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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 23, 2024

[ Monday, January 22, 2024 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 24, 2024 ]

DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2024 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.470
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -64

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.53 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 108 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 361.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.13 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-24 07:00:03OBSERVATION2024115-17033.3100425.1629.23502108.334757083330.529999999999972.2510.3212.57TT1.31004-63.6899623361.22937442205 39.1336965293780.4701403008925716 21151210WETL
2024-01-24 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024115-17033.3100425.1629.23502108.334757083330.529999999999972.2510.3212.57TT1.31004-63.6899623361.22937442205 39.1336965293780.4701403008925716 21151210WETL
2024-01-23 11:00:01FORECAST2024115-17032.30625.0728.688107.255433173780.3929135982.11291359810.3212.432913598TT0.306-64.69423360.5796558000138.6741271764840.425655786822671621151210WETL
2024-01-23 07:00:05FORECAST2024115-17032.3626.04229.201107.057698515630.4035435252.12354352510.3212.443543525TT0.36-64.6423360.4604326617238.5900643267130.428029498253861621151210WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.124.90828.004107.121096707140.4157482562.13574825610.3212.455748256TT-0.9-65.923360.4986648108238.6170123359950.373495867990741621151210WETL
2024-01-22 23:00:01FORECAST2024115-17031.44225.55628.499108.244126276560.3685041362.39850413610.3212.718504136TT-0.558-68.55823361.1748860402939.0950599724680.388098481247511621151210WETL
2024-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2024115-17031.44225.46628.454108.216538375550.3484253852.37842538510.3212.698425385TT-0.558-68.55823361.158297356639.0833007455410.388098481247511621151210WETL
2024-01-22 15:00:01FORECAST2024115-17031.58624.7128.148108.3549618050.3929135982.42291359810.3212.742913598TT-0.414-68.41423361.2415200452539.1423111068830.394295940116941621151210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2024115-17031.20826.07828.643111.967298997940.3767718572.40677185710.3212.726771857TT-0.792-68.79223363.4030098650940.6892534623150.378088748921961621151210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:06FORECAST2024115-17030.79426.04228.418111.702932946540.4035435252.51354352510.3212.833543525TT-1.206-68.20623363.2454946559840.5755871326920.360581849555051621151210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:05FORECAST2024115-17030.86625.1628.013111.617137133810.4125986482.44259864810.3212.762598648TT-1.134-69.13423363.1943528537840.5387138887060.363606804456091621151210WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2024115-17030.2925.35827.824111.058930966550.3751970532.61519705310.3212.935197053TT-1.71-70.7123362.8613409152340.2989926111360.339660070328331621151210WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2024115-17031.98226.52829.255110.962595872350.4137797512.62377975110.3212.943779751TT-0.018000000000001-69.01823362.8038220010740.2576538816470.411472944758211621151210WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2024115-17031.29825.0728.184110.754113371860.3921261962.56212619610.3212.882126196TT-0.702-69.70223362.6792948974240.1682237446960.381929381697681621151210WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.0927.08629.588113.702810953030.3118111922.43181119210.3212.751811192TT0.090000000000003-67.9123364.4344445272341.4372207508520.416188685333281621151210WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2024115-17030.05626.34828.202113.873151065480.3059056772.41590567710.3212.735905677TT-1.944-73.94423364.5354347926241.5107986348590.330107105342841621151210WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:05FORECAST2024115-17030.48824.96227.725114.45347031490.2909450392.57094503910.3212.890945039TT-1.512-72.51223364.8791633118841.7616864866430.347824849238321621151210WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2024115-17031.08225.728.391118.488995978910.318897812.3888978110.4212.80889781TT-0.918-77.91823367.2554819726543.5157333266910.372732111190011621151210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2024115-17030.48826.92428.706118.954784560930.3027560692.52275606910.4212.942756069TT-1.512-79.51223367.5281968367743.7192374747850.347824849238321621151210WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2024115-17030.43426.4228.427119.332439385110.3236222222.57362222210.4212.993622222TT-1.566-80.56623367.7490734805943.8843940200540.345590892140181621151210WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024115-17031.31627.01429.165118.061206422850.2090552312.03905523110.4212.459055231TT-0.684-76.68423367.0047307834443.3290212791870.382698917850631621151210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2024115-17031.71228.52630.119117.312259856050.1834646661.88346466610.3612.243464666TT-0.288-77.28823366.5650750554543.0025773390570.399740809546141621151210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2024115-17033.58428.7631.172118.629386373670.2728347932.28283479310.3912.672834793TT1.584-73.41623367.3377132086343.5770475098480.482367284184571621151210WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2024115-17031.26227.35629.309116.832683774050.1744095432.3044095439.8612.164409543TT-0.738-80.73823366.2831089053442.7938386345150.380391710478141621151210WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2024115-17031.98227.42829.705116.680395355010.1429134632.1929134639.8412.032913463TT-0.018000000000001-83.01823366.1934992471642.7276022685920.411472944758211621151210WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2024115-17032.88228.61630.749116.434262361840.1944882942.2744882949.7612.034488294TT0.882-80.11823366.0485961957942.6205982866440.45109715724991621151210WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.28828.27430.281116.040927766660.2614174642.0614174649.7311.791417464TT0.288-82.71223365.8168446948342.449726051060.424865143523141621151210WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2024115-17033.67429.35431.514115.287247322550.2472442282.0372442289.7211.757244228TT1.674-75.32623365.3721311620242.1227472500440.486388219663131621151210WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024115-17032.25228.5830.416115.460192708470.1984253041.9184253049.7511.668425304TT0.252-79.74823365.4742538699942.1977277818120.423284766308811621151210WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.38829.51630.452111.20162645820.4023624221.5723624229.5211.092362422TT-0.612-86.61223362.9465144296940.3602427219150.385781666226141621151210WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.13628.52629.831110.911741869140.3799214651.5699214659.4611.029921465TT-0.864-87.86423362.7734528619840.2358355608030.375024869924531621151210WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.29828.83230.065111.19400823040.4417325221.5717325229.611.171732522TT-0.702-83.70223362.941967965640.3569721731220.381929381697681621151210WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024115-17032.77430.09231.433116.706180907340.5145672071.8345672079.7111.544567207TT0.774-79.22623366.2086744376642.7388158087580.446308314647161621151210WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024115-17033.6228.79631.208117.443540102310.4586616651.8286616659.7511.578661665TT1.62-77.3823366.6422012488343.0597580655670.48397546610531621151210WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024115-17034.80830.61432.711115.793283605170.5334648551.6234648559.6711.293464855TT2.808-73.19223365.6708147145242.3422243543710.537035104466151631151212.5WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2024115-17033.63828.90431.271114.858789293240.7625988371.99259883710.2812.272598837TT1.638-82.36223365.1189371952141.9371190742780.484779656468751621151210WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.14428.74230.443116.319636754990.8263783992.15637839910.1912.346378399TT0.144-86.85623365.9810830541142.5707866400510.418551132364551621151210WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2024115-17031.87428.2230.047114.754932827080.653543661.7835436610.2212.00354366TT-0.126-87.12623365.0575225159441.8921514743370.406769956423731621151210WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.03628.36430.2117.685056452170.3751970531.28519705310.4611.745197053TT0.036000000000001-88.96423366.7840231940943.1649984753490.41382926200002162114128WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:07FORECAST2024115-17031.08227.03229.057119.106288134080.3874017841.28740178410.6411.927401784TT-0.918-89.91823367.6168312459643.7854762253170.37273211119001162114128WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:06FORECAST2024115-17032.8129.5731.19121.737587090850.3094489861.74944898610.8312.579448986TT0.81-87.1923369.1507968156744.9395272770060.447903760858971621151210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.5527.46429.507126.802631206950.145669371.5256693711.4612.98566937TT-0.45-90.4523372.0748541821347.1800705162360.392743997820511621151210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024115-17033.06229.01231.037126.460235177550.1472441741.50724417411.4112.917244174TT1.062-89.93823371.8783718070447.0278263561630.45909405969731621151210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024115-17033.27829.8431.559127.059411546330.3712600431.51126004311.6813.191260043TT1.278-86.72223372.2220943025547.2943202666240.468711952964711621151210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024115-17033.76429.55231.658126.8604633020.3342521490.90425214911.7812.684252149TT1.764-89.23623372.1080239967547.205796322620.49041053946438162113126WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2024115-17033.4427.93230.686125.421461241620.2909450390.65094503911.7212.370945039TT1.44-88.5623371.2812295218846.566634338220.47593768610557162113126WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:07FORECAST2024115-17034.48429.42631.955126.236115211580.2476379290.82763792911.7812.607637929TT2.484-85.51623371.7496690401146.9282340508130.52258983681413163113127.5WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024115-17036.9530.72233.836126.168384068810.1413386591.13133865911.6812.811338659TT4.95-79.0523371.7107594455646.8981458602370.63044525217831631141210WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024115-17035.83431.74833.791125.968146982950.2307087861.11070878611.5612.670708786TT3.834-81.16623371.5956898407946.8092204760970.582368421548291631141210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2024115-17033.87230.68632.279127.742572571470.4444884291.45448842911.3912.844488429TT1.872-86.12823372.6133575861747.5985888725490.49523857480859162114128WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024115-17033.67429.89431.784129.17637737160.1503937821.04039378212.4913.530393782TT1.674-81.32623373.4323287461348.2386354208640.48638821966313162114128WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:08FORECAST2024115-17033.47629.55231.514132.329513093420.1433071641.04330716413.0914.133307164TT1.476-86.52423375.2229025167849.6530639915430.47754456398033162114128WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024115-17032.64828.45430.551132.9492654513400.8313.113.93TT0.648-96.35223375.5731585897849.9321755577520.44073126076347162113126WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.9929.67831.334140.027759587030.1370079481.38700794813.2714.657007948TT0.99-89.0123379.534736205353.1453987962820.45589312793067162114128WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024115-17032.25228.47230.362139.281080938820.1401575561.39015755613.3714.760157556TT0.252-90.74823379.1201995848352.8042712039160.42328476630881162114128WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024115-17034.19630.14632.171148.347677103770.7082680992.73826809913.0415.778268099TT2.196-88.80423384.1009420908156.980482532540.509724036474191631151212.5WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024115-17033.94429.73231.838139.385737529750.1629922141.62299221412.9614.582992214TT1.944-84.05623379.1783495956652.8520539137040.498457696221651621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:08FORECAST2024115-17033.85429.31831.586141.158395702830.1625985131.60259851313.3814.982598513TT1.854-92.14623380.1609414023153.6629085972280.494433834709981621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024115-17033.94429.1231.532140.730982792240.7192917271.64929172713.114.749291727TT1.944-80.05623379.9244292519953.4671383154140.498457696221651621151210WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2024115-17032.01829.13830.578133.4341500403500.9711.8612.83TT0.018000000000001-79.98223375.8468093023150.1507995446310.41304347373899162113126WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:05FORECAST2024115-17031.02829.13830.083133.1563259818100.9712.1313.1TT-0.972-70.97223375.6900570355150.0255077027460.37044385079048162113126WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024115-17032.57630.7431.658133.777439572420.4381892131.49818921312.0113.508189213TT0.576-81.42423376.0403453938950.3057145827220.43754956987032162114128WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:04FORECAST2024115-17031.98227.48229.732128.3774604265300.7511.3312.08TT-0.018000000000001-73.01823372.9763654645747.8817585974580.41147294475821162113126WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:09FORECAST2024115-17032.52228.56230.542130.9408804552500.7711.3712.14TT0.522-80.47823374.4361053850449.0289933133520.43516593710573162113126WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:07FORECAST2024115-17033.33233.04433.188132.1591401857701.1710.7611.93TT1.332-82.66823375.1265187761949.5763981823410.4711195040038162114128WETL