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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 5, 2024

[ Thursday, January 4, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 6, 2024 ]

DAY 97 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/06/2024 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.280
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 74

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 66 in
SWE DAY: 5
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -188

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-06 07:00:02OBSERVATION202497-18827.2199222.4999624.8599465.546128750.299999999999951.284.135.41TF-4.7800874.219925315.37910145856 20.6718791892620.2799712931942816 2114128WETL
2024-01-06 03:00:04OBSERVATION202497-18827.2199222.4999624.8599465.546128750.299999999999951.284.135.41TF-4.7800874.219925315.37910145856 20.6718791892620.2799712931942816 2114128WETL
2024-01-05 11:00:01FORECAST202497-18825.84420.10222.97367.0853531302890.5224412271.5024412274.135.632441227TF-6.15672.8445316.4814972342521.2312730011620.23008172576136161115127.5WETL
2024-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST202497-18824.67418.82421.74966.8574187083690.5098427951.4898427954.135.619842795TF-7.32671.6745316.3185218533121.1482398607590.19188862911586161114126WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:04FORECAST202497-18826.620.46223.53167.1408129061720.6007877261.5807877264.135.710787726TF-5.473.65316.521137256221.2514864573670.256861242923961621151210WETL
2024-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST202497-18828.29220.8424.56664.0060130604920.7358271691.5158271694.135.645827169TF-3.70874.2925314.2717451747120.1152814261960.322162619723261621151210WETL
2024-01-04 19:00:01FORECAST202497-18828.0420.67824.35963.8811925002530.7000003781.4800003784.135.610000378TF-3.9674.045314.1818082187920.0703085709020.31200895837684162114128WETL
2024-01-04 15:00:01FORECAST202497-18826.81618.98622.90164.2541406032850.7555122191.5355122194.135.665512219TF-5.18472.8165314.4504438510320.204743031970.26479960202581621151210WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:02FORECAST202497-18827.98620.69624.34164.8555151461850.5732286561.3532286564.135.483228656TF-4.01473.9865314.8830800849120.4219043697240.30985127459048162114128WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:05FORECAST202497-18827.521.86624.68364.5377084529870.5523625031.3423625034.135.472362503TF-4.573.55314.6545283850920.307082216330.2907328106739162114128WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:07FORECAST202497-18826.29420.87623.58564.4626265225740.4425199241.2825199244.135.412519924TF-5.70670.2945314.6005060273620.2799749238550.24583066688439161114126WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST202497-18825.98820.46223.22563.114515219930.4755908081.2155908084.135.345590808TF-6.01267.9885313.6287683688419.7945276746230.23505915651998161114126WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.15821.3824.26963.000278756460.4657482831.2257482834.135.355748283TF-4.84269.1585313.5462720848119.7535025443920.27761844191655162114128WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST202497-18825.89821.25423.57662.9876565312860.4901577451.2201577454.135.350157745TF-6.10268.8985313.5371554296419.7489706559990.23194133009999161114126WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:01FORECAST202497-18825.9721.4723.7263.564374961640.4177167611.1477167614.135.277716761TF-6.0368.975313.9534036067219.9562518673410.23443374826895161114126WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202497-18825.95220.82223.38763.3143227774110.4393703161.1493703164.135.279370316TF-6.04869.9525313.7730025982619.8663251653440.23380926028334161114126WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST202497-18825.01620.26422.6464.8664901241670.6145672611.4345672614.135.564567261TF-6.98468.0165314.8909694802920.4258719619820.20263136433457161114126WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202497-18826.1520.17423.16264.8516477800780.7425200861.5725200864.225.792520086TF-5.8562.155314.8802999649520.4205063062120.24072903629809161115127.5WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:04FORECAST202497-18826.40220.58823.49564.4999110588220.740157881.520157884.225.74015788TF-5.59865.4025314.6273339902420.2934350590450.249694586389931621151210WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202497-18826.9621.18224.07163.5557959153870.8196854821.2596854824.225.479685482TF-5.0464.965313.947216122219.9531651960670.27016018987319162114128WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202497-18824.67420.3922.53264.2646075822850.5870081911.0670081914.225.287008191TF-7.32659.6745314.4579795766620.2085186586120.19188862911586161114126WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:08FORECAST202497-18826.13221.52423.82865.6795771892460.9098430111.4298430114.25.629843011TF-5.86863.1325315.4748482418620.7202546463670.24009540223837161114126WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST202497-18827.08622.17224.62964.4256263514640.7933075150.9933075154.295.283307515TF-4.91463.0865314.5738801666620.2666192635470.27489475867482162114128WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.30222.13624.71963.5856590630990.6196853740.7796853744.275.049685374TF-4.69860.3025313.9687538041319.9639101358550.28310499665295162113126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202497-18826.34820.42623.38763.3092014504650.6448822380.7448822384.214.954882238TF-5.65260.3485313.7693066018119.8644842406270.24775861080398161113124.5WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202497-18826.94222.42424.68366.4618294239581.0763785341.3663785344.285.646378534TF-5.05859.9425316.035447497821.0042940035230.26948716323641162114128WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:04FORECAST202497-18827.2322.20824.71967.0427345918661.303150311.473150314.285.75315031TF-4.7763.235316.4510317263221.215742531350.28035522753107162114128WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:07FORECAST202497-18829.62423.64826.63666.7541157180611.4098432811.5198432814.195.709843281TF-2.37668.6245316.2446281091421.1106305000130.377900502197941621151210WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:05FORECAST202497-18829.94826.18628.06761.8738551665870.6425200320.6425200323.964.602520032TF-2.05270.9485312.731538139119.3499058968430.39190670541935162113126WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202497-18828.86824.94426.90660.7603621017520.4771656120.4771656123.854.327165612TF-3.13262.8685311.9238624283818.9526068293250.3458648445494162112124WETL
2023-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202497-18829.58824.0826.83460.9095220957750.5019687750.5019687753.854.351968775TF-2.41266.5885312.0321886518819.0057314892850.3763537421745162113126WETL
2023-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202497-18828.23823.59425.91660.6609212305360.4988191670.4988191673.764.258819167TF-3.76262.2385311.8516215061418.9172066477990.31997530059782162113126WETL
2023-12-31 11:00:04FORECAST202497-18827.5921.90224.74660.7742152790390.4736223030.4736223033.794.263622303TF-4.4161.595311.933924913818.9575395055470.29423145094972162112124WETL
2023-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST202497-18828.23822.85625.54760.5468784545310.4059057310.4059057313.764.165905731TF-3.76263.2385311.7687502561918.8766246276830.31997530059782162112124WETL
2023-12-31 03:00:07FORECAST202497-18828.86820.71424.79161.3706312866680.5401577720.5401577723.764.300157772TF-3.13260.8685312.366805997819.1701480770850.3458648445494162113126WETL
2023-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202497-18828.68824.81826.75363.0721989159630.6795279260.6795279263.614.289527926TF-3.31257.6885313.5982122848119.7793288249180.33838732862018162113126WETL
2023-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202497-18829.78624.8927.33862.9784168204320.6740161120.6740161123.614.284016112TF-2.21463.7865313.5304816779619.7456533610250.38488483232295162113126WETL
2023-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202497-18828.23822.29825.26861.7315002899780.4389766150.4389766153.614.048976615TF-3.76257.2385312.6284078873919.2990206521550.31997530059782162112124WETL
2023-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202497-18828.34621.68625.01664.1332231942160.6751972150.6751972153.614.285197215TF-3.65457.3465314.3633745566520.1611364645280.32435611065019162113126WETL
2023-12-30 07:00:05FORECAST202497-18826.81620.87623.84664.5352771683670.6751972150.6751972153.584.255197215TF-5.18455.8165314.6527792077820.3062043179710.2647996020258162113126WETL
2023-12-30 03:00:05FORECAST202497-18828.29222.69425.49365.6496804216710.8606303860.8606303863.654.510630386TF-3.70855.2925315.4534006857720.709414942950.32216261972326162113126WETL
2023-12-29 23:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.51822.58625.05266.1011626516580.7141736140.7141736143.694.404173614TF-4.48252.5185315.7771148743620.8732344319810.29143098210142162113126WETL
2023-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.37421.63224.50365.3063763750960.5751971610.5751971613.734.305197161TF-4.62653.3745315.2070020188820.5850271099110.28586762812439162113126WETL
2023-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.37421.63224.50365.3063763750960.5751971610.5751971613.734.305197161TF-4.62653.3745315.2070020188820.5850271099110.28586762812439162113126WETL
2023-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202497-18829.91225.98827.9564.975333337580.818898080.818898083.54.31889808TF-2.08854.9125314.969199841220.4652287507530.39034315508013162113126WETL
2023-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST202497-18830.99225.9728.48165.0646073973250.8803154360.9003154363.494.390315436TF-1.00861.9925315.0333488559720.4975211603780.43791006098647162113126WETL
2023-12-29 03:00:05FORECAST202497-18835.58225.73630.65962.8004308912760.5834648820.5834648823.373.953464882TF3.58259.5825313.4018936305619.6817739621410.64165540621175163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:03FORECAST202497-18835.99627.57231.78460.1993242634770.0913386320.0913386323.373.461338632FF3.99657.9965311.5160455981218.7530554422370.65899210718069163112125DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:03FORECAST202497-18839.03827.37433.20660.1717118557740.0838583130.0838583133.443.523858313FF7.03860.0385311.4959592074518.7432451016690.77452206687086164111123DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:04FORECAST202497-18831.76624.27828.02264.0072998301720.3854332790.6054332793.454.055433279TF-0.23446.7665314.2726721823620.1157451568060.47260381187683162113126WETL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202497-18832.01824.02628.02273.949538159181.1814967012.0514967013.475.521496701TF0.01800000000000148.0185321.3455119309423.7633521968180.483957495804181621151210WETL
2023-12-28 07:00:11FORECAST202497-18833.11624.3528.73370.05343506251.1433077041.6333077043.425.053307704TF1.11657.1165318.5951138821522.3186821215730.533458598726111631151212.5WETL
2023-12-28 03:00:07FORECAST202497-18832.86426.92429.89462.7508341740230.2291339820.4091339823.463.869133982TF0.86453.8645313.3660515357519.6639811356880.52211565364903163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:05FORECAST202497-18829.35424.74627.0565.4508203523280.3350395510.6550395513.64.255039551TF-2.64644.3545315.3106995794820.6373439533430.36634914566319162113126WETL
2023-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202497-18827.71619.5823.64863.3309441170140.3472442820.3472442823.573.917244282TF-4.28437.7165313.7849976761919.8723001525880.29916192123697162112124DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202497-18831.56824.15227.8662.0265761505110.2767718030.2767718033.483.756771803TF-0.43249.5685312.8421367550119.4045266185230.46369818700062162112124DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202497-18839.70424.8932.29764.6686135279720.7003940790.7003940793.454.150394079TF7.70466.7045314.748691534720.3543614912920.79649742700984164113129WETL
2023-12-27 07:00:05FORECAST202497-18833.6224.0828.8565.3836561845950.665354690.665354693.414.07535469TF1.6245.625315.2624865841620.613014030720.55605405267825163113127.5WETL
2023-12-27 03:00:09FORECAST202497-18831.74823.4527.59975.2244753316611.4610244111.7410244113.535.271024411TF-0.25244.7485322.2396409789624.2403079237050.471793575977511621151210WETL
2023-12-26 23:00:04FORECAST202497-1883224.04428.02267.651620369810.1669292240.6069292243.464.066929224TF0475316.8859757998921.4378497353310.48314597736391162113126WETL
2023-12-26 19:00:05FORECAST202497-18832.59423.32427.95967.8058105226760.1586615030.5386615033.674.208661503TF0.59448.5945316.9960114233321.4941714870140.50994282846519163113127.5WETL
2023-12-26 15:00:05FORECAST202497-18829.24621.88425.56566.57634669123300.53.373.87TF-2.75441.2465316.1174226050821.0459431224950.36176161836432162113126DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:06FORECAST202497-18833.5330.79432.16263.784101437708003.593.59FF1.5360.535314.1118314788320.035340921830.55203034248643163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:07FORECAST202497-18833.5330.79432.16263.309100218152003.543.54FF1.5359.535313.7692335432519.8644478517630.55203034248643163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST202497-18830.3830.34430.36263.554096537534003.63.6FF-1.6253.385313.9459904601519.9525537852760.410798662389162111122DRYL