MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 4, 2024

[ Wednesday, January 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, January 5, 2024 ]

DAY 96 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/05/2024 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.505
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.64 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.31 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 65 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 313.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.31 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -189

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-05 07:00:06OBSERVATION202496-18931.9122.8227.36564.739043750.639999999999991.313.875.18TF-0.0994.914313.72151164084 20.3100306674330.5047509410954416 31141210WETL
2024-01-05 03:00:04OBSERVATION202496-18931.9122.8227.36564.739043750.639999999999991.313.875.18TF-0.0994.914313.72151164084 20.3100306674330.5047509410954416 31141210WETL
2024-01-04 11:00:01FORECAST202496-18931.4619.27425.36762.5312036606290.4374018111.1074018113.874.977401811TF-0.5494.464312.1233862802319.5174510347340.48267300431403162114128WETL
2024-01-04 07:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.63218.87824.75562.2646584150830.4503939441.1203939443.874.990393944TF-1.36893.6324311.9298428806719.4222051164360.44223722629001162114128WETL
2024-01-04 03:00:06FORECAST202496-18929.0319.77824.40462.5206272468580.5023624761.1723624763.875.042362476TF-2.9792.034312.1157090481619.5136699032890.36603827413949162114128WETL
2024-01-03 23:00:02FORECAST202496-18929.73219.3124.52160.8753887014450.4834648281.0734648283.874.943464828TF-2.26889.7324310.9189445455418.9273116038520.39897159857375162114128WETL
2024-01-03 19:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.18220.4825.33160.8821937717260.4964569611.0864569613.874.956456961TF-1.81890.1824310.9239049353418.9297294285350.42048432249697162114128WETL
2024-01-03 15:00:01FORECAST202496-18930.61421.34425.97960.7576956693980.4720474991.0620474993.874.932047499TF-1.38690.6144310.8331415179718.8855054163120.44136330266364162114128WETL
2024-01-03 11:00:01FORECAST202496-18930.70423.07226.88861.6878354051980.4708663961.0608663963.874.930866396TF-1.29690.7044311.5105522143319.216411671980.44573569065303162114128WETL
2024-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.88421.88426.38461.3203018882550.4555120571.0355120573.874.905512057TF-1.11691.8844311.2430727717919.0855191829940.45449976684774162114128WETL
2024-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST202496-18930.23622.40626.32161.9080383514280.5145672071.1545672073.875.024567207TF-1.76491.2364311.6706894789619.294920997280.42308324427919162114128WETL
2024-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202496-18929.73223.12626.42961.2531213925790.4326773991.2526773993.875.122677399TF-2.26883.7324311.1941539018619.0616132856110.39897159857375162114128WETL
2024-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.50623.39626.95160.9351321723090.3960632061.1960632063.875.066063206TF-1.49486.5064310.9624901620518.9485404386550.4361259002011162114128WETL
2024-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.14624.74627.44659.6562171087430.2299213840.8599213843.874.729921384TF-1.85486.1464310.028874075918.4951498218510.41875362407415162113126WETL
2024-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202496-18929.42623.82826.62761.3175466340310.2669292780.8969292783.874.766929278TF-2.57483.4264311.2410666404919.0845386181540.38451207664436162113126WETL
2024-01-02 07:00:08FORECAST202496-18929.22825.0727.14961.2807009965170.3161419030.9161419033.874.786141903TF-2.77285.2284311.2142375719519.0714266385060.37523941832524162113126WETL
2024-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST202496-18929.87624.74627.31160.4589353027790.0700787780.6900787783.874.560078778TF-2.12483.8764310.6152177748618.7794653555090.40582568760157162113126WETL
2024-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.41624.54827.48260.3355652190260.1311024330.6311024333.874.501102433TF-1.58481.4164310.5251801054818.7357122564040.43176989664757162113126WETL
2024-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202496-18929.67823.16226.4259.9264886469220.1047244660.5147244663.874.384724466TF-2.32281.6784310.2264268240618.5907804450470.39640920084947162113126WETL
2024-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.2924.42227.35660.9346076186680.0740157880.7740157883.874.644015788TF-1.7181.294310.9621078559418.9483540264760.42568551708514162113126WETL
2024-01-01 11:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.05623.88226.96960.33508006879300.653.874.52TF-1.94484.0564310.5248259785618.7355402387640.41443382137962162113126WETL
2024-01-01 07:00:07FORECAST202496-18931.83826.52829.18360.0831879561200.53.874.37TF-0.16286.8384310.3409027963918.6462707931870.50121769147725163113127.5WETL
2024-01-01 03:00:04FORECAST202496-18931.96427.60829.78658.91774545107900.163.874.03TF-0.03600000000000188.9644309.4884022924418.2343589063270.50740064890801163112125WETL
2023-12-31 23:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.75824.99827.87858.32385982179500.093.833.92TF-1.24281.7584309.0530138918218.025164659730.44836232956678162111122DRYL
2023-12-31 19:00:02FORECAST202496-18931.65826.27628.96758.32658133961800.093.833.92TF-0.34284.6584309.0550105845618.0261222132770.49238475581862162111122DRYL
2023-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202496-18931.04623.59427.3257.9890776003.833.83TF-0.95482.0464308.8072893082117.907449863140.46240654326653162111122DRYL
2023-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.81225.62828.2258.08623482914400.033.833.86TF-1.18881.8124308.8786226207717.9415962072530.45099123402112162111122DRYL
2023-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST202496-18930.68624.2627.47358.2449655003.833.83TF-1.31482.6864308.9951255886917.9974104295810.44486066748347162111122DRYL
2023-12-31 03:00:07FORECAST202496-18930.95625.91628.43658.2544119003.833.83TF-1.04479.9564309.0020574474818.0007331324930.45801185309797162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 23:00:02FORECAST202496-18931.15425.39428.27458.9976384003.683.68FF-0.84677.1544309.5469231692118.262537440970.4676861882148162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 19:00:02FORECAST202496-18932.25226.76229.50758.9501112003.683.68FF0.25282.2524309.5121113475718.2457733816860.52152406050045163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202496-18931.11825.4328.27458.9929152003.683.68FF-0.88277.1184309.5434637973618.2608713105120.46592562857374162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 11:00:02FORECAST202496-18930.5624.85427.70759.998577387313003.683.68FF-1.4476.564310.2790965867118.6163043882230.43874326078255162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 07:00:05FORECAST202496-18930.18224.45827.3260.223021515534003.653.65FF-1.81877.1824310.4430191073618.695816619050.42048432249697162111122DRYL
2023-12-30 03:00:05FORECAST202496-18929.71423.84626.7860.462400213462003.723.72FF-2.28674.7144310.6177461206618.7806944793510.39811697631854162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 23:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.3826.27628.32861.30003024617800.053.713.76TF-1.6273.384311.2283124349519.0783049657290.43002978455518162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 19:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.39826.07828.23861.39794793518600.183.623.8TF-1.60274.3984311.2996019513919.1131567528550.43089967293566162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202496-18930.39826.07828.23861.39794793518600.183.623.8TF-1.60274.3984311.2996019513919.1131567528550.43089967293566162112124DRYL
2023-12-29 11:00:02FORECAST202496-18929.49823.79226.64560.120361341743003.573.57FF-2.50273.4984310.3680529594318.6594394928540.38790071396713162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 07:00:05FORECAST202496-18929.51625.17827.34760.0206608257290.0165354420.0165354423.563.576535442FF-2.48478.5164310.2952293468618.624124716470.38874921965996162111122DRYL
2023-12-29 03:00:05FORECAST202496-18929.55223.41426.48359.705095965983003.443.44FF-2.44871.5524310.0646117190318.512437398340.39044781995437162111122DRYL
2023-12-28 23:00:03FORECAST202496-18932.73823.05427.89659.76560705382003.443.44FF0.73869.7384310.1088480898818.5338435588520.54528699076681163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-28 19:00:02FORECAST202496-18932.14422.87427.50959.91449866681003.513.51FF0.14469.1444310.2176657215818.5865359192970.51622999394309163111122.5DRYL
2023-12-28 15:00:04FORECAST202496-18928.14822.42425.28661.5263223307170.2185040550.2185040553.523.738504055TF-3.85263.1484311.393038785319.1588684758460.32604407562885162112124DRYL
2023-12-28 11:00:03FORECAST202496-18929.5721.34425.45766.3211143051890.2496064340.9096064343.54.409606434TF-2.4363.574314.8611799158720.8819443034670.39129790688939162113126WETL
2023-12-28 07:00:11FORECAST202496-18930.59623.25226.92462.85028263430200.533.453.98TF-1.40471.5964312.3549031337719.6315939441670.44048966441264162113126DRYL
2023-12-28 03:00:06FORECAST202496-18932.10821.34426.72661.3353541165440.1755906460.1755906463.533.705590646TF0.10869.1084311.2540322190819.0908762863590.51446462282332163112125DRYL
2023-12-27 23:00:04FORECAST202496-18931.06425.64628.35562.5309359041010.3192915110.3192915113.673.989291511TF-0.93663.0644312.1231919230419.5173553083230.4632860496468162112124DRYL
2023-12-27 19:00:03FORECAST202496-18929.24622.49625.87160.335066344217003.643.64FF-2.75458.2464310.5248159605418.7355353725050.3760795061081162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 15:00:03FORECAST202496-18929.13822.67625.90759.787449173479003.553.55FF-2.86266.1384310.1248140076818.5415715549190.37104791979153162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 11:00:03FORECAST202496-18929.69624.76427.2360.227771902176003.523.52FF-2.30474.6964310.4464875372118.6975002392230.39726284244276162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 07:00:05FORECAST202496-18929.55224.04426.79860.483490230098003.483.48FF-2.44859.5524310.6331350287518.7881761876560.39044781995437162111122DRYL
2023-12-27 03:00:09FORECAST202496-18928.77823.37826.07862.9679491831020.2212599620.2812599623.63.881259962TF-3.22260.7784312.440232111319.6737206583410.35443880544381162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 23:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.43424.45827.44666.1488204043780.1492126790.4392126793.533.969212679TF-1.56663.4344314.7372875180720.8195003065940.4326404515535162112124DRYL
2023-12-26 19:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.52423.7227.12266.3964772620120.1523622870.4123622873.714.122362287TF-1.47663.5244314.9153545622420.909270178650.43699804884849162112124WETL
2023-12-26 15:00:05FORECAST202496-18934.5224.15229.33666.5763466912330.3708663420.5608663423.383.940866342TF2.5259.524315.0446117613320.9745192958270.63042139572887163113127.5DRYL
2023-12-26 11:00:05FORECAST202496-18936.78827.46432.12663.80023903770800.073.593.66FF4.78874.7884313.04306127419.9722221383770.72972258318327164111123DRYL
2023-12-26 07:00:07FORECAST202496-18936.78828.54432.66663.32523781815200.053.563.61FF4.78873.7884312.6991730856719.801749501190.72972258318327164111123DRYL
2023-12-26 03:00:09FORECAST202496-18937.79626.85232.32463.554096537534003.673.67FF5.79670.7964312.8649124766319.8838468507470.76913222885412164111123DRYL
2023-12-25 23:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.84829.2130.02967.513181255512003.513.51FF-1.15275.8484315.7168828985921.3150511405580.45274503928044162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 19:00:05FORECAST202496-18930.4729.13829.80466.910813275498003.353.35FF-1.5377.474315.2848081339421.0959629256510.4343825383737162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 15:00:03FORECAST202496-18929.89424.65627.27566.111610365774003.133.13FF-2.10669.8944314.7105235548420.8060195112660.40668452848612162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 11:00:04FORECAST202496-18930.88429.7530.31770.142615227657003.253.25FF-1.11669.8844317.5952373362222.2769605306110.45449976684774162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 07:00:06FORECAST202496-18930.88429.7530.31770.194650818714003.193.19FF-1.11669.8844317.6322828809722.2960871855810.45449976684774162111122DRYL
2023-12-25 03:00:09FORECAST202496-18913.85613.65813.75773.32368124995800.033.83.83TF-18.14437.8564319.8509487036823.4526490102450.013442189584434161111121.5DRYL