MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 26, 2024

[ Thursday, January 25, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 27, 2024 ]

DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/27/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.696
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -46

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 110 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.95 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -167

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024118-16737.6100628.9799633.29501109.553586666671.29000000000012.65000000000019.3411.99TT5.61006-46.3899426364.63536493385 39.9471120540120.6955535863097516 31151212.5WETL
2024-01-27 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024118-16737.6100628.9799633.29501109.553586666671.29000000000012.65000000000019.3411.99TT5.61006-46.3899426364.63536493385 39.9471120540120.6955535863097516 31151212.5WETL
2024-01-26 11:00:02FORECAST2024118-16734.41226.20430.308111.966683428951.1618116512.5218116519.3411.861811651TT2.412-49.58826366.060733185640.986606228360.550046059488141631151212.5WETL
2024-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2024118-16734.8825.80830.344112.012653518351.208662072.568662079.3411.90866207TT2.88-49.1226366.0878020916641.0064661329890.572304974518181631151212.5WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:06FORECAST2024118-16735.02425.53830.281111.84790973921.1161423352.4761423359.3411.816142335TT3.024-48.97626365.9907801651540.9353037452910.57911120197171631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 23:00:02FORECAST2024118-16735.58225.80830.695109.200715726111.0523627732.5323627739.3411.872362773TT3.582-49.41826364.426197940139.7956016444040.605245168461611631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 19:00:01FORECAST2024118-16735.02425.53830.281109.288516949731.1161423352.5961423359.3411.936142335TT3.024-49.97626364.4782603197139.833288530760.57911120197171631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2024118-16734.62827.24830.938109.660192050460.9000004862.3800004869.3411.720000486TT2.628-50.37226364.6985192385839.9929096602210.560343344849381631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2024118-16735.40226.58230.992112.368403751761.039370642.519370649.3411.85937064TT3.402-49.59826366.29717428141.1602287727370.596860413015171631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:07FORECAST2024118-16734.80826.00630.407112.554597110880.909449312.359449319.3411.69944931TT2.808-50.19226366.4066805710741.2407563104130.568893642884681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:06FORECAST2024118-16734.80826.00630.407112.554597110880.909449312.359449319.3411.69944931TT2.808-50.19226366.4066805710741.2407563104130.568893642884681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:01FORECAST2024118-16734.80826.00630.407111.375026455080.909449312.499449319.3411.83944931TT2.808-51.19226365.7120611872340.7311904896690.568893642884681631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2024118-16734.62827.24830.938111.237600838930.9000004862.5200004869.3411.860000486TT2.628-51.37226365.6309992710640.6719151512530.560343344849381631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:03FORECAST2024118-16735.27627.75231.514113.21811527220.9259847522.5359847529.3411.875984752TT3.276-49.72426366.7964960487741.5280079710890.590964227191921631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16734.71827.21230.965115.819101289660.7523626112.4023626119.3411.742362611TT2.718-50.28226368.318250111642.6582887165050.564622270069561631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2024118-16734.84426.43830.641115.103791319930.7503941062.4203941069.3411.760394106TT2.844-51.15626367.900746777242.3467707834910.570599967646171631151212.5WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2024118-16733.24226.49229.867116.567578788090.7673232492.3673232499.3411.707323249TT1.242-52.75826368.754300890642.9847960225130.493859835814091621151210WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2024118-16734.01627.0530.533114.72917447190.7803153822.8103153829.212.010315382TT2.016-51.98426367.6817921710942.1838284841380.531084895536451631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2024118-16733.27825.9729.624115.65604297070.9590556362.6590556369.211.859055636TT1.278-54.72226368.2231449741342.5872318779360.495592558525191621151210WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:03FORECAST2024118-16733.27825.9729.624115.65604297070.9590556362.6590556369.211.859055636TT1.278-54.72226368.2231449741342.5872318779360.495592558525191621151210WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16734.12426.45630.29115.355966669840.6350397132.2350397139.211.435039713TT2.124-52.87626368.0480199671542.4565351242320.536264953613841631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2024118-16733.81825.93429.876115.0042100180.6287404972.1987404979.2111.408740497TT1.818-54.18226367.8425642115642.3034435081450.5215750736181631151212.5WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2024118-16733.5325.55629.543115.652607152110.4811026222.2611026229.2311.491102622TT1.53-56.4726368.2211405802442.5857349166270.507722115016011631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2024118-16733.5327.06830.299115.664734054160.5106301971.9706301979.4911.460630197TT1.53-57.4726368.2282151155842.5910185725810.507722115016011631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2024118-16734.3426.1530.245115.715734910340.4830711271.9130711279.4711.383071127TT2.34-57.6626368.2579653710742.6132410994990.546605777849071631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:04FORECAST2024118-16733.45824.72829.093115.825856614140.5929137061.8829137069.5111.392913706TT1.458-57.54226368.3221893618142.6612330928250.504256765534781631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16733.58424.92629.255119.291046932010.4476380371.8576380379.511.357638037TT1.584-58.41626370.3339711904944.1775271378030.510320759022051631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024118-16735.0625.77230.416118.941240347720.4035435251.8935435259.611.493543525TT3.06-56.9426370.1316869362344.0239219361910.580809154224581631151212.5WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:06FORECAST2024118-16734.89825.62830.263118.184226325170.3893702891.7193702899.5311.249370289TT2.898-57.10226369.6933091419843.6919177185380.57315697401941631151212.5WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:04FORECAST2024118-16734.724.60229.651116.860735190780.4334648011.4234648019.7111.133464801TT2.7-58.326368.9248632241443.112830746530.56376707351311631141210WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2024118-16734.6125.44830.029116.085082735750.3791340631.3191340639.7111.029134063TT2.61-55.3926368.473301523942.7742536933160.559486696762621631141210WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024118-16734.725.26829.984116.172385636410.3980317111.3380317119.6510.988031711TT2.7-59.326368.5241711088642.8123321223980.56376707351311631141210WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16735.67227.39231.532119.358139270750.5051183831.4451183839.5210.965118383TT3.672-52.32826370.3727484465144.207002091170.609419603123841631141210WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:05FORECAST2024118-16733.58426.56430.074120.067084644260.5937011081.4737011089.5110.983701108TT1.584-64.41626370.7820929347744.5187249369730.510320759022051631141210WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2024118-16733.4423.4528.445119.042374416990.2421261151.0921261159.6610.752126115TT1.44-62.5626370.1901886682644.0683190449440.503390367755261631141210WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2024118-16733.823.41428.607122.715812442270.0712598810.9912598819.5810.571259881TT1.8-66.226372.3049611633645.6877057854490.520709853064361631141210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024118-16733.29623.07228.184123.3314058414900.989.7110.69TT1.296-70.70426372.6574275667245.9603644390780.49645895310645162113126WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2024118-16733.06223.84628.454124.1744719701301.079.7610.83TT1.062-71.93826373.1392432396746.3343685006190.48519861330882162114128WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2024118-16734.6122.65828.634123.412437007030.2094489321.2094489329.2310.439448932TT2.61-67.3926372.703782033445.996282022480.559486696762621631141210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024118-16737.20225.14231.172121.922834883570.2129922411.2329922419.0110.242992241TT5.202-61.79826371.8501180730645.3370205472590.67810863932231631141210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:06FORECAST2024118-16738.19226.72632.459122.976809195650.3161419031.2461419039.4410.686141903TT6.192-55.80826372.4544657169245.8032617645380.719674787188891641141212WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024118-16738.3924.00831.199124.214633541921.019685592.049685598.9310.97968559TT6.39-64.6126373.1621700032446.3522021986590.727665760048191641151215WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:04FORECAST2024118-16737.9425.62831.784125.670409445991.02362261.99362268.810.7936226TT5.94-65.0626373.9916420117546.9996827809930.709343262268271641151215WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2024118-16738.6633.9836.32119.646578687210.7685043521.6085043528.810.408504352TT6.66-58.3426370.5393820804144.3337693347930.738377180380491641151215WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:05FORECAST2024118-16740.6433.49437.067122.116175724071.5775599072.5875599078.5611.147559907TT8.64-58.3626371.9611006922245.4224671346480.809843836727931641151215WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024118-16739.07434.03436.554121.783098347481.4051188692.3851188698.5310.915118869TT7.074-49.92626371.7698717671545.2752868560490.754371522319361641151215WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:07FORECAST2024118-16737.61628.14832.882128.474846477972.0283475523.4783475528.4411.918347552TT5.616-60.38426375.5809345146348.252702901820.695804400189871631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:05FORECAST2024118-16739.45230.70435.078120.067695938241.5980323593.0080323597.8610.868032359TT7.452-65.54826370.7824455774544.5189939348320.768504155230511641151215WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2024118-16737.32828.0432.684119.05817444711.5346464982.8146464987.810.614646498TT5.328-68.67226370.1993269524644.0752560485040.683539641422061631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:05FORECAST2024118-16735.9628.83232.396115.559013553691.2157486882.1057486887.9410.045748688TT3.96-66.0426368.1665330534642.5449613831390.622691103909651631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16738.8432.48635.663126.857652784631.913386863.683386868.3111.99338686TT6.84-59.1626374.6658425563747.5292293652750.74539621395151641151215WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:07FORECAST2024118-16738.44432.3635.402125.095318442131.9129931593.6029931598.3511.952993159TT6.444-54.55626373.6643331015746.7436587398090.729825332989651641151215WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2024118-16741.7238.46240.091124.522490334272.3366154354.4266154358.0612.486615435TT9.72-42.2826373.337836463946.4889571324930.843203438340291641151215WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:05FORECAST2024118-16741.01837.05839.038125.829304201971.6543316023.5543316029.0412.594331602TT9.018-53.98226374.0819915526347.0704767115560.821984197277391641151215WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:05FORECAST2024118-16739.12834.5236.824135.081338884331.6511819943.5411819949.1212.661181994TT7.128-63.87226379.2804310348651.2337084368130.756418385002951641151215WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2024118-16741.75634.32238.039118.67853110271.1885833192.4085833198.7711.178583319TT9.756-60.24426369.979650638843.9086414757030.844244900681031641151215WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:05FORECAST2024118-16743.08835.8739.479119.669196657741.2354337382.3054337388.5210.825433738TT11.088-55.91226370.5524434920444.3437132322560.879589852799841651151217.5WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024118-16743.08834.84438.966121.143217597931.2472447682.3172447688.711.017244768TT11.088-57.91226371.4020442911444.992838667880.879589852799841651151217.5WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:07FORECAST2024118-16742.5333.11637.823127.017763683990.358267911.248267919.3510.59826791TT10.53-59.4726374.7566093416847.6007464443760.865535639367431651141214WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:05FORECAST2024118-16734.0730.07432.072133.550017258960.2330709921.1330709929.7610.893070992TT2.07-67.9326378.4284419197450.5391249496640.533675637645211631141210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:04FORECAST2024118-16732.66629.9331.298133.769405760140.240157611.130157619.6910.82015761TT0.666-73.33426378.5507076723750.6385032154140.46617421708913162114128WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:05FORECAST2024118-16732.86429.04830.956130.3248310424700.589.9610.54TT0.864-66.13626376.6231524986449.0833487160680.47567948452552162113126WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:04FORECAST2024118-16729.9327.0528.49128.6206284995400.329.459.77TT-2.07-69.0726375.6632409871248.3180421599380.33906652539663162112124WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:07FORECAST2024118-16735.49232.91834.205127.8627951706700.479.149.61TT3.492-59.50826375.2350462098747.9786018543880.60105861857175163112125WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:08FORECAST2024118-16735.56435.02435.294127.395267588700.39.389.68TT3.564-57.43626374.9704700473347.7694633695390.60440881305555163112125WETL