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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 21, 2024

[ Saturday, January 20, 2024 | Index | Today | Monday, January 22, 2024 ]

DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2024, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2024 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.496
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -72

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.32 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 38.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-01-22 07:00:04OBSERVATION2024113-17233.5800430.9000232.24003106.510613750.850000000000021.6410.4712.11TT1.58004-72.4199621358.31632414738 38.1644916015810.4960480844604616 21151210WETL
2024-01-22 03:00:04OBSERVATION2024113-17233.5800430.9000232.24003106.510613750.850000000000021.6410.4712.11TT1.58004-72.4199621358.31632414738 38.1644916015810.4960480844604616 21151210WETL
2024-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2024113-17232.1828.20230.191109.492041075021.1204730461.91047304610.4712.380473046TT0.18-73.8221360.1237970185339.4306895752450.43497936176381621151210WETL
2024-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2024113-17230.61426.54628.58109.361685192611.1129927271.90299272710.4712.372992727TT-1.386-75.38621360.0450553454639.3751339978470.368530308869891621151210WETL
2024-01-21 03:00:05FORECAST2024113-17230.99227.30229.147109.850101949621.2748038382.06480383810.4712.534803838TT-1.008-75.00821360.3399501329539.5833802586250.384294174033521621151210WETL
2024-01-20 23:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.98227.89629.939113.90402581541.1531502292.04315022910.4712.513150229TT-0.018000000000001-81.01821362.7735472002641.3213674854430.42643306683191621151210WETL
2024-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2024113-17232.25227.98630.119114.195566738421.2291345222.11913452210.4712.589134522TT0.252-80.74821362.9475971661141.4470065547330.438094870687541621151210WETL
2024-01-20 15:00:01FORECAST2024113-17231.3727.17629.273114.311632315521.2374022432.12740224310.4712.597402243TT-0.63-81.6321363.0168524681641.4970489636760.400251731534861621151210WETL
2024-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.62227.96829.795114.620984009911.082677751.9726777510.4712.44267775TT-0.378-81.37821363.2013401869241.6304950059420.41098519086931621151210WETL
2024-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2024113-17231.71227.57229.642114.165818982171.0094493641.83944936410.4712.309449364TT-0.288-82.28821362.929843656141.4341828340710.414835226549331621151210WETL
2024-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2024113-17232.48628.86830.677114.519163572631.1204730461.98047304610.4712.450473046TT0.486-80.51421363.1406336519441.5865616250540.448245815810261621151210WETL
2024-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.86428.6730.767113.202639417361.3488196261.67881962610.4712.148819626TT0.864-86.13621362.3542910348641.0194621493510.464712446936971621151210WETL
2024-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.92827.91429.921113.254544967631.3122054331.62220543310.4712.092205433TT-0.071999999999999-88.07221362.3853433571241.0417871648510.424108065917351621151210WETL
2024-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.83828.29230.065112.169907912311.1070872121.33708721210.4711.807087212TT-0.162-88.16221361.7356110428140.5758501792770.42023896536754162114128WETL
2024-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2024113-17230.88427.6829.282111.90885017460.9401579881.14015798810.4711.610157988TT-1.116-90.11621361.5789616580740.4638858464790.37976935955786162114128WETL
2024-01-19 07:00:04FORECAST2024113-17232.61229.08430.848111.631787143780.9460635031.13606350310.4711.606063503TT0.612-86.38821361.4125945345840.3451338241660.45372621377873162114128WETL
2024-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2024113-17232.10828.4930.299111.767472910890.9161422271.13614222710.4711.606142227TT0.108-86.89221361.49408394840.4032802351070.43186788410045162114128WETL
2024-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2024113-17231.3727.69829.534108.08074553810.8157484721.13574847210.1411.275748472TT-0.63-91.6321359.2699133435938.8301600835820.40025173153486162114128WETL
2024-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2024113-17231.67627.75229.714107.795877085140.8358272231.09582722310.1411.235827223TT-0.324-92.32421359.0971862750438.7091961533250.413294208643162114128WETL
2024-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2024113-17231.83828.14829.993107.74678781710.7503941061.15039410610.1411.290394106TT-0.162-89.16221359.0674088741138.6883599159940.42023896536754162114128WETL
2024-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.39629.78631.091112.169049892030.6724413081.18244130810.1411.322441308TT0.396-86.60421361.735096352340.5754820704410.44433722205704162114128WETL
2024-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2024113-17233.24228.29230.767112.744983852320.6106302511.11063025110.1911.300630251TT1.242-86.75821362.0803228657240.8227401547370.48123974145594162114128WETL
2024-01-18 03:00:06FORECAST2024113-17234.23230.0232.126111.540420299390.4562994590.99629945910.0711.066299459TT2.232-84.76821361.3577061115440.3059904181040.524605693165561631141210WETL
2024-01-17 23:00:04FORECAST2024113-17234.28630.4732.378108.126265514020.4350396051.34503960510.3111.655039605TT2.286-90.71421359.2975023355538.8494971360580.526967389137421631141210WETL
2024-01-17 19:00:04FORECAST2024113-17233.96229.06631.514108.746813870160.4889766421.39897664210.2211.618976642TT1.962-94.03821359.6732896458739.1133242831870.512785899417241631141210WETL
2024-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2024113-17233.00829.53431.271108.544922115260.4456695321.35566953210.2511.605669532TT1.008-92.99221359.5510944555139.0274455441290.47100293951991162114128WETL
2024-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2024113-17231.98230.48831.235114.12177499640.507874291.5478742910.3611.90787429TT-0.018000000000001-95.01821362.9035556692441.415197925480.42643306683191621151210WETL
2024-01-17 07:00:06FORECAST2024113-17231.87429.44430.659115.210202036240.4814963231.65149632310.4112.061496323TT-0.126-95.12621363.5523307228141.8849374733210.421785702967761621151210WETL
2024-01-17 03:00:06FORECAST2024113-17232.95429.1231.037117.436359048690.7771657741.96716577410.5812.547165774TT0.954-95.04621364.8736959692942.8494383672730.46864307185821621151210WETL
2024-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.12628.92230.524123.883906003740.9307091642.36070916410.9713.330709164TT0.126-96.87421368.6588352102445.6708964886330.432645365229361621151210WETL
2024-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.87428.430.137123.618392510590.9248036492.34480364910.9313.274803649TT-0.126-97.12621368.5041818456645.5538945931910.421785702967761621151210WETL
2024-01-16 15:00:04FORECAST2024113-17233.06230.03831.55123.13209620190.6921263582.17212635811.1413.312126358TT1.062-94.93821368.2206587563245.3397815775120.473363825822591621151210WETL
2024-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2024113-17231.83828.77830.308123.718330505640.2740158961.62401589611.3712.994015896TT-0.162-97.16221368.5624048652845.5979254170750.420238965367541621151210WETL
2024-01-16 07:00:05FORECAST2024113-17232.43228.81430.623122.519272177710.0688976751.58889767511.1412.728897675TT0.432-95.56821367.8628676984545.070290811620.445900031878781621151210WETL
2024-01-16 03:00:06FORECAST2024113-17231.53227.93229.732123.590251070020.3090552851.70905528511.3213.029055285TT-0.468-95.46821368.4877842165145.5414977675520.40714370925241621151210WETL
2024-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2024113-17232.10829.51630.812125.142008806870.8519689641.98196896411.4913.471968964TT0.108-92.89221369.3902247187146.2262347549210.431867884100451621151210WETL
2024-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2024113-17233.04428.8530.947124.713978691890.8161421731.75614217311.5613.316142173TT1.044-93.95621369.1416545948246.0371244454270.47257675564061621151210WETL
2024-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.25228.81430.533123.155109426760.6177168691.54771686911.412.947716869TT0.252-94.74821368.2340839462545.3499089030630.438094870687541621151210WETL
2024-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2024113-17232.75628.95830.857126.005654641760.4413388211.61133882112.2613.871338821TT0.756-90.24421369.8909481590746.6083510688440.46000027182721621151210WETL
2024-01-15 07:00:07FORECAST2024113-17231.56828.74230.155129.17563029670.4374018111.58740181112.8814.467401811TT-0.432-93.43221371.7194461712848.0170937527170.408679252605981621151210WETL
2024-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2024113-17229.22826.4227.824131.535273276840.5842522841.87425228412.7514.624252284TT-2.772-100.77221373.0710034551849.0719963911410.312769591944171621151210WETL
2024-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.3629.60630.983135.373528754410.641732631.9517326312.914.85173263TT0.36-93.6421375.25224937550.7992211709220.442775277115631621151210WETL
2024-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2024113-17230.68628.52629.606134.394588143990.6244097861.85440978613.0814.934409786TT-1.314-95.31421374.697944849750.3573759764740.37151686531411621151210WETL
2024-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2024113-17230.90228.25629.579137.37794093741.0031501482.46315014812.5214.983150148TT-1.098-96.09821376.3829144819351.7067097955450.380522372196831621151210WETL
2024-01-14 11:00:05FORECAST2024113-17231.67628.47230.074134.70344740030.8637799942.21377999412.5514.763779994TT-0.324-92.32421374.8729787561850.4966825756780.4132942086431621151210WETL
2024-01-14 07:00:07FORECAST2024113-17231.69428.3130.002137.755388849050.8870083532.29700835312.9115.207008353TT-0.306-99.30621376.5951850616551.8780161568480.414064552234111621151210WETL
2024-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2024113-17232.52230.05631.289132.369697789220.4633860771.27338607713.2314.503386077TT0.522-89.47821373.5470100212949.4463048265830.4498106828649162114128WETL
2024-01-13 23:00:05FORECAST2024113-17233.5330.57832.054129.530705482420.3842521761.11425217612.0713.184252176TT1.53-88.4721371.9233444099448.1754931867990.49385517174707162114128WETL
2024-01-13 19:00:04FORECAST2024113-17231.98229.330.641129.032925591640.3842521761.13425217612.3213.454252176TT-0.018000000000001-77.01821371.6374476569547.9534671305870.4264330668319162114128WETL
2024-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2024113-17231.94629.10230.524129.95316482950.2685040820.95850408212.2613.218504082TT-0.053999999999998-90.05421372.1656978723548.3641102794920.42488277700488162113126WETL
2024-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2024113-17232.39630.16431.28125.932995855650.3657482290.72574822911.9112.635748229TT0.396-80.60421369.8488644490946.5761755138850.44433722205704162113126WETL
2024-01-13 07:00:08FORECAST2024113-17232.73830.09231.415128.511059185750.3799214650.72992146511.9612.689921465TT0.738-90.26221371.3373285754247.7209534104350.45921543714263162113126WETL
2024-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2024113-17233.63829.28231.46127.486361000680.5035435790.78354357911.4212.203543579TT1.638-93.36221370.7468782865347.2651703651120.49858822178332162113126WETL
2024-01-12 23:00:04FORECAST2024113-17234.39431.42432.909123.600517498350.3724411460.63244114610.7811.412441146TT2.394-96.60621368.4937664584645.5460202291820.53168785571353163113127.5WETL
2024-01-12 19:00:04FORECAST2024113-17234.5231.56833.044118.579013347550.3685041360.63850413610.2710.908504136TT2.52-82.4821365.5490374696943.3464441933040.53718939485123163113127.5WETL
2024-01-12 15:00:05FORECAST2024113-17236.24832.61234.43119.433072826220.8196854821.4696854829.4210.889685482TT4.248-85.75221366.0525326698743.7187787925820.611484149824871631141210WETL
2024-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2024113-17240.74832.21636.482114.851055498930.4098427411.1398427419.1910.329842741TT8.748-84.25221363.3384536938541.7298049100860.781596559088331641141212WETL
2024-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2024113-17238.15629.67833.917115.49983041380.4098427411.1298427419.1110.239842741TT6.156-96.84421363.7246666125742.0101373110690.688923848480961631141210WETL
2024-01-12 03:00:08FORECAST2024113-17235.07830.16432.621131.5376794271.5220480662.33204806610.3812.712048066TT3.078-89.92221373.0723775206949.0730747973840.561453683686291631151212.5WETL
2024-01-11 23:00:05FORECAST2024113-17232.30628.95830.632124.67682304050.2161418490.58614184910.7811.366141849TT0.306-92.69421369.120064426146.020716953150.44043403369485162113126WETL
2024-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2024113-17232.30628.95830.632120.821089921770.2161418490.56614184910.7311.296141849TT0.306-88.69421366.8684864268144.3254503880380.44043403369485162113126WETL
2024-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2024113-17231.17221.52426.348117.3710172416700.3210.0210.34TT-0.828-93.82821364.8350178058442.8210571652550.39187039313486162112124WETL
2024-01-11 11:00:04FORECAST2024113-17230.12828.11229.12126.274052507830.0500000271.0700000279.8710.940000027TT-1.872-106.87221370.0463359298746.7272504535380.34858631266361162114128WETL
2024-01-11 07:00:07FORECAST2024113-17229.08426.38427.734118.288650541890.0500000271.0700000279.7510.820000027TT-2.916-109.91621365.3776104253543.2200244754360.30718853170925162114128WETL
2024-01-11 03:00:09FORECAST2024113-17227.84227.7727.806128.526516783610.0956693432.1756693438.6610.835669343TT-4.158-114.15821371.3462237720547.727836662170.260991523474991621151210WETL