295161115127.5WETL
2023-12-28 03:00:07FORECAST202499-18619.0417.92418.48263.35693846473100.33.163.46FF-12.9617.047315.9547034338820.0179227031030.064594271006758161112123DRYL