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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 25, 2024

[ Wednesday, January 24, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, January 26, 2024 ]

DAY 117 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/26/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.385
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -51

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.58 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.89 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.95 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-26 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024117-16830.7099427.8400229.27498111.577860833330.579999999999931.889999999999910.3212.21TT-1.29006-51.2900625364.9481160713 40.720130106390.3851793770741616 21151210WETL
2024-01-26 03:00:05OBSERVATION2024117-16830.7099427.8400229.27498111.577860833330.579999999999931.889999999999910.3212.21TT-1.29006-51.2900625364.9481160713 40.720130106390.3851793770741616 21151210WETL
2024-01-25 11:00:02FORECAST2024117-16830.00224.36827.185111.45473095520.6996066772.00960667710.3212.329606677TT-1.998-51.99825364.8752490011340.6670727096340.353381235123851621151210WETL
2024-01-25 07:00:06FORECAST2024117-16829.91224.49427.203111.687629305720.6736224111.98362241110.3212.303622411TT-2.088-52.08825365.0130567797540.7674429773660.349405835382911621151210WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:05FORECAST2024117-16829.91224.49427.203111.687629305720.6736224111.98362241110.3212.303622411TT-2.088-52.08825365.0130567797540.7674429773660.349405835382911621151210WETL
2024-01-24 23:00:01FORECAST2024117-16829.91224.49427.203110.45759401820.6736224112.12362241110.3212.443622411TT-2.088-53.08825364.2843127070240.2379687201890.349405835382911621151210WETL
2024-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2024117-16830.00224.8927.446110.538382411080.7039373882.15393738810.3212.473937388TT-1.998-52.99825364.3322463160640.2726971679730.353381235123851621151210WETL
2024-01-24 15:00:02FORECAST2024117-16830.54225.23227.887110.427381727950.6881893482.13818934810.3212.458189348TT-1.458-52.45825364.2663845341640.2249830956130.377556737800421621151210WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2024117-16830.57825.44828.013113.532076139410.7291342522.17913425210.3212.499134252TT-1.422-52.42225366.1015559028141.5642697195140.379186847924291621151210WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2024117-16830.23625.86228.049113.997452737210.7437011892.20370118910.3212.523701189TT-1.764-52.76425366.3753928965941.7658615358050.363791412569141621151210WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2024117-16830.43424.56627.5114.018596059240.7700791562.13007915610.3212.450079156TT-1.566-52.56625366.3878263690241.7750255757910.372679579295181621151210WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:01FORECAST2024117-16829.98424.74627.365113.404389628231.0496068662.41960686610.3212.739606866TT-2.016-53.01625366.0263659725941.508996620960.352584858436441621151210WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2024117-16829.13825.10627.122112.275167631630.8685044062.08850440610.3212.408504406TT-2.862-54.86225365.3603457894341.0208940694590.315935322404531621151210WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:03FORECAST2024117-16829.13825.10627.122112.275167631630.8685044062.08850440610.3212.408504406TT-2.862-54.86225365.3603457894341.0208940694590.315935322404531621151210WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2024117-16829.60625.37627.491113.146564207360.7535437141.99354371410.3212.313543714TT-2.394-54.39425365.8744676307941.3974389436210.336014749455491621151210WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:05FORECAST2024117-16828.83225.95227.392112.827109760460.7279531491.96795314910.3212.287953149TT-3.168-55.16825365.6861223943141.2593082692580.303089301731181621151210WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2024117-16828.8525.82627.338113.926090847350.9299217622.19992176210.3212.519921762TT-3.15-57.1525366.3334231278841.7349348436870.303838459791671621151210WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2024117-16829.60625.19627.401113.996921644780.7665358471.82653584710.6312.456535847TT-2.394-58.39425366.3750805755341.765631352970.336014749455491621151210WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2024117-16829.4825.26827.374113.877949651740.7704728571.78047285710.6312.410472857TT-2.52-58.5225366.3051057512641.7140743899180.330559493641281621151210WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:04FORECAST2024117-16829.01224.49426.753113.493426841170.5681105431.67811054310.6312.308110543TT-2.988-57.98825366.0787993139541.5475374280410.31061766192411621151210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:04FORECAST2024117-16828.90424.54826.726117.607483616360.6673231951.78732319510.6312.417323195TT-3.096-59.09625368.4886492521243.3370227797340.306090868619241621151210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:07FORECAST2024117-16829.42625.12427.275117.653575352420.744094891.8940948910.7112.60409489TT-2.574-58.57425368.5155055572843.3571668016170.328232409954041621151210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:06FORECAST2024117-16829.49824.83627.167117.00666915570.5137798051.74377980510.6312.373779805TT-2.502-58.50225368.1382844910643.0746344569910.331336650839661621151210WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2024117-16829.78625.71827.752115.170174593840.303149771.3731497710.8412.21314977TT-2.214-60.21425367.0640122639642.2748263795560.34386798452985162114128WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2024117-16830.21826.83428.526114.678923741920.2724410921.35244109210.8112.162441092TT-1.782-56.78225366.7758006152942.0614540691430.36298693583055162114128WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024117-16828.43625.50226.969114.625406252220.232283591.3322835910.7712.10228359TT-3.564-60.56425366.7443807449442.0382236336080.28682132875938162114128WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024117-16829.73226.20427.968117.430030306680.259842661.2498426610.7211.96984266TT-2.268-55.26825368.3852230443443.2594879066320.34150474602035162114128WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2024117-16828.92224.87226.897117.604641422120.2342520951.19425209510.7111.904252095TT-3.078-65.07825368.4869930858243.3357806905710.30684330795868162114128WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2024117-16829.42623.75626.591118.044888310340.1314961341.14149613410.8812.021496134TT-2.574-62.57425368.7433855471343.5282717620890.32823240995404162114128WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2024117-16828.5823.75626.168122.456267708130.1055118681.23551186810.7712.005511868TT-3.42-67.4225371.2967316247945.4676119669980.29268901769853162114128WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024117-16827.91423.07225.493123.357088241490.129921331.2799213310.9212.19992133TT-4.086-71.08625371.8146262533845.8659696602160.26603108089687162114128WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2024117-16828.41823.79226.105124.206353570130.216535551.3865355510.9512.33653555TT-3.582-71.58225372.3017970546.2422486391860.2860918013162162114128WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2024117-16827.21222.51424.863122.566822067780.200787511.2107875110.5311.74078751TT-4.788-68.78825371.3603547186845.5164585198340.23932694170215161114126WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024117-16828.79623.6326.213121.825552201380.2267717761.19677177610.3411.536771776TT-3.204-66.20425370.9334183094545.1891685154940.30159346809763162114128WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:06FORECAST2024117-16830.1125.5227.815122.633991905440.1657481211.19574812110.6811.875748121TT-1.89-60.8925371.3990016650245.5461421638780.35817286941554162114128WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024117-16829.69623.2726.483121.806415639950.295275751.1952757510.2711.46527575TT-2.304-70.30425370.9223859070945.1807263079610.3399326896847162114128WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:04FORECAST2024117-16830.7424.90827.824121.275958653440.251968641.1119686410.1711.28196864TT-1.26-70.2625370.6163590617244.9468542378590.38654856037495162114128WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2024117-16833.63828.45431.046120.282734687210.3362206541.02622065410.1211.146220654TT1.638-64.36225370.0422465432244.5096933640160.522634316206581631141210WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2024117-16833.5329.08431.307120.727770692640.5086616921.2686616929.8111.078661692TT1.53-66.4725370.2996694786644.7054535843780.51751022101131631141210WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:06FORECAST2024117-16833.56629.62431.595119.560537807360.4929136521.2329136529.7911.022913652TT1.566-56.43425369.6238852208744.1924305034530.519218616084361631141210WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:07FORECAST2024117-16833.33226.99630.164122.612688278530.7870082991.6470082999.7511.397008299TT1.332-64.66825371.3867450897945.5367272064710.508109140730471631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:05FORECAST2024117-16834.44828.5831.514118.193524107960.4673230871.8073230878.9710.777323087TT2.448-71.55225368.8298838435143.5933037677920.560887842668391631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2024117-16834.50227.66231.082117.477291293930.3937011.6637018.9310.593701TT2.502-73.49825368.4127730118843.2801346515220.563421954791881631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:04FORECAST2024117-16833.67428.23830.956115.721631665120.0318897811.3318897819.0110.341889781TT1.674-69.32625367.3871181136642.514636760860.524341558660451631141210WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024117-16832.32428.5830.452125.844928250320.8437012432.2837012439.3111.593701243TT0.324-64.67625373.2387809816746.9702076128750.460289659003041621151210WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:07FORECAST2024117-16833.58427.46430.524125.685128042130.7759846712.1459846719.411.545984671TT1.584-60.41625373.1475741625346.8991006372290.520072683238691631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2024117-16838.13828.43633.287125.110641370931.3763786962.6163786969.0411.656378696TT6.138-50.86225372.8193768953446.6436713588870.723287851751281641151215WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:05FORECAST2024117-16836.93228.34632.639124.479531226430.7807090832.6607090839.7912.450709083TT4.932-62.06825372.4582788610146.3634319540190.673290354546011631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:05FORECAST2024117-16834.46628.431.433126.492060090130.7523626112.7223626119.812.522362611TT2.466-69.53425373.6077566403247.2584148030870.561732829288841631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2024117-16836.10426.63631.37119.44565750270.3137796971.8737796979.6311.503779697TT4.104-68.89625369.5572654504444.1420105566280.63698712271511631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:05FORECAST2024117-16838.89428.16633.53120.651130257740.4602364691.4502364699.6511.100236469TT6.894-66.10625370.2553589595944.671727542460.752593512760871641141212WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024117-16837.86827.17632.522122.030687197930.4720474991.4620474999.8211.282047499TT5.868-68.13225371.0516468296545.2796874485480.712424688130761641141212WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:07FORECAST2024117-16835.27627.78831.532126.334837162910.0133858341.20338583410.5511.753385834TT3.276-68.72425373.5181684902147.1883569935990.59940931979111631141210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:05FORECAST2024117-16836.17629.26432.72131.8122903923301.0511.1212.17TT4.176-68.82425376.6183168272449.6429229447040.640199037480761631141210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024117-16834.14227.51830.83131.792431112040.0125984321.04259843211.0512.092598432TT2.142-72.85825376.6071545284949.6339724694970.546483713942791631141210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:05FORECAST2024117-16837.47229.01233.242130.332309442470.1031496620.95314966211.112.053149662TT5.472-65.52825375.7849199799548.976916474640.69613736008444163113127.5WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:04FORECAST2024117-16838.64226.67232.657128.620628499540.015748040.6457480410.6311.27574804TT6.642-66.35825374.8171347191148.2092154399690.74301246684894164113129WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2024117-16842.78227.9535.366127.949387170670.0311023790.76110237910.3611.121102379TT10.782-62.21825374.4364645040147.9089161676390.874087975506941651131210.5WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024117-16841.57629.62435.6127.431281988700.5510.6411.19TT9.576-60.42425374.1421957756147.6774196537520.84187206852548164113129WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024117-16838.42632.23435.33127.370169008290.0795276020.38952760210.9511.339527602TT6.426-53.57425374.1074598336847.6501303862760.73464932767954164112126WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:05FORECAST2024117-16830.90230.03830.47128.581640511460.1098425790.59984257910.7211.319842579TT-1.098-65.09825374.7950418428948.1917613357220.39395131934955162113126WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:04FORECAST2024117-16830.12827.53628.832134.565994203530.0877953231.37779532310.6812.057795323TT-1.872-72.87225378.1606509868250.8875639686940.35897367463882162114128WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024117-16830.23628.59829.417133.869089469100.8511.6612.51TT-1.764-66.76425377.7713375418350.571904984250.36379141256914162113126WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024117-16830.23628.59829.417135.3986623755800.8912.2713.16TT-1.764-72.76425378.6249035756151.2653054862190.36379141256914162113126WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:06FORECAST2024117-16831.78431.69431.739139.9782473687700.9712.2113.18TT-0.216-80.21625381.1607661308553.3542160087360.43486285954785162113126WETL