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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 24, 2024

[ Tuesday, January 23, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 25, 2024 ]

DAY 116 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/25/2024 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.435
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -58

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.78 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.55 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.73 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 109 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.73 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.66 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-25 07:00:05OBSERVATION2024116-16932.4199426.4599629.43995109.345253750.780000000000092.18000000000019.5511.73TT0.41994-57.5800624362.73138970493 39.6629558503750.4352829240088616 21151210WETL
2024-01-25 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024116-16932.4199426.4599629.43995109.345253750.780000000000092.18000000000019.5511.73TT0.41994-57.5800624362.73138970493 39.6629558503750.4352829240088616 21151210WETL
2024-01-24 11:00:02FORECAST2024116-16931.125.62828.364110.985754769540.9228351442.3228351449.5511.872835144TT-0.9-58.924363.7092685778840.3665476897950.368643254262531621151210WETL
2024-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.84825.4328.139111.372583364170.9271658552.3271658559.5511.877165855TT-1.152-59.15224363.9392584173740.5328553975830.356293371627751621151210WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2024116-16930.61425.98828.301111.170714312780.8330713162.2330713169.5511.783071316TT-1.386-59.38624363.8192648970840.4460475593580.344958659941971621151210WETL
2024-01-23 23:00:01FORECAST2024116-16931.98225.05228.517109.399327124640.980315492.240315499.5511.79031549TT-0.018000000000001-59.01824362.7636870422539.6861032676750.412867039028261621151210WETL
2024-01-23 19:00:01FORECAST2024116-16930.99224.90827.95108.855008596630.8283469042.0883469049.5511.638346904TT-1.008-60.00824362.43837001639.453231883840.363332962554031621151210WETL
2024-01-23 15:00:01FORECAST2024116-16930.99224.90827.95108.855008596630.8283469042.0883469049.5511.638346904TT-1.008-60.00824362.43837001639.453231883840.363332962554031621151210WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2024116-16931.33424.92628.13110.198980194220.8519689642.1119689649.5511.661968964TT-0.666-59.66624363.2407921347140.0287648581860.380234045710961621151210WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:05FORECAST2024116-16931.17226.5128.841109.968333281390.8405516352.1105516359.5511.660551635TT-0.828-59.82824363.1032783663739.9298623309590.372197502684581621151210WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2024116-16930.39825.26827.833110.173336050350.8456697482.1356697489.5511.685669748TT-1.602-61.60224363.2255068453140.0177658277270.334617577741781621151210WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2024116-16930.86625.48428.175110.757261896120.685039742.235039749.5511.78503974TT-1.134-64.13424363.5733114094340.2683844702130.357170706050921621151210WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2024116-16931.13625.37628.256110.615762215670.657480672.187480679.5511.73748067TT-0.864-63.86424363.4890771080940.2076213213840.370418996289671621151210WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2024116-16930.52424.76427.644111.046069705870.7216539332.2916539339.5511.841653933TT-1.476-63.47624363.7451438353640.3924685975150.34063525261951621151210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2024116-16930.79426.00628.4114.738586568890.7448822922.3048822929.5511.854882292TT-1.206-64.20624365.9310138996841.9864073165690.353665942808251621151210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:06FORECAST2024116-16930.45225.8828.166114.502397264450.7511815082.4111815089.5511.961181508TT-1.548-63.54824365.791809120541.8840390439970.337191496679381621151210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:05FORECAST2024116-16930.61426.20428.409114.801725423120.8240161932.4140161939.5511.964016193TT-1.386-64.38624365.9682124070342.0137822343410.344958659941971621151210WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2024116-16931.06424.94428.004113.826691436710.6905515542.1905515549.8212.010551554TT-0.936-65.93624365.3931014514241.5914878120120.366870311509881621151210WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2024116-16931.89226.31229.102113.52923897570.665354692.165354699.8211.98535469TT-0.108-63.10824365.2173693114941.4628499986390.408292888312081621151210WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024116-16931.08225.05228.067113.573920844680.7141736142.1541736149.8211.974173614TT-0.918-64.91824365.2437754178641.482167638320.367756430802221621151210WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024116-16932.55826.63629.597116.290537442080.6755909161.9855909169.8211.805590916TT0.558-61.44224366.8436253363742.660442347570.442396432628391621151210WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.30825.44827.878116.547192214340.6476381451.9576381459.8111.767638145TT-1.692-69.69224366.9942026220342.7721438745360.330344972295521621151210WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2024116-16931.44225.5228.481117.434692181260.7173232222.0173232229.9711.987323222TT-0.558-67.55824367.5141357465943.1589094036610.385620845080361621151210WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2024116-16931.9126.0628.985121.939350663980.8129925652.0529925659.9512.002992565TT-0.09-72.0924370.1351490345845.1340397311910.409206740835781621151210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2024116-16930.84826.58228.715122.698213598750.8547248712.14472487110.0312.174724871TT-1.152-75.15224370.5737456489445.4687365977240.356293371627751621151210WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2024116-16930.86626.40228.634123.102431879580.8511815622.18118156210.0412.221181562TT-1.134-76.13424370.8070250192145.6472465378960.357170706050921621151210WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024116-16931.24426.47428.859121.508270314870.8027563391.7627563399.8811.642756339TT-0.756-71.75624369.8856226740844.9441622254660.375762668063891621151210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:06FORECAST2024116-16931.5526.7829.165120.644211835890.7937012161.6637012169.7511.413701216TT-0.45-71.4524369.3846480281144.5641197256290.39102978973271621151210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2024116-16931.85627.6829.768121.804940286870.7610240331.9210240339.8911.811024033TT-0.144-67.14424370.0573763022945.0748166232170.40646668321931621151210WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:04FORECAST2024116-16931.38827.73429.561120.188927722160.7334649631.6834649639.5911.273464963TT-0.612-75.61224369.1202350710244.3641652537370.382924615860491621151210WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2024116-16931.89228.2230.056119.97275527050.7236224381.6036224389.5311.133622438TT-0.108-77.10824368.9945826356944.2692967586940.408292888312081621151210WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2024116-16932.23428.61630.425118.648376635310.496063261.656063269.2510.90606326TT0.234-73.76624368.223266130543.6890927657340.425735818047011621151210WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2024116-16932.68426.70829.696118.25063953630.4992128681.6192128689.0510.669212868TT0.684-76.31624367.9911174529743.515184982490.448904861884661621151210WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2024116-16935.0628.6731.865117.263459625110.4885829411.5785829419.0510.628582941TT3.06-65.9424367.4139120694943.0842264436650.572248039432731631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024116-16931.80228.29230.047118.482533593520.6594491751.6594491759.0510.709449175TT-0.198-74.19824368.1264964182743.6165599785440.403731196999471621151210WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.84828.70629.777115.852572996230.9397642871.6897642878.7210.409764287TT-1.152-82.15224366.5864483454342.4699832663690.356293371627751621151210WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.34427.39228.868115.413335423880.893701271.623701278.6810.30370127TT-1.656-83.65624366.32823626242.2791636069460.33205140244481621151210WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.77628.11229.444115.557866957570.8649610971.6849610978.7310.414961097TT-1.224-79.22424366.4132329917842.3419316295560.35279167192021621151210WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024116-16932.05428.52630.29121.232639077920.9259847522.0859847528.7610.845984752TT0.054000000000002-72.94624369.7259331534644.8228506117390.416534927235451621151210WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:07FORECAST2024116-16932.50428.430.452121.91077601250.9145674232.1345674238.7410.874567423TT0.504-70.49624370.1186173495245.1214478577530.439611753070561621151210WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024116-16934.32230.48832.405119.023156377960.7074806971.8674806978.5110.377480697TT2.322-64.67824368.4418006935643.8531060601280.534126947347791631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2024116-16932.82830.25431.541120.610038011061.1200793452.6700793459.111.770079345TT0.828-75.17224369.3648116884444.5491039776910.456359836298911621151210WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024116-16932.77429.46231.118122.341421081121.1429140032.8129140039.0611.872914003TT0.774-80.22624370.3676371710345.3113030539630.453562276859671621151210WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2024116-16931.9127.87829.894119.68289990270.9149611242.2449611249.0511.294961124TT-0.09-81.0924368.8259929442844.1421643950650.409206740835781621151210WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024116-16934.30428.95831.631120.760704391140.6070869421.3870869429.3510.737086942TT2.304-80.69624369.4522536823144.615314393570.533191781021671631141210WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:08FORECAST2024116-16933.56627.5930.578122.346452797930.6047247361.4147247369.510.914724736TT1.566-82.43424370.3705451436345.313522419160.49475145351464162114128WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:07FORECAST2024116-16933.38627.87830.632126.361228267090.8775595291.8475595299.9911.837559529TT1.386-79.61424372.6789932765447.0921753397640.485369494167821621151210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:05FORECAST2024116-16934.50228.00431.253131.955757592330.8968508781.49685087810.7712.266850878TT2.502-81.49824375.8567755324349.5964655615930.543467402495891631141210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024116-16933.11627.89630.506131.741483127810.8846461471.47464614710.7112.184646147TT1.116-82.88424375.7358940298349.5000039438450.47131334551202162114128WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024116-16934.12430.70432.414129.783461454220.4822837251.30228372510.7512.052283725TT2.124-78.87624374.6282364929148.620549290540.523830887622611631141210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024116-16933.7130.03831.874128.629866933840.3000001620.93000016210.4311.360000162TT1.71-81.2924373.9730617774448.1041051732710.50225936119096163113127.5WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2024116-16933.51229.22831.37128.027593890430.4389766151.01897661510.1711.188976615TT1.512-81.48824373.6302421232747.834980903740.49193632455802162114128WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024116-16934.1630.23632.198127.94227318870.2980316570.81803165710.4711.288031657TT2.16-77.8424373.5816343295347.7968835176690.52570428522865163113127.5WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024116-16936.62632.61234.619126.922598757390.1724410380.45244103810.9111.362441038TT4.626-68.37424372.9999027972847.3421169992860.65053634483741163112125WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:05FORECAST2024116-16934.75430.45232.603127.604687248270.2645670720.55456707210.7611.314567072TT2.754-72.24624373.3892059555847.6462128478410.55650265445595163113127.5WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2024116-16932.82829.01230.92133.802573516590.8523626651.68236266510.3912.072362665TT0.828-79.17224376.8959216806950.4296442687830.456359836298911621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024116-16933.74629.9331.838133.86908946910.7003940791.30039407911.3112.610394079TT1.746-73.25424376.9332572804850.4597119427610.504136316949771631141210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024116-16933.69229.60631.649135.398662375580.7488193021.34881930211.9113.258819302TT1.692-79.30824377.7900730357551.1522705478120.501320861959291631141210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024116-16934.05229.17431.613139.978247368770.9708666661.22086666612.0613.280866666TT2.052-87.94824380.3355902008453.2387093282820.520082553043671631141210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024116-16930.63228.02229.327140.0277595870300.7512.2913.04TT-1.368-84.36824380.3629496056553.2613716631920.3458257965467162113126WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024116-16930.50627.69829.102139.2810809388200.7712.3713.14TT-1.494-86.49424379.9499852351652.9198446462420.33977305425594162113126WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024116-16934.10632.66633.386148.426357625870.0181102461.75811024612.4214.178110246TT2.106-80.89424384.9543979525457.1373791401550.522893988647491631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:06FORECAST2024116-16935.6934.05234.871143.205604432790.574803461.3348034612.213.53480346TT3.69-74.3124382.1117815103354.7205486320740.604278736263381631141210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:08FORECAST2024116-16935.6934.05234.871141.037560502830.574803461.2848034612.6513.93480346TT3.69-82.3124380.9201942096753.7240549375960.604278736263381631141210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:09FORECAST2024116-16931.49631.4631.478141.985071160520.1429134631.33291346311.9413.272913463TT-0.504-74.50424381.4417666530654.1590363818280.38832261082308162114128WETL