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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 22, 2024

[ Sunday, January 21, 2024 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 23, 2024 ]

DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.496
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -70

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.87 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.34 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 37.94 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-23 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024114-17133.8931.6799632.78498105.744539166670.871.9510.3912.34TT1.89-70.1122358.76014156166 37.9369258408060.4957318872108816 21151210WETL
2024-01-23 03:00:03OBSERVATION2024114-17133.8931.6799632.78498105.744539166670.871.9510.3912.34TT1.89-70.1122358.76014156166 37.9369258408060.4957318872108816 21151210WETL
2024-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2024114-17130.5628.97629.768110.724593259221.1803155982.26031559810.3912.650315598TT-1.44-73.4422361.7660508551240.0563988359290.355813724068711621151210WETL
2024-01-22 07:00:05FORECAST2024114-17131.83829.26430.551110.373373684271.2629928082.34299280810.3912.732992808TT-0.162-72.16222361.5553023072139.9060784890830.408306766775941621151210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:05FORECAST2024114-17131.13629.10230.119110.219224453411.1834652062.26346520610.3912.653465206TT-0.864-72.86422361.4627460111439.8401435341460.37920166673981621151210WETL
2024-01-21 23:00:01FORECAST2024114-17131.69428.1329.912109.720828403841.1161423352.46614233510.3912.856142335TT-0.306-74.30622361.1632444185839.6271303666250.402289317357571621151210WETL
2024-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2024114-17132.30628.9430.623109.563544518931.0921265742.44212657410.3912.832126574TT0.306-73.69422361.0686489377439.5599609922810.428006138310391621151210WETL
2024-01-21 15:00:01FORECAST2024114-17132.28830.14631.217109.393907864091.0527564742.40275647410.3912.792756474TT0.288-73.71222360.9665817435939.4875449852760.427244809839551621151210WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.57630.54231.559112.627840362861.0011816432.35118164310.3912.741181643TT0.576-73.42422362.9048260638240.8731868168290.439456675368841621151210WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2024114-17130.32628.8529.588112.739663573141.0043312512.34433125110.3912.734331251TT-1.674-76.67422362.9715624892340.9212918416530.346459538913921621151210WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:05FORECAST2024114-17130.75828.36429.561113.32303054741.0106304672.51063046710.3912.900630467TT-1.242-76.24222363.3194104224541.1724566457650.363797423611851621151210WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2024114-17130.70428.54429.624117.205545013680.9244099482.40440994810.3912.794409948TT-1.296-82.29622365.6213780726142.8528528856550.361614010666361621151210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2024114-17130.27228.61629.444117.747284843390.9870084072.54700840710.3912.937008407TT-1.728-82.72822365.9407781078943.0885330356830.344313858478691621151210WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2024114-17130.25428.05829.156118.004490871751.0122052712.58220527110.3912.972205271TT-1.746-83.74622366.0922683458843.2005317382390.343599738988061621151210WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024114-17131.80229.22830.515117.255007398410.7527563122.16275631210.3912.552756312TT-0.198-81.19822365.6505584381342.8743589348960.406800316789131621151210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2024114-17131.56828.97630.272116.605126379940.6937011621.97370116210.3912.363701162TT-0.432-82.43222365.2668682077442.5919893297680.397042920764831621151210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2024114-17133.0829.89431.487117.582849529230.8940949712.31409497110.3912.704094971TT1.08-79.9222365.8438764627443.016965477310.460959757210361621151210WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.84629.82231.334116.089162385220.783464992.313464999.9812.29346499TT0.846-85.15422364.9617913296242.3681086580650.450958090654981621151210WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:03FORECAST2024114-17131.80228.97630.389116.062967505750.7358271692.2058271699.9812.185827169TT-0.198-88.19822364.9462922717342.3567496612760.406800316789131621151210WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2024114-17133.60229.78631.694115.671191878080.9677170582.1577170589.9812.137717058TT1.602-86.39822364.7143623068842.1869449830920.483351016981541621151210WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024114-17133.51229.28231.397115.020397382560.8578744791.8478744799.9811.827874479TT1.512-88.48822364.3285834842641.9052184501850.479484723948481621151210WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2024114-17136.08629.9333.008114.415511583510.8389768311.8389768319.9711.808976831TT4.086-81.91422363.9694462202841.643750390060.589410287258371631151212.5WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:06FORECAST2024114-17134.10628.99431.55114.680238313140.7984256281.74842562810.0211.768425628TT2.106-84.89422364.1266896316341.758135543130.505020891580561631151212.5WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024114-17133.13428.16630.65109.446110069480.3484253851.2284253859.7610.988425385TT1.134-90.86622360.997995516239.5098263521290.46327157976754162114128WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.39629.13830.767109.210516290110.3507875911.2407875919.7110.950787591TT0.396-91.60422360.8561889893539.409290706010.43181674618451162114128WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.68429.5731.127109.24519035350.3795277641.1295277649.911.029527764TT0.684-88.31622360.8770650212539.4240836624580.44405166846223162114128WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024114-17133.9831.0132.495114.567553636980.6464570421.31645704210.0111.326457042TT1.98-85.0222364.0597696739841.7094371891880.499602313497761631141210WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:06FORECAST2024114-17134.50230.16432.333115.530749519880.7622051361.38220513610.0411.422205136TT2.502-84.49822364.6311646507142.1261117504050.522040034277641631141210WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024114-17135.70831.42433.566113.663993052260.6314964041.1514964049.9111.061496404TT3.708-81.29222363.5224797671441.3194166145920.573495338263421631141210WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2024114-17133.94431.38832.666111.269846847190.7885831031.72858310310.0811.808583103TT1.944-89.05622362.0928568217440.2900167230170.498054118089621621151210WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024114-17133.74630.0231.883112.294904275530.8421264391.8321264399.9911.822126439TT1.746-92.25422362.7060165439440.7300374079610.4895401922361621151210WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2024114-17133.13428.8530.992111.455392029820.6822838331.6622838339.9911.652283833TT1.134-91.86622362.2039629521640.3695846855870.463271579767541621151210WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024114-17133.27828.8531.064115.801230017860.3988191131.44881911310.2211.668819113TT1.278-93.72222364.791370075942.2432893546890.46944229581219162114128WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:07FORECAST2024114-17132.928.52630.713117.066714634650.4224411731.56244117310.2811.842441173TT0.9-94.122365.5394554133242.7925031145770.453263640383751621151210WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:06FORECAST2024114-17134.21428.92231.568120.161352492350.6562995672.04629956710.5212.566299567TT2.214-92.78622367.3587381336244.1423228240180.509664687767121631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2024114-17134.21429.64231.928125.982483363280.4543309542.20433095410.9413.144330954TT2.214-94.78622370.7423694342746.7070443893170.509664687767121631151212.5WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.91828.8530.884125.709578182280.4350396052.16503960510.913.065039605TT0.918-96.08222370.5848539118646.5860656660010.45403251106391621151210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024114-17133.94429.78631.865125.171403070660.4500002431.84000024311.2813.120000243TT1.944-93.05622370.2739096358846.3477047895830.498054118089621621151210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2024114-17133.11628.52630.821125.119451657860.299212761.2092127611.4412.64921276TT1.116-95.88422370.2438708916846.3247101056520.46250083052378162114128WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2024114-17133.38629.24631.316123.890125857730.2885828331.12858283311.2512.378582833TT1.386-94.61422369.5319064953645.7813544041560.47407523612736162114128WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024114-17133.60228.2230.911124.9495843870.2724410921.32244109211.3412.662441092TT1.602-93.39822370.1456245319946.2495419479390.48335101698154162114128WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2024114-17136.10429.8432.972125.743450633840.1374016491.54740164911.4212.967401649TT4.104-88.89622370.604410362646.6010773791140.590164701239951631151212.5WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024114-17135.56429.332.432124.906585030590.0633858611.34338586111.412.743385861TT3.564-90.43622370.1207482129646.2305187082470.567399391359751631141210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2024114-17133.5329.28231.406125.179138763940.3909450931.53094509311.1712.700945093TT1.53-93.4722370.2783821398146.3511289791680.480257839825091621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024114-17134.17829.22831.703128.302165355120.448819141.4688191412.2113.67881914TT2.178-87.82222372.0768452141347.7382649194750.508116870162341631141210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:07FORECAST2024114-17132.39629.2130.803131.611901055150.4586616651.45866166512.8314.288661665TT0.396-92.60422373.9673217103549.2185501428020.43181674618451162114128WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024114-17130.77626.6928.733132.958219851340.2472442281.47724422812.7514.227244228TT-1.224-102.22422374.7317851923249.8236710808860.36452621553424162114128WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024114-17131.40629.91230.659139.095963119790.6114176531.81141765313.0114.821417653TT-0.594-94.59422378.1839687193952.6038633654870.390324953408641621151210WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024114-17131.31628.70630.011138.285116926030.6267719921.74677199213.1714.916771992TT-0.684-95.68422377.7309864043152.2345736215040.386606707056651621151210WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024114-17132.43228.86830.65143.628447556741.0271659092.72716590912.6415.367165909TT0.432-95.56822380.6989471944654.6791987720270.433342788022471621151210WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024114-17132.927.69830.299138.332307786310.6031499322.09314993212.6314.723149932TT0.9-91.122377.7573753342452.2560495132840.453263640383751621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024114-17132.37827.84230.11141.131205848960.5456695862.12566958612.9915.115669586TT0.378-98.62222379.3168635931353.5334463577450.431054105132041621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024114-17133.96228.90431.433135.268850343320.47244121.242441213.0914.3324412TT1.962-87.03822376.037723742350.8661905763390.49882821358776162114128WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2024114-17135.16830.232.684133.434248440350.5940948091.24409480911.8913.134094809TT3.168-84.83222375.0014576313250.038037663070.550556928229241631141210WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024114-17134.48428.59831.541133.156325981810.594488511.2444885112.1613.40448851TT2.484-74.51622374.8440528623449.9128568952810.521267073410211631141210WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2024114-17135.09628.27431.685133.785311572420.7940949171.24409491712.1313.374094917TT3.096-86.90422375.2001277505150.1962659931130.547483934456471631141210WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024114-17135.38429.33632.36128.377460426530.3791340630.96913406311.4112.379134063TT3.384-77.61622372.1200296457347.7718243797640.55975700899555163113127.5WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024114-17136.48229.7533.116130.943734055250.389763990.9797639911.4612.43976399TT4.482-85.51822373.5869529897548.9188706188010.60592622669996163113127.5WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2024114-17136.10428.90432.504132.172128985770.6720476071.29204760710.9412.232047607TT4.104-88.89622374.285746586749.470143975390.590164701239951631141210WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024114-17130.8322.80226.816124.78568824250.1370079480.55700794810.3510.907007948TT-1.17-98.1722370.0507915114146.1770427034340.36671552038544162113126WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024114-17130.93822.83826.888120.015523857320.1661418220.6061418229.8310.436141822TT-1.062-83.06222367.2733287420344.0785009477960.37110709253016162113126WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:05FORECAST2024114-17132.16230.0231.091119.54032820260.0141732360.9541732369.3110.264173236TT0.162-85.83822366.9947949893643.8706782416750.42192324875402162113126WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2024114-17137.32835.76236.545114.6628162989300.559.149.69TT5.328-78.67222364.1163444858241.7506055192140.64054497007955163113127.5WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2024114-17133.92632.70233.314115.448072013800.549.069.6TT1.926-95.07422364.5821728494342.090308946070.49728002991784162113126WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024114-17129.69629.26429.48132.910339370650.145669372.1156693710.112.21566937TT-2.304-92.30422374.704642622349.8021212146890.321749430532171621151210WETL