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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 31, 2024

[ Tuesday, January 30, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 1, 2024 ]

DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/01/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.95°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.919
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 89

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.90 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 89 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 31.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-02-01 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024123-16246.7099635.9499241.3299489.4158316666670.899999999999981.1910.8512.04TT14.7099688.7099631357.01407538566 31.9227104673150.9186625942549116 51141214WETL
2024-02-01 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024123-16246.7099635.9499241.3299489.4158316666670.899999999999981.1910.8512.04TT14.7099688.7099631357.01407538566 31.9227104673150.9186625942549116 51141214WETL
2024-01-31 11:00:01FORECAST2024123-16239.05632.88235.96991.9179132118230.7748035681.06480356810.8511.914803568TT7.05681.05631358.5401202379232.9562596549850.723013203291781641141212WETL
2024-01-31 07:00:05FORECAST2024123-16237.23832.88235.0691.2013476666670.8814965391.17149653910.8512.021496539TT5.23879.23831358.1040702475932.6595738114990.655763976587081631141210WETL
2024-01-31 03:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.09432.97235.03391.2894938125890.877953231.1679532310.8512.01795323TT5.09479.09431358.157752438932.6960399252010.650181409301671631141210WETL
2024-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2024123-16237.20232.6334.91691.8852734659430.8842524461.00425244610.8511.854252446TT5.20272.20231358.5202752953632.9427335385990.6543714540811631141210WETL
2024-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2024123-16236.84232.84634.84491.60718720.8437012430.96370124310.8511.813701243TT4.84271.84231358.3511323032232.8275392602330.64033403500364163113127.5WETL
2024-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2024123-16237.4933.81835.65491.9281543997690.8314965120.95149651210.8511.801496512TT5.4972.4931358.546346533932.9605039036420.66545170135988163113127.5WETL
2024-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2024123-16238.5733.54836.05992.3247485218420.6814964310.80149643110.8511.651496431TT6.5773.5731358.7873378125933.1249507363690.70567227111116164113129WETL
2024-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2024123-16238.7533.06235.90691.6350639634870.6464570420.86645704210.8511.716457042TT6.7573.7531358.3680934344332.8390831643370.7121530466107164113129WETL
2024-01-30 03:00:05FORECAST2024123-16239.32634.77237.04991.127116250.6070869420.87708694210.8511.727086942TT7.32676.32631358.0588529903132.628870720790.73242626006151164113129WETL
2024-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2024123-16239.77632.59436.18594.8826251280270.5854333870.99543338710.8511.845433387TT7.77669.77631360.3358186600734.1896084021240.747748396820811641141212WETL
2024-01-29 19:00:01FORECAST2024123-16238.17433.13435.65494.9788355584730.5503939980.85039399810.8511.700393998TT6.17467.17431360.3938661935634.2297897534810.69118281443979163113127.5WETL
2024-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.9433.38635.66394.9450450904210.6314964040.89149640410.8511.741496404TT5.9466.9431360.3734806924534.2156763737360.68247693832954163113127.5WETL
2024-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2024123-16239.25433.06236.15894.5661923279340.6370082180.70700821810.8511.557008218TT7.25469.25431360.1448022349234.0575226340530.72993194067252164113129WETL
2024-01-29 07:00:08FORECAST2024123-16238.69633.15235.92493.7912438655060.5496065960.55960659610.8511.409606596TT6.69668.69631359.6763513607133.7344923831280.71021589443455164113129WETL
2024-01-29 03:00:06FORECAST2024123-16239.05633.18836.12294.5621435704420.4692915920.48929159210.8511.339291592TT7.05668.05631360.1423571849834.0558332859230.72301320329178164112126WETL
2024-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2024123-16236.96832.01834.49399.1478093691580.7149610160.90496101611.0911.994961016TT4.96859.96831362.8955955719635.9803033306760.64526985011526163113127.5WETL
2024-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.86832.73835.30399.0539289388620.7456696940.91566969411.0912.005669694TT5.86862.86831362.8395506109835.9406830624290.67977749008408163113127.5WETL
2024-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2024123-16239.43434.26836.85198.1546842126340.7433074880.94330748811.0912.033307488TT7.43466.43431362.302039736935.5616422999680.73614586311392164113129WETL
2024-01-28 11:00:04FORECAST2024123-16237.8533.33235.59198.6042042288870.6984255741.07842557411.0912.168425574TT5.8561.8531362.5708874623735.7510138347890.679101132513061631141210WETL
2024-01-28 07:00:06FORECAST2024123-16237.7632.0934.92598.4461456978180.6066932410.95669324111.1212.076693241TT5.7659.7631362.4763912294435.6844036229920.67571046601629163113127.5WETL
2024-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2024123-16236.84232.39634.61998.5848420326370.6074806430.99748064311.1812.177480643TT4.84257.84231362.5593136970935.7428526682880.640334035003641631141210WETL
2024-01-27 23:00:04FORECAST2024123-16236.9532.84634.898109.279896199770.6582680720.94826807211.8712.818268072TT4.9554.9531368.8663913004540.3096809528960.64456620143434163113127.5WETL
2024-01-27 19:01:00FORECAST2024123-16237.27432.64834.961107.709905346430.7070869961.08708699611.9213.007086996TT5.27455.27431367.9512328857439.6319924662260.657154391646741631141210WETL
2024-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.0431.85634.448110.457886689490.7417326841.01173268411.8512.861732684TT5.0451.0431369.5506576034840.8197846635930.648079472893751631141210WETL
2024-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2024123-16239.0233.00836.014108.079324606850.6165357660.95653576611.5912.546535766TT7.0257.0231368.1668983466339.7912297159040.721746002407164113129WETL
2024-01-27 07:00:05FORECAST2024123-16239.41632.52235.969109.126509757810.6881893480.94818934811.5512.498189348TT7.41660.41631368.7771420639340.2433623918960.73552776240978164113129WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2024123-16236.75233.04434.898106.585932910680.6433074340.97330743411.7112.683307434TT4.75253.75231367.2938164737839.1483540811810.63679401555218163113127.5WETL
2024-01-26 23:00:04FORECAST2024123-16237.18433.4435.312110.778968787950.6291341981.31913419811.9813.299134198TT5.18447.18431369.7368116548740.9590627180720.653674407750711631141210WETL
2024-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2024123-16236.80632.32434.565110.354881964610.4559057581.07590575811.7712.845905758TT4.80647.80631369.4909062919640.7751253508450.638919451186881631141210WETL
2024-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2024123-16237.7633.15235.456111.111838851850.4618112731.11181127311.6912.801811273TT5.7649.7631369.9296398117641.1035625252870.675710466016291631141210WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:05FORECAST2024123-16237.47231.53234.502109.312576574850.62992161.459921611.8713.3299216TT5.47249.47231368.8854021681840.3238137718520.664763265822951631141210WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:06FORECAST2024123-16236.69831.33434.016109.918087433870.795276021.9752760211.5613.53527602TT4.69847.69831369.2373553449240.5858639086540.63466436115871631151212.5WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:08FORECAST2024123-16235.97830.233.089110.509825704590.5145672071.88456720711.5213.404567207TT3.97843.97831369.5807806258940.8423076507330.605895777349711631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2024123-16235.94230.25433.098107.363011604760.5185042171.93850421711.6413.578504217TT3.94243.94231367.7485334165139.4825900608320.604440586356081631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:04FORECAST2024123-16235.97830.233.089108.046381602560.5145672071.88456720711.6413.524567207TT3.97842.97831368.1476745720339.7770241329050.605895777349711631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.74233.06235.402106.938840390650.5645672341.76456723410.7912.554567234TT5.74246.74231367.5004357783439.3000704451960.675030570320681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2024123-16238.06634.12436.095109.607926568530.4421262231.31212622311.1412.452126223TT6.06653.06631369.0571419699340.4515881166290.687177655011081631141210WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:09FORECAST2024123-16237.83233.0835.456109.066809110880.5645672341.76456723410.7912.554567234TT5.83249.83231368.7423953210840.2175564415740.678424180502961631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:08FORECAST2024123-16237.83233.0835.456109.066809110880.5645672341.76456723410.7912.554567234TT5.83249.83231368.7423953210840.2175564415740.678424180502961631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2024123-16237.83233.0835.456107.887238455080.5645672341.76456723410.9312.694567234TT5.83248.83231368.0547844882639.7084142986170.678424180502961631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:03FORECAST2024123-16237.74233.06235.402108.569947034010.5645672341.76456723410.9312.694567234TT5.74245.74231368.4530090550440.0029236776260.675030570320681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:04FORECAST2024123-16238.3932.75635.573113.855208114740.5618113271.68181132710.9212.601811327TT6.3952.3931371.5126515412442.2986502584880.699124986552561641151215WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:05FORECAST2024123-16235.99631.7333.863115.446707007110.5870081912.35700819110.813.157008191TT3.99646.99631372.4259541713642.9953500130660.606622820392891631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2024123-16238.37231.8235.096113.395162635080.5952759122.48527591210.8713.355275912TT6.37249.37231371.2479597933242.0977227787060.698466663991771631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:07FORECAST2024123-16237.41833.1735.294117.93891108040.8874020543.41740205410.6414.057402054TT5.41844.41831373.84874158944.0913134917850.66269464645291631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2024123-16238.55233.04435.798113.961377197780.9594493372.22944933710.8413.069449337TT6.55249.55231371.5736930668342.3450497923620.705020508444631641151215WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:03FORECAST2024123-16235.3332.03633.683114.903446608030.3850395781.9850395789.8811.865039578TT3.3341.3331372.11461196842.7572514483330.579495372806641631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:04FORECAST2024123-16235.3332.03633.683114.903446608030.3850395781.9850395789.8811.865039578TT3.3341.3331372.11461196842.7572514483330.579495372806641631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:05FORECAST2024123-16235.18631.4633.323112.732032269840.1842520681.8542520689.5711.424252068TT3.18639.18631370.8658764829141.8084639554550.573575210822061631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2024123-16234.19630.6532.423120.395775285290.1838583671.8538583679.5911.443858367TT2.19637.19631375.2425653650945.1776195771720.532494378131461631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:07FORECAST2024123-16235.1530.34432.747118.084410175550.3279529331.1579529338.9410.097952933TT3.1538.1531373.9315283990244.1554839770410.572092521900011631141210WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:04FORECAST2024123-16235.83431.65833.746115.392673026930.338582860.968582868.929.88858286TT3.83437.83431372.3950065669742.9716552296430.60006634811562163113127.5WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:04FORECAST2024123-16234.55630.43432.495117.1623375460.338582860.968582868.879.83858286TT2.55634.55631373.406365054143.7491625842940.54749650969907163113127.5WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:06FORECAST2024123-16235.94231.38833.665113.097323014140.6976381721.2776381729.0910.367638172TT3.94237.94231371.0764297865341.9677508424990.604440586356081631141210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:05FORECAST2024123-16237.8533.835.825116.654438366420.8078744521.3178744528.8610.177874452TT5.8540.8531373.1165670274643.5257035717960.679101132513061631141210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:08FORECAST2024123-16237.8533.76435.807121.369876842250.6877956471.1577956478.910.057795647TT5.8539.8531375.7927874222745.6099243276450.679101132513061631141210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:08FORECAST2024123-16237.32831.6434.484116.60581936580.0606299540.2406299548.78.940629954TT5.32840.32831373.0888062988743.5043259546870.65923602645603163112125WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:05FORECAST2024123-16230.1125.39427.752114.6764075919700.038.368.39TT-1.8935.1131371.9843687027842.65783108320.36412399534175162111122WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:05FORECAST2024123-16229.69625.39427.545113.4856679171400.038.228.25TT-2.30436.69631371.3000573502542.1372350060660.34792651492693162111122WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2024123-16233.94427.80630.875114.6247819050500.238.148.37TT1.94435.94431371.9547426142842.6352312507110.52196406596189163112125WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:06FORECAST2024123-16233.22430.77632120.743384773280.3129922950.3329922959.149.472992295TT1.22446.22431375.4390691085945.3317839802990.49181798317529162112124WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:06FORECAST2024123-16233.22430.77632122.522322918370.3129922950.3329922959.219.542992295TT1.22429.22431376.4419919062546.1225472923740.49181798317529162112124WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:08FORECAST2024123-16232.10831.47831.793118.045886299550.0192913490.2692913498.638.899291349TT0.10832.10831373.9096118673544.1384915288030.4452459147072162112124WETL